Hampshire - Basingstoke

[colonel faulkner]

I'm not doubting you but.....this 90% rule. Is this figure available anywhere (official or semi official) as would really like to track this percentage of accepted price re offer price?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

http://www.hometrack.co.uk/index.cfm?fusea...sitem&newsid=95

See page 6, graph 3. 92.7% reported for Jan, falling trend.

[newaccount99]

Haven't posted on here for a few weeks....mainly because I appear to be witnessing a phoney war.

I reguarly check the property pages and Rightmove and I just don't seem to see much happening:

1) Plenty more overpriced properties comming on the market.

2) A few properties appear to sell

3) Occasional "sold" property appears back on the market

4) Other properties being withdrawn/re-marketed.

But no significant cuts in asking prices since those we saw at year start.

Sure the odd property drops it's asking price but for every one of those I see, another prop comes on the market at £silly+some

Maybe it's just a watched kettle and all that.....and maybe I expected things to dip faster than this..........but all in all it looks pretty stagnant to me.....It really is Boringstoke at the moment

If things don't start kicking off come the spring or early summer I'm tempted to switch my vote to the 'mother of all stagnations' camp

[Grime- skint wouldbe ftb]

If things don't start kicking off come the spring or early summer I'm tempted to switch my vote to the 'mother of all stagnations' camp 

Stagnation... I don't agree. Looking at the graph of real increase in house prices since 1960 ...

http://www.whatprice.co.uk/graphics/real-house-prices.JPG

you can see that if you average out all the little peaks and troughs, prices follow a straight-line increase; they go up and down, but essentially the increase is a simple linear one. You can see that by 2005 (er... that's now isnt it?!) prices should be around 300% of their 1960 value... the year 2000 bubble has pushed it up to 400% ... it doesn't take an Einstein to figure what happens next.

The only argument being put forward that there won't be a correction this time (and it would have to be a large correction to counter the large increase obviously) is that we are living under completely different conditions these days - inflation blah blah, unemployment blah blah, interest rates etc. I don't buy that one myself- there are always global factors affecting the markets, but unless there was some fundamental shift in supply vs demand values remain pretty constant. I've even heard those desperate to prop up this argument blaming immigration and asylum under the current government

[newaccount99]

Stagnation... I don't agree. Looking at the graph of real increase in house prices since 1960  ...

Yes i'm aware of all the graphs.....I don't think we actualy disagree..........I would say "correction" is certainly on the cards and of the order 20-30%.

"Stagnation" and "crash" are subjective terms and are probably more related to the speed of the correction....for example:

I would personaly (subjectively) class the following yearly changes at todays inflation rate:

Stagnation: HPI +3 to -3%

Crash: HPI < -8%

But another person could quite rightly (subjectively) propose other values for the above. So a "correction" of the same magnitude could be achieved by either a '2yrs * Crash' scenario or a '5yrs * Stagnation' scenario or anything in between.....

All I was saying was that I was formaly of the first scenario now i'm begining to wonder if it will be the later......either way I think we both agree that a house looks like a cr*p investment for the next couple of years+

[deano]

I putting this back at the top in the hope BTL will see it and update it!

[newaccount99]

I putting this back at the top in the hope BTL will see it and update it!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Cheers Deano and thanks for the PM. I haven't posted on here lately cause i'm afraid there's not an awful lot to report.....we're still in a phoney war here in North Hampshire and everything is very static, a few sales, no price increases/decreases but a heck of a lot of sticky properties.

Tories got in, which is no surprise as this has been a safe tory seat for as many years as I've lived here.

Still shed loads of 'city living' apartments available, no apparent discounts however more incentives than you can shake a big stick at...including Season tickets to London.....

I'm afraid I've now transitioned to the Stagnation-Correction camp! I firmly believe that unless we see a 0.5% rise in BOE rate in the next 12 months we are looking at 7 years of +3% to -3% annual HPI (nominal) which is approx 0% to -6% annual HPI (real) if you take CPI into account.

However I say that only for 'normal' stock....the 'city lifestyle' appartments will follow Crash-Correction path regardless of BOE. Anyone whose bought these rip-offs is going to be seriously out of pocket.

Of course all the above IMHO and only about the area I know......

[Rubbernecker]

I heard that one of those 2 bed flats in the disgusting Custard Towers went for £155,000 at auction! Still too expensive IMO as they are very small inside and an estate agent confirmed this as well as a mate who has got mates there!

