rantnrave Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 (edited) All three indices out this week. Last month, Halifax came out with a whopping 2.2% MoM rise (even more without seasonal adjusting) that even they had difficulty justifying. Big fall coming to counter that? Would be 3/3 of the indices if it fell (admittedly the LR data is covering a different month). When was the last time all three fell in a row I wonder? EDIT TO ADD: Forecast is for -0.4% 2nd Edit - Prediction Thread Updated with actual numbers Edited May 4, 2012 by rantnrave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I'm going for -3% its going to be big to counter the 2.2% last month. and bing 3.2% above Niationwides last month. unless they adjust down last months to 0.2%, and then next month adjust the expected -0.4% to -1.4%. this is the thing to watch, the adjusting the previous figures Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 +1.3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koala_bear Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 +1.3% ditto but with last month revised down to -3.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 -2.2 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Monk Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I'm always wrong so I'll go for a positive, +1.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the flying pig Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 most likely a fall if [as seems likely] the big increase last month included an element of error. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nationalist Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I'm going to go for 'we didn't do a mortgage this month so we can't tell you'. Like it.. Reminds me of the Zimbabwe inflation rate. The "basket of goods" used to calculate RPI is empty, therefore inflation is zero. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reck B Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 (edited) I'm going to go for 'we didn't do a mortgage this month so we can't tell you'. I used all of the mortgage funds up last month with my £80,059 purchase. Therefore I can confidently report it will definately be -50.00% Edited May 3, 2012 by Reck B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
57percent Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 This is the index I 'picked' from the start, so I'm sticking with it. Has to be substantially down this month. Maybe a decent headline maker at a time when everything seems pretty bad at the moment. I predict -2.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonboy2010 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 -0.5% but hpoe its -5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 This is the index I 'picked' from the start, so I'm sticking with it. Has to be substantially down this month. Maybe a decent headline maker at a time when everything seems pretty bad at the moment. I predict -2.8% -4.2% I'll go for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peahead Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 -1.7% though willing it to be enough to take average price back under the £160k marker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 (edited) MINUS 2.4% GET IN THERE! Edited May 4, 2012 by rantnrave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dancake Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 -2.4!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Excellent. Wiped out last month. Any revisions? Whats the full Numbers? Can't view the report as I'm abroad with no internet and I'm risking few quid on my mobile bill just to check the numbers this week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 Excellent. Wiped out last month. Any revisions? Whats the full Numbers? Can't view the report as I'm abroad with no internet and I'm risking few quid on my mobile bill just to check the numbers this week! Can't access it yet... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 -2.4!!!! Can I claim nearest prediciton even thought it was tongue in cheek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFlibble Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Lovely Jubbly... That number will be hard to ignore by the MSM, fingers crossed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Hovis Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 (edited) MINUS 2.4% GET IN THERE! What he said Off to check the Daily Express website.... Edit: can't find it there, or anywhere else yet. Too early. Edited May 4, 2012 by Frank Hovis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 Full report here. 160K breached... My link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dancake Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Key facts House prices in the three months to April were 0.3% higher than in the preceding three months (November 2011-January 2012). This was the first increase in prices on this measure of the underlying trend since September 2011 (0.1%), following six successive falls. On a monthly basis, house prices fell by 2.4% in April. This more than offset the previous month's 2.2% increase as prices continue to fluctuate month-to-month. Prices in the three months to April were 0.5% lower than in the same period a year earlier. This measure of the annual rate improved slightly from -0.6% in March and showed the smallest fall in prices since October 2010 (+1.2%). No change in the average UK house price so far this year. The UK average price in April 2012, at £159,883, was virtually the same as in December 2011 (£159,888). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 The main page on the Halifax House Price Index - April 2012 page says this: UK house price growth on an underlying basis remains relatively subdued, according to the latest Halifax House Price Index.Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said: "Prices in the three months to April were 0.3% higher than in the previous quarter, marking the first rise in this measure for seven months. Despite the slight improvement in the underlying trend in recent months, house prices continue to lack real direction with the current UK average price little different to where it was at the end of 2011. The monthly figures continue to fluctuate quite widely with a 2.4% decline in April, wiping out March's 2.2% rise. "The ending of the stamp duty holiday for first-time buyers in late March appears to have boosted home sales early this year as buyers strove to beat the deadline, and has probably contributed to the volatility in house prices in the last few months."We continue to expect little overall movement in prices as the UK economic situation remains challenging." Key factsHouse prices in the three months to April were 0.3% higher than in the preceding three months (November 2011-January 2012). This was the first increase in prices on this measure of the underlying trend since September 2011 (0.1%), following six successive falls. On a monthly basis, house prices fell by 2.4% in April. This more than offset the previous month's 2.2% increase as prices continue to fluctuate month-to-month. Prices in the three months to April were 0.5% lower than in the same period a year earlier. This measure of the annual rate improved slightly from -0.6% in March and showed the smallest fall in prices since October 2010 (+1.2%). No change in the average UK house price so far this year. The UK average price in April 2012, at £159,883, was virtually the same as in December 2011 (£159,888). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 An annualised rate of decline of 25%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.