Channel 4 News 08.04.08

[Armitage Shanks]

Someone said

witnessed an EA unwittingly calling a double-digit

Sorry for my total ignorance........ what is a EA?

Thanks in enlightenment.......

Shaun.

Estate Agent

[Turnbull2000]

How much have you mugs paid in rent since then, while I've been paying down my mortgage?

Was ready to give you a reasonable answer, but since you regard priced out first-time buyers forced into renting as "mugs", you can f**k right off

Edited April 9, 2008 by Turnbull2000

[Bloo Loo]

Someone said

witnessed an EA unwittingly calling a double-digit

Sorry for my total ignorance........ what is a EA?

Thanks in enlightenment.......

Shaun.

Welcome to the site.

Check out the HPC Wiki at the top of this page

[Daft Boy]

Rents will inevitably increase

Not in a recession mate

[Guest AuntJess]

Sorry for disturbing the Jonathon Davis love-in, but I'm finding the attitude of people on here - even the existence of the site itself - utterly bizarre.

Why do you regard the possible collapse of the housing market, and financial markets generally, with such undisguised glee? I can only assume you haven't really thought through what the consequences of a really deep recession - depression - would be for all of us. None of us experienced the 1930's, but I'm guessing that being able to go round telling everyone "I told you so" would be scant consolation for the human misery in which we would all undoubtedly share. Or do you people keep your money in boxes under the beds in your (presumably) rented houses?

As for last night's performance, