Changing From Bull Or Bear

[Realistbear]

Poll added so we can get some meaningful stats to digest!

[Bloo Loo]

when the loo doth turn

and you look up

there, the bottom be.

[IP Newcomer]

I've bought a house but I'll only stop being bearish when the average house price is round about three times the average income.

That said I do think that the current lot have a better chance of a soft landing than Labour's to the moon or bust attitude towards house prices.

[numper]

But but, the crash CANNOT BEGIN until the last Bear turns Bull (or at least neither)

[twatmangle]

It matters-not to me whether house prices go up or down. I can live with either. Actually I should benefit from either.

I'm generally bearish, but as I've said in the past, I don't want to be associated with the loonies on here who think that Government policy should be centred about them, or that nobody else should be able to buy a house just because they can't. They would rather the whole economy collapsed so they can buy a 4 bed detached for £1000. I also don't like the unsubtle way in which people seem to take pleasure from other's financial misfortune.

For these reason, I'm not a bear, rather than wanting to be a neither .

[Realistbear]

It matters-not to me whether house prices go up or down. I can live with either. Actually I should benefit from either.

I'm generally bearish, but as I've said in the past, I don't want to be associated with the loonies on here who think that Government policy should be centred about them, or that nobody else should be able to buy a house just because they can't. They would rather the whole economy collapsed so they can buy a 4 bed detached for £1000. I also don't like the unsubtle way in which people seem to take pleasure from other's financial misfortune.

For these reason, I'm not a bear, rather than wanting to be a neither .

What is good for some will be bad for others. IMO the vast majority would benefit from a major HPC (50-60% down from the top) and it may rid this country of the endemic disease known as HPI. But we seem to have institutionalised it and we are immune from any more negative effects high house prices bring. We have created a new class of landlords who take up any slack that may have caused a crash in days gone by.

Credit to Brown he did away with the bust that used to come from HPI. If a bust happens for some other reason that is another matter. But at the moment I do not see any triggers that would bring about a major HPC.

[Realistbear]

27% changing. Any care to declare themselves?

[Bruce Banner]

27% changing. Any care to declare themselves?

Realistbear , Johnny Storm , numper , tomposh101 , Buccaneer

[Realistbear]

Credit to Brown -- you have to be joking.

I am not saying that what he did was in any way good. The opposite in fact. But he pulled it off--a huge HPI boom and no bust.

[Keep Walking]

What is good for some will be bad for others. IMO the vast majority would benefit from a major HPC (50-60% down from the top) and it may rid this country of the endemic disease known as HPI. But we seem to have institutionalised it and we are immune from any more negative effects high house prices bring. We have created a new class of landlords who take up any slack that may have caused a crash in days gone by.

Credit to Brown he did away with the bust that used to come from HPI. If a bust happens for some other reason that is another matter. But at the moment I do not see any triggers that would bring about a major HPC.

The pantomime has been going on to long, with out the markets. The ugly sisters of reality will perform soon, but they hope not to their self destruction, but 20% appears realistic for the coming year!

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/stock-markets/cash-in-hand-04812.aspx

Edited December 8, 2010 by Keep Walking

[Fawkandles]

The question is lacking clarity imo. Lacks definitions and timescales.

I see that i'm the only person choosing neither-to-bull, so let me explain my choice.

I think the market willl see declining prices for another 12 months or so, but modestly, falling another 10-15%, then a steady rise.

I get the feeling 'bears' on this forum think that is a treasonous viewpoint, and that prices surely need to fall another 40% or whatever. I think that is unrealistic, hence my currrent neither status.

As for changing to bull, the question says "do you see your self changing from" but doesnt give a timescale, and i think a year is not a long time in this market. Given that i think the price CHANGE is more likely to reverse than accelerate, my choice makes sense to me.

[Bloo Loo]

I am not saying that what he did was in any way good. The opposite in fact. But he pulled it off--a huge HPI boom and no bust.

you can still be in a BUST and have apparent growth...

the Growth we have now might just be a tad due to the £160BN EVERY YEAR in extra borrowing...

in this bust, we will see high order capital goods adjust to meet the rising low order goods...this can be acheived by static high order goods and fast rising low order goods...which is exactly what we are seeing in rising fuel and food prices.

the result will be, inevitably, lowering of disposable income for the masses, less spending on luxuries and either we get inflation, which we wont, in which case, house prices will fall as credit supply remains static.

[Slumpmonkey Returns]

I am not saying that what he did was in any way good. The opposite in fact. But he pulled it off--a huge HPI boom and no bust.

I am so worried that RB has finally lost the plot that I have decided to post for the first time in two years!

There is only one way in which house prices are going and that is down. There is no way that wages are going to go up and the banks will not be lending silly multiples again for a VERY long time.

Take a chill pill my impatient bear!

[Harry Monk]

I am not saying that what he did was in any way good. The opposite in fact. But he pulled it off--a huge HPI boom and no bust.

Well thank God for that then, at last somebody who knows how to change the Law of Economics

[Realistbear]

The question is lacking clarity imo. Lacks definitions and timescales.

I see that i'm the only person choosing neither-to-bull, so let me explain my choice.

I think the market willl see declining prices for another 12 months or so, but modestly, falling another 10-15%, then a steady rise.

I get the feeling 'bears' on this forum think that is a treasonous viewpoint, and that prices surely need to fall another 40% or whatever. I think that is unrealistic, hence my currrent neither status.