They are requesting planning permission just up Chapel Hill for 355 flats and gues what only 355 parking spaces as clearly they think no-one has visitors anymore.

I have been keeping an eye on a Victorian property in town which is a 2 bed terrace and has gone from 159,000 to 139,000 which is quite amusing!

[newaccount99]

So here are the latest LR figures for the Basingstoke and Dean area.

Period £Av Price Sales Q increase

Dec-98 111019 972

Mar-99 112614 788 1.44

Jun-99 115841 1066 2.87

Sep-99 133144 1195 14.94

Dec-99 128144 1223 -3.76

Mar-00 142663 849 11.33

Jun-00 143565 1029 0.63

Sep-00 157589 888 9.77

Dec-00 143325 928 -9.05

Mar-01 148405 790 3.54

Jun-01 158664 1094 6.91

Sep-01 172965 1246 9.01

Dec-01 174144 1051 0.68

Mar-02 152786 843 -12.26

Jun-02 180640 1144 18.23

Sep-02 184436 1144 2.10

Dec-02 190878 1017 3.49

Mar-03 196597 678 3.00

Jun-03 190664 780 -3.02

Sep-03 205786 1000 7.93

Dec-03 206467 1227 0.33

Mar-04 207369 800 0.44

Jun-04 203590 1167 -1.82

Sep-04 223197 1165 9.63

Dec-03 228835 898 2.53

Mar-04 219178 467 -4.22

Now the previous Q'ters figures are always subject to some adjustment so we could see a rise of approx 10% on those sales figures and the average price is subject to some variation......So what conclusions can we draw from the above:

1) Sales volumes are definately down on recent trend.

2) HPI has been running at approx 5.5% for last two years.

So no correction in Basingstoke yet and we need to see how the next 6 mths lie before we can declare crash or stagnation. But either way hold on purchasing that Victory Hill BTL portfolio for now

[newaccount99]

I wish I was updating with some interesting news of price drops or riots in Boringstoke......the fact of the matter is that things are still in stand off......I reguarly view Rightmove and houses have been sitting on there since the new year and before.....no price shifts and very few moving on as Sold..

I'm not sure how much longer the towns vast number of EA's can stay in trading....all their books must be deeply in the red with such few sales yet plush shops and local advertising bills to cover.

I really thought we would be in a rout by now but apparently not. Howevere latest deals on Victory Hill do include 1 years mortgage paid. Those crappy Duplex's at Crown heights are still on at last years prices of £285K.

To quote many a newbie BTL'er "I'm in this for the long haul" albeit renting rather than investing

[PatientWaiter]

I disagree that there hasn't been any movement in Basingstoke. Doing a search on rightmove starting with the lowest priced property first, there's now huge numbers of studio flats stacked up at 89,950 whereas last year you literally couldn't buy anything for less than 105k.

I say 89,950. There's one build that has at least four studios on offer. Prices now dropped to 84,950, that's more than 5.5% off just since the start of the year:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-548...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

Here's another very interesting price. Brighton Hill, admittedly not the nicest part of town, 3 bed terrace for 124,950. Hasn't moved in MONTHS:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-781...pa_n=8&tr_t=buy

Now have a look at nethouseprices.com:

http://www.nethouseprices.com/component/op...5/limitstart,0/

In the list, you'll see the same style house, same area (about a street away), same build style, same everything. Price last June: 189,950. If 124,950 is such a bargain by comparison, why hasn't anyone bought it?? That's 65K off (>34% price reduction). And it doesn't end there. I've got prices for houses in the same street that are up to 193K !!! for a 3 bed terrace in Brighton Hill !!!

Conclusions please...

Oh, and the "Victory Hill" development isn't just "no mortagage" for a year. Last week they ran an advert saying "live free for a year" and in 3 inch high letters told the readership that they CANNOT REFUSE the offer that weekend. As far as I know, the offer was "everything paid, for 1 year" - prices from 149K. There's no way they're going to pull people in for 149K for a 1 bed flat.

I've been told that the apartments in Crown Heights have been sold as housing association stock. Gotta get myself on one of those lists...

[Jason]

Hampshire overall is going down fast. I've been watching prices since March, and they all have dropped their prices... Oh dear...

P.s. have you got a contact for the 'live free for a year' offers? I would love to see them! There's so much scope for this!!!!

