French Property - Price Increases For 2008

[whiterabbit]

Anyone with very recent experience near Monaco. Specifically Menton to Nice. Agents keep telling me this area is immune to falls

[davidg]

Didn't you read AgentImmos posts above?

While Monaco is, perhaps, immune to falls due to the tax situation the rest isn't. Nice... a lot of it is a bit rough or run down to be honest, you'd have to be careful exactly where you bought. Up to Menton may be ok, some nice Hausmannian style architecture, but west of Nice (where I lived for some time) is the car-jacking capital of France. Estrosi (the new mayor) may "improve" Nice a bit a la Jacques Médecin. The rail link to Marseille should be upgraded giving better communications with Paris and Lyon.

[whiterabbit]

Didn't you read AgentImmos posts above?

While Monaco is, perhaps, immune to falls due to the tax situation the rest isn't. Nice... a lot of it is a bit rough or run down to be honest, you'd have to be careful exactly where you bought. Up to Menton may be ok, some nice Hausmannian style architecture, but west of Nice (where I lived for some time) is the car-jacking capital of France. Estrosi (the new mayor) may "improve" Nice a bit a la Jacques Médecin. The rail link to Marseille should be upgraded giving better communications with Paris and Lyon.

Yes I read it but mean specific to that little area. I am not interested in Nice but east specifically BS, RCM or maybe Menton. I have been watching very closely and have yet to see any pubiscised drops. Agents are saying its still OK outside this forum and am wondering if anyone could point me to actual porperties that had been reduced etc.

Don't worry am not going to jump in and pay too much but want to be able to plan a little when to transfer to Euros etc.

BTW is the crime really that bad? Are robberies a big issue too?

[felix]

Anyone with very recent experience near Monaco. Specifically Menton to Nice. Agents keep telling me this area is immune to falls

Yes, I went there in April/May also hoping/thinking that some form of a correction should be going on.

Several facts that struck me:

A) Already during late April the whole Cote d'Azur was completely overcrowded.

There is plenty for sale, but prices refuse to drop.

C) The weather was just pure gold!

Getting back to A. Where do all these people come from? Well 1/3 is over 60 years old and is simply too rich. These are all people that are of the age that nice retirement plans were put in place and at the same time they will have saved some, so they are now loaded and spend it. 1/3 are families (with children) that come from Paris for a (long) weekend. Since France offers the fantastic TGV soon with internet on board, I think it is not unimaginable people may even kind of reside in the South of France and work during weekdays in Paris. 1/3 the necessary immigrant work force to keep the place going. What you will not find, are many bachelors like me!

In regards to B. No way prices can go up while prices in Spain are collapsing and in other parts of France are surely dropping too. So what is the big difference here? The Russians! I think half of Cap d'Antibes has been bought by them.

And what can I say about C? Not many places in the world where it is so nice! Spain is more often too hot.

All in all I kind of lost interest in buying and living there now, as I consider myself too young (40) for the area.

[davidg]

I think it is not unimaginable people may even kind of reside in the South of France and work during weekdays in Paris.

Some maybe do but hard to imagine many do given salaries are low in France.

Nice to Cannes has car-jacking problems, up to Menton may be ok.

[Agentimmo]

Felix, for a 40yr old bachelor, you should head out for a night or two in Cannes or even Antibes. Plenty of "young single things" around these 2 places. Best areas are the old ports in both towns. I'm married, but have plenty of friends who tell me it's easy to meet new friends - there are some good little bars that have live music on Fri/Sat nights that seem popular with the ladies

Some other tips based on your last coupe of emails :

- Monaco may fall, but only very slightly. Too much laundered money from all over the globe pours into this town

- Menton, being part of France, will fall. By how much ? No idea, but if the average fall is 40% in France, Menton and the other places won't be far off. Expect 1 and 2 beds to fall most. There are a lot less houses in this town and its proximity to Monaco means houses retain better value. (ie. because you get a pool and a garden and are 15mins from Monaco for about 1/7th of the price.....)

- Buying in the centre of Nice, from the Promenade back to the Vieux Nice area is fine, if a bit noisy from April to Sept. The tramway is great.

