Sensible Pricing In Edinburgh

[Muswell Hillbilly]

Thats a good point - depends on how many people were interested in it of course. The fact i will prob be a cash buyer ready to move asap and with no chain would prob balance this out though.

Yes, of course it totally depends on how many people are interested. In theory it’s a buyer’s market, but the shortage of supply at the moment is keeping prices inflated. I was affected by the 250K stamp duty threshold, as any half-decent flat round Bruntsfield and Marchmont currently sells quickly the moment the price is dropped to 250K fixed price, as at that point multiple buyers are interested. This threshold is maintaining prices at 250K, and not letting them fall further. Some flats are even selling for above this threshold – I was surprised to see that one on Spottiswoode Road recently went for the full asking price of 270K – although in general they just languish on the market until the price is dropped to 250K.

If you’re looking to buy in an area where there are more homes for sale, and you are not affected by any artificial price thresholds, then factors like being a cash buyer with no chain may well work in your favour.

[edinburgh-fred]

Yes, of course it totally depends on how many people are interested. In theory it’s a buyer’s market, but the shortage of supply at the moment is keeping prices inflated. I was affected by the 250K stamp duty threshold, as any half-decent flat round Bruntsfield and Marchmont currently sells quickly the moment the price is dropped to 250K fixed price, as at that point multiple buyers are interested. This threshold is maintaining prices at 250K, and not letting them fall further. Some flats are even selling for above this threshold – I was surprised to see that one on Spottiswoode Road recently went for the full asking price of 270K – although in general they just languish on the market until the price is dropped to 250K.

If you’re looking to buy in an area where there are more homes for sale, and you are not affected by any artificial price thresholds, then factors like being a cash buyer with no chain may well work in your favour.

Not getting why a stamp duty threshhold would maintain prices up at 250k...what's to stop them dropping lower once they get there?

Can see how it might tend to keep prices down towards 250k though.

EF

[edinburgh-fred]

I would only get them done if the needs was made and accepted subject to these surveys - revised offers are pretty common i imagine. Happened to my parents few years ago and they accepted the revised one in a snap. I think as long as its not a huge difference then the vast majority will be set with the sale and just accept it. Thing is the cash risk of doing this is the same as with getting any sort of survey done - you cant avoid it. Personally i think if you are gonna get it done - do it properly. I just think the positives far outweigh the negatives. The basic surveys people get done seem pretty pointless to me. The people doing them - as far as i am aware - dont have the knowledge to inform on all manner of things. I am talking about paying less than 1% of the purchase price to give me peace of mind for the next 5+ years - and it could possibly save me cash too. I cant be the only person with this plan ....

Quite interested in your scheme ccc... would you mind sharing which experts you'd have in mind for your 'survey' ?

I'm constantly underwhelmed by the lack of detail and disclaimers in standard home report surveys... they're so vague and caveated that they seem almost information free.

Also interested in the discussion on offers 'subject to survey'. This always seemed to be quite acceptable to sellers a few years back, even in a closing date situation. Does anyone have strong information that sellers no longer accept this?

EF

[ccc]

Quite interested in your scheme ccc... would you mind sharing which experts you'd have in mind for your 'survey' ?

I'm constantly underwhelmed by the lack of detail and disclaimers in standard home report surveys... they're so vague and caveated that they seem almost information free.

Also interested in the discussion on offers 'subject to survey'. This always seemed to be quite acceptable to sellers a few years back, even in a closing date situation. Does anyone have strong information that sellers no longer accept this?

EF

I think most sellers would accept any offer they could get these days !!

As for experts I got the idea of this site a few years back. I think someone linked a post to some blog and I thought it sounded a good idea. Can't really remember.

Was thinking:

Plumber/heating bod

Electrician

Rot specialist.

Roofer

Builder.

Reckon a few hours each should suffice. Recently got some plumbing work done and bloke charged about £40 for an hours work. don't see why a basic report should cost me any more than about £150 each for this sort of thing.

For example the roofer is just going to get up on his ladder and have a wee poke about. Then get into the attic and do the same from the inside. See no reason why that and a basic wee report would cost any more than £150-£200 max. It seems easy money afterall. No mess or actual physical work involved.

Anyone else I should think of ?

[edinburgh-fred]

Your list looks good to me. Perhaps might be helpful to find a good general builder and have them in first so they could alert you to anything else you need to pay particular attention to.

I suppose one difference, in theory at least, with a surveyor is that they have some kind of professional duty to find stuff and you may have some recourse against them if they miss something obvious. So there's an element of insurance about a survey. As a say... in theory!