As for changing to bull, the question says "do you see your self changing from" but doesnt give a timescale, and i think a year is not a long time in this market. Given that i think the price CHANGE is more likely to reverse than accelerate, my choice makes sense to me.

About where I see things going. IMO that Neither status. Hard to be too scientific.

[@contradevian]

Remaining bear.

"And he piled upon the whale's white hump the sum of all the rage and hate felt by his whole race. If his chest had been a cannon he would have shot his heart upon it."

[headrow]

Headrow - Bull to Bear?

Ask a stupid question get a stupid answer.

[Harry Monk]

27% changing.

Before you added the option of "Not Changing", 100% were changing .

[Slumpmonkey Returns]

you're changing the definitions now.

It doesn't actually matter whether it's inflation or deflation, nominal or real - the yardstick I use is 'what is my view of the UK economy and society and would I want my daughter to live here when she becomes an adult?'

My simple answer is that we're f*cked in so many ways I find it hard to list. And I will try to encourage my dort to go and study in Oz when she grows up in the hope she'll meet a nice Aussie boy and settle down there.

So - I'm staying a bear.

House prices in Oz are even more crazy than in the UK

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

There are three choices and none of them is a club because membership is open to any or all!

Moving on the Bull or Bear and if Bear why so long as a Neither?

Well if one may blow one's own trumpet, neither since mid-2006 has been a pretty good call, prices nominally the same

When I make my next call, the market will follow

Edited December 8, 2010 by daiking

[winkie]

Prices were rising with 7% to 9% interest rates and they are hovering at 0.5% interest rates....that must be telling you something....property is too high and unsustainable...apart from buying it to live in, people buy it for growth and /or income it has neither.

One good way in judging sentiment would be the guest appearance of sibley to advise us of all the buyers with pots of easy money out bidding and gazumping each other, property being snapped up at bargain prices and increasing by £200 per week...buy now or you miss the boat and be priced out forever....no chance of seeing that on the horizon any time soon.

[Alistair Campbell]

Prices were rising with 7% to 9% interest rates and they are hovering at 0.5% interest rates....that must be telling you something....property is too high and unsustainable...apart from buying it to live in, people buy it for growth and /or income it has neither.

One good way in judging sentiment would be the guest appearance of sibley to advise us of all the buyers with pots of easy money out bidding and gazumping each other, property being snapped up at bargain prices and increasing by £200 per week...buy now or you miss the boat and be priced out forever....no chance of seeing that on the horizon any time soon.

Can I advise you that there's never been a better time to buy ? With falling sales those guys with a big deposit can really clean up. Buy now before the Halifax results come out. After the results it will be an even better time to buy. I don't post much but have been veering towards being a bear for some time. I've changed now and look forward to taking a strong bear position this winter.

Edited December 8, 2010 by Alistair Campbell

[longtomsilver]

I no longer expect a house price crash!

currency crash on the other hand ? who knows, we have p155ed off the Chinese so much that further devaluation (40% on top of the 40% seen so far) won't matter and it is no coincidence that we are shipping our manufacturing from China to India and David Cameron is very unromantically getting into bed with Indias leaders.

GBP will gain parity with USD

Gold/Oil will no longer be priced in $ but a basket of world currencies (GBP+USD+EUR will be weighted at a collective 5-10%, breadbasket countries (Russia/Africa) taking 15-20% and the lions share consituting the oil/gold/mineral producing countries (Russia makes a second showing + Middle East + Canada + Asia + Australia etc etc)

House prices overall will become very cheap but everything else will get very, very expensive.

Edited December 8, 2010 by tomposh101

[roadtoruin]

No converts so Far?

The definition of a bear must mean having an expectaion, from here, of at least another 20% down.

10-15% down makes you a Niether IMO. I am going for another 10%.

A bull would see 5% down to even up in the next year or so (there can't be any bulls around).

Sorry RB but that's garbage, and much as you might want to, you don't get to decide the criteria. The only question is the timeframe, say 2 years. Down (nominal) you're a bear, up a bull. Remembering that the bear/bull thing is associated with the stock market and that 10% down is defined as a SM crash...

So we have already had a HP crash after peak, then a false recovery, now we're going to have:

• a steady trickle of increasing unemployment

• reduction in SMI, increasing the marginal repo rate

• reduction in HB levels for new applicants, decreasing yield on BTL in city centres

• more pressure on the deficit due to the Euro situation

• almost total lack of mortgages available to FTBs

• wage increases zero or lagging under inflation

• in medium term potential big drops in student numbers, destroying the student-BTL market that has hoovered up lots of FTB-type properties

• eventually - increases in IRs

My guess remains at 20-30% nominal down from here over 3-4 years, crash therefore around 50% real from peak 2007. Maybe not steep enough a crash for some, but enough to keep me firmly bearish.

[VeryMeanReversion]

I'm changing bear to neither.

In nominal terms, I expect <10% drop if things stay under control. If interest rates shoot up due to a crisis then a major crash is still likely.

In real terms, a 25% drop would be a best guess.

So IMO, the balance of probability says we get devaluation, inflation, and government backing the banking sector at all times therefore the bulk of the price drops will only be in real terms.

Since most of my savings were getting sub-RPI rates, I have now bought a house and using the interest from my NS&I index-linked certs to pay the mortgage (all the interest and about 40% of the repayment portion). My net housing costs have now dropped from £975pcm to £300pcm at current RPI/BoE rates.