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HOLA441
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HOLA442

Double-dip recession set Britons back £1,800 every year

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article3578694.ece

Britons are more than £1,800 a year worse off than they would be had the country avoided a double-dip recession, according to a study by leading business analysts.

With official growth figures due this morning expected to show the economy growing for the first time this year, a study by PwC for The Times shows the long shadow cast by the banking collapse of 2008-09.

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HOLA443

uk wide again but probably applies to Northern Ireland. mortages during the boom years

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2222737/Misery-mortgages-paid-FSA-report-reveals-deals-turned-100billion-time-bomb.html

"the Financial Services Authority report reveals up to three in four borrowers have ‘no reported repayment strategy’ – meaning that when their loan needs to be repaid, many will be forced to sell their home.

It also found:

More than 50 per cent of mortgages handed out at the peak of the market in 2007 and 2008 were granted without the lender asking for any proof about how much a person earned.
Up to 45 per cent of borrowers who have taken out a loan over the past seven years are ‘mortgage prisoners’, which means they may not be able to remortgage to a better deal or move house.
Nearly one in two households with a mortgage taken out between 2005 and 2010 have ‘no money left or had a shortfall’ after paying their mortgage and their bills. The FSA’s report said they have to raid savings or go into debt to keep afloat.
The number of homeowners who have fallen behind with their monthly mortgage payments ‘could be as high as 9.7 per cent’.
Over the past five years, half of all mortgage lending ‘was not used to buy houses’, but for people to remortgage, or to borrow more on their mortgage to ‘support their lifestyle, to pay for home improvements or to consolidate debts’.
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HOLA444

I have to say I am still shocked that with all the negative news at the moment at how many houses are going sale agreed at the moment. From using property bee I have never seem so many sales agreed - can I asume it is just the end of the house sale season and those that really want to sell/and those that want to buy are just getting the deal done or are we really close to the bottom of the market?. Interested in the lower stranmillis near the college and have seen 5 houses on one street go sale agreed this summer. Ranging fro £150k (repossession) to £225k (4 beds instead of 3). Was confident that one or two would come back on the market but none did. Have seen two houses that were bought for redevelopment that never happened (may have mentioned in this forum before) going for over £200K but looking like money pits to fix up. Also seen a house that I know had two or three feet of water in it in july go sale agreed - asking price was £150k - what it got I don't know. Might have to widen my search next year.

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HOLA445

I don't think its shocking, its just you don't know what those houses are actually selling for. We've just had an offer accepted last week for a house we thought we had no chance of getting but after a bit of haggling we have settled at 25% below asking price and 10% below rv.

Its our second move in ten years, a house in the middle ground area £175000 - 275000, so the discount in asking price is circa £50,000.

I suppose its down to the situation of the current vendors. If they purchased 6-8 years ago with a 90% mortgage then they are never going to sell unless they take a huge loss. This particular house was being sold by family as their remaining parent had passed away. Vendors like these aren't tied up with huge mortgages and can afford to be realistic about the prices of their properties.

I've also noticed even the most dillusional of ea's that i started dealing with over a year ago, were, in recent months becoming slightly more realistic with the prices of new property they were bringing to the market. That's not to say they have finally woken up but they are slowly going in the right direction.

I have to say I am still shocked that with all the negative news at the moment at how many houses are going sale agreed at the moment. From using property bee I have never seem so many sales agreed - can I asume it is just the end of the house sale season and those that really want to sell/and those that want to buy are just getting the deal done or are we really close to the bottom of the market?. Interested in the lower stranmillis near the college and have seen 5 houses on one street go sale agreed this summer. Ranging fro £150k (repossession) to £225k (4 beds instead of 3). Was confident that one or two would come back on the market but none did. Have seen two houses that were bought for redevelopment that never happened (may have mentioned in this forum before) going for over £200K but looking like money pits to fix up. Also seen a house that I know had two or three feet of water in it in july go sale agreed - asking price was £150k - what it got I don't know. Might have to widen my search next year.

