[Killer Bunny]

Debate with Nicky Campbell and some VI economist - Ruth Lea

Listen again at 5 live breakfast show at 8.01am or so.

This post has been edited by Financial Planner: 15 April 2008 - 09:17 AM

[Alice]

Watch out for her! I've never heard anyone so apparently without soul. Comes over as very right wing, totally anti the UK education system and all in all with little empathy for the plight of the average worker!

[Killer Bunny]

Alice, on Apr 14 2008, 04:07 PM, said:

Watch out for her!

Yes, thx. I know she's extremely economically right wing. Used to be at CBI and chucked out. Or IoD - too right wing for them!!!!!!! She apparently has told BBC that unemployment was high at the beginning of the last crash and that IRs were high. Clearly she knows as much as everyone else about the economics. Makes me sick!

[Alice]

Financial Planner, on Apr 14 2008, 04:10 PM, said:

Yes, thx. I know she's extremely economically right wing. Used to be at CBI and chucked out. Or IoD - too right wing for them!!!!!!! She apparently has told BBC that unemployment was high at the beginning of the last crash and that IRs were high. Clearly she knows as much as everyone else about the economics. Makes me sick!

Doesn't surprise me at all. People who shout as loud as her rarely know their stuff.

[SeenItAllBefore]

Financial Planner, on Apr 14 2008, 04:10 PM, said:

Yes, thx. I know she's extremely economically right wing. Used to be at CBI and chucked out. Or IoD - too right wing for them!!!!!!! She apparently has told BBC that unemployment was high at the beginning of the last crash and that IRs were high. Clearly she knows as much as everyone else about the economics. Makes me sick!

I'm sure you don't need reminding but just in case:

Housing sales volumes collapsed, like now.

Consumption slumped as a result, starting with big ticket items like, cars, bathrooms, kitchens, carpets etc like now.

This lead to job losses, like the ones that are starting now.

Which lead to the price collapse which, judging by the Halifax's results, isn't far away either.

Don't forget to point out that (a) the price falls in the US pre-dated the recession and that, although interest rates are lower, the debt repayment burden now is the same as it was when they were 15% in the early 90s.

Good luck.

[shindigger]

Alice, on Apr 14 2008, 04:07 PM, said:

Watch out for her! I've never heard anyone so apparently without soul. Comes over as very right wing, totally anti the UK education system and all in all with little empathy for the plight of the average worker!

The former boss of the Institute of Directors. No less.

[Ash4781]

What's the debate on ?

[W12]

There'll be a series of interviews on various BBC local radio stations in the morning too. And I suspect the Today programme on R4 and BBC1 Breakfast will be mentioning the story......

[OnlyMe]

Financial Planner, on Apr 14 2008, 05:10 PM, said:

Yes, thx. I know she's extremely economically right wing. Used to be at CBI and chucked out. Or IoD - too right wing for them!!!!!!! She apparently has told BBC that unemployment was high at the beginning of the last crash and that IRs were high. Clearly she knows as much as everyone else about the economics. Makes me sick!

FP, great stuff on TV last night.

If you get the chnace ask her how by depressing wages of the majority and spurring on inflation any of the economic participants are going to do well as a result.

"Strong" companies with a bust workforce who can't afford the output of the companies they work for!

Ask her if even the companies themselves or indeed the CBI had though this one out or did they all think they were working in their own little bubble with no knock-on effect.

This post has been edited by OnlyMe: 15 April 2008 - 12:04 AM

[ruisort7]

Ash4781, on Apr 14 2008, 08:51 PM, said:

What's the debate on ?

If Arsenal need to buy another striker.

[Methinkshe]

Financial Planner, on Apr 14 2008, 04:10 PM, said:

Yes, thx. I know she's extremely economically right wing. Used to be at CBI and chucked out. Or IoD - too right wing for them!!!!!!! She apparently has told BBC that unemployment was high at the beginning of the last crash and that IRs were high. Clearly she knows as much as everyone else about the economics. Makes me sick!

Did you read Ruth Lea's article in the Telegraph yesterday?

UK faces hard times but should avoid recession

I disagree with a lot of what she has to say. This bit, for instance:


Housing market bears point to the fact that the ratio of prices to average earnings (for men) is close to record highs and this will be a factor in driving down prices aggressively. But affordability, as measured by the ratio of mortgage interest payments to earnings, is surely more relevant. It has increased in recent years, but is still below the peak of the late 1980s and early 1990s, reflecting substantially lower interest rates.

Housing market bears are also making gruesome comparisons with the US, where the housing market has slumped. But conditions in the UK are different for two main reasons. The first is the over-supply of property in the US, which is not the case on the whole here, and, second, the lending practices in the US, not least of all concerning sub-prime mortgages, have been even slacker than in Britain. All in all, a repetition of the 1990s housing crash still seems unlikely, even though prices are slipping.

How does she work out that affordability is below the 1989/80 peak? And as for U.S. lending practices being slacker than UK ones, I wonder if she just hasn't heard of self-cert, liar loans and how pervasive they were.

[Methinkshe]

You nearly lost it there with Ruth Lea, F.P.! Can't say I blame you. She was wilfully ignoring and/or distorting facts.

It will be interesting to hear if there are any email responses from listeners.

[rettah]

These people seem to forget the basic fact about borrowing money - You have to pay it back!

[Griptool]

You've been on the coffee there FP? - sounds like she lit the blue touch paper at the beginning and you built to a explosive crescendo

[the primitive]

Methinkshe, on Apr 15 2008, 08:16 AM, said:

You nearly lost it there with Ruth Lea, F.P.! Can't say I blame you. She was wilfully ignoring and/or distorting facts.

It will be interesting to hear if there are any email responses from listeners.

A great listen! But it did rather remind me near the end of Kevin Keegan losing it on Sky, not sure that was quite so wise! Ruth Lea must have been making condescending and patronising faces at him to wind him up!

Why no mention of real interest rates? I thought the point was that while interest rates in 1990 were high, so were pay rises.

the other killer fact is surely the average size of a mortgage compared to income, which is higher now, (Isn't it?!)

Anyway, there can be very few people left in the UK who aren't at least vaguely aware of a housing slowdown. Great stuff.