France Faces 40Pc House Price Slump

[davidg]

Regarding CH this article in the Tagsanzeiger sees an ongoing house price bubble, according to UBS

http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/wirtschaft/agenturen-ticker/Gefahr-einer-Immobilienblase-laut-UBS-weiter-gestiegen/story/14118384

and an interesting article in La Julie about the Merck Serono affair with some good comments

http://www.tdg.ch/economie/Le-fiasco-de-Merck-n-arretera-pas-Geneve/story/29983524

Edited May 4, 2012 by davidg

[winkie]

We paid a total of about 4k euros in legal fees and stamp duty on our French property purchase in 2007. We only paid 75k euros for the place though .

You can pick up some really nice cosy freehold places with a bit of land and a wood burning stove in many European countries for that, the equivalent in council tax is a fraction of what we pay in the UK, under £200 a year for all services in some places....the jobs and credit are harder to come by, that is why the property is such so called good value....the expensive places to live are only expensive either because of cash money or foreign credit.

[redwine]

Just my thoughts without double posting and quoting lots of posts.

Davidg is right in saying that there is an anti-frontalier problem with regards to the CHU in Geneva.

The Swiss BNP party or nationalist party won 27% of the votes at there last general elections.

Depending upon who you read it is said that there are 90,000 or 117,000 trans- frontaliers.

Having said that many believe that its just the french who cross the border to work there.

Wrong over a third are Swiss nationals who live in "holiday homes " here in France.

They use a PO address in Geneva as there Swiss home but they live here.

This brings me back to the heated debate on the famous "holiday home tax " that never was.

It wasn't just the Brits as many on here seemed to believe but the Swiss and Luxembourg and the 1 million french ex-pats who at the time were seen as potential tax payers.

As for campervanman's comments well i work .

There is no work in Brittany or the Poitou-Charente for me or for anyone from the UK who is thinking about going to live there.

You might be lucky though a job in a pig farm in Brittany.

Picking flowers in Poitou-Charente or farm labouring.

This does not mean that these regions are not nice or good for a holiday.

As for provence and i have just spent a week in Gordes during the easter holidays and house prices are very high there.

You pay for the sun in Provence.

[swissy_fit]

One to consider only if there are some lynchings then?

No-one lynched in Iceland, but prosecutions are in progress.

Plus every move since has been made with the people in mind, rather than the bankers. The exact opposite of the UK and every other nation that has found itself in this situation.

It may soon be the closest thing to a real democracy on the planet, and it's unlikely anyone will forget for a few generations so it'll be a while before bankers can weasel their way back in there.

If half the UK population had been stoning Parliament instead of watching X-factor when they bailed out the banks, it would have been a lot messier since, but the future would be brighter.

[Democorruptcy]

No-one lynched in Iceland, but prosecutions are in progress.

Plus every move since has been made with the people in mind, rather than the bankers. The exact opposite of the UK and every other nation that has found itself in this situation.

It may soon be the closest thing to a real democracy on the planet, and it's unlikely anyone will forget for a few generations so it'll be a while before bankers can weasel their way back in there.

If half the UK population had been stoning Parliament instead of watching X-factor when they bailed out the banks, it would have been a lot messier since, but the future would be brighter.

I agree with all that you say about Iceland.

The IMF are obviously going to have to try harder. They cannot have a country setting a bad example.

[@contradevian]

No-one lynched in Iceland, but prosecutions are in progress.

Plus every move since has been made with the people in mind, rather than the bankers. The exact opposite of the UK and every other nation that has found itself in this situation.

It may soon be the closest thing to a real democracy on the planet, and it's unlikely anyone will forget for a few generations so it'll be a while before bankers can weasel their way back in there.

If half the UK population had been stoning Parliament instead of watching X-factor when they bailed out the banks, it would have been a lot messier since, but the future would be brighter.

Or bank headquarters. Though I think the real trouble is yet to come. Not so much a case of "we are all in this together" as "THEY are all in it together."

I have to switch off QT and similar now as I find myself increasingly with the likes of Toynbee and the UK Uncut brigade. They are making virtually everyone else pay for this except those that caused it, and over leveraged "home owners" of course.

[crash2006]

No-one lynched in Iceland, but prosecutions are in progress.

Plus every move since has been made with the people in mind, rather than the bankers. The exact opposite of the UK and every other nation that has found itself in this situation.

It may soon be the closest thing to a real democracy on the planet, and it's unlikely anyone will forget for a few generations so it'll be a while before bankers can weasel their way back in there.