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HOLA446

I agree. Its all about selling prices. EAs will be showing the sale agreed at the asking price. The sold price could be much lower. I was talking to someone in work who just sold in Belfast for 85k. The asking price was 125k. This seems to be common enough.

I know most 3 beds in that particular part of south Belfast are selling under RV. I also think RV there is too high compared to other areas.

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HOLA447

Take a step back.

This week we were told welfare will be cut back by £500 million, public sector pensions £260 million. Unemployment rising (see FG wilson), construction still contracting and 20-25% of shops vacant. Northern bank and Santander SVR approaching 5%, solid deposits and affordability stress tests becoming mandatory. VAT stuck at 20% and many more cuts (and tax rises - petrol) in the pipeline.

In this environment, If someone wants to pay £225.000 for a 4 bed house, I'll stand back and let them get on with it. House prices in NI are falling at 1% per month and have been doing so for several years.

300 yr low emergency interest rates, £375 Billion QE and 25% £ devaluation has resulted in an Olympic and Bank holiday fuelled 1% UK (London) growth blip after 2 yrs.

The economy is not about to overheat. NI house prices are not about to stop falling - even in Belfast. Living standards and disposable income are still firmly in reverse gear. Those with jobs are very fortunate - pay rise or no pay rise.

It’s still a hard toil to the sunlit uplands of recovery

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9633388/Its-still-a-hard-toil-to-the-sunlit-uplands-of-recovery.html

Few of the headwinds facing the British economy are unique to us. To a greater or lesser extent, virtually all developed economies – many of which, like the UK, have been living well beyond their means – are up against the same set of challenges. The best summary comes from Raghuram Rajan, the former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. I’ve quoted it before, but it bears repeating. “For years,” he says, “advanced-economy governments attempted to compensate for the jobs and income lost to technology and emerging-market competition by spending more than they could afford, and encouraging their citizens through easy credit to do the same.”

There are few places where this Neverland of easy money was more in evidence than the UK. In the six years running up to the crisis – boom years in terms of consumption, house prices and financial services – Britain ran a cumulative budget deficit of 16.2 per cent of GDP. According to a recent re-estimate by the IMF, we had a permanent, or structural, deficit heading into the crisis of 5.5 per cent of GDP, at a time when a prudent government would have been running a very substantial surplus. Household indebtedness also soared to unprecedented levels. One way or another, the consequent overhang of debt and unsustainable government obligations has to be dealt with.

The electoral challenge the Coalition faces is that the country has yet to come to terms with these unpalatable truths. Indeed, I’m not entirely convinced that ministers themselves fully recognise the scale of the problem. After the present dose of austerity will come another, and another, and another as Britain and others struggle to bring their overly generous pension, welfare and health-care promises into line with diminishing tax returns.

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HOLA448

Soaring cost of childcare 'stops parents seeking work'

Full-time employment barely worthwhile now for growing numbers of 'second earners' in many families, study reveals

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2012/oct/27/soaring-cost-childcare-parents-work

The rising cost of childcare means that going out to work full-time is now hardly worthwhile for a growing number of "second earners" in middle and low-income families, a major study will reveal this week.

In the most extreme case – where a second earner takes a full-time job at the minimum wage – a couple who use childcare could be left just £4 a week better off with two incomes than they would be with one.

Equally alarmingly for the government, the report, Counting the Costs of Childcare, by the politically independent Resolution Foundation, also finds that childcare costs are eroding incentives to work for those on higher incomes.

The study finds that a family with two children in which two earners bring in a total of £44,440 could end up just £4,000 better off than a similar family earning £20,000 less, due to the combined effect of benefits, tax, tax credits and childcare costs. In some cases a family's income can actually fall when a second earner takes on more hours, due to the complexities of the tax and benefits regime.

The report says the growth in female employment has been critical in maintaining household living standards over the last 30 years as men's employment income has declined in real terms. Affordable childcare is therefore essential in lifting incomes for those at the lower end of the income scale.

