Posted 16 February 2012 - 11:30 PM
what a load of old codswallop Now, now, no need to get your handbag out!
speculation is 1000s of years old, human nature is not going top be changed by the internet Indeed, my point was that the internet allows a great many more (mostly stupid) people to indulge it it - creating bubble after bubble that seem to defy gravity.
what you seem to be implying is that the internet makes for a more efficient market with more informed participants which is patently untrue given that we have just also suffered the biggest credit crunch in human history Why? Um, no, I implied nothing of the sort. What I was saying is lots of people bought lots of shiny things they never even realised they existed, or indeed never would have done if they did not have it rammed down their throats 24/7. Did that happen in the 70s in anyway near the same level? Was the technology there to do it?
what can be overvalued in the age of the internet can also be undervalued in the age of the internet Oh really? So, if I want to sell my house and I advertise in my local rag and supermarket in 1990, it will reach mainly local people, possibly some who are taking an interest in moving to my town. In 2012, I have an audience of basically anyone who has the internet anywhere in the world. A much larger audience I am sure you will agree. Add in the constant bull about 'property only evey goes up', and 'invest now' etc, and what do you think the result will be? If I have an audience of say 40 million, I am far more likey to find some deranged idiot to pay my made up asking price that the perhaos 10000 people who would have seen the advert for my house in 1990.
what about Northern Ireland? Japan? More great examples of 'information rich, but very stupid' buyers piling in and wreaking havoc. Can you imagine what the Tulip bubble would have been like if they had had the internet back then? More or less horrendous?
and if everybody was so well financially informed - why oh were the trading volumes for the stockmarket so low in early 2009? why were almost everybody I met giving me funny looks for me buying up shares by the bucketload? When did I say that they were well informed?? I said they were exposed to hype and b*llcrap like never before. They jump on any bandwagon that looks enticing - something people have always done. My poiunt was people are exposed to a lot more of that thanks to the explosion in information available to them - I never said there was any intelligence to the choices they make!
you provide no evidence for your assertion, which remains just that, an assertion without foundation Indeed, which is why I used the magic words ' I personally don't believe',and 'in my opinion'. Did you actually read what I wrote before you made you mind up? It is based on my experiences in every single collectable market I ever dealt in from 1998 to 2010 - without exception prices went completely insane in that time as more and more people became aware and jumped on the bandwagon 'as an investment don't you know'. In 1980, you could buy an ex SBS Rolex 5517 as Navy surplus from my local 'odds and ends' store. They used to sell them for around £100 as 'just another watch'. In 1995 they were selling for maybe £10k? Now they are £85 to £100k. Go figure. Competion for the 'must have' classic watch has driven the prices insane. ARe they 'worth' £100k? If enough people see it, you will it seems find someone who thinks so.
house prices are toast OK, if you are sure. I believe that would be an assertion, without foundation!
I have to say I don't understand why you have to be so unpleasent in your reply. You clearly misunderstood what I was trying to say, and simply saw what you wanted to see, another 'House Price Crash Unbeliever'. I don't like things as they are any more than you do - but the information revolution is here to stay, and it is having a massive impact. Please try and be civil in your replies. Treat others as you would have them treat you.
This post has been edited by vlad the impaler: 16 February 2012 - 11:34 PM
"[We] are enmeshed in the cancerous discipline of security. And in the worship of security we fling our lives beneath the wheels of routine - and before we know it our lives are gone. What does a man need - really need? A few pounds of food each day, heat and shelter, six feet to lie down in - and some form of working activity that will yield a sense of accomplishment. That's all - in the material sense, and we know it. But we are brainwashed by our economic system until we end up in a tomb beneath a pyramid of time payments, mortgages, preposterous gadgetry, playthings that divert our attention for the sheer idiocy of the charade. The years thunder by, the dreams of youth grow dim where they lie caked in dust on the shelves of patience. Before we know it, the tomb is sealed. Where, then, lies the answer? In choice. Which shall it be: bankruptcy of purse or bankruptcy of life?" - Sterling Hayden
"Stop to consider how the so-called owners of the land got hold of it. They simply seized it by force, afterwards hiring lawyers to provide them with title-deeds. In the case of the enclosure of the common lands, which was going on from about 1600 to 1850, the land-grabbers did not even have the excuse of being foreign conquerors; they were quite frankly taking the heritage of their own countrymen, upon no sort of pretext except that they had the power to do so.
– George Orwell."