But for a basic survey, reports seem so vague I find it hard to imagine they would find something that a decent tradesman would fail to spot and point out. So, I guess the important thing would be to find tradesmen who you really trust to have a decent look even though they don't carry the same risk as a surveyor if they miss stuff.

EF

I think most sellers would accept any offer they could get these days !!

As for experts I got the idea of this site a few years back. I think someone linked a post to some blog and I thought it sounded a good idea. Can't really remember.

Was thinking:

Plumber/heating bod

Electrician

Rot specialist.

Roofer

Builder.

Reckon a few hours each should suffice. Recently got some plumbing work done and bloke charged about £40 for an hours work. don't see why a basic report should cost me any more than about £150 each for this sort of thing.

For example the roofer is just going to get up on his ladder and have a wee poke about. Then get into the attic and do the same from the inside. See no reason why that and a basic wee report would cost any more than £150-£200 max. It seems easy money afterall. No mess or actual physical work involved.

Anyone else I should think of ?

[edinburgh-fred]

One more thing... any surveyors out there reading these forums?

Would be interested to hear from one. Is there some benefit to a survey report we're failing to understand?

EF

Your list looks good to me. Perhaps might be helpful to find a good general builder and have them in first so they could alert you to anything else you need to pay particular attention to.

I suppose one difference, in theory at least, with a surveyor is that they have some kind of professional duty to find stuff and you may have some recourse against them if they miss something obvious. So there's an element of insurance about a survey. As a say... in theory!

But for a basic survey, reports seem so vague I find it hard to imagine they would find something that a decent tradesman would fail to spot and point out. So, I guess the important thing would be to find tradesmen who you really trust to have a decent look even though they don't carry the same risk as a surveyor if they miss stuff.

EF

[wurdoomed]

One more thing... any surveyors out there reading these forums?

Would be interested to hear from one. Is there some benefit to a survey report we're failing to understand?

EF

Not a surveyor but reasons for me have been :

• their profession is surveying, they are qualified, trained, experienced, insured (sueable) and overseen by a trade body as surveyors;

• its custom and practice, i.e. wouldn't like to be serial no. 1 of someone trying out a new methodology;

• its expected, indeed demanded by lenders/insurers etc

  Reasons against getting a series of quotes from some builders would be :

  • Absolutely no comeback for errors (intentional or otherwise) ;

  • Unhealthy dynamic to have the guy advising you potentially doing the work also (poacher and gamekeeper?)

  • If you dont trust surveyors why trust builders

In practical terms CCC, do you really think that a prospective seller is going to let you and potentially a gang of gypsies clamber all over their lovely house pointing out flaws ?

[ccc]

Its nothing to do with not trusting surveyors - its just a simple matter of experience. Will a surveyor be able to point out a potential issue in this area ? Quite possibly not. I see surveyors as the gp's of the trade. Good knowledge of general stuff but if you want details you need a specialist. When spending 6 figures i personally find it strange that most people accept a gp for the job. As for the seller 'allowing' it . If they dont they have zero chance of getting the money. Up to them - and its not exactly a sellers market - is it ...

[wurdoomed]

Its nothing to do with not trusting surveyors - its just a simple matter of experience. Will a surveyor be able to point out a potential issue in this area ? Quite possibly not. I see surveyors as the gp's of the trade. Good knowledge of general stuff but if you want details you need a specialist. When spending 6 figures i personally find it strange that most people accept a gp for the job. As for the seller 'allowing' it . If they dont they have zero chance of getting the money. Up to them - and its not exactly a sellers market - is it ...

CCC, I really hope you do find the property of your dreams, I genuinely do, however I can't help but think that your plan is somewhat flawed and the perfect storm that needs to exists before you do will never take place. Lets look at the scenario that would have to develop to tempt you to prise open the piggy-bank :

Right property, area, street, floor, configuration

Right timing (when you have your cash pile ready, when you think markets at bottom and when you are emotionally ready to commit to a purchase)

Right seller – desperate, financially stretched, no alternative options, not willing to rent, open to rational economic argument, willing to let you slag their beloved home to pieces and ultimately able to accept your low ball offer,

Right Conditions – i.e. no one else looking for a similar, ‘perfect, reasonably priced’ property (BTL vultures ?) for the extended period your hardball tactics will most likely take

Heck, ….and at the end of all that, just when you are about to write that cheque for six figures you’ll probably think, ach a better one will be along soon and take cold feet.

I'd suggest you need to be more realistic, and accept that like most things in life some compromise is inevitable.

[ccc]

Not sure what the above has to do with what i am saying. All i am saying is if i do decide to buy then i may go a different route to getting the place 'checked out' than is normal. Not really a huge deal imo. Your point re someone scoping for future work is fair enough - but that is the same with many things and as the house would not even belong to me - i doubt it would be a big issue. If you have a problem with your plumbing who do you get in ? A plumber or a surveyor ? So if you want to find out of potential future problems with your plumbing who do you get in ? I just think it sounds like common sense.