The latest figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – from 2008 – put the proportion of income spent on childcare in the UK at 27% for a couple with a joint income of double the average wage, and 21% for a couple on one and half times the average. The Resolution Foundation says these figures now stand at 30% and 19%.

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HOLA449

Never mind food, clothes (school uniforms), energy, pay freezes, child care, insurance, golf club/gym membership!!!, job losses..........

(A bit overdramatic - in NI 25% of diesel is laundered)

George Osborne's 3p rise in duty 'will squeeze households for years'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9639121/George-Osbornes-3p-rise-in-duty-will-squeeze-households-for-years.html

Ian Paisley calls illegal fuel levels 'staggering'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20068477

He pointed to a recent HMRC report that the estimated sales of illegal diesel have risen from 12% of all diesel sold to 25%.

Sunday People campaign: Bin the beer tax

Sunday People backs MPs calls for George Osborne to scrap his beer duty escalator

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/beer-tax-sunday-people-backs-1404040

Since the escalator was introduced in 2008 by Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling, beer duty has increased by 42 per cent.

O’Dowd warns schools: curb uniform costs or I’ll bring in legislation

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/education/orsquodowd-warns-schools-curb-uniform-costs-or-irsquoll-bring-in-legislation-16230212.html

A bit of fun (and also a bit scary!)

Vice-ometer calculator: Your tax

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-1633429/Calculator-tax-pay-beer-wine-cigarettes-spirits.html

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HOLA4410

uk

Five million paid less than Living Wage, says KPMG

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20104177

One in five workers in the UK is paid less than required for a basic standard of living, a report has claimed.

The proportion is much higher among waiters and bar staff, at up to 90% of workers, the research for accountants KPMG suggested.

It claimed that nearly five million people failed to command the Living Wage - a pay packet that enabled a basic standard of living.

The rate stands at £8.30 an hour in London and £7.20 in the rest of the UK.

This rate is voluntary, unlike the National Minimum Wage - the amount that employers must pay by law, which is set at £6.19 an hour for those aged 21 and over.

"Times are difficult for many people, but of course those on the lowest pay are suffering the most," said Marianne Fallon, head of corporate affairs at KPMG, which has itself signed up to pay the Living Wage.

The report suggested that Northern Ireland had the highest proportion of people earning below the Living Wage, at 24% of workers, followed by Wales at 23%

At the other end of the scale...........

Child benefit cuts: Millions set to receive letters

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20119514

Child benefit currently stands at £20.30 a week for the first child and £13.40 for each child after that.

Under the new approach, families where one parent earns between £50,000 and £60,000 will have their benefit reduced on a sliding scale.

The change will cost families with three children and at least one parent earning more than £60,000 about £2,450 a year - the equivalent of a £4,000 pay cut.

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HOLA4411

Economic recovery may bypass low and middle earners

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20138393

Millions of poor and middle-income households may be bypassed by any economic recovery, a report says.

The Commission on Living Standards argues that their quality of life could stagnate for the next decade, ending no higher in 2020 than they were in 2000.

The group blames this prospect on the demise of administrative and manufacturing jobs in the UK economy.

It warns that high unemployment will continue to depress wages and calls for state subsidies to boost employment.

Same same

Middle-class households may be £800 a year worse off by the end of decade

Millions of middle-class families face “unprecedented” cuts to their standards of living by the end of the decade, a report warns today.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9644600/Middle-class-households-may-be-800-a-year-worse-off-by-the-end-of-decade.html

Edited by Shotoflight
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HOLA4412

Never mind food, clothes (school uniforms), energy, pay freezes, child care, insurance, golf club/gym membership!!!, job losses..........

(A bit overdramatic - in NI 25% of diesel is laundered)

George Osborne's 3p rise in duty 'will squeeze households for years'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9639121/George-Osbornes-3p-rise-in-duty-will-squeeze-households-for-years.html

Ian Paisley calls illegal fuel levels 'staggering'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-20068477

He pointed to a recent HMRC report that the estimated sales of illegal diesel have risen from 12% of all diesel sold to 25%.