[newaccount99]

I disagree that there hasn't been any movement in Basingstoke.  Doing a search on rightmove starting with the lowest priced property first, there's now huge numbers of studio flats stacked up at 89,950 whereas last year you literally couldn't buy anything for less than 105k.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for the good news PatientWaiter.........I guess I hadn't really been monitoring the FTB/Studio market so closely though I do vaguely remember last year figures of £100K+ for crappy studios in goat lane. £10K off those is a very respectable 10% off

Tend to focus on props at price I STR'd at and prospective purchase range........also a morbid fascination for Victory Lost/Crown dips.

Do keep up the good work and keep us posted.

[philw]

To anyone affected by negative equity.

My name is Philip Whiteside. I am am a journalist looking at the issue of negative equity.

It is becoming clear that more and more people are becoming affected by the problem. In today's Daily Mail the BBC newsreader Natasha Kaplinsky is revealed to have sold her house for £10,000 less than she paid for it four years ago. Many of those who have been affected are people who have remortgaged their house so that the value of their mortgage is now more than the price of their house. Others bought just before prices started to fall.

If you have been affected by negative equity, I would be very pleased to hear from you. Initially the conversation would be off the record, so we can get a flavour of what is happening across the country. If you would feel able to talk, please contact me at philipiwhiteside@yahoo.com or on77** ******.

[BufferBear Bitcoin Bull]

Hello Philip,

How did you come across this site?

BB

[PatientWaiterRidesAgain]

According to some of the national EA chains that operate in Basey, the market has "dropped off a cliff" in June/July this year.

Two local agents have been door to door posting flyers encouraging buyers to phone in immediately and get their houses moving (see attachments).

In addition, I'm now watching falls almost in "real time". Third attachment - studio flat that started life at 90K. Dropped to £79950. Then £75K. Now £71K. Still not shifted in over 4 months...

Other parts of the country I monitor are showing the same obvious trends, with house availability stacking up at "psychological" levels - studios on for 70K, 1/2 bed starters at 85K-95K, 3-beds at 100K, etc, etc...

[newaccount99]

I pity the poor buggers who bought these flats, sure they got smeg appliances et al but that little fountain in the middle is a teenage chav magnet. Oh and right by club Liquid too that will be lovely for the 2am chuck out time.

Basingstoke will see 20-25% real-value drops over the next 3 years......These dives will drop significantly more....   

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well you read it here first.....

Basingstoke MP...is backing residents...who say their lives are being made miserable by anti-social behaviour....magnet for rowdy behaviour...revellers shouting, swearing and drinking as they pass through...inthe early hours....."To be honest, I just want to move out now"....

And on page three......"Liquid is granted a license to stay open till 3am"

You couldn't make it up.............

[Rubbernecker]

Yeah you should see how ugly and what a rip off those goat lane flats are,

http://www.connells.co.uk/detail.asp?type=...=8&id=043200354

[newaccount99]

Yeah you should see how ugly and what a rip off those goat lane flats are,

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property/9329084" target="_blank">Crown heights

So all the residents have called in the local MP and an ASBO officer to sort out the problem of 3am druken noise and you want how much?!?

[Pluto]

Look a comparitive bargin compared to this joker:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property/9329084]Crown heights[/url]

So all the residents have called in the local MP and an ASBO officer to sort out the problem of 3am druken noise and you want how much?!? 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wow! Is that right over 300K for sh.t hole. Someone should call air traffic control and have that lunatic guided back....no, on second thoughts, someone should call mission control in Houston. This clown has made it all the way into space!!

[newaccount99]

Well there's plenty of dumb ass people who paid way over the odds before:

212, Crown Heights, Alencon Link £499,995 27 May 2004

147, Crown Heights, Alencon Link £425,000 24 Jun 2004

149, Crown Heights, Alencon Link £332,995 28 Nov 2003

352, Crown Heights, Alencon Link £329,995 01 Apr 2004

350, Crown Heights, Alencon Link £319,995 01 Apr 2004

210, Crown Heights, Alencon Link £310,000 28 Apr 2004

129, Crown Heights, Alencon Link £300,000 26 Feb 2004

[newaccount99]

Little story about Victory Hill appartments which has lost one muppet £30K:

Property Telegraph

"It seemed a really good deal, and at that sort of price we were very keen to sell on the apartment immediately to make some quick money,"

What a bit like a get-rich-quick-scam?

joined the company's property club they would get favourable discounts on off-plans. If they did so in 48 hours, they could join for £5,000, plus a monthly direct debit of £119. So they signed up.

Can I interest you in an Ostrich (pinstrip-farming) investment portfolio too?

Pinstripe Farming

After producing a valuation for £220,000, for what was suggested was a comparable property, the company said the Joneses could buy the flat for £193,600. The couple agreed to go ahead, paying Instant Access Properties a £6,824 finder's fee and a £1,000 holding deposit.........The couple put down a further £21,000 as a deposit and approached Northern Rock for a mortgage. However, Northern Rock valued the property at £175,000, not £220,000.

You really should have engaged your brain prior to handing cash over to a crook in a suit.

"We are in serious financial difficulties and have lost just under £30,000 on the deposits, mortgage interest, legal bills and administration fees that we've paid on this property."

Don't worry help is at hand, pop over and see me, I have some magic-wealth-creation beans which I think might interest you....will solve all your financial problems and yours for a special price....

[newaccount99]

Letter in this wednesdays Gazette concerning Crown heights from Stephen Reid county councillor:

....This Tower block will therefore get a reputation for being a bad place to live.....The privately-rented flats will lose their rentable values and go into decline. People who bought....will try and move out......Within 20 years, people will be calling for the building to be demolished as a failed experiment."

The people who shelled out premium prices to secure these properties must be crying in their cornflakes......Less "city living executive appartment" more "Inner city slum flat"

I genuinely pity those that bought these to live in......those that bought for investment puposes have learnt the hard way about get-rich-quick.

[newaccount99]

Land registry figures for Basingstoke and Deane

Av Price £ Sales Q increase

Dec-98 111019 972

Mar-99 112614 788 1.44

......

Time for an update to those figures:

Quarter: Av Price (£) : Sales: % increase

Dec-98 111019 972

Mar-99 112614 788 1.44

Jun-99 115841 1066 2.87

Sep-99 133144 1195 14.94

Dec-99 128144 1223 -3.76

Mar-00 142663 849 11.33

Jun-00 143565 1029 0.63

Sep-00 157589 888 9.77

Dec-00 143325 928 -9.05

Mar-01 148405 790 3.54

Jun-01 158664 1094 6.91

Sep-01 172965 1246 9.01

Dec-01 174144 1051 0.68

Mar-02 152786 843 -12.26

Jun-02 180640 1144 18.23

Sep-02 184436 1144 2.10

Dec-02 190878 1017 3.49

Mar-03 196597 678 3.00

Jun-03 190664 780 -3.02

Sep-03 205786 1000 7.93

Dec-03 206467 1227 0.33

Mar-04 207369 800 0.44

Jun-04 203590 1167 -1.82

Sep-04 223047 1174 9.56

Dec-04 229516 904 2.90

Mar-05 220681 538 -3.84

Jun-05 212422 735 -3.74

So the last 2 qtrs have shown drops, however I do think we need at least another qtr, possibly two before we can add much credance to it.

What is more significant is the drop off in completions over the last three quarters, below those of 2 years previously where many agents were calling a tough market due to the uncertainty over Iraq.

We'll have to wait another 6 weeks or so for the Q3 stats to come through.

[newaccount99]

Well it's coming to the end of 2005 and I must say that the Basingstoke market held up better than I anticipated. It all got a bit jittery during the spring but has remained largely robust in terms of asking prices. Sales volumes certainly took a knock but there appears to be a wealth of owners willing to ask the unreasonable for their beloved treasures.

City lifestyle appartments seem particuarly sticky, some case examples:

These lower grade ones will be on market sub £135K by year-end regardless of whether there is a crash or not.....

Okay not quite

Victory Hill

Further shaving off this sticky one though:

I say 89,950. There's one build that has at least four studios on offer. Prices now dropped to 84,950, that's more than 5.5% off just since the start of the year:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-548...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy

now being offered at £79,950

[Pippa]

Well it's coming to the end of 2005 and I must say that the Basingstoke market held up better than I anticipated. It all got a bit jittery during the spring but has remained largely robust in terms of asking prices. Sales volumes certainly took a knock but there appears to be a wealth of owners willing to ask the unreasonable for their beloved treasures.

City lifestyle appartments seem particuarly sticky, some case examples:

Okay not quite

Victory Hill

Further shaving off this sticky one though:

now being offered at £79,950

Ok, it's not quite Guildford (Fleet, 'bout 10 miles down the road for those who don't know) but I've just heard of a collegue getting gazundered on the property he's selling....makes a nice change from buyers getting gazumped!