[WhatThe]

Not sure what the above has to do with what i am saying. All i am saying is if i do decide to buy then i may go a different route to getting the place 'checked out' than is normal. Not really a huge deal imo. Your point re someone scoping for future work is fair enough - but that is the same with many things and as the house would not even belong to me - i doubt it would be a big issue. If you have a problem with your plumbing who do you get in ? A plumber or a surveyor ? So if you want to find out of potential future problems with your plumbing who do you get in ? I just think it sounds like common sense.

Hi ccc -- you might want to think about holding off buying in Edinburgh. My take is that the market here is changing and we will see a sharper fall in the next six months. Here is why:

(1) The Time on the Market is off the charts... I believe that it is taking on average approximately 200 days to sell. This is almost double what it has been last year and is rising.

(2) The referendum is scaring the life out of foreign EURO buyers who were buying into the Edinburgh market as a currency hedge. They will not do this now, too much risk. There was a lot of sales in the New Town in December and I believe this may have been foreign buyers getting their money out of Euros.

(3) There has almost been no sales in the first 2 weeks of January (ok it is a slow time...) but ONLY a couple of sales is unprecedented.

Hang in there.......

[ccc]

Hi ccc -- you might want to think about holding off buying in Edinburgh. My take is that the market here is changing and we will see a sharper fall in the next six months. Here is why:

(1) The Time on the Market is off the charts... I believe that it is taking on average approximately 200 days to sell. This is almost double what it has been last year and is rising.

(2) The referendum is scaring the life out of foreign EURO buyers who were buying into the Edinburgh market as a currency hedge. They will not do this now, too much risk. There was a lot of sales in the New Town in December and I believe this may have been foreign buyers getting their money out of Euros.

(3) There has almost been no sales in the first 2 weeks of January (ok it is a slow time...) but ONLY a couple of sales is unprecedented.

Hang in there.......

No interest in buying anytime soon. Just planning ahead for if I do !! Prob another 18 months at the least. See what happens.

Interesting about the foreign buyers. Seen rather a lot of new town places up for sale recently as I am down that way quite a lot. Sort of places that don't come up very often. Moray Place, Circus lane, lots of Fettes Row etc..

Like you I think all the pointers are in the down direction. The only upside is I know a few people who may buy in the next year or two. Similar age to me and managed to save up a lot of money. However these are the exception. Most people I know of my age have not been that lucky to get work that lets them save up a lot of money.

That's about the only upside to the Edinburgh market I can see. Against the downside its not much.

[catmandu]

Hi ccc -- you might want to think about holding off buying in Edinburgh. My take is that the market here is changing and we will see a sharper fall in the next six months. Here is why:

(1) The Time on the Market is off the charts... I believe that it is taking on average approximately 200 days to sell. This is almost double what it has been last year and is rising.

(2) The referendum is scaring the life out of foreign EURO buyers who were buying into the Edinburgh market as a currency hedge. They will not do this now, too much risk. There was a lot of sales in the New Town in December and I believe this may have been foreign buyers getting their money out of Euros.

(3) There has almost been no sales in the first 2 weeks of January (ok it is a slow time...) but ONLY a couple of sales is unprecedented.

Hang in there.......

WhatThe....welcome to the forum.

I'm interested in where you get your stats - particularly time on market and this talk of only a couple of sales this month.

[naptrel]

Gayfield House, East London Street

This upper-end place makes me a bit sad.

It is a spectacular house. For 500k (the price is dropping), it is in a very different league to the run-of-the-half-million Morningside terraced house. Gosh, it's grander than your typical Aston-Martined fancy-schmancy new town pad, too.

But.

While the area is nice, and very central, the house is sandwiched by yuck (offices, schools, warehousey-looking cack) and I'd guess that there are some serious maintenance costs looming. Plus you don't get the basement.

But wouldn't you love to live in a place like this? And when you look at the other stuff available for a similar price, this place is too cheap--it must have some major structural problems. Either that or it's a super-bargain waiting to be snapped up by a canny buyer who can see beyond the fear of overheads.

[Scunnered]

Gayfield House, East London Street

This upper-end place makes me a bit sad.

It is a spectacular house. For 500k (the price is dropping), it is in a very different league to the run-of-the-half-million Morningside terraced house. Gosh, it's grander than your typical Aston-Martined fancy-schmancy new town pad, too.

But.