This could be sorted in seconds:

1)Get rid of red diesel - bring diesel for all vehicles down to the same low price

2) Increase road tax on diesel powered road vehicles to match the losses in duty.

So you'll be paying a lot more for your tax disc for your diesel car. The fuel will be cheaper. Do the sums - drive a petrol car if you don't drive much.

No more poisoned rivers. No more profits for organized crime.

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HOLA4413

Child benefit cuts may cost some families £50,000

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20146596

Some families may lose as much as £50,000 over the next 16 years due to cuts in child benefit, the accountancy firm PwC says.

The government will start to withdraw, or cut altogether, child benefit from families where an adult earns more than £50,000 a year.

The benefit clawback will start on 7 January 2013 and will affect about one million families.

PwC says their potential loss could be substantial.

"Many people affected by the child benefit cuts have probably not considered what the true cost will be to them over time," said Alex Henderson, a tax partner at PwC.

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HOLA4414

Well worth 4 minutes esp re womens take home pay, tax credits and reduction in male earnings -

Living standards squeeze: Britain's 10 years of economic gloom - interactive

The Resolution Foundation has published a damning report documenting the squeeze on living standards in the UK. Tom Clark distils the dismaying facts about how the good times ceased to roll

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/interactive/2012/oct/31/great-stagnation-resolution-foundation-report

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HOLA4415

Food prices are rising and it's going to get worse

The cost of the weekly grocery shop has increased by a third since the credit crisis struck, and food inflation is expected to get even worse as a result of poor harvests and rising populations.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/household-bills/9649310/Food-prices-are-rising-and-its-going-to-get-worse.html

As anyone who has visited a supermarket this year knows, it is hard to feel "insulated" from food price rises when your till receipt shows a higher number every week. However, Richard Dodd, head of campaigns for the British Retail Consortium (BRC), the trade body, said supermarkets were doing everything they could to keep costs as low as possible.

Customers, he said, were taking advantage of supermarkets' discounts and offers on a daily basis. "A third of the food that shoppers buy is on some sort of promotion," he said. "Customers are homing in on this in a big way."

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HOLA4416

Welcome to the great stagnation

Spending by consumers is being consistently depressed by low or zero wage growth, while prices have continued to rise

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/blog/2012/nov/02/welcome-to-great-stagnation

a grand substitution is taking place: cinema instead of theatre; fast food instead of restaurants; and public transport rather than cars.

The huge rises in gas, electricity and petrol bills are taking their toll. Every time petrol prices surge, consumers cut back in other areas.

An interesting relationship now exists between petrol prices and sales of electrical goods, such as TVs and computers. When petrol prices fall, almost exactly three months later consumers feel better off and buy a new flat-screen telly. The reverse happens when petrol prices rise – which may explain why Comet is on the brink of going bust.

Barclaycard says it has seen spending at fast food restaurants rise 27.4% over the past year, while it is broadly flat at all other restaurants, and well below the rate of inflation. Meanwhile, we're leaving the car at home and taking the bus or train. Trips on public transport are up 6%, while those to fill up the petrol tank are down 4.1%, says Barclaycard.

Barclaycard doesn't just see the data from millions of credit card purchases. It also sees around one third of all payments made every day in the British economy through its merchant services, so it probably has a better feel for the state of the British economy than the Office for National Statistics.

Unfortunately, it's not good reading. Spending by consumers is being consistently depressed by low or zero wage growth, while prices have continued to rise. Normally, spending shows a rise in November, ahead of Christmas. But it didn't happen last year, it seems. This year, whatever optimistic economists might say about "the green shoots of recovery", it's not showing up in Barclaycard's figures, which reveals that spending is flat, at best.

The good news is that we're not taking on more debt, even though our wages are down and prices are up.