Places to avoid are north Nice (except Cimiez) and much of the west.

- Towns between Nice and Cannes are fine if you can get somewhere within 5-10 mins drive or bus from the beach. These places will fall in the next slump. Even today, I'd offer 25% less than the advertised price to see if the seller bites. Unless the place you are looking at is already lower than other similar places for sale, don't pay more than 80% of the advertised price today. EA's down here are experts at trying it on. They have extremely brass necks!!!

- Best areas? Antibes and Cannes are good places. Golfe-Juan is a bit small and DEAD outside the summer season. Mandelieu is fine if you are near the beach, but avoid the new builds in the north of the town , near the golf course (not the Old Course in the centre, the other one...). Theole-Sur-Mer is fine as well, but does seem to be quiet in the winter and full of retired northern europeans

Hope that helps a little. Me? I'm still waiting a couple of years. I find that in France the market tends to lag behind the UK mrket and falls are slower (with rises being less also). However, it will fall

[Agentimmo]

Some maybe do but hard to imagine many do given salaries are low in France.

Nice to Cannes has car-jacking problems, up to Menton may be ok.

The car jacking rates have been slashed in the last couple of years. Mayor Estrosi is tackling this head on. I've never had this problem. It really is common sense for the most part though.

- When you hire a car, ask if you can have a number plate with 06 or some other dept other than 60. This 60 signifies the Marne dept and is used by most of the car hire companies as the MOT is cheaper.

- If the hire car has a white, plastic "F" sticker on the back, ask the hirer to remove it. This is a giveaway that the car has a tourist in it.

- When you drive in town, keep the windows up and DOORS locked from the inside. Most car-jackers arrive on a motorbike and steal through the front passenger door/window. Air-con is great, so use it:)

- Never leave handbags , wallets etc in view even when driving. This attracts the thief.

- When you get out the car to pay for parking, or fill up for petrol close and lock the doors. Simple, but effective!

As I say, I've never had a problem although it does exist. Better still, if you're in Nice, give up the car and take the bus/tramway......;;

[davidg]

A couple of extra datapoints.

French borrowing power for mortgages has dropped 20% in the last year due to the credit crunch (source: le Dauphine Libere). Interesting programme on Capital last night (M6 Channel - see www.m6.fr). Their experts thought an 8% drop per year over the next 3 years with (as Agentimmo has noted) a big difference between towns with jobs (Lyon, Paris etc) and the countryside. An estate agent friend is working on a 5-8% drop over 5 years. You takes your money. However what is clear is that there are going to be some places that are next to impossible to shift - too far from major towns and the locals either won't or can't afford to commute long distances.

Antibes - la Gaffe used to a a pickup place for the ladies - I think their house band is BlahBlah who are something of a legend down south. A schoolmate is or was a partner in the place. There are a couple of good clubs in Juan les Pins too and a good live music venue in Biot. Biot is not bad but maybe a bit far from the sea. Mouans Sartoux, which has had a house boom due to the rail link with Grasse reopening should not be considered unless you are 100% resistant to Tiger mosquito bites :-).

[Saving For a Space Ship]

"Paris maxed: The eurozone braces itself for a French property downturn"

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8eefdb4c-89a0-11...00779fd18c.html

[pinktulipsshine]

dear Agentimmo

very useful guide for a tourist coming to UK. the street crimes are increasing people find their luggage not safe

i appreciate your comments on car jacking.

[Agentimmo]

On TF1 lunchtime news today. Article about falling house prices. Went to a small town near Rennes , possibly a suburb?

EA stating that transactions had fallen about 15% in 6 months. I assumed he already had low volumes.

But the big news from the EA was that selling prices have plummeted by about 30% from same time last year. Hurrah

This was straight from the front line. Camera also showed boarded up EA offices. Hurrah again!

The EA's advice was that to sell in this market you needed to be prepared to slash the price.

Now, in France the stats from the various agencies tend to lag well behind reality, IMO. Also, many agencies are VI's.

There are no national combined figures like there exists in the UK. Hence for this reason , this tv report on the news was BIG and confirms what I'd already heard as anecdotal evidence. As I said a lot earlier on this thread, given the size of France and population density, property outside the big cities will fall hard and fast. The cities will do also, but may take a little longer

To finish the report, the EA said he couldn't call the bottom of this market (Hurrah for the last time !)

<edited for typos>

Edited October 1, 2008 by Agentimmo

[wadisgod]

(Hurrah for the last time !)

Lets hope its not "Hurrah" for the last time

Keep the good news comming!

[felix]

- When you hire a car, ask if you can have a number plate with 06 or some other dept other than 60. This 60 signifies the Marne dept and is used by most of the car hire companies as the MOT is cheaper.

Amazing and true!

I am in Monaco now. Today is Sunday. I will walk into some real estate agents tomorrow just to get a feel of the sentiment.

[Phillip Temple]

Hi Felix, contact me via the Med In Heaven web site. I know more about the Nice market than anybody else, including the estate agencies. I also know all the Monaco estate agents, but buying in Monaco is very different. There are certain laws you need to be aware of. We can meet up either in Monaco or Nice on Tuesday late afternoon for a drink if you like? I will be more than happy to tell you everything you need to know.

Phillip.

[Agentimmo]

Hi Felix, contact me via the Med In Heaven web site. I know more about the Nice market than anybody else, including the estate agencies. I also know all the Monaco estate agents, but buying in Monaco is very different. There are certain laws you need to be aware of. We can meet up either in Monaco or Nice on Tuesday late afternoon for a drink if you like? I will be more than happy to tell you everything you need to know.

Phillip.

Philip, how far do you see the Riviera and Monaco markets falling in % terms?

I'd assume Monaco will see a small downturn but nothing compared to the "real world" just across its border

Would you agree ?

[Mad about property]

Anyone with very recent experience near Monaco. Specifically Menton to Nice. Agents keep telling me this area is immune to falls

I visited Villefranche Sur Mer a village the other side of Nice (towards Monaco), its a place where you get a 1 bedroom 40m2 apartment with no parking for around €350.000. Its crazy.....well a drop in prices are being seen in more than one estate agents window and yes by around €30.000.

[whiterabbit]

I visited Villefranche Sur Mer a village the other side of Nice (towards Monaco), its a place where you get a 1 bedroom 40m2 apartment with no parking for around €350.000. Its crazy.....well a drop in prices are being seen in more than one estate agents window and yes by around €30.000.

I know it well, theres a couple of UK agents there who have yet to lower any prices. The old town will probably be more resilient than the new builds further up into the mountains I would guess?

[Alba]

I visited Villefranche Sur Mer a village the other side of Nice (towards Monaco), its a place where you get a 1 bedroom 40m2 apartment with no parking for around €350.000. Its crazy.....well a drop in prices are being seen in more than one estate agents window and yes by around €30.000.

You can contrast this with the other end of the Med.

I have a 58m2 duplex apartment in the centre of one of the old Roman towns in the Aude.

I have it for sale at 147,000 euros FAI and there has been minimal interest from the French, and with no interest so far from foreign buyers.

When I bought the apartment over 6 years ago there was limited availability, now there are plenty to choose from.

The problem with France is the high immobilier fees and French CGT of 18% plus of course the additional UK 2% CGT add on. This seriously depletes an already reduced price.

Given the current state of the French market, I don't anticipate a sale anytime soon.

[Agentimmo]

Just finished reading the copy of NICE MATIN I bought at lunchtime.

The cat and mouse game between estate agents and the public is OVER.

The EA's are now in such a state, they need transactions to survive. Nice Matin has a 2 page spread re. the housing market and it doesn't make pretty reading

I guess they have now moved on from the denial phase.

http://www.nicematin.com/ra/26/151118

- Worst market for at least 10 years

- Prices at least 20% down

- EA's shutting up shop

- New builds seeing price slashes

- Over supply in old and new build.

- Sellers still resisitant, unless they are forced sellers. (but this will change with time........... )

I've been saying for ages. Don't offer anything less than 20% under the price you see in an EA's window. I'll now revise that to 30%, given the turmoil on the markets this last week.

Great news for all HPC'ers who live in La Belle France. It may take a few years, but the chances of young and the not so young who live and work down here of being able to buy their own place is improving month on month with these price falls. Only the speculators and holiday home owners will feel the pain..........but that's a small price to pay, n'est-ce pas ?