While the area is nice, and very central, the house is sandwiched by yuck (offices, schools, warehousey-looking cack) and I'd guess that there are some serious maintenance costs looming. Plus you don't get the basement.

But wouldn't you love to live in a place like this? And when you look at the other stuff available for a similar price, this place is too cheap--it must have some major structural problems. Either that or it's a super-bargain waiting to be snapped up by a canny buyer who can see beyond the fear of overheads.

That's interesting. I pass Gayfield House now and again and it always looks as if it's somehow been stranded there by mistake. The Telegraph has an article (from 2003) about its history here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/propertyadvice/propertymarket/3316102/Beyond-the-Fringe-the-wreck-of-ages.html . There are some interesting nuggets such as

In 1825, Edinburgh house prices almost doubled in a year and it was said that plumbers could earn more than surgeons. One by one, mansions such as Gayfield were demolished as their owners cashed in on the New Town dream.

But then, in 1826, the bubble burst. Interest rates were raised and speculators lost their shirts as prices plunged lower every month.

It looks as if most of the nearby houses were demolished for lucrative developments in the New Town, but the owners of Gayfield house didn't cash in and it ended up being left on its own.

£500,000 does seem surprisingly little: the Telegraph article was connected with the house being sold, and they were looking for offers over £495,000 in 2003. It would be interesting to know how much it finally sold for that time. As you say, it looks as if it would be expensive to maintain; it'll presumably be listed or something as well, so you'll have to be careful what you do.

Here it is back when it was in the countryside:

[suggs]

That's interesting. I pass Gayfield House now and again and it always looks as if it's somehow been stranded there by mistake. The Telegraph has an article (from 2003) about its history here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/propertyadvice/propertymarket/3316102/Beyond-the-Fringe-the-wreck-of-ages.html . There are some interesting nuggets such as

It looks as if most of the nearby houses were demolished for lucrative developments in the New Town, but the owners of Gayfield house didn't cash in and it ended up being left on its own.

£500,000 does seem surprisingly little: the Telegraph article was connected with the house being sold, and they were looking for offers over £495,000 in 2003. It would be interesting to know how much it finally sold for that time. As you say, it looks as if it would be expensive to maintain; it'll presumably be listed or something as well, so you'll have to be careful what you do.

Here it is back when it was in the countryside:

The Ponzi Scheme is over renting is the way now anyone buying should be sent to a doctor.

[ccc]

If I wanted to run a hotel - had a spare 700k sitting in my back pocket - that could actually be a good plan. From the floorplan looks like you could get 8 bedrooms (Some small) into that and also have a decent space to live in it for yourself. With its proximity to town, and the way it looks I imagine it would be rammed for a good chunk of the year.

~£1300 per M2.

Thats pretty good value compared to most of Edinburgh. Probably less than your average Gorgie one bedder.

[WhatThe]

WhatThe....welcome to the forum.

I'm interested in where you get your stats - particularly time on market and this talk of only a couple of sales this month.

The information is first hand anecdotal from a few EA's (sorry!) - but is backed up by what I found online...

(1) The Time on the Market is off the charts... I believe that it is taking on average approximately 200 days to sell. This is almost double what it has been last year and is rising.

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/time_on_market_report.htm?location=edinburgh&all=1

(2) The referendum is scaring the life out of foreign EURO buyers who were buying into the Edinburgh market as a currency hedge. They will not do this now, too much risk. There was a lot of sales in the New Town in December and I believe this may have been foreign buyers getting their money out of Euros.

I know a few EURO property investors who have taken Edinburgh off their list.

(3) There has almost been no sales in the first 2 weeks of January (ok it is a slow time...) but ONLY a couple of sales is unprecedented.

This is easy to see from ESPC and Rightmove. There has been a few more sales this week but overall very few.

The times they are a changing...

[TTD]

(3) There has almost been no sales in the first 2 weeks of January (ok it is a slow time...) but ONLY a couple of sales is unprecedented.

This is easy to see from ESPC and Rightmove.

Easy to see.... how? There's no display of 'sold' properties on ESPC that I can see; how did you determine this?

[ccc]

I listed these properties some time ago as ones to watch. They were auctioned by Allsop and must be a BTL portfolio gone wrong.

Guide £150K.....made £150K, three bedroom

1st lot

Guide £150K.... made £140K double ensuite bedrooms.

2nd lot

The fact they only made guide or less is significant. These flats must be large considering the outside shot. Very close to the city centre also but I am not familiar with the area. What do you all think....

Walk past these a lot so thought I would check up. Link to sale prices below. Looks like whoever bought it may well have "bagged a bargain" after all.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=19961901&sale=20866214&country=scotland&referrer=soldPriceResults

Especially as it was sold for 212k in 2003.