A less benign interpretation is that economic confidence is so low that few of us think we can spend now and hope to pay it off later. The surprisingly robust jobs figures (have 500,000 jobs really been created over the past year?) probably mask a big switch to part-time and "mini jobs" where the squeeze on personal finances is intense. Historically low interest rates have also rescued mortgage borrowers who, even if they are in severe negative equity, can still, just, afford the monthly repayments.

The credit card figures also fail to pick up on the low-income households turning to payday lenders. Prudent and sensible? Desperate, more like

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HOLA4417

Eight million homes have no 'safety cushion' UK

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/spend-save/eight-million-homes-have-no-safety-cushion-8280186.html

Almost a third of UK homes have less than £250 set aside for an emergency, and are therefore at risk of instant destitution should redundancy strike, according to research from HSBC.

We may be repeatedly warned to create a "salary cushion" worth three months' net spay – an average of £5,756.20 – but the HSBC survey of 1,000 UK households shows that a fifth have no savings at all to fall back on and 12 per cent have savings of less than £250. With average monthly household outgoings currently at £1,669, these savings would last just five days. What's worse, the number of households in this situation has risen by three quarters of a million to top eight million homes since last year, when 28 per cent had maximum savings of £249.40

Those aged 16 to 24 and 35 to 44 are least prepared for a financial emergency – and are worse prepared than a year ago. Forty-six per cent of the younger group has fewer than £250 in savings while 42 per cent of those aged 35 to 44 are in the same position.

And women are still far less prepared for sudden joblessness than men. More than one in five has no savings at all, and 13 per cent have less than £250 set aside, compared with 16 per cent and 10 per cent of men respectively.

Edited by Shotoflight
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HOLA4418

Money will be tighter this Christmas, say four in 10

Two-fifths of people across the country think that this Christmas will be harder to afford than last year, research has found.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/loans/9655621/Money-will-be-tighter-this-Christmas-say-four-in-10.html

The Money Advice Service said more than one in 10 Britons who took on debts to fund Christmas 2011 were still paying off their loans as this year's festive season approaches.

Nearly half (49pc) of those surveyed took out a loan or went into more debt to get themselves through the festive season last year – and 13pc said they are still paying the money off.

The findings come as families are bracing themselves for soaring energy bills after a string of price hike announcements, while food and some mortgage costs are also on the increase.

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HOLA4419
19
HOLA4420

Cuts to child benefit 'will block recovery': Families will be forced to slash their spending

Families face the equivalent of £4,000 pay cut next year

Families with at least one parent earning over £50,000 will face benefit cuts

'Many will be overwhelmed' with debt, say campaigners

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2229518/Cuts-child-benefit-block-recovery-say-economists.html

It comes at a time when families are suffering from a long list of problems, from VAT at 20 per cent, several years of paltry pay rises or pay freezes and higher utility bills.

For example, The Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank said average incomes fell more in 2010-11 than during any year since its records began in 1962.

Una Farrell, from StepChange Debt Charity, said: 'The changes to child benefit are going to severely hurt many families who are struggling under the burden of debt.

'This debt has often been accumulated to offset the drop in income during maternity leave as the costs of a new baby drain family incomes.

'Even if the mother returns to work full-time, this legacy of debt can be hard to manage at the same time as dealing with the costs of raising a child.

'Child benefit fulfilled an important role for many families in these circumstances by plugging a gap in their household budgets.

'Without it, many will be overwhelmed by their debt burden.'

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HOLA4421

Fuel duty delay called for by Which?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20285940

The survey suggested 39% of people would cut back on motoring costs, while one in 10 said they had used savings to cover motoring costs.

Which? also said the figures showed 8.7 million households curbed their spending on essentials last month, while 6.4 million households used savings to cover outgoings.

The organisation's executive director Richard Lloyd said: "Rising fuel prices are the number one consumer worry and people are already telling us they're having to cut back and dip into savings just to get by.

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HOLA4422

Nurses on breadline: Shocking hardship facing backbone of NHS staff

Soaring numbers of workers so poor they are going to food banks and asking for handouts to make ends meet

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/soaring-numbers-of-nurses-forced-to-apply-1429206

SOARING numbers of NHS nurses are so poor they are applying for cash hardship grants and going to food banks.

