For Those Waiting For An Hpc

[exiges]

For 3yrs now we've had the drip drip of ~0.2% nominal drops, nothing significant, sure by the end of the year we get maybe 1-2% drops, well whoopde doo.

If we continue to have similar drops, are you still going to wait it out, or will there come a point where you throw the towel in ?

(For the sake of argument, let's ignore any HPC in real terms, in terms of gold or your asset of choice)

Edited February 6, 2012 by exiges

[Bruce Banner]

Why would I throw the towel in? It's cheaper to rent and my money's not tied up in an illiquid, depreciating asset.

[Bob Loblaw]

Since you ask, I think the wish of some on here for a massive 30%/40%/50% overnight crash on here will never happen. I bought around 9 months ago for various reasons. Nice affordable house some £50k cheaper than the original 2010 asking price. Paying down the mortgage nicely and getting on with my life without wondering if a section 21 notice will come thudding through the door. Life is too short to write off 5-10 years sitting in a rented house somewhere hoping for jam tomorrow.

[Bloo Loo]

Since you ask, I think the wish of some on here for a massive 30%/40%/50% overnight crash on here will never happen. I bought around 9 months ago for various reasons. Nice affordable house some £50k cheaper than the original 2010 asking price. Paying down the mortgage nicely and getting on with my life without wondering if a section 21 notice will come thudding through the door. Life is too short to write off 5-10 years sitting in a rented house somewhere hoping for jam tomorrow.

yeah, get on with your life.

not possible in a rented home.

[Bruce Banner]

Since you ask, I think the wish of some on here for a massive 30%/40%/50% overnight crash on here will never happen. I bought around 9 months ago for various reasons. Nice affordable house some £50k cheaper than the original 2010 asking price. Paying down the mortgage nicely and getting on with my life without wondering if a section 21 notice will come thudding through the door. Life is too short to write off 5-10 years sitting in a rented house somewhere hoping for jam tomorrow.

I'm expecting another 30% nominal drop, but not overnight, it'll take a few more years.

I've been renting for over five years and am well over £100K in pocket compared to where I would have been had I bought the house I'm renting.

I love my rented home and am getting on with my life with jam today .

[sundance_kid]

Two years is my limit now. The only thing stopping me is the fact I'm in a honeymoon period of saving at the moment so I can vastly reduce my 'potential' mortgage now by knuckling down.

I'm 60% there now as it stands. I won't be waiting any longer than this. Times up for me. As prices standstill till then I'm fine with it. The crash isn't coming, not with this level of propping going on. I'm not bothered any-more now. If they crash hard five years after buying so be it. It's my house, not an investment.

[@contradevian]

Since I went social housing, indefinitely, so no risk of a S21 dropping through the letterbox. Repairs are only a phone call away too. Some nice houses around locally for around £60k which are tempting but no one is exactly "snapping them up" at the moment

Edited February 6, 2012 by "Steed"

[swissy_fit]

Unless there is a significant change in the economic climate causing interest rates to rise and QE to stop there will be no crash.

In "nice" southern towns/areas STR was a winning bet from 2006 to late 2008, it's been a loser since due to the cost of renting relative to cost of mortgages.

It's still a winner if you live in sh*tsville in the north/midlands as price depreciation is still rapid enough to make it worth it.

[Dorkins]

I will never buy a house with a 3x or 4x joint salary mortgage. Whether house prices go up or down is much less important to me than this.

[stuckmojo]

This is the thread that emerges every time one of the VIndexes shows a positive sign.

For what it's worth, in my case I'd probably buy in around 18 months from now, expecting houses to be cheaper (but then I'm oop North).

But If, as it is now, I can rent a house for £700pcm when the purchase price is £300,000, I'll keep renting and save the difference between rent and potential mortgage - and maintenance - and insurance - and so on.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

For 3yrs now we've had the drip drip of ~0.2% nominal drops, nothing significant, sure by the end of the year we get maybe 1-2% drops, well whoopde doo.

If we continue to have similar drops, are you still going to wait it out, or will there come a point where you throw the towel in ?

(For the sake of argument, let's ignore any HPC in real terms, in terms of gold or your asset of choice)

I'd buy if I could find someone selling a decent house at 20% off peak prices.

All the decent house in Northants seem to be 2007 prices + X%.

The agents seem to think they can squeeze a few people for a few quid now based on these high end sales ( which must be why we see the indexes not falling more sharply ) but if you buy one of these over-priced houses you will loose your shirt.

Sales volumes are back to pretty much the post Northern rock collapse so the agents must be hurting.

The crash is here. Some people just don't know it yet

Edited February 6, 2012 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Unexpected]

Why would I throw the towel in? It's cheaper to rent and my money's not tied up in an illiquid, depreciating asset.

But thats only true if you dont have a decent deposit saved up. I think many hpcers have a good deposit so they would be cheaper buying as far as their monthly costs are concerned. I was shocked at just how cheap it was to borrow 150k when I got a quote for a mortgage recently. It came to around £400/month on an interest only basis (interest only being quite good for people who can pay off their mortgage in chunks).

[Bruce Banner]

This is the thread that emerges every time one of the VIndexes shows a positive sign.

For what it's worth, in my case I'd probably buy in around 18 months from now, expecting houses to be cheaper (but then I'm oop North).

But If, as it is now, I can rent a house for £700pcm when the purchase price is £300,000, I'll keep renting and save the difference between rent and potential mortgage - and maintenance - and insurance - and so on.

My rent is £900pcm against a purchase price of £350,000 (was £400,000 when I moved in five years ago). South East by the way.

[Bruce Banner]

But thats only true if you dont have a decent deposit saved up. I think many hpcers have a good deposit so they would be cheaper buying as far as their monthly costs are concerned. I was shocked at just how cheap it was to borrow 150k when I got a quote for a mortgage recently. It came to around £400/month on an interest only basis (interest only being quite good for people who can pay off their mortgage in chunks).

I could pay cash, but I'd lose more in bank interest than I pay in rent.

[guitarman001]

You can see sentiment turning even on this forum.

TBH I'm not sure I even want to buy anymore. You'd have to pay me to live in some of these rabbit hutches.

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

yeah, get on with your life.

not possible in a rented home.

Not in a UK rented home with some spivvy dick of a landlord who feels maintenance is too much hassle, wants 6 months contract and throws a hissy fit if you want to put up some pictures in "his" "investment". Oh and wants to send round prospective tenants whilst you are still living there, wtf do your feelings matter, you're just a cash cow.

Here in Japan I had to pay a "deposit" of 3 months up front which I won't see again but I am here for 2 years and can give 1 months notice anytime. Neighbors are pleasant. No-one at work mentions the price of their house. In the UK a third of my dept were landlords. Japan doesnt have property porn, it has restaurant porn. When the wife described renting in Britain to the letting agent he initially refused to believe before ending up sitting shaking his head and repeatedly asking why anyone would offer such a bad service.

FWIW I think the UK is on the brink of the second wave done and it will be nominal. Austerity in the UK and Europe guarantee a dead economy for years to come. Fact is interest rates are mega low, but without rampant fecking fraud the market is dead and will be until FTBs can buy again.

Edit: damn you autocorrect

Edited February 6, 2012 by FaFa!

['Bart']

Unless there is a significant change in the economic climate

"Sooner or later a crash is coming, and it may be terrific."

Roger Babson, July 6, 1875 – March 5, 1967

The Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression soon followed.

If you think the Western economies can continue to limp on as they have been doing these past few years, creating money out of thin air to pay their bills, getting ever deeper into debt, borrowing money against non-existent future growth, supporting ever increasing numbers of economically inactive citizens, bailing out ever more indebted banks and other financial institutions, not to mention insolvent nations like Greece I say fine. Buy a house.

[Bloo Loo]

Not in a UK rented home with some spivvy dick of a landlord who feels maintenance is too much hassle, wants 6 months contract and throws a hissy fit if you want to put up some pictures in "his" "investment". Oh and wants to send round prospective tenants whilst you are still living there, wtf do your feelings matter, you're just a cash cow.

Here in Japan I had to pay a "deposit" of 3 months up front which I won't see again but I am here for 2 years and can give 1 months notice anytime. Neighbors are pleasant. No-one at work mentions the price of their house. In the UK a third of my dept were landlords. Japan doesnt have property porn, it has restaurant porn. When the wife described renting in Britain to the letting agent he initially refused to believe before ending up sitting shaking his head and repeatedly asking why anyone would offer such a bad service.