If half the UK population had been stoning Parliament instead of watching X-factor when they bailed out the banks, it would have been a lot messier since, but the future would be brighter.

Iceland went the other way because they knew that everyone else was not going to fall, best move they could make.

[Potte]

A few clouds on the GVA horizon though. In April 2014 frontaliers will have to join the French CMU scheme which will mean 8% extra in social security contributions. Currently frontaliers take out a private health insurance which is much less than joining either the French or Swiss government schemes.

The Swiss economy seems to be slowing down, I guess frontaliers will be in the front line for lay-offs, already quite a lot of announcements from banks and IT companies.

There is a big anti-frontalier head of steam building up in GVA. The head of the CHU has said no more frontaliers to be appointed to senior posts in the hospital.

CH depends to some extent on the EU economy which does not seem to have a great short term outlook.

The ONGs are having budgets slashed. The UN is moving a lot of staff out to places like Hungary and Kenya.

The banks are relocating some operations to places like Singapore as CH's position as a tax heaven is threatened.

I don't see Geneva prices crashing, too little building and far too much demand but things could be different on the French side esp if those frontaliers have CH mortages to service but are claiming FR dole checks.

You may get more stability in places that have good core industries, say Lyon with its pharma industry and where they can pick off CH IT contracts with cheap French labour.

Just been to look at some land on the French side and mentioned the CMU - cue some sheepish looks and a few "well nobody really knows and with Geneva being so close it wont effect prices". Made up my mind to sit tight renting for a while yet.

[Bruce Banner]

Just been to look at some land on the French side and mentioned the CMU - cue some sheepish looks and a few "well nobody really knows and with Geneva being so close it wont effect prices". Made up my mind to sit tight renting for a while yet.

Wherever we go in Europe (mostly France, Spain and UK) it's the same.

"Yes prices are dropping..... but not in this area because.....".

Sit tight and rent, good things come to those who wait .

[davidg]

My work colleagues (Swiss) are still buying property on the French side and telling me "prices never go down" and "Geneva is different, innit". Still I have colleagues who pegged their salaries at 1.35 so I don't ask them for investment advice.

[Potte]

My work colleagues (Swiss) are still buying property on the French side and telling me "prices never go down" and "Geneva is different, innit". Still I have colleagues who pegged their salaries at 1.35 so I don't ask them for investment advice.

I can't see anything but a big readjustment for Geneva:- bank secrecy/taxation rules changing making the location less attractive, commodities trading centres moving eastwards, some multinationals slimming down or pulling out, IO's facing tough budgets (in their perception of course!), crime rising (although still low). Add into that mix that Paris is a long way from the frontalier areas and it will be a double whammy there.

[PopGun]

How many people with 200 grand mortgages now would have got them 10 years ago in the UK?

Something to always bear in mind in any demand/build over the countryside debate.

[swissy_fit]

I can't see anything but a big readjustment for Geneva:- bank secrecy/taxation rules changing making the location less attractive, commodities trading centres moving eastwards, some multinationals slimming down or pulling out, IO's facing tough budgets (in their perception of course!), crime rising (although still low). Add into that mix that Paris is a long way from the frontalier areas and it will be a double whammy there.

Geneva is pricing itself out. It all looks OK for the moment, but in the end manufacturing will move. It's started - see Merck Serono.

Geneva wil become a city of banks and international organisations, the state employees and Portuguese cleaners plus some illegals, no industry will be left.

We're building a huge plant in Hungary, where factory operators will be paid about 300 Euros a month, IT employees about 1000 Euros. Here the figures are close to 30 times that for the factory operator and 10 - 20 times that for IT depending on the situation - how long do you think that situation will last?

[Potte]

Geneva is pricing itself out. It all looks OK for the moment, but in the end manufacturing will move. It's started - see Merck Serono.

Geneva wil become a city of banks and international organisations, the state employees and Portuguese cleaners plus some illegals, no industry will be left.

We're building a huge plant in Hungary, where factory operators will be paid about 300 Euros a month, IT employees about 1000 Euros. Here the figures are close to 30 times that for the factory operator and 10 - 20 times that for IT depending on the situation - how long do you think that situation will last?

The International Organisations have already announced some role reductions in Geneva -WHO 300 and the ILO were trying but have been blocked by the Unions/works councils at the moment. It will be interesting once the budget contribution rules are renegotiated - currently the UK pays more than twice as much as China!! Its fair to say that the BRICS will not likely agree to increase their contributions to support hundreds, if not thousands of roles, in one of the most expensive locations in the world that could easily be relocated.

The current spate of tax agreements and banking confidentiality changes will also probably begin to impact on Geneva.

[Deckard]

Geneva wil become a city of banks and international organisations, the state employees and Portuguese cleaners plus some illegals, no industry will be left.

Maybe they are aiming to host the 2016 olympics

[redwine]

Just been to look at some land on the French side and mentioned the CMU - cue some sheepish looks and a few "well nobody really knows .

Switzerland signed a treaty with the EU on the 21/6/99 that came into effect on the 1/5/2002.

The treaty for the "free movement of persons" one of the articles in the treaty states that the frontaliers have a date limit the 31/5/2014.

They have a choice of either joining the Swiss healthcare system the AML or the French CMU.

The aim of this is to stop a form of "healthcare social dumping".

Private healthcare is cheaper for a frontalier but only if they are not suffering from a long term illness.

Then they pay alot more!

Today even though they are french but work in Switzerland they pay nothing into the CMU but when things go wrong they just change to the french public system.

The Swiss public system is more expensive than the french having said that the Swiss who live in France do the same thing they also pay nothing into there public health system.

Well everybody really knows and have known about this since 2002.

Nothing new is it.

[jammo]

You can pick up some really nice cosy freehold places with a bit of land and a wood burning stove in many European countries for that, the equivalent in council tax is a fraction of what we pay in the UK, under £200 a year for all services in some places....

That's incredible! £200 per year. How often do they get the rubbish collected? Are we comparing like for like services here?

[OnlyMe]

That's incredible! £200 per year. How often do they get the rubbish collected? Are we comparing like for like services here?

Villages have large communal wheelie bins, you just drive or walk down withthe bags and dump them in, weekly collections I think though not sure. Most liley to have a septic fosse, which of course you have to sort out, havae to be careful what products you clean the bog with and use for cleaning otheriwise you'll kill the bacteria, basically you pay to have the fose pumped out when full.

[Bruce Banner]

A massive volcano wiped out the first Greek civilsation, the Minoans. Wasn't that long ago in geological terms.

A GP friend of mine reckons it was AIDS that wiped out the ancient Greeks.

[Potte]

Switzerland signed a treaty with the EU on the 21/6/99 that came into effect on the 1/5/2002.

The treaty for the "free movement of persons" one of the articles in the treaty states that the frontaliers have a date limit the 31/5/2014.

They have a choice of either joining the Swiss healthcare system the AML or the French CMU.

The aim of this is to stop a form of "healthcare social dumping".

Private healthcare is cheaper for a frontalier but only if they are not suffering from a long term illness.

Then they pay alot more!

Today even though they are french but work in Switzerland they pay nothing into the CMU but when things go wrong they just change to the french public system.

The Swiss public system is more expensive than the french having said that the Swiss who live in France do the same thing they also pay nothing into there public health system.

Well everybody really knows and have known about this since 2002.

Nothing new is it.

All factually correct but not many people are aware of this which obviously has an impact on house prices in frontalier areas.

[redwine]

All factually correct but not many people are aware of this which obviously has an impact on house prices in frontalier areas.

They are very much aware of this so much so that four local MPs went to Paris last May to ask the parliament to put an end to the changes but only for health-care .

If you are in the region why don't you pop into what is called the 'groupement transfrontaliers' at 50 rue de genéve in Annemasse.

They started a petition on the 20/03/12 once they have enough signatures they will send it to parliament

This is really comic

They don't want to pay anything into there own national public health service.

But they are also crying because they will have to pay for private health 'top ups' just like millions of french already pay into!

They forgot to mention that the locals on the french side don't earn the same wages as a frontalier but they have to pay.

I remember in 2006 when they frontaliers got there 'knickers in a twist' when the g'vt stopped there 20% tax reduction just because they were frontaliers.

The Swiss who live in France in there 'all year round holiday homes' this is so that they don't declare there income in France.

Will probably have to pay for the cmu and the aml.

Due to the fact that if they are taken to a french hospital the french will just send them the bill.

This also means that they can still keep there local doctor on the swiss side of the border.

A maternity in France costs 4,000 euros compared to 10,000 in Switzerland.

Having said this its not because the 129,441 frontaliers and the border is not just the Geneva region will have to pay national health insurance ;

Just like everybody else does.

That this will have an impact on the property market.