A Sunday Mirror investigation today reveals that hundreds of nurses in the past year have asked for handouts to help them make ends meet.

The startling statistic shows how nurses are being left on the breadline as they face the effects of the Tory-led ­Coalition’s two-year pay freeze. The freeze, coupled with the rising cost of living, means nursing income has fallen by nine per cent in the past two years.

They have also been hit by a new ­charge of £100 each year to register as a nurse.

It has led to some joining queues at food banks while others are asking for help paying for essentials such as their ­children’s school uniforms.

Things are so bad that it has led to a 38 per cent increase in the number of nurses seeking counselling as they battle with stress.

In the past year, 1,307 NHS nurses were treated for stress-related illnesses – and experts warn it is only going to get worse.

Under the current ­Government nurses are more than £2,000 worse off a year, with an average starting salary of just over £21,000 a year... £7,000 less than the average wage. Two-thirds say they have considered ­quitting over the past year.

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HOLA4423

Inflation's 'nasty surprise' threatens household squeeze

Households are facing a further squeeze on their finances after inflation delivered a “very nasty surprise” last month and rose sharply on the back of spiralling university tuition fees and higher food bills.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9675235/Inflations-nasty-surprise-threatens-household-squeeze.html

The squeeze on family finances had been easing after inflation fell to its lowest level in almost three years, providing a rare bright spot in the economy by promising a resurgence in household spending power.

However, the sharp rise and forecasts of further increases in the year ahead threaten to put households back under pressure and extend the squeeze on finances that has already lasted more than two years.

HSBC economist Simon Wells said: “With wage growth still around 2pc per year, inflation is outpacing it. This reduces real incomes and means the hard-pressed consumer is less likely to drive a recovery by increasing spending.”

Rob Harbron, economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, said: “A further factor constraining household finances but excluded from CPI is inflation on mortgage interest payments. This rose in October to the highest rate since May 2008, at 6.6pc.

“With inflation remaining well above the Bank of England’s target rate of 2pc and further pressures in the pipeline from food and utilities, real income erosions look set to persist.”

Although inflation rose sharply in October, the figures did not reflect planned rises in energy bills that are scheduled for the coming months. Investec economist Philip Shaw has predicted that inflation will be back at 3.5pc within six months, saying: “Moreover the near 50pc surge in wheat and corn prices since the early summer looks set to add to inflationary pressures.”

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HOLA4424

Half of us feel worse off than a year ago

Forty-nine per cent of the population feel poorer now than they did 12 months ago, an increase of 7pc since July 2012.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/9678113/Half-of-us-feel-worse-off-than-a-year-ago.html

ohn Miles, Gocompare.com’s business development director, advised: “Forty nine per cent of Brits feel worse off now than they did a year ago. That’s the highest percentage we’ve ever measured in one of our surveys and is up from 42pc in July.

"Unfortunately it seems to confirm what many of us already know, that more than five years on from the start of the credit crunch UK consumers’ finances are still suffering.

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HOLA4425

Asda chief Andy Clarke urges scrapping fuel duty rise

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20343467

But he said that money was increasingly tight for customers, with "our latest income tracker out today showing that after a period of slight improvement disposable income is more or less flat again this month".

With households "feeling the cost of Christmas and energy price rises" this was not the time to put more pressure on spending by raising fuel duty, Mr Clarke said.

The tax increase was originally to be introduced last August, but in June the Chancellor, George Osborne, announced that he was postponing it for five months.

Mr Clarke told reporters that a survey of its customers conducted last month found they were on average £13 per month worse off than two years ago.

"Two-thirds of mums surveyed tell us they expect 2013's economy to be more challenging than this year," he said.

The squeeze on Asda's sales growth underscores other data on the economy. Earlier on Thursday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that retail sales fell 0.8% in October, having risen by 0.5% in September.

Food stores reported the biggest monthly decline in sales since November 2011, according to the ONS.

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