TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 FTSE down around 1% today. My 2% savings account looking good now. Investments can do down and probably will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 (edited) What Greece and its people want is, of course, the easiest way out Aside from 'not starting from here' then even the easiest way out will be a very large decline in relative living standards for some time. That isn't easy to stomach so, with that prospect in mind, I can see why they keep looking It will also offer opportunity to others. One thing which annoys me is accumulated wealth on boomer from last decades, and also companies that have expanded and accumulated so much into it. One big specialist insurer over here which spent 10 years buying up every little broker, so some top richies can get the wealth to mostly to themselves vs another big boy insurer, instead of 100+ independent brokers.. 100 small businesses. If it was UK in this situation, vs these house prices, I would be wanting reforms one way or the other. Young Greeks.. those not in cushy Gov jobs with feet up on the desk all day (emm ok that's me now) and a spit of work every 2 hours to decline red-stamp a planning permission application, or put in in the big piled-up pending tray. Those renting, living with parents (which I accept is something of a cultural thing there anyway.. but still seems weighed against them vs the owners). Edited June 30, 2015 by Venger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lie to bet Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 The obvious point still seems to be that if Greece really has a primary surplus but have an ever increasing deficit when paying interest on loans, surely they would be better off defaulting. This is perhaps not the "done thing" but the Greek Government must surely do what is best for it's own people not those who have allowed the debt to get too big. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I#ll be buying a holiday home thete next year if it collapses No point buying here, might as well plan for a sunny retirement. See, fresh investment when prices are eventually stable. telling the bankers to **** off is not the end of the world. A massive meteorite hitting is serious, changing currency, much less so. As in one home to retire to, not rent out. Been to Crete and there were elderly couples there, renting for 6 months, enjoying themselves - warmth in their bones. Taking it easy. This is before €. Cheap living. A return to it might not be so simple.. possible but painful and will require reforms. Got the perfect place for you, into the Greek crash/reforms either way. UK couple kept their place in London and bought place around Kent to rent out, and he has Greek villa too. Property property property (HPC victim hunters = "They didn't know what they were doing.") A look at Linkedin, and he may have his own holiday home in Greece too. Click on the facebook banner for it, on the holiday let website, and go straight to what seems to me to be photos of the couple. http://www.thegecko.eu/booking.htm Domain lookup gives a London address too, but nothing much data to see on 29, SW12 8ED other than multi-decade HPI followed by "save the victims - they only wanted a home - they didn't know what they were doing" growth-reflation has been extreme... with zoopla suggesting house turned into flats and pre ultra HPI (too many ipods) purchase price a doddle to pay. However, the bulk of the island is glorious and pretty unspoilt - utterly fabulous beaches on the west, beautiful mountains, many attractive villages, and all the simple pleasures that make (many) Greek islands such a joy. We've travelled extensively all over Greece and the islands over many years, and Lefkas may not be everybody's glass of retsina, but it's where we've chosen to build our house! http://www.greekisla...lefkasviews.htm Thread. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/201726-will-buy-to-let-investors-be-caught-out-by-eu-rules/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted June 30, 2015 Author Share Posted June 30, 2015 FTSE down around 1% today. My 2% savings account looking good now. Investments can do down and probably will. Unless of course there's a bailin and you take a haircut on the savings..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Unless of course there's a bailin and you take a haircut on the savings..... No; banks can handle hard HPC UK- but especially US banks sat on $Trillions - never sat on so much in reserves before. Oh and they've sold off bad positions back to wider markets.. REITs and stuff, in the excited yield chasing reflation. It's for the asset holders to taste a change in circumstances for once - real assets and other junkier investment assets. "It's not earning anything in the bank," says the boomers with home owned outright, so buy at £600,000 BTL property instead." Consequences coming. Greece however needs some basic reforms, and not quite as severe as 'instant poverty'. Hey renter-savers.. would you like cuts on SMI, BTLers, housing benefits, and other VI lazing about in bloated overpaid state sectors? Yes..? Well sorry, you have to think about the instant poverty of your selfishness of doing that. Can't allow that at all. Now here's a rent rise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pipllman Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 the advantage of staying in the EU for Greeks is that they can more easily leave (to another EU country) than they might be able to if Greece is removed from the EU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wonderpup Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I don't think so; you warn and warn and warn of 1000s of dead Greek babies because of austerity measures creditors trying to get Greek to accept repayment solution (with their bonds already wiped some €100Bn from what creditor expect Greece to pay under refinanced deal) Your 1000s of dead Greek babies is much more likely an outcome if Greece doesn't accept a deal with creditors / or see them leave EU and make their own way with their own old/new currency. My point was that dead Greek babies seems an acceptable outcome in the eyes of the EU if the alternative is writing off Greek debt- the health services in Greece have been decimated by the Troika 'recovery' programme. And as I pointed out this same EU would leap into action if a fault were found in the design of car baby seats, they would be passing laws, holding meetings and expressing their concern-right? So how do we resolve this apparent contradiction? Why is the risk to life in Greek hospitals so unimportant while the risk from a defective baby seat seen as being so significant? The answer is Debt- as soon as debt enters the picture we see a shift of relative values in which the issue of debt repayment becomes the primary concern. So the choices seem to be a never ending slow asphyxiation administered by the quasi fascists running the EU or a deep crisis maybe followed by some kind of longer term recovery if they exit the Euro and gain control of their own currency again. Which would you vote for? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 (edited) Unless of course there's a bailin and you take a haircut on the savings..... If Greece is anything to go by, we'll have 6 months notice of the collapse We've already had the bail int. What do you think 0.5% interest rates and QE was ? Edited June 30, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Lol. Everyone off to buy in Greece? I can see the personal finance headlines in Mail and Telegraph already This is not advice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 the advantage of staying in the EU for Greeks is that they can more easily leave (to another EU country) than they might be able to if Greece is removed from the EU But nobody is talking about leaving the EU. There's zero desire or imperative for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 But nobody is talking about leaving the EU. There's zero desire or imperative for that. There are other countries not in the euro who are in the EU. Why should a democraticly elected government not be allowed to decide which currency it uses and who it trades with. The bankers are trying to control states. The states need to dismantle the banks before there is a massive war. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 There are other countries not in the euro who are in the EU. Not 'in' the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 But nobody is talking about leaving the EU. There's zero desire or imperative for that.EU expulsion would be an act of war from the Germans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 There are other countries not in the euro who are in the EU. Why should a democraticly elected government not be allowed to decide which currency it uses and who it trades with. The bankers are trying to control states. The states need to dismantle the banks before there is a massive war. Well Greece can decide to leave the EZ but that's not the question. Agree re banks - Greece is really a legacy problem of the impact of German & French banks being bailed out by EZ taxpayers rather than by French/German govts directly. This whole saga has been a power play to cover up the German failure at the heart of the Eurozone system. It's largely Germany remember who is refusing to join in a full banking union. They want cake/eat it and to retain control and power. Typical bully. As I've said all along the problem in EZ isn't the periphery, it's Germany. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 EU expulsion would be an act of war from the Germans. Tell us more please. Greece doesn't have to default / GREXIT. You have an insight to Greece, with holidays there... but I sometimes have difficulty isolating your position on it all. Other than don't expect Greeks to put their Euro money from Greek banks in German banks for safety. Given the largess of the UK welfare state, I am surprised the UK is not crawling with recent Greek immigrants. Certainly given the established expat communities over here. I find it surprising that the Greeks (not cypriots) I know here are all professional (or close). Unlike some of the European accession countries I would surmise that it's just not worth slogging your guys out over here because the sterling is worth so little back home. It's not like there's a massive immigration problem in Greece either. Oh wait. Don't you think it's strange then? The young and urban more likely to have language skills have not made the jump? I also think you're applying a British mindset. In my experience the Greeks are far more entrepreneurial and getting a cushy job is not the be all and end all. All those things in the Greek psyche you view dimly, the bureaucracy, the corruption etc, of course that sends them in the direction of being self employed and operating in the grey if not black market. You should applaud them as they're effective capitalists. Fine - but pay taxes, rather than expecting other European countries to pay the way. It's time to pay taxes. Longer average hours doesn't equal hard work or productive work. It may just mean Greece has fewer part-timers. And the Greek public sector DID get ridiculously generous benefits and tax dodging IS rife. This story isn't spin - it's reality hitting home. I agree though that we will get (and indeed are already getting) the same reaction in the UK. In both Greece and the UK though people are going to have to get used to the fact that we must live within our means, and that means a living standard permanently much lower than in 2007. Wake me up when it starts happening in the UK. Mass emigration from Greece is very likely to happen in the aftermath of a Grexit - and as others above have noted, the emigrants will be those who are confident of their ability to earn their living elsewhere in the EU (and thus compete with middle-class, likely-to-vote workers in their destination countries). That, I suspect, is one of the reasons why Maria Fekter recently opined that if Greece were to leave the single currency, they should be forced out of the entire EU as well. Though she based her argument on a legal point (the Lisbon Treaty provides a mecanism for leaving the EU, but there is no European legal statute for leaving the euro but remaining an EU member state), I suspect that mass emigration was what was really on her mind: if Greece left the EU, then Greek citizens would no longer have the automatic right to live and work elsewhere in the EU, and thus the emigration could be controlled and limited. Its a complete cluster******. Its funny because the Greeks I meet in 'real' Greece (That's not to slight Cyprus but you know what I mean) seem to think they are somehow favoured by