The Welcome Thread For New Members

[Bubble_Bobble]

Hi,

Have been lurking for a couple of months.

Originally started thinking about buying my own place about 8 years or so ago, but for most of that time it's been frustratingly just out of reach. Haven't had a gf who I would want to get a mortgage with in that time. Now I'm earning more and have good savings I could easily buy even on my own (once settled in a new job following redundancy)... but stubbonly refuse to on the basis of properties being way over-priced (in my opinion).

I'm no expert but try to educate myself and form an opinion on what the future will hold re HPI or HPC. The more I think about it, the more I convince myself it's going to be the latter. Maybe that's wishful thinking because it would suit me down to the ground but I'm the kinda guy to trust my instincts and so there is no way I will even think about buying at the moment. Trouble is, the only people who agree with me are ALL on here. My friends look at me with derision when I even suggest the possibility of a fall. "Yeah, how long have you been thinking that?" they ask! well ok, maybe I did think the same thing last year. But just becauase it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it never will. I'm sticking to my guns even if I might, just might, miss the boat (or bandwagon) that every man and his dog seem desperate to jump on. The alternative is a much higher risk of shafting myself with a huge mortgage, rising IRs and falling house prices for many years to come.

During the time that I've been following this site, and news events, I've become really interested in what will happen. One way or the other, it's going to be a very interesting 1-3 years ahead and I will continue to follow things closely.

S.

[Ro-Jaws]

Hi,

Just a quick first post - been reading the posts of this forum for some time now & decided to join.

Came across this site last year because I was looking for info about HPI... why?... Today's house prices just don't seem sustainable.

Was an FTB in Belfast about 30 months ago & I thought the seller got a good price then... since June 2004 prices have pretty much doubled. Mixed emotions... I'd rather have more realistic valuations across the market. Might have got onto the property ladder... but when will I be able to move up it at these prices?

My brother is a FTB & he just can't afford anything... the last few places that are within his budget these days - you wouldn't touch them.

Planning to get in a position to STR over the next few months... as I said, I dunno how house prices can be so inflated, so hopefully cash in before the bubble pops.

With January's interest rate raise... looks like sentiment is really shifting [shifted?] in other parts of the UK... but in Belfast... houses are currently sitting on the market for a few weeks and then getting over the asking price [which continues to go up all the time]. There's still a lot of momentum in the housing market it seems - but so many people think that they CANNOT loose in property & will hand over as much as they can borrow.

Sentiment will change I believe, but this is Northern Ireland - no experience of the last HPC and well... illogical behaviour does tend to perpetuate over here.

Yeah... 2007 is going to be an interesting year.

[precipice]

Just a 6-month lurker breaking cover.

No great vested interest, other than a horrified fascination with the muppetry going on out there.

Cambridge home-owner, if anyone's keeping stats.

(and not that pile of rubble on the 'developer bailing out' topic, although I'm pretty sure I cycle past it on my way to work. I'll have a hard stare tomorrow.)

[Squiggsy]

Hi,

I started looking at the site before Christmas, but a lot more closely over the last few days! So hello to everyone, it's been a fun read so far!

My situation is this, sold my house last October to clear a few debts (still have some more to go, all now allocated to fixed rate personal loans from reputable companies).

Myself and my girlfriend were looking to buy, up to £250k, but as neither of us have savings it would need to be on a 100% mortgage.

Don't want to overstretch as have plans for family in next 18 months or so, as I'm 39 and she's 33 this year.

Question is - do we buy now, or rent for 6 / 12 months. This would probably give us enough time to raise a 5% deposit. My purely personal view is that prices can't soar after the inflation / interest rate news, hence 'wait and see' would be the best option. My girlfriend still anticipates price rises.

We're looking around Walthamstow (E17), as we both work in City / Docklands (combined salary just under £100k - sorry, I know that must make some of you spit - total loan outgoings between us about £1,200 a month. Note I'm happy to leave loans in place as they have fixed payments / fixed end dates) and want to have a half-decent commute. Also there seem to be quite a few 3 bed houses around there up to £250k.

My worry would be buying now and the £250k house dropping to £200k by end year, not so much because of negative equity because we want a home, not just an investment - but clearly the difference on mortgage payments between £200k and £250k would be noticeable!

Any ideas? Do people think London might rise regardless of what the rest of the country might do?

Cheers,

Anthony

[Second Time Around]

Yet another lurker breaking cover! I began looking at the site following a casual reference to HPC in one of the Sunday newspapers late 2005, but have only felt like joining in now. I felt that house prices in my area (West Midlands) had reached "top" in 2004/2005 and was puzzled why they seemed to confound logic and kept going up (although they have cooled in the last year). Thanks to reading this site I was alerted to the significance of BTL, MEW, VI/Media and other factors in extending the boom in house prices. It then all began to make sense!

Like some of the contributors I recall the last HPC in the late '80s/early'90s. I was already a homeowner at the time, but I recall the frustration of being priced out of the market when trying to move up to a family home. However, the wait did us no harm in the end as we finally bought a "wreck" in late '95 which, now fully restored, is worth substantially more than the 83K we paid for it. Based on my experience of the last HPC I would encourage anyone to sit out the next few years and save hard if they can as the prospects should only improve to get value for money. I do not buy the idea that "this time it's different".

I share the confidence expressed by others recently that sentiment has started to change significantly and we are at the "tipping point". I recall that it took some time before people realised that house prices could go down in the last crash and the trends took some time to define themselves. However, by 1992, there seemed to be resignation to the negative equity which by then was affecting significant numbers of homeowners and the interest rate rise (to 15%?) that followed Britain's withdrawal from the ERM was the shock to the homebuying voters which turned them against the Major government. No spin machine could hide the facts from people by then and it won't this time.

I acknowledge that I am not a FTB and I am not in a position to STR, but I feel that it's worth reminding some people on the site that many different people have an interest in lower house prices. My interest in a falling market is that I want to trade up to a bigger home when my wife and I get to retire so we are saving hard now and looking to buy in 5-7 years time when they will be more affordable.

Finally, just to say that I really enjoy the site and have found it quite addictive.

[Son of Taeper]

Yet another lurker breaking cover! I began looking at the site following a casual reference to HPC in one of the Sunday newspapers late 2005, but have only felt like joining in now. I felt that house prices in my area (West Midlands) had reached "top" in 2004/2005 and was puzzled why they seemed to confound logic and kept going up (although they have cooled in the last year). Thanks to reading this site I was alerted to the significance of BTL, MEW, VI/Media and other factors in extending the boom in house prices. It then all began to make sense!

Like some of the contributors I recall the last HPC in the late '80s/early'90s. I was already a homeowner at the time, but I recall the frustration of being priced out of the market when trying to move up to a family home. However, the wait did us no harm in the end as we finally bought a "wreck" in late '95 which, now fully restored, is worth substantially more than the 83K we paid for it. Based on my experience of the last HPC I would encourage anyone to sit out the next few years and save hard if they can as the prospects should only improve to get value for money. I do not buy the idea that "this time it's different".

I share the confidence expressed by others recently that sentiment has started to change significantly and we are at the "tipping point". I recall that it took some time before people realised that house prices could go down in the last crash and the trends took some time to define themselves. However, by 1992, there seemed to be resignation to the negative equity which by then was affecting significant numbers of homeowners and the interest rate rise (to 15%?) that followed Britain's withdrawal from the ERM was the shock to the homebuying voters which turned them against the Major government. No spin machine could hide the facts from people by then and it won't this time.

I acknowledge that I am not a FTB and I am not in a position to STR, but I feel that it's worth reminding some people on the site that many different people have an interest in lower house prices. My interest in a falling market is that I want to trade up to a bigger home when my wife and I get to retire so we are saving hard now and looking to buy in 5-7 years time when they will be more affordable.

Finally, just to say that I really enjoy the site and have found it quite addictive.

Knife edge.

Anyones idea which way it will go but at least you realise that.

Enjoy.

[MrNobody]

Only just noticed this thread and as i'm still fairly new thought I would post something.

I'm late twenties, looking to buy my first house. I've been watching the market for a while now and realised I was priced out. 3 years ago I thought to myself whats the point of working if I can't buy, so I saved up a little dosh and went to uni for three years hoping that at the end of it we would be nearer the crash.

I'm just finishing the degree. Its in accounting and finance, and I worked in accounting before so I know a little about everthing and am a master of nothing. Hopefully when I finish my degree I hope to either get a better job than I had before and buy overpriced, or more preferably get a better job and buy at a realistic price. Either way i'm going to hold out for quite a bit longer yet.

Edited January 21, 2007 by MrNobody

[pedagog]

Hi all,

I have been lurking for a couple of weeks. I _love_ the RSS feed from this site.

I am a lucky one who bought in 1997 at a low price (60k). In 2004 I sold for 175k and bought a much bigger house which had been squatted in for 145k. It's now worth 230-240k after I've spent 30k on it.

My problem is I want to move to a more expensive, more desirable town 45mins away. Prices there are around 20% higher than here which means extending my mortgage by 40-50k just to get a house as good as the one I have

I am convinced the crash is imminent. I was considering selling up and renting in the new town. Risky strategy though if you have small children!

Now I'm considering waiting for the crash. I figure that if after the crash there is still a 20% difference then I might only have to fork out an extra 20-30k to get a house the same.

I have been discussing my ideas and views about the housing market and the UK economy on another site and there has been some very interesting contributions from other posters.

You can read them here

[Mr Scaramanga]

Hello everybody,

This is my first post on this site, but been reading it for a while. My wife and I currently rent, and we are pretty convinced that a crash will begin this year. I sure hope so!

[pedagog]

Interesting how all the newest members are 'bears'

[sossij]

Hi there,

I didn't see this thread before I posted sorry.

Well, I've been lurking on here for ages and finally decided to register.

Hi everyone!

[Hooky Monster]

Hi all,

I've been lurking here for about a year now.

I bought a place with my girlfriend at the end of 2005 purely for wanting a place of our own. I was a little worried about a crash but hadn't given it a lot of thought until after buying. Since then I've read a lot on this forum and also some basic economics books to get all the ideas/views stated here into context.

I am a bear but maybe what you would call a moderate bear. I can see that a house price correction should and will happen for the good of the country at large, but am obviously a little worried about getting into negative equity. Saying that, I've come to an amateurish conclusion that maybe a lot of this correction will be via inflation and higher wages rather than nominal falls. Hopefully for myself this will be the case, but we'll see...

Meantime I'm paying as much off the mortgage as possible without penalty and saving/investing for when my fixed rate period runs out. Interested as such in gold threads etc...

Cheers

Hooky Monster

[morf1]

I Live in a small market town in wiltshire with a small Barrett development.Houses and flats not selling even though flags signs deals show home etc,homes still not selling.Anyway they have now instructed a local agent to sell some properties at a reduced rate,fist time in 17 years this has happened i am told.

1. 
   

[Spongebob]

Hello all,

Joined the site last week and quite impressed. Looks like it could be really helpful.

Own my house with a mortgage, made about £50k in equity in 3 years so Im happy enough. Its only a 3 bed semi in Cheshire.

Thinking of finally branching out and buying a 2nd property. Hope this site will help me.

[Daft Boy]

Hi Guys, This is my first post .

I hope to make a positive and meaningful contribution to this interesting and informative site.

[jmf]

hello from germany (probably the only country without a bubble....),

i want to share the piece from bloomberg with you.

Mad London House Prices? We've Seen Nothing Yet

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2007/...-weve-seen.html

make sure you stay calm after you read this.

amazing!

[stevie1969]

Greetings to everyone here.

I have been looking for a forum on this subject for ages.

hope to be discussing with you soon

[Daft Boy]

Hello, I've lurked on and off here for a few years. The Bears comfort me. Finally registered as had to express my amazement as to property prices in SW London which seemed to have leaped again this Jan with properties being sold in a matter of days of coming on to the market.

I STr'ed in West London in 2002 mainly because I wanted a change of scene and flexibility. That decision didn't look too bad for a couple of years but prices rose steeply there in 2006, maybe because the borough turned Tory after years of Labour! Luckily for me I had bought in 1996, I had no idea at the time that we were in a slump, people didn't discuss property prices much back then and I was a young arts graduate who didn't think much about economics! Now I kick myself when I think that I believed that I couldn't afford to offer on a place with one more bedroom as it cost 100K rather than 90K!

Very luckily for me too, I inherited 50% of a studio flat in central West London in 2003 so I'm sort of covered both ways at the moment as far as movements are concerned, having some savings and some equity. Have very low earnings though due to ill health. I really really want to move to a slightly bigger place with outside space but am scared to upgrade in this market; the rises and the whole atmosphere around property do appear bubble like and if ill health means I have to downgrade again, I could get stuck with a financial headache.

I'm a bear given that I've seen parents and friends suffer over the crashes since the 70's. I've turned down masses of offers to get involved with buying and doing up properties over the past 10 years (I happened to know a lot of the early East European immigrants who were very canny about buying property in the Docklands areas before the Jubilee line had opened there) so I've seen people make money but the life of a property speculator is not for me.

Surely people are going to get burnt? It all seems too easy. Alarm bells ring when the radio (LBC) advertises schemes for making money from property day after day (firms like Inside Track) or people at work who have little mathematical grasp get into BTL believing that the equity accumulation will pay for their pension.

Sometimes I think, with all this cheap money available, when anyone can get a mortgage by falsifying self-certification documents, we won't see a crash for 20 years or so. That will be when people can't pay the equity back as they've had IO mortgages (as most new buyers to the market I meet have) and need money to live in old age.

Then, in London, there's the fact that so many of the new arrivals want to buy property to help them put down roots in the UK (which serves us right really, what with the swarms of English people buying up property in the likes of Bulgaria and Croatia, putting prices out of reach of the locals).

Anyway, I have no idea what to do at the moment. Mostly I would like to sell and sit it out and rent but I have serious family pressure not to "lose equity" a second time around.

Hi Guys, i think you all need to chill and move away from your screens and start walking the streets. The long awaited house price correction started around october 2006. Forget the hype

You are all being far to clinical in your reading of the markets. Over the last 40 years no one has everstood why the corrections happen. There are always "experts" after the event but none before.

Forget IR and statistics because they have no bearing whatsoever. Save your energy and stop bloody analysing.

I might be daft but not as daft as I look.

I have only bought three houses over the last forty years. I only buy at the bottom of the market and STR at the top. I have a 100% track record using a simple formulae. I was able to retire at the ripe old age of 47 some 14 years ago on a private income because of it and some great investments. My track record speaks for itself.

On 12th december I cashed in all of my peps, isas and other investments built up over the last twenty years and put the money in high interest internet accounts. The reason for this was experience, something you cannot buy. The global markets have generally had a three year bull run that has run out of steam. Sell on the up and let the next mug have a little profit before the correction comes along this year.

I bought my first house in 1967 for £2000. It was two years old and had been bought for £2499 when new. It was STR in 1974 for £18000.

In 1977 I paid £11500 for a new build that had been on the market for £27500. I STR that in 1989 for £89000. I had twenty two couples chasing after that. I laughed all the way to the bank. I decided to live virtually rent free on my 40 foot boat and wait for the correction in the property market. In early 1994 I bought my existing property for £59000. It had been bought new in 1988 for £92000. In 1989 it was "valued" at £98000. At the moment it is paid for and "valued" at £220000.

Now don't get excited but I am about to put my house on the market to STR because I know that the house is worth more today than it will be for at least the next ten years.I know the time has come again. I have never been wrong but thats the problem with being a daft boy and keeping things simple. I will again sit tight for four or five years and buy back in at the bottom again.

Do your homework but keep it simple. Find the price of the building plot in pounds per square metre for the type of house you are seeking. Find the cost of a new build on the plot provided in pounds per square metre. Add the two together. That is the present true core cost of the property and will be mirrored in house price graph shown on this site. Buy below the line and you have a bargain. Buy above the line and you are paying for fresh air so beware. The more fresh air you purchase the bigger your problem. Never ever buy a a leasehold apartment because the plot and build price are always distorted . Thats why developers build them to maximise profit at your expence. Property is never an investment in the long term unless you buy low and sell high. In the long term average property prices only stay in line with average income.

All you bears will be right on for the next five years then it will become the turn of you bulls again.

--------------------

In the dark depths of the lunatic asylum the daft boy is king.......Shakespeare

[the_big_beast]

Hi Peeps!

I'm James, 26, from Kent.

Good forum you have here.

[OceanDreamer]

Hi fellas, may as well say hi in here. 29 y/o renting with partner in Middlesex.

Bring on the correction!

[A Fool & His Borrowed Money]

A sudden wash of new users all of a sudden!

Welcome

[Lhotse Girl]

Ermmm..... What's a bull, and what's a bear?!! Serious answers...

Here is a (non-complete) list of common acronyms:

VI = Vested Interests (this means lenders, agents, housebuilders, the government, and anyone else who might have an interest in ever rising house prices)

BTL = buy-to-let

FTB = first-time-buyer

STR = sell-to-rent

MEW = mortgage equity withdrawal

Who are the moderators?

[Jason]

Ermmm..... What's a bull, and what's a bear?!! Serious answers...

A Bull thinks prices will rise.

A Bear thinks prices will fall.

All stems around how a bull and bear fights, a bull tosses their enemy into the air. A bears drags them to the ground. Comes from Wall Street IIRC.

[Lhotse Girl]

Thanks... that makes me a cat then..... they love walking fences and high vantage points......

A Bull thinks prices will rise.

A Bear thinks prices will fall.

All stems around how a bull and bear fights, a bull tosses their enemy into the air. A bears drags them to the ground. Comes from Wall Street IIRC.

[libspero]

Hi All,

Great forum.. as a FTB I've been monitoring this and other sites for a while now. Very interesting, some tough decisions to make.

I'll be watching for some time to come and may start posting properly soon.

Thanks for the great content.

Lib