Elizabeth Posted June 5, 2008 Share Posted June 5, 2008 Just a little poll to check out buying sentiment. Contrarian is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ginger Winger Posted June 5, 2008 Share Posted June 5, 2008 I think 18 months time but voted for 2 years I think the market will move quicker than in the 1990's because of the size of the disconnect between prices and earnings this time round, the size of BTL market, the effect of information about prices etc on the internet and finally the rapid departure of all the sub prime lenders and specilist lenders. The repossession numbers will be lower in part due to BMV buyer stepping in but possession proceeding will be higher than in the 1990s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normal Posted June 5, 2008 Share Posted June 5, 2008 I think 18 months time but voted for 2 years Voted having thought 18 months, then saw this comment. I think Xmas '09 will be very quiet on the market and you'll have a good chance of haggling more off than you think before the "spring bounce". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrcutegurlzz Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 I put 2012 because daly I think this is going to drag on and on. Its going to be painful but I think prices will continue to drop for 4 years. I'm just looking at the graph on the front of the HPC site and mentally extrapolating how long the crash lasted last time. Its like a giant game of chicken. Sad thing is this is my life im wasting. I just wish the boom haddened happended and that i could focus on having a life. Those evil BTL's have alot to awnser for. Anyone read Hitch hikers guide to the galaxy? It starts off with them trying to knock down aurther Dents House, and so Ford Prefect ?? Reasons with him to go to the pub on the grounds that he's going to lie in front of the bulldover, so his house is safe, and so on those grounds he might as well assume hes doing that etc etc and go to the pub. Not sure of the parralell, but why cant home owners understand that house prices are going to crash by 80% and by holding out they are hurting other people, like in a hostage situation, and so they had better sell now for 20% true value and alleviate the suffering of people like me, ELSE PAY THE TRUE COST OF OUR RATH!!! etc etc etc. Man, I want a spare room so I can build a masterbatorium for jerking off in with pictures of girls all over the walls and soothing jerking off music and plasma screens showning el neato porn feeds etc etc, and web cams and a hot line to the Escort Agency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
levoleurdefruits Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 You guys are staring into the tea leaves which is fine to a point. But IMHO if you need somewhere to live then the right time to buy a house is now while sellers are spooked & before inflation dents your cash savings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Little Professor Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 The decline will last five years min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normal Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 You guys are staring into the tea leaves which is fine to a point. But IMHO if you need somewhere to live then the right time to buy a house is now while sellers are spooked & before inflation dents your cash savings. I must admit, that is one of my biggest worries. Having no real assets could be a big mistake if inflation takes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huw Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 I said three years, not because I think things will be on the up by then, but because renting will mean the possibility of being evicted and having to abandon food crops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 I have gone for 2 years but thats a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickolarge Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 Voted having thought 18 months, then saw this comment. I think Xmas '09 will be very quiet on the market and you'll have a good chance of haggling more off than you think before the "spring bounce". I think you can forget the idea of any kind of bounce before 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickolarge Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 You guys are staring into the tea leaves which is fine to a point. But IMHO if you need somewhere to live then the right time to buy a house is now while sellers are spooked & before inflation dents your cash savings. Sellers may be spooked but they are not slashing prices accordingly. If you need somwhere to live, rent. If you are worried about inflation either look for a good investment (which involves a bit of work) or go out and blow your savings while they are still worth something . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Hovis Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 Based on the last GC I thought 6 years but the BTL-effect has made me think it will be quicker. I went for 4 but, like the vulture fund poll, there's a lot of bias inherent in the banding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle_monty Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 3-5 years. After the initial downward lurch (15-20% this year), this will be a long, slow and painful correction. In the end I fully expect to see a 50-70% HPC. Monty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Hovis Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 Man, I want a spare room so I can build a masterbatorium for jerking off in with pictures of girls all over the walls and soothing jerking off music and plasma screens showning el neato porn feeds etc etc, and web cams and a hot line to the Escort Agency. More