FWIW I think the UK is on the brink of the second wave done and it will be nominal. Austerity in the UK and Europe guarantee a dead economy for years to come. Fact is interest rates are mega low, but without rampant fecking fraud the market is dead and will be until FTBs can buy again.

Edit: damn you autocorrect

One should choose ones landlord as one would choose the house.

You are right though, too few rights for tenants means too many spivs in the game.

[Saving For a Space Ship]

yeah, get on with your life.

not possible in a rented home.

When will we ever learn from Scotty...

'You canna change the laws of Physics Krustyics'

[Democorruptcy]

This is the thread that emerges every time one of the VIndexes shows a positive sign.

There might also be another reason

[easy2012]

Not in a UK rented home with some spivvy dick of a landlord who feels maintenance is too much hassle, wants 6 months contract and throws a hissy fit if you want to put up some pictures in "his" "investment". Oh and wants to send round prospective tenants whilst you are still living there, wtf do your feelings matter, you're just a cash cow.

That is caused by a state who interferes with private rights to contract and building and introduce all those protection from eviction things and then a court system that is superslow. Otherwise, I am sure some will be happy to grant long term contracts. And with more buildings, some would HAVE to meet the demand of the customers.

Here in Japan I had to pay a "deposit" of 3 months up front which I won't see again but I am here for 2 years and can give 1 months notice anytime. Neighbors are pleasant. No-one at work mentions the price of their house. In the UK a third of my dept were landlords. Japan doesnt have property porn, it has restaurant porn. When the wife described renting in Britain to the letting agent he initially refused to believe before ending up sitting shaking his head and repeatedly asking why anyone would offer such a bad service.

UK will get there in 20 years time. Back in 1990, every man was talking about rising land prices.

[Bloo Loo]

When will we ever learn from Scotty...

'You canna change the laws of Physics Krustyics'

we canna eat any more hat captain, or we'll blow!

[Monkey]

i'm looking for

a 4 fold increase in my Saving pot,

Interest rates to be at a sensible level again,

my and my G/F's employement future to be more stable.

my and my G/F's wages to be higher and reflect the loss of earnings via no pay rises and the effect of inflation

not needing both of us working and pulling in above average wage to pay for a small house. i want to have the option of being able to afford life with only one of us working full time and the other not at all or part time so we could possibly start a family. a bit like my parents we able to do.

now most of that equals either a reasonalbe HPC or a massive wage inflation.

[RufflesTheGuineaPig]

For 3yrs now we've had the drip drip of ~0.2% nominal drops, nothing significant, sure by the end of the year we get maybe 1-2% drops, well whoopde doo.

This is correct - due to massive government financial intervention, prices haven't fallen much yet.

In addition, people were holding on with their finger nail, hoping prices would skyrocket again.

Of course, the biggest methods of intervention have just finally been withdrawn, with the changes to LHA that came into effect on the 1st Jan. The pace of the crash now will be decided by if the gov chickens out and reverses the LHA changes or if they hold their nerve.

If they chicken out, then prices will drop 5-10% a year. If they hold their nerve, we should see something quite cataclysmic in the next few months as all the BTLers rush for the door.

We all knew the government would try to prevent the HPC at all costs, we all knew it was inevitable, and we all knew it would take a while. There can be no more interest rate drops as mortgage rates have diverged from BoE rates. Banks wont make silly loans any more, and even shared ownership has been exposed as a disaster. The chambers have been fired, the ammo is gone, the gun is empty. For the last year people have been waiting to see if the government had fired 6 rounds or only 5. The gov keeps squeezing the trigger with empty anouncements but all that happens is a dull "click".

A better question would be "when will the bulls admit that the dead-cat bounce is over and they should have got out when they had the chance".

[Cozza]

Since you ask, I think the wish of some on here for a massive 30%/40%/50% overnight crash on here will never happen. I bought around 9 months ago for various reasons. Nice affordable house some £50k cheaper than the original 2010 asking price. Paying down the mortgage nicely and getting on with my life without wondering if a section 21 notice will come thudding through the door. Life is too short to write off 5-10 years sitting in a rented house somewhere hoping for jam tomorrow.

Never is a long time. It will happen but will the country be a nice place to live in at that point? It's not even that great now tbh. We're bailing out this year, thank gud.