winkie Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Sold. SE London / Kent. ...the only problem with the extra 'so called' desirable areas, (desirable to some ) is the world is open, and we allow almost anyone from outside to purchase property in this country....not all countries allow that....there is mega money floating around the world requiring a home.......the very rich remember can afford to lose money, they just need a place to put it, the majority of working people who live and work here only want to buy a home in order to live a life can't afford to lose their money, they can't afford that luxury. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfs1959 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 If only the best houses are selling then average prices may rise even in a falling market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tricksters Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 More like 30-40%. Too good to be true for many people. When something "would be too good to be true", it rarely happens. How often has something too good to be true happened in your lifetime? Seems to be one of life's rules. In any case, long before property dropped 30-40%, something else would happen to spoil the party. Government intervention, or mad scramble by the cash rich to load up with houses. Or something that hasn't even occurred to anybody yet, maybe. Not expecting it to happen is my defence mechanism. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 If I am reading his below graph right he theorises that UK house prices will crash sometime mid-2012 to mid-2013 before beginning another rapid climb in prices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 (edited) If I am reading his below graph right he theorises that UK house prices will crash sometime mid-2012 to mid-2013 before beginning another rapid climb in prices? i was there first, this spiv is clearly a plagiarising charlatan has the added bonus of being far prettier too Edited April 14, 2012 by Georgia O'Keeffe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Too good to be true for many people. When something "would be too good to be true", it rarely happens. How often has something too good to be true happened in your lifetime? Seems to be one of life's rules. In any case, long before property dropped 30-40%, something else would happen to spoil the party. Government intervention, or mad scramble by the cash rich to load up with houses. Or something that hasn't even occurred to anybody yet, maybe. Not expecting it to happen is my defence mechanism. House prices in Northern Ireland are down 50%, is that too good to be true? How about the good old USofA? Spain? All too good to be true? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Interesting, you have come to the same conclusion - a crash in the coming months, then a big climb till 2017, then another crash. If you are right our HPC dream will be answered in the coming 12 months... but it will also be the last buying opportunity for some years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tricksters Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 House prices in Northern Ireland are down 50%, is that too good to be true? How about the good old USofA? Spain? All too good to be true? Not at all. What has happened has happened. But this is England, the most property-obsessed country in the world bar none as far as one can tell. Property is the yardstick by which the bulk of the population measure how well they are doing. If they bought more than 6 or 7 years ago, they are probably ok with a reasonably comfortable, or better, mortgage repayment. Where I live, a fairly well to do Nottinghamshire village, there seems to be zero property angst. I don't know anybody who gives twopence for it all. Certainly there seems little interest in selling and no problems keeping up with comparatively small repayments. My job involves going to lots of different places and liaising with lots of different people. It's not even a topic of conversation. I just don't see any sign of downward pressure here. It's just the way it is. You can quote other countries, but you can't quote this one. (Not yet - admittedly. But we have been saying not yet for years now and unless interest rates climb, which the VIs won't let happen, we can carry on saying it till we are blue in the face). I want to buy a damned house so I hope I'm wrong, by the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 If I am reading his below graph right he theorises that UK house prices will crash sometime mid-2012 to mid-2013 before beginning another rapid climb in prices? Estimated equilibrium - what about other factors. Start of the wiggly line - lots of company pensions, employment rights, savings, so much less debt, better trade deficits, more North Sea oil to chew through, more remnants of industry. End of wiggly line - worsening in all the above plus other large shifts - university fees and more costs lumped onto the young - remember those the ones who are going to prop this whole ponzi housing scam up, plus loads of other most negative effects on affordability. In the cold light of economic day any thought of equilibrium comparison with the past looks like pie in the sky. The combination of the above is sytemic in nature and utterly changes the picture now and in the future. Just the penny hasn't dropped with the population yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Georgia O'Keeffe Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 (edited) . Edited April 15, 2012 by Georgia O'Keeffe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tricksters Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 1.Do you honestly think the cash rich will want to jump in to falling assets? I don't think so. They will wait and see how much further down the prices will go before jumping in. 2.You can see this in Northern Ireland -- 50% off and still very low sales volume -- it's reverse psychology --as one of our developer posters said -- "When prices were high he had to beat buyers off with a stick - now very few are interested although prices are well down" 1. At some point, yes. Who knows when that is though. But there's no shortage of cash rich in the unlikely event of it happening. 2. Prices are high here and buyers are not having to be beaten off with a stick. So our relationship with property does seem to be out of kilter with most other countries. "Homeowners" have their 2007 mindset and they will not be denied. Many (most?) can afford that luxury if they got in at the right time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReggiePerrin Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 It's good to read that so many people think there isn't going to a crash. The fact that people still can't accept that house prices are crashing is very good, because it means we're still in the early stages of the crash... DENIAL!! If prices were this high and everyone was fearful of more price drops then I'd be really worried. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ader Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 It's good to read that so many people think there isn't going to a crash. The fact that people still can't accept that house prices are crashing is very good, because it means we're still in the early stages of the crash... DENIAL!! If prices were this high and everyone was fearful of more price drops then I'd be really worried. I think that might be post of the year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 They could... but so could the currency. The only reason property prices aren't 50% of peak is the currency crashed 30%, property prices are 30% lower than you think they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tricksters Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 It's good to read that so many people think there isn't going to a crash. The fact that people still can't accept that house prices are crashing is very good, because it means we're still in the early stages of the crash... DENIAL!! If prices were this high and everyone was fearful of more price drops then I'd be really worried. Denial on both sides then. I can't accept that house prices aren't crashing - simply because they're not crashing. Why would I be in denial? I would like house prices to drop so that I can damn well get one. But I don't do wishful thinking. The last five years on this site have been awash with people seeing what they want to see instead of what actually is. But here we are and nothing much has changed. Would that it were not so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Lorne Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 I couldn't find this link in a site search and I couldn't find a suitable thread title but still .. hpc pr0N Could U.K. House Prices Fall Again By Another 20%? Housing-Market / UK Housing Apr 13, 2012 - 09:15 AM By: Andrew_Butter http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34103.html ..certainly Central London should be affected adversely by the big time, tax / stamp duty avoiding, property investors who will be hit by the recent budget ....not a place to put your lottery winnings ..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asheron Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 I'm betting a 20% Drop within 4 years.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asheron Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 (edited) They could... but so could the currency. The only reason property prices aren't 50% of peak is the currency crashed 30%, property prices are 30% lower than you think they are. Good point, I like how you think... If you converted your currency from Pounds to Gold or Silver 8 years ago Inflation is such a stealthy theif Edited April 15, 2012 by Asheron Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asheron Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Just did a quick rough calculation and if you were buying an average house 6 years ago of £250,000 you would have paid approx 1,000 ounces of Gold Now you could buy the same House for less than 500 ounces. (this is taking currency devaluation into account) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPin Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Just did a quick rough calculation and if you were buying an average house 6 years ago of £250,000 you would have paid approx 1,000 ounces of Gold Now you could buy the same House for less than 500 ounces. (this is taking currency devaluation into account) Probably why my car costs twice as much to fill up now! Have my wages doubled in the same time? Er. no! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asheron Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Probably why my car costs twice as much to fill up now! Have my wages doubled in the same time? Er. no! Yes the price you pay at the pump is higher because the pound has been devalued. But the government will never tell you this, because they think we are all idiots. They lie and say its because Of high demand or because of Iran or a shortage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asheron Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 So maybe house prices won't drop so much priced in Pounds. But Priced in Gold, Oil, Coffee, Silver, Rice ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormymonday_2011 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 You are denying that house prices are crashing in parts of the UK other than where you stay. I have had this argument many times on here. Just because house prices are not dropping in your locale does not mean that they are not dropping elsewhere. I am not seeing what I want to see -- I live in the UK and have many media reports and indexes to show that where I live house prices have dropped 50%. I have heard from posters in other regions who have seen drops in their areas. You cannot call us all deluded because you personally are not able to buy in your local area. +1 In past UK housing cycles prices have always fallen back to a ratio of 3-4 to 1 of average earnings. We are not near that level yet so prices would appear have some way to fall. IMHO only artificially low interest rates have stopped a repeat of the 1990s crash and recent SVR changes and the expiry of fixes taken out a few years ago means that prop is now crumbling. This time I think any recovery is going to be more anaemic than in the past because the big demographic spike of people born in the period 1955-1965 that drove past booms is going to be trading down or even out of the market within the next decade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 This time I think any recovery is going to be more anaemic than in the past because the big demographic spike of people born in the period 1955-1965 that drove past booms is going to be trading down or even out of the market within the next decade. Who are these people trading down going to be selling to? I don't know many people who want large 4 and 5 bed houses nowadays. Many do not have the family members to fill them and many do not have the cash to heat and run them. More and more people are living alone/single. I do have a problem in my area with 3 bed semis as loads of people in their late 50s/mid 60s are thinking they have won the lotto when they get their big hosue valued by an EA. They then go out and put in silly offers on smaller 3 bed semis thinking they will have a nice stash of cash left over - alas, they then find they cannot sell their own big house but have also stalled the market below them. Stand-off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 In past UK housing cycles prices have always fallen back to a ratio of 3-4 to 1 of average earnings. We are not near that level yet so prices would appear have some way to fall. IMHO only artificially low interest rates have stopped a repeat of the 1990s crash and recent SVR changes and the expiry of fixes taken out a few years ago means that prop is now crumbling. This time I think any recovery is going to be more anaemic than in the past because the big demographic spike of people born in the period 1955-1965 that drove past booms is going to be trading down or even out of the market within the next decade. Nope. Last time house fell back to a ratio of 2.5 earnings - 1996ish. Not going all chartist is that the bust tends to be proportional to the boom. Mainly due to the boom dragging speding in years earlier then the person having to pay interest. Best example of that this time has been new cars. +100 on the demographics. Although the age cohort is 1950->1965. This is a huge bulge of people. I would wager that the bulk of these are in the public sector - not playing to the crowd here but the early 90s recession gutted out the seat warmers of this generation in the private sector. Anecdotally, when interact with any public body the bulk of the people are late 40s upwards. Just as well we've got such a booming economy and surplus to hale 3m as they switch from (I hesitate from saying working) paying tax to drawing a pension. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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