tea vicar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stop The Ride Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 About 1996, I reckon. Missed that one, so I'll review in 2 years and see if it looks like there's much more drop left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backseat Economist Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 Will take about three years to get back to some sort of sensible multiple and then at least another three years to deal with the fallout to the wider economy. I really have got 2014/15 pencilled in as the time to start looking. Anyone who thinks this is gonna last a couple of yrs tops is deluding themselves. But armageddon will be avoided - 99.96% guaranteed. GT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Second Time Around Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 3-5 years. After the initial downward lurch (15-20% this year), this will be a long, slow and painful correction. In the end I fully expect to see a 50-70% HPC.Monty Agreed. We (Mrs STA and I) have built a strategy around buying at the bottom of the market whatever that is. I can't see that happening in the next three years; 2012/3 is likely to be the earliest time to start thinking about buying based on previous crashes, but it could be a much longer process than last time. We are happy to wait longer as the prices will go down further and will enable us to buy cheaper and have more cash to spare for our retirement. I am still thinking about a 40-50% nominal price correction is likely, but am slowly adjusting to the idea it could be worse than this and we will see an unprecedented collapse in residential property prices as a result of a Depression, but it is difficult to predict all the policy responses and how people are likely to respond at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 Obviously, the time to buy will be when the banks have got mortgages on offer. Then the HPI will start again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 I said years ago: 2010-2013.Why change a good forecast? You're being a bit selective with your forecasts there DrB. You used to argue that 2006 would be a good time to buy. " buy investment property in the south east if 10% gross yield occurs"How likely is that? I reckon you will need to wait for 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elizabeth Posted June 6, 2008 Author Share Posted June 6, 2008 (edited) Obviously, the time to buy will be when the banks have got mortgages on offer. Then the HPI will start again. Thats when some big economy (read Japan) wants to manage a deflationary programme and they start handing out 0% corporate money like sweeties again. I must admit, that is one of my biggest worries. Having no real assets could be a big mistake if inflation takes off. But that is the whole point about interest rates. Interest rates need to stay above inflation to manage money supply. So unless we had a hyperinflationary meltdown (of the Robert Mugabe murders 1/2 the pop, and gives all the farms to his urban mates hence starving the other 1/2, then rigs the election by so badly beating the two people left to vote that they can't turn up at the polling booth type) then what you will do is bung your money progressively into the highest interest rate account and it should stay just ahead of the inflationary figures - in 1987 I was getting 18% - anyway, don't worry, just go with the wave... Edited June 6, 2008 by Elizabeth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cartimandua51 Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 Am in the middle of buying. Have found a house we really like, can afford, mortgage free. Intend to be there 10-15 years. Sod the downturn, life's too short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elizabeth Posted June 6, 2008 Author Share Posted June 6, 2008 Am in the middle of buying. Have found a house we really like, can afford, mortgage free. Intend to be there 10-15 years. Sod the downturn, life's too short. Thats great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A.steve Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 Voted having thought 18 months, then saw this comment. I think 18 months for those who would otherwise be ready to buy now (i.e. have a substantial deposit ~50%) I expect the decline to be substantial and drawn out... I expect prices to fall in nominal terms for three years - though the lion's share will from now-on. Thereafter I expect prices to be flat or fall very slightly for a further 6 or 7 years. This means that for those who do not have substantial deposits, it will be best to wait for significantly longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbn Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 (edited) so I can build a masterbatorium for jerking off in I believe the correct terms are W4nkatorium or Masturbarium. Jizznasium is an acceptable regional variant Materbatorium just makes you sound stupid like. "You'll find the toiletlobby just through the hall - if you reach the cookchen you've gone too far" Please let's not get lazy with our wonderful language - It makes me SOOOO ANGRY Lots of people will be visiting this site now the HPC is underway - and we risk looking like a bunch of idiots who cant spell proper. Edited June 6, 2008 by sbn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiCasaSuCasa Posted June 6, 2008 Share Posted June 6, 2008 (edited) It's going to have to be when the last of the highly indebted come off their teaser-rate interest only mortgage deals - 3 years + from the peak...around winter 2010 (or spring 2011 when they get repossessed!) Edited June 6, 2008 by MiCasaSuCasa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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