[Agentimmo]

You can contrast this with the other end of the Med.

I have a 58m2 duplex apartment in the centre of one of the old Roman towns in the Aude.

I have it for sale at 147,000 euros FAI and there has been minimal interest from the French, and with no interest so far from foreign buyers.

When I bought the apartment over 6 years ago there was limited availability, now there are plenty to choose from.

The problem with France is the high immobilier fees and French CGT of 18% plus of course the additional UK 2% CGT add on. This seriously depletes an already reduced price.

Given the current state of the French market, I don't anticipate a sale anytime soon.

I sympathise with your plight a little. But the "problem" is not a French "problem". These taxes have always existed. The "high immo fees" you mention were actually halved from 11% (for the govt stamp duty part) to 6% about 11 years ago, making it cheaper to buy a place. The taxes on property discouraged speculation. Not a bad thing , imo

What we've seen in France is a mirror of eleswhere. Cheap credit creating a bubble. Speculation on a massive scale from the French and foreign "investors".

Outside of large cities, the French property market used to be pretty mundane , with little or no HPI. 3 beds bought for 30K in 1986 were sold for the same price 8 years later. Then it all started going north after 2000.

I was offered the "chance" to buy the appartment I rented in Paris in 1994. 50m square for 200K€. I refused and 2 years later it was down 30%.

If I'm honest, I expect your appt to fall back 50% in this downturn. Maybe less if you are lucky?

You'll struggle to find a UK buyer as well, as the euro is now way too high vs the pound. I was saying 12 months ago that the wise sellers had already left the market.

But if you've already had it for 6 years, then why not keep it and enjoy visits to it from time to time? You live in a lovely part of the country.

[Alba]

I sympathise with your plight a little. But the "problem" is not a French "problem". These taxes have always existed. The "high immo fees" you mention were actually halved from 11% (for the govt stamp duty part) to 6% about 11 years ago, making it cheaper to buy a place. The taxes on property discouraged speculation. Not a bad thing , imo

What we've seen in France is a mirror of eleswhere. Cheap credit creating a bubble. Speculation on a massive scale from the French and foreign "investors".

Outside of large cities, the French property market used to be pretty mundane , with little or no HPI. 3 beds bought for 30K in 1986 were sold for the same price 8 years later. Then it all started going north after 2000.

I was offered the "chance" to buy the appartment I rented in Paris in 1994. 50m square for 200K€. I refused and 2 years later it was down 30%.

If I'm honest, I expect your appt to fall back 50% in this downturn. Maybe less if you are lucky?

You'll struggle to find a UK buyer as well, as the euro is now way too high vs the pound. I was saying 12 months ago that the wise sellers had already left the market.

But if you've already had it for 6 years, then why not keep it and enjoy visits to it from time to time? You live in a lovely part of the country.

The price I have it advertised for at the moment is an absolute steal in terms of what is being offered for the money.

Who would have thought a 58sqm apartment (If I was pretentious I could call it a duplex penthouse) was available in the S. of France for about £116,000? .

I could continue to enjoy it, as you say, but have decided to sell it for 2 main reasons. Number 1, having explored the area all around, I am bored and want to move on to pastures new. I regularly travel along the Med to Barcelona and beyond as well as east to the C'd A and northern Italy. Number 2, the T.F, TdH, factors fees, ad hoc repair bills, insurance and standing charges for water and electric, all add up to a sizeable annual sum. The current fall in the pound against the euro also does not help.

If it remains unsold, I will probably make short visits when I can't stand the British weather, and swop it for other European and long haul located properties, as I did last year.

I wouldn't contemplate reducing it much further. I would rather mothball it.

I don't want to rent it because it would upset me if it was trashed. I am very fastidious.

With hindsight I should have probably stretched to buy in Cannes, because I never tire of that city or the hinterland etc.

[Macluis]

Who would have thought a 58sqm apartment (If I was pretentious I could call it a duplex penthouse) was available in the S. of France for about £116,000? .

It's damn expensive...even the local woudn't want to buy such small flat. It's a student market...but you know student, don't have the money and bank don't lend any more to such risky group. Who is left? the lost english...i guess not anymore..with all the press that has been done through newspaper and media, everybody knows that a housing correction has started in France and elsewhere (not to say worldwide)..it will take 10 years -2 decade to come back to a normal level - forgetting the financial crisis-

Now people (the expat) start to understand that "stone" is not the main value- on the way they forgot the family values. So instead of expatraiting themselves and cutting all link with their children , gran children ...they will start going back locally and enjoy the warmth of the family reunion.

Now , the local - be it French , English - understand that a correction of the real estate is ongoing - somthing that could be of the scale of 1929. I don't even talk about 1990 - as we had a mild recession and the banking system was functionning well in France and UK.

Indeed price will fall to 40% or more...more meaing that it will not have any more the value (quantitative and qualitative) it use to have after year 2000. It will not be any more associated with wealth but instead with burden... at least we are in this part of the cycle.

Edited October 12, 2008 by Macluis

[librarising]

I posted on this thread back in May with some observations about our flat in Nice and the way local agents were behaving, especially the agent we use to let the place furnished. Here's an update.

I said that in May there were more properties in the windows and on the websites, but that the asking prices were the same. Now there are plenty more properties up there, page after page of them. Our agent is advertising something like 7 or 8 times as many properties for sale as they were a year ago. Also I would say the asking prices are about 10% lower today.

I know of one flat in our block that sold about a month ago. Don't know the price, but if any of you know of a place where I can look it up I will do so and comment on the price achieved.

One interesting this is about rentals. Our agent does quite a lot of letting (this may be why he's still in business). Our tenants have been there for about 18 months. No rent increase was suggested this year - and no rent cut either for that matter. But the agent is advertising hardly any properties for rental. I had a look around and I would say that this seems to be reflected elsewhere. Not so many rental offers on pap.fr either. So demand is strong in the rental market in Nice? Maybe a local might confirm this? If it's true, I wonder why?

Edited October 13, 2008 by librarising

[Agentimmo]

I posted on this thread back in May with some observations about our flat in Nice and the way local agents were behaving, especially the agent we use to let the place furnished. Here's an update.

I said that in May there were more properties in the windows and on the websites, but that the asking prices were the same. Now there are plenty more properties up there, page after page of them. Our agent is advertising something like 7 or 8 times as many properties for sale as they were a year ago. Also I would say the asking prices are about 10% lower today.

I know of one flat in our block that sold about a month ago. Don't know the price, but if any of you know of a place where I can look it up I will do so and comment on the price achieved.

One interesting this is about rentals. Our agent does quite a lot of letting (this may be why he's still in business). Our tenants have been there for about 18 months. No rent increase was suggested this year - and no rent cut either for that matter. But the agent is advertising hardly any properties for rental. I had a look around and I would say that this seems to be reflected elsewhere. Not so many rental offers on pap.fr either. So demand is strong in the rental market in Nice? Maybe a local might confirm this? If it's true, I wonder why?

October is the month uni's start again, so there'll be a lot of students trying to find an appartment.

Also, you've noticed that there are plenty more properties up for sale. This confirms what I've heard - landlords that previously rented are trying to exit the market. It's been like this since just after the summer. All those holiday flats will be lookign for buyers as well. Many want to cash in now, but the smart money got out 12-18mnths ago. Only the uninformed and readers of Nice Matin are left...........

[davidg]

Now people (the expat) start to understand that "stone" is not the main value- on the way they forgot the family values. So instead of expatraiting themselves and cutting all link with their children , gran children ...they will start going back locally and enjoy the warmth of the family reunion.

A good point and where my parents live north of Dordoigneshire there are stories of Brits selling up and going home.

I'm keeping an eye on the Paris market. According to the press this is one market that is still resisting. However I've noticed a lot of appts appearing and at prices one would not have seen 2-3 years ago. So I think the official figures are lagging reality by a good 12 months.

Alain Dinin head of property group Nexity says 180,000 people may be laid off in the building sector in the next 12 months. The FNAIM has registered a -3.2% drop in prices in September (-5.1% for apartments and -1.2% for houses).