God. Greece is the best country on Earth, they invented civilisation, they have the richest history, the greatest culture, they have the best land, the best weather, the best sea, the best food, the best women, the list goes on. To them, everyone wishes they were Greek and lived in Greece. And if you ever suffer the misfortune of speaking to a Chrisi Avgi supporter, its an order of magnitude worse. For the most part, these people I've met are not rich in any real sense which is probably where its at but it is refreshing to see an honest appraisal of why somewhere is better than Greece. I am not sure whether that is because of your Cypriot and UK background or the general backwardness I see when there, there being very far from the centre of Greece. These people are, for the most part in classical denial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 (edited) http://blogs.wsj.com/cfo/2015/06/29/citigroup-girded-for-challenging-situation-in-greece/ "The Greek crisis won’t leave Citigroup Inc. unscathed, but the bank hopes the measures it has taken will insulate it from the brunt of any damage from the unfolding crisis, which could force the debt-laden country off the euro" "“With a little pain we’ll comfortably survive something in Greece at least in its primary effects,”" " The bigger worries, however, are the secondary and tertiary consequences as Greek pain ripples through the broader global financial system, he said. Secondary effects to Citigroup should be minimal, he added." And tertiary ? I wasnt worried till I read that !!! Edited June 30, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I'm not certain either. On full-scale default, one risk is they lose the goodwill of European Governments, and are ostracised for many a year, even suffer unofficial sanctions. Creditor already burnt might have less money/less willingness to lend to them again. There's also the possibility of default and them honouring some of the existing debt.. like 1/3rd of it say, to not risk fury from creditors. That said markets are markets and new money will likely reinvest where there's opportunity/profit to be made. I guess some will point to Iceland but that's so small scale. Argentina, from the little I know of it, isn't exactly a model for happy fair economy, by itself, in control of its own destiny - with it's repeated busts and trying to get out of debt - I'm convinced things could be much better for the general population of Argentina with proper deep reforms for wider population. The danger with that is that they move closer to Russia, so the US won`t allow it to happen? They were probably pushed into the euro for geo-political reasons in the first place anyway? IMO Greece has a lot to gain here long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 My point was that dead Greek babies seems an acceptable outcome in the eyes of the EU if the alternative is writing off Greek debt- the health services in Greece have been decimated by the Troika 'recovery' programme. And as I pointed out this same EU would leap into action if a fault were found in the design of car baby seats, they would be passing laws, holding meetings and expressing their concern-right? So how do we resolve this apparent contradiction? Why is the risk to life in Greek hospitals so unimportant while the risk from a defective baby seat seen as being so significant? The answer is Debt- as soon as debt enters the picture we see a shift of relative values in which the issue of debt repayment becomes the primary concern. So the choices seem to be a never ending slow asphyxiation administered by the quasi fascists running the EU or a deep crisis maybe followed by some kind of longer term recovery if they exit the Euro and gain control of their own currency again. Which would you vote for? Good post, yes, the continuation of the financial system trumps dead babies in the world view of the people who pull the strings. Greece making a stand is very very important IMO. We should help them by running on cash, having no debt, and keeping exposure to the Idiot Box to a minimum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 If Greece is anything to go by, we'll have 6 months notice of the collapse We've already had the bail int. What do you think 0.5% interest rates and QE was ? Yep, that was the bail-in, any overt lifting of savings from accounts in the UK would see massive civil unrest and it would bring down the government. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Yep, that was the bail-in, any overt lifting of savings from accounts in the UK would see massive civil unrest and it would bring down the government establishment. Hence why I am convinced the Queen had a word in the BoE's shell like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Paul Mason @paulmasonnews 13m13 minutes ago Video blog from Athens: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibvb8_KYv98 … If EU offers debt re-structuring Greek govt. may cancel referendum or even (PM's opinion) switch to campaign for a "Yes" vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Yep, that was the bail-in, any overt lifting of savings from accounts in the UK would see massive civil unrest and it would bring down the government. The govt could recruit this bankster-loving douche to the cause. "Give 'em your fooken money!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 The govt could recruit this bankster-loving douche to the cause. "Give 'em your fooken money!" "Let them know it's bailout time..." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copydude Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Paul Mason @paulmasonnews 13m13 minutes ago Video blog from Athens: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibvb8_KYv98 … If EU offers debt re-structuring Greek govt. may cancel referendum or even (PM's opinion) switch to campaign for a "Yes" vote. I watched that . . . . thanks for link. My impression: Greece will want much more than a 'glimmer' of hope for debt relief. There was some other reporting from Reuters that debt relief 'could be discussed in October 2015' Yeah, right. Mason's comments very, very speculative, as in 'the Greek Government might, just might' switch their recommendation to a 'yes' vote. Anyway, the prospect of democracy has clearly rattled the EU. . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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