B B C Breakfast With Declan Curry

[Thucydides]

Good work FP. I think you came over very well and extremelly professionally.

The blonde woman seemed a bit like a rabbit in the headlights, I've seen her on there before and she looked very uneasy this time.

If she was there to counter-act FP then she failed miserably. FP argued there will be a crash, and she argued that there will be a slow downturn. If that's talking the market up then it's in trouble for sure.

Edited July 1, 2008 by Thucydides

[Jim B.]

Can't believe the BBC's spin. Transaction volumes down 64% on last year, down 28% on May, Nationwide's house price index records another fall MoM, and according to Declan, things are improving in the housing market! Disgraceful.

I'm not defending Declan but the BBC have a duty I suppose to not spread panic. What Declan actaully thinks is another matter, but I expect he is under orders not to paint too bad a picture and this could create real panic out there (although this may not be a bad thing). OK, it's not impartial reporting, but they have to be careful what they say as to not create something that may not happen in theory.

[eastleighfan]

FP you rocked.

FP ALWAYS rocks !!!

Apologies if this has been asked before ,but is there a video link ?

I love seeing FP (we're not worhty , we're not worthy etc ) give his opinion , because he's been pretty darned good so far ( as well as saving me a few thousand pounds !!!!)

[juvenal]

Another stonking performance from FP. Anyone watching that would have his words ringing in their ears on their way to work.

The other two said nothing more than 'Oh surely it's not a bad as that..'

[Normal]

FP ALWAYS rocks !!!

Apologies if this has been asked before ,but is there a video link ?

I love seeing FP (we're not worhty , we're not worthy etc ) give his opinion , because he's been pretty darned good so far ( as well as saving me a few thousand pounds !!!!)

I'm hoping that FP managed to have a nice chat with Declan and find out exactly how many BTLs he has!

[eastleighfan]

I'd love to see FP confronting Kirsty and Phil

What a programme THAT would be .

He'd wipe the floor with them

[Namaste]

2 words: Economic Reality

Thanks FP!!!

I liked that one too. Individually, those words are hard enough to grasp, but put them together...

[macfarlan]

How can he be seen saying that " Everyone thought I was a loon in the past and I have been correct up to now" Try saying that with big cheshire grin on your face and also try smiling like a winner when Lard ars-e Declan just said " Is not what you are saying going to scare a lot of people".

He was being led into a credibilty trap and by being slightly moody and concerned showing an element of dissapointment in what has happened was absolutely the right thing to do.

Bosh

I agree, well done FP, sterling job.

I'm not defending Declan but the BBC have a duty I suppose to not spread panic. What Declan actaully thinks is another matter, but I expect he is under orders not to paint too bad a picture and this could create real panic out there (although this may not be a bad thing). OK, it's not impartial reporting, but they have to be careful what they say as to not create something that may not happen in theory.

Good point Jim, but it was clear to me what the Declans take on 'what he had a duty to do' which is not to worry people. So it's clear then, that Declan, and perhaps the BBC will not report the facts as they stand, but will offer a watered down version of events so as to protect the sheeple from being upset by the truth. Why educate when you can protect eh? I appreciate that Declan et al might have property portfolio's, but am afraid that this this attitude is apparent with the majority of reporting in the media and is a large part of what's wrong in our society. Parent/child relationships, don't get me started.

I suppose in a way Declan is right tho, imagine the panic if the media just dropped all the pretence and just reported the facts, jack.

Thank God the BBC are protecting us from ever finding out the truth eh?

[keeprenting]

Just watched it online. I think FP was good and stayed extremely calm and composed - no umms and ahhhs - which was the most important thing.

I would make one constructive criticism. When FP came out with the -30% prediction, it was inevitable that this would be challenged (and a prediction of -30% will sound out of place and therefore "radical" amidst all the BBC ramping). FP replied by saying that, so far, he had been treated as a loon all along but had been proved right every step of the way. While this is true, I think a better reply would have been to back up the -30% claim with something more solid. I think the best piece of evidence he could have given is the fact that futures trading on long term property prices shows expectations of -30% peak to trough (-47.5% in real terms).

Q: Your -30% prediction is massively radical and pessimistic, isn't it? Aren't you just a one-off internet loon?

A: "You can see from the futures market that the City expects prices to fall -30%, -47.5% in real terms. My prediction isn't any more pessimistic than what the City expects" (in as calm/matter-of-fact a tone of voice as possible!)

[nixy]

I'm not defending Declan but the BBC have a duty I suppose to not spread panic. What Declan actaully thinks is another matter, but I expect he is under orders not to paint too bad a picture and this could create real panic out there (although this may not be a bad thing). OK, it's not impartial reporting, but they have to be careful what they say as to not create something that may not happen in theory.

But is fractional reserve banking a theory???

[I want a house!]

Well done FP...

They try and prove us wrong but figures go up and down. A 1% drop every month for the next 3 years will do me fine...

[Jim B.]

I agree, well done FP, sterling job.

Good point Jim, but it was clear to me what the Declans take on 'what he had a duty to do' which is not to worry people. So it's clear then, that Declan, and perhaps the BBC will not report the facts as they stand, but will offer a watered down version of events so as to protect the sheeple from being upset by the truth. Why educate when you can protect eh? I appreciate that Declan et al might have property portfolio's, but am afraid that this this attitude is apparent with the majority of reporting in the media and is a large part of what's wrong in our society. Parent/child relationships, don't get me started.

I suppose in a way Declan is right tho, imagine the panic if the media just dropped all the pretence and just reported the facts, jack.

Thank God the BBC are protecting us from ever finding out the truth eh?

I agree completely with what you are saying. I guess the problem the BBC has with this story is that 'the facts' are difficult to present on their own, it's just a load of figures, so they have to get people on who can interpret those figures, and normally those people either have a vested interest or frankly don't have enough economic training to explain what is happening. I mean having that woman from Saville's is a bit like having Mugabe's right-hand man explain the election results.

[macfarlan]

I agree completely with what you are saying. I guess the problem the BBC has with this story is that 'the facts' are difficult to present on their own, it's just a load of figures, so they have to get people on who can interpret those figures, and normally those people either have a vested interest or frankly don't have enough economic training to explain what is happening. I mean having that woman from Saville's is a bit like having Mugabe's right-hand man explain the election results.

Yea, balanced reporting my eye.

[Jim B.]

But is fractional reserve banking a theory???

No, clearly, but it's effects on the long term housing market of the UK is. I agree 100% with FP analysis of the situation I should add, although I do feel we will have a faster collapse than some think.

[Umaguma]

You did brilliant FP - Thanks from everyone who thinks houses should be places to live in and not..etc..etc..

[we the sheeple]

FP has stuck by his predictions of -35%.

Melenie Bien has shifted hers by around -30% this year.

So who's the loon?

[macfarlan]

FP has stuck by his predictions of -35%.

Melenie Bien has shifted hers by around -30% this year.

So who's the loon?

Dippy flip flopping churning out the party line bint more like.

[benj]

For the benefit of anyone who missed this, and/or can't listen to the YouTube clip that Crown provided, here is a transcript. (Apologies for any errors I've introduced...)

Declan Curry: Good morning to you! So house prices are still falling, but they're not falling as quickly this month as they were a month ago. The Nationwide has just told us that house prices fell by roughly 1% in the month of June. Let me put it another way: compared with a year ago, the value of the typical home has lost some 11,500. So let's get some thoughts on this from Jonathan Davies - now he speaks for a website called House Price Crash .co.uk; he also works for a company called Armstrong Davies Financial Planners. Melanie Bien you'll know of course from Saville's Private Finance. Good morning to both of you. Jonathan, just your thoughts on this first of all: if they're not falling as quickly as they were a month ago, that's good news, isn't it?

Jonathan Davies: It's good news for some. I think, however, the figures do mask the reality that since September prices are probably down about fifteen, maybe twenty percent in many parts of the country and there's a lot more of this to come.

DC: You say down 15%, but the Nationwide has a slightly different figure for that. It says - I don't want to get into a spit-fall(?) fight over numbers - but it says that house prices are down just 7%-

JD: ...In 12 months, and I'm talking about since the credit crunch really took hold, which was September last year.

DC: (to Melanie Bien) Is the market as bad as he says it is?

Melanie Bien: I'm not quite as gloomy, I mean, obviously the Nationwide figures are evidence of further slowdown in the market which you know we are seeing, we are in a housing downturn, and prices are falling across the country. But we're thinking that the gradual slowdown will continue rather than actually seeing a price crash.

DC: So you're talking about a gradual slowdown. (to FP) You are, as the website says, still thinking that prices are going to fall sharply further.

JD: It's inconceivable, actually, that they won't. Because it has done in America, in Ireland, in Spain, right across the western developed world. This has got another two or three years to go and we would forecast about another 30% fall still to come.

DC: This is astonishingly gloomy.

JD: It's economic realism.

DC: Really?

JD: Well, as I say, look across the world.

DC: But this is the British housing market we're talking about. You know, if you go on television, you talk about house prices falling as much as that, that's going to frighten a lot of people.

JD: Um... I've been saying the same thing for the last year and a half. I was called a loony then, and I've been absolutely accurate.

DC: I wouldn't be so impoilte as to call you that, of course. Melanie.

MB: ...a lot of the problems at the moment are down to the problems in getting credit, and we've seen lenders have practically shut up shop, and a lot of forecasts really depend on what's going to happen with that, whether the market eases there and whether lenders do come back in. We've seen a few in the last couple of weeks, like Alliance and Leicester, coming in with lower priced products, and there's a feeling that you know they do need to lend and they will come in and offer good products and then people will borrow and they'll go back out again, that will continue - we're not going to see them all come back in wholesale.

JD: Globally, banks have lost 400 billion dollars and some estimate (it) could be up to a trillion dollars. When a bank makes a dollar they can lend ten dollars; when it loses a dollar, it restricts its lending by 10 dollars. That means that there's less lending in the global economy to the tune of 4 trillion dollars. That's going to mean that this has got two or three years further to play itself out.

DC: All right. Jonathan, Melanie, thanks very much for joining us here in the studio.

Edited July 1, 2008 by benj

[wonderpup]

JD: Globally, banks have lost 400 billion dollars and some estimate (it) could be up to a trillion dollars. When a bank makes a dollar they can lend ten dollars; when it loses a dollar, it restricts its lending by 10 dollars. That means that there's less lending in the global economy to the tune of 4 trillion dollars. That's going to mean that this has got two or three years further to play itself out.

The first time I have ever seen this articulated in any form on the mainstream media- brilliant!

[Little Professor]

Remarkably restrained performance by FP - looked very professional, and didn't open up himself to the calls of "doom-mongering" at all - just said it how it was, and let the facts do the talking.

Great stuff, FP!

[gravity always wins]

Nationwide stats (I know them but embargoed...) and comment from moi

Yawn, can't wait for someone to ask you on telly when you sold your house.

Still waiting for the Dow to hit 15,000 fancy updating us on that prediction?

Just another VI who couldn't predict his way out of a paperbag.

[Once in a lifetime]

Difficult to get something so complicated acrossed in such a small space of time.

I'd leave out any reference to being called a loony in the past.

We need to sort-out some better (snappy) one-liners, something to get people thinking

instead of dismissing the argument.

Melanie Bien didn't look like she wanted to be there.

well done FP.

[sambino]

Just watched it well done FP cannot believe tax payers money is spent on Declan. Yes Nationwide only down 0.9 % last month put look at the volumes of sales from other data no one is moving, I reckon people as desperately sitting tight at the moment when the 2 year resets pick on steam FPs 35 % drop might be a bit low

[Paddles]

Sterling performance by FP as usual but frankly, his Oliver Hardy is only really funny when contrasted against Melanie Bien's Stan Laurel. She's hilarious! I wonder if she's available to do her comedy at functions.

[redgenieuk]

Sterling performance by FP as usual but frankly, his Oliver Hardy is only really funny when contrasted against Melanie Bien's Stan Laurel. She's hilarious! I wonder if she's available to do her comedy at functions.

Better.

It is alledged she will do this performace for £8.50.

She will do a better job of this than the current one she has got.

Probabaly better than the original artist too!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZN1ZIHaSEQ