B B C Radio 5 Live 15.04.08

[Crossbow]

How is it that the BBC on 5 live allow idiots like that Jonathan commenting on a house price crash quoting a 40% crash it is totally irresponsible and Journalists banging the drum every day is completely against the well being of millions of home owners.

I view this uncontrolled irresponsible reporting dangerous to Britain’s economy and much more serious than insider trading the Government should step in to stop uninformed unqualified reporting to what is people’s largest investment. As a property expert I am sick to the back teeth listening to the twaddle the BBC churn out every day.

There is only one reason why people are starting to panic and that stems from uninformed Journalists banging the drum every day. In the last recession pockets all over the country were affected and many pockets not. As like topics on Europe on other subjects no balance. If you take London the prime areas of Knightsbridge, Belgravia, Marylebone, Soho and Covent Garden were unaffected in the last recession.

BBC have like so many companies Journalists that have not got a clue and entertain a hypothetical line that has no bearing in the current prime London market with 5% interest rates and low unemployment, people should not believe all they hear from uninformed Journalists. In the last month I have seen five closed bid situations with prices ranging from 1M-4M

Agitated

This HAS to be a wind-up

[sambino]

Does the guy work for Foxtons!!

[Tinman]

No no - everyone listen to him, he's a property "expert"

[the primitive]

How is it that the BBC on 5 live allow idiots like that Jonathan commenting on a house price crash quoting a 40% crash it is totally irresponsible and Journalists banging the drum every day is completely against the well being of millions of home owners.

I view this uncontrolled irresponsible reporting dangerous to Britain’s economy and much more serious than insider trading the Government should step in to stop uninformed unqualified reporting to what is people’s largest investment. As a property expert I am sick to the back teeth listening to the twaddle the BBC churn out every day.

There is only one reason why people are starting to panic and that stems from uninformed Journalists banging the drum every day. In the last recession pockets all over the country were affected and many pockets not. As like topics on Europe on other subjects no balance. If you take London the prime areas of Knightsbridge, Belgravia, Marylebone, Soho and Covent Garden were unaffected in the last recession.

BBC have like so many companies Journalists that have not got a clue and entertain a hypothetical line that has no bearing in the current prime London market with 5% interest rates and low unemployment, people should not believe all they hear from uninformed Journalists. In the last month I have seen five closed bid situations with prices ranging from 1M-4M

Agitated

There there put some more hair gel on and have a cup of tea, a nice sit down and a game of minesweeper as the tumble weed blows through your office....

[Methinkshe]

How is it that the BBC on 5 live allow idiots like that Jonathan commenting on a house price crash quoting a 40% crash it is totally irresponsible and Journalists banging the drum every day is completely against the well being of millions of home owners.

The same way it allows idiots like that Kirsty Allsop on to Five Live to deny there is a house price crash.

I view this uncontrolled irresponsible reporting dangerous to Britain’s economy and much more serious than insider trading the Government should step in to stop uninformed unqualified reporting to what is people’s largest investment. As a property expert I am sick to the back teeth listening to the twaddle the BBC churn out every day.

So what do you propose? Media censorship? I suggest you go and live in Zimbabwe and see how much you enjoy government CONTROLLED reporting if you don't like British "uncontrolled" reporting.

There is only one reason why people are starting to panic and that stems from uninformed Journalists banging the drum every day.

Are you deaf or deliberately provocative? Jonathan Davies was introduced as a CHARTERED financial planner. Do you understand what "chartered" means? I fear that it is you are uninformed, not Jonathan Davies.

In the last recession pockets all over the country were affected and many pockets not. As like topics on Europe on other subjects no balance. If you take London the prime areas of Knightsbridge, Belgravia, Marylebone, Soho and Covent Garden were unaffected in the last recession.

Who told you that prime areas of London were unaffected during the last house price crash? I suggest you check your information. The WHOLE country experienced house price falls and some areas more so than others. There were no areas that were unaffected.

BBC have like so many companies Journalists that have not got a clue and entertain a hypothetical line that has no bearing in the current prime London market with 5% interest rates and low unemployment, people should not believe all they hear from uninformed Journalists. In the last month I have seen five closed bid situations with prices ranging from 1M-4M

It is you who are clueless - so clueless that you cannot even see what is happening right under your nose.

Agitated

You are going to be even more agitated in three years time when house prices have fallen by 30 - 40%.

[christhpc]

Nice one FP. Nothing wrong with the borderline ranting approach; never done George Galloway any harm.

[The Masked Tulip]

Left my radio on next to my bed when I fell asleep last night. Got woken up this morning by some Scottish bloke shouting at some woman about house prices crashing.

[Converted Lurker]

some quality trolling on view here, anyone else think their opinions are just plain 'weird'?

[babesagainstmachines]

How is it that the BBC on 5 live allow idiots like that Jonathan commenting on a house price crash quoting a 40% crash it is totally irresponsible and Journalists banging the drum every day is completely against the well being of millions of home owners.

I view this uncontrolled irresponsible reporting dangerous to Britain’s economy and much more serious than insider trading the Government should step in to stop uninformed unqualified reporting to what is people’s largest investment. As a property expert I am sick to the back teeth listening to the twaddle the BBC churn out every day.

There is only one reason why people are starting to panic and that stems from uninformed Journalists banging the drum every day. In the last recession pockets all over the country were affected and many pockets not. As like topics on Europe on other subjects no balance. If you take London the prime areas of Knightsbridge, Belgravia, Marylebone, Soho and Covent Garden were unaffected in the last recession.

BBC have like so many companies Journalists that have not got a clue and entertain a hypothetical line that has no bearing in the current prime London market with 5% interest rates and low unemployment, people should not believe all they hear from uninformed Journalists. In the last month I have seen five closed bid situations with prices ranging from 1M-4M

Agitated

I think you should read around a bit outside your "property expert" box, and you might find out just how little you actually know. In the words of Master Yoda - "You must unlearn what you have learned".

It's not public sentiment. It's lack of credit. This guarantees a recession as we rebalance the economy. All else is pretty much irrelevant.

[Methinkshe]

some quality trolling on view here, anyone else think their opinions are just plain 'weird'?

V.I.s who for some daft reason really believe that talk alone can drive down house prices regardless of fundamentals. You have to feel sorry for them, they're just so simple.

[The Generation Game]

I heard the piece, and actually I think the HPC chap balanced it wrong... it would have sounded a lot more reasonable if he were to have said over the next four years we expect inflation of around 4% and house price drops at the same time. During the period we expect a 20% drop in actual prices with a total inflation adjusted fall of 40%...... That would have been a reasonable way to put the point accross even though I personally do not think it will be that steep. (Note... I can't believe he meant a 40% drop in in actual prices over four years with inflation adjustment this would make 60%... the last one was only 13% in actual price falls with the rest being inflation adjustment).

Secondly I do think there is credence to the point that falls will be much higher in some pockets... eg new build city centre flat environment, those areas with large penetrations of those who are financially struggling (by the by this dovetails quite neatly with BTL penetration). In other words the fall won't be something we can judge nationally as different areas will have different characteristics even beyond the county level eg Suffolk will be dragged down by Ipswich.... Essex will be dragged down by colchester, chelmsford, southend etc).

So in summary I do think he could have made the point he wanted to just as clearly by perhaps firstly breaking down the inflation effect from the actual price drop and secondly making the point about regional differences.

My own view for what its worth is that there will be a blood bath in the new build flat sector and in those areas where people are more stretched financially..... and that this will create a gloomy national picture... however we will not necessarilly see dramatic falls everywhere, and some house types in some areas may not have much of a correction at all. I would say as I have before that there are plenty out there who want to buy, who can afford it and who I see every day, but financing is getting in the way.... if we can find a way to reduce the margin between the BOE rate and LIBOR back to a more healthy 50 basis points (traditionally about 30 basis points) then I think the financing situation will ease considerably.

So they can't "afford it"

[cocoraceme]

Debate with Nicky Campbell and some VI economist - Ruth Lea

Listen again at 5 live breakfast show at 8.01am or so.

I was disappointed, normally you put across the facts so well - in the end it became a rant *sigh*

[geed]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/aod/mainframe.s...l_breakfast_tue

Go forward to just after 8am i.e. just over 2 hours

FP - Blimey, Steady tiger. Due to the good work of this site (and particularly you) and the powers (or the lack thereoff) of economic mis-managment, a crash is now inevitable. We can stop shouting, it is those that wish it not to happen that should be the ones shouting now. The facts are on our side, and with the inevitability of the crash now apparent to the sheeple, so too the majority of the media.

Remember what you said on Ch4 news last week, and this is something I have been going on about for donkey's on here as well; high IR's in the late 80's/90's are counteracted by high prices at present. 5% on £150K is the same as 15% on £50K. Do not let them get away with this "we have low IR's compared to the last crash". It is a lie.

Good work and thanks for the link.

[geed]

So they can't "afford it"

Yes The G Game, quite right. Many still don't quite understand what the term "affordability" means. A classic contradiction.

[OzzMosiz]

3 new posters on one thread - I smell TROLLS!

[Killer Bunny]

Nice one FP. Nothing wrong with the borderline ranting approach; never done George Galloway any harm.

Or Peter Schiff.

[abharrisson]

We only saw 13% last time nationally because it was pretty much all in the south east of england. This time it is national.

Flats to fall nationally by more than the 44% that mine lost in Great Crash 1, which I think we need to rename "Minor Blip 1".

If there is a blood bath in the new build sector, how will current flat owners get onto the next rung of the ladder?

Bobthe...... don't quite get the point you are making.... do you think the reduction in prices is going to be worse nationally (drops aggregated up) than last time ?, do you think its going to worse than 20% in price and 20% in inflation related falls. Do you not think that the downturn (like the last one) will be characterised by some massive falls in certain parts with others only seeing price easing. if you look in depth at the current stats most of it is down to repossessions increasing in some areas, new build flats coming onto the market at a discount, a scew in some of the statistics towards lower than average priced housing coming up for sale etc etc.... looking only at a National figure I really don't feel helps understand the nature of any market correction. The media appear fascinated with the national number, as I have to say did the HPC rep this morning. To me its largely meaningless as it reveals very little about where or why prices fall.

Although it may sound silly to many prices are not falling solely becasue properties are overpiced, there are other stronger drivers out there.

The point about the new builds is that those prices will be hit hardest... anyone who has bought one to actually live in in the last say four years is likely to catch a cold... a lot have been sold to investors.. but some unfortunates have also been hoodwinked by the " free carpets, part -exchange, 5% deposit etc " marketing of these places, many didn't even bother negotiating much..... like the more savvy investors they should have pushed for 30% off the starting price... even then they'd be in trouble, just less trouble. These people will definately be in negative equity for quite a number of years. so the answer is they won't be able to get up a rung as you say unless they have more cash. Mnay will have their finances damaged for the next decade.

If there is a significant fall in prices it will however help people trade up, although in recognising that we are also recognising that prices are likely to canter away again pretty quickly once the drop has finished( becasue like most drops it risks being overdone if allowed to run forward unchecked)

Like many on here I share the view that prices will fall, but don't share the view that it will be national, and don't share the view that it will be anything like 40% in actual prices... I would argue even 20% in actual price and 20% in inflation would be extreme over the next four or five years.

Just to pose a point I just wonder what will happen if the credit crunch related financing issues are resolved in the next 6 to twelve months and some competitveness returns to the mortgage market. Personally I don't think it will trigger a bounce in house prices but I do believe it may well cut off much by the way of further falls. if the financing issues do disappear then in my view we could see whatever is going to happen this year 5/7/10 followed by say three years of stagnation........ I base this on the belief that without the financing crisis prices would have stopped rising and maybe dropped a little but not much more than that. I know that runs counter to some of the vested interests here but there we go thats my view. Its a balanced view.... and would in any event equate to say 26% in total with 10 being in actual price and 16% being inflation related.

[sign_of_the_times]

hehe nice one FP, like the change of tactics.... how about dropping in some inflation bashing over the coming months?

[abharrisson]

So they can't "afford it"

No not quite. What happens in many cases is the instability of the situation puts them off.

Take couple A..... they want to buy a house for whatever reason.

A year ago they would have offered got their offer accepted , put the financing in place and moved ahead pretty quickly.

Now... they still want to buy ... for whatever reason... problem is they don't want to overpay obviously vs current conditions so it takes them much much longer to find someone who will accept a reasonable offer (many give up going through this stage where they wouldn't before), they can't "secure" finance in the same way as before, and even when they have an offer accepted quite a few pull out either because conditions have tightened and they cannot get a mortgage (if someone offered them one they would buy knowing they could afford it), or they again give up because deals available at lunchtime today are often pulled which creates trauma, and equally sometimes there are no deals out there that they like... eg they might specifically want a tracker but those are very very thin on the ground.

The financing situation I referred to is not solely about affordability... its also about product choice and Ex-clusion (currently) of various sectors of the market.

So no what I didn't mean was the financing costs have gone up so they can't afford it... what I meant was that the crisis has created a number of issues in the market that if resolved will help the situation. It goes beyond affordability.

[tinker]

Nice one FP - I think that more and more people will be hearing the truth. The VIs have had it too easy for too long.

I think it's right that the sane people in all this are getting angry... and are prepared to forcefully put their point across. We'll be even more angry if the taxpayer ends up footing the bill for this debt madness.

The wool is slowly dropping from people's eyes. More needed on the affordability issue, the silliness (unproductiveness) of high house prices and debt, bogus inflation figures...

The gospel according to HPC has gone mainstream!

[REP013]

No not quite. What happens in many cases is the instability of the situation puts them off.

Take couple A..... they want to buy a house for whatever reason.

A year ago they would have offered got their offer accepted , put the financing in place and moved ahead pretty quickly.

Now... they still want to buy ... for whatever reason... problem is they don't want to overpay obviously vs current conditions so it takes them much much longer to find someone who will accept a reasonable offer (many give up going through this stage where they wouldn't before), they can't "secure" finance in the same way as before, and even when they have an offer accepted quite a few pull out either because conditions have tightened and they cannot get a mortgage (if someone offered them one they would buy knowing they could afford it), or they again give up because deals available at lunchtime today are often pulled which creates trauma, and equally sometimes there are no deals out there that they like... eg they might specifically want a tracker but those are very very thin on the ground.

The financing situation I referred to is not solely about affordability... its also about product choice and Ex-clusion (currently) of various sectors of the market.

So no what I didn't mean was the financing costs have gone up so they can't afford it... what I meant was that the crisis has created a number of issues in the market that if resolved will help the situation. It goes beyond affordability.

You may not of meant that but it is the reality of the situation.

People can't borrow what they could so prices will need to come down to what people can now borrow. With currently nearly 50% less lending available what will this do to prices (unless the credit markets reopen)?

FP, nice rant by the way, very enjoyable and certainly left Nicky and Ruth aghast!

[Michael]

FP - Blimey, Steady tiger. Due to the good work of this site (and particularly you) and the powers (or the lack thereoff) of economic mis-managment, a crash is now inevitable. We can stop shouting, it is those that wish it not to happen that should be the ones shouting now. The facts are on our side, and with the inevitability of the crash now apparent to the sheeple, so too the majority of the media.

Remember what you said on Ch4 news last week, and this is something I have been going on about for donkey's on here as well; high IR's in the late 80's/90's are counteracted by high prices at present. 5% on £150K is the same as 15% on £50K. Do not let them get away with this "we have low IR's compared to the last crash". It is a lie.

Good work and thanks for the link.

15% in 1991 was effectively 11.25% because of MIRAS at 25%...........Also the bulls conveniently ignore the fact that only very briefly did IRs touch 15% in 1973 and 81 and 91......Most of the time IRs were 9 or 10% less MIRAS which in the 1970s was 33%

[The Generation Game]

No not quite. What happens in many cases is the instability of the situation puts them off.

Take couple A..... they want to buy a house for whatever reason.

A year ago they would have offered got their offer accepted , put the financing in place and moved ahead pretty quickly.

Now... they still want to buy ... for whatever reason... problem is they don't want to overpay obviously vs current conditions so it takes them much much longer to find someone who will accept a reasonable offer (many give up going through this stage where they wouldn't before), they can't "secure" finance in the same way as before, and even when they have an offer accepted quite a few pull out either because conditions have tightened and they cannot get a mortgage (if someone offered them one they would buy knowing they could afford it), or they again give up because deals available at lunchtime today are often pulled which creates trauma, and equally sometimes there are no deals out there that they like... eg they might specifically want a tracker but those are very very thin on the ground.

The financing situation I referred to is not solely about affordability... its also about product choice and Ex-clusion (currently) of various sectors of the market.

So no what I didn't mean was the financing costs have gone up so they can't afford it... what I meant was that the crisis has created a number of issues in the market that if resolved will help the situation. It goes beyond affordability.

Demand = Desire to own your own home and, in 25 (possibly 40 or 50 ) years, you no longer have to worry about this portion of your living costs.

Affordability = Demand + Ability to raise finance + ability to service finance raised.

Demand is still there. As posted on various threads the main reason is security of tenure (if the Tenancy laws were addressed then demand would fall off sharply).

Ability to raise finance. Break open that piggy bank and count the pennies inside. If the piggy doesn't contain 10% of the agreed purchase price then you can go no further. Grab your superglue and stick your stash back.

Ability to service finance. If your raison d'etre is "must buy house, must buy house" then the banks are now doing you a huge favour by cutting credit lending. Why would anybody put a huge chunk of their take home pay into servicing a mortgage? You end up with nothing else at the end of every month so you just sit in your "slave box" (cheers, RFD) and let your life pass you by, all the while worrying about money.

As for your first line you are quite right. It is the instability (rampant HPI) over the last few years that has put me off buying.

The second line I have highlighted is just plain wrong, the financing situation IS solely about affordability. You are just viewing it from the wrong perspective (you need to look at it from the lender's POV rather than the buyer's POV)

[Methinkshe]

15% in 1991 was effectively 11.25% because of MIRAS at 25%...........Also the bulls conveniently ignore the fact that only very briefly did IRs touch 15% in 1973 and 81 and 91......Most of the time IRs were 9 or 10% less MIRAS which in the 1970s was 33%

That's an important point - Miras. What would real interest payable including Miras have been for the average earner, then?

[TeddyBear]

If you take London the prime areas of Knightsbridge, Belgravia, Marylebone, Soho and Covent Garden were unaffected in the last recession.

Not true. I was there. People did not get into the levels of negative equity people in newly gentrified areas did but it was hard to sell and recent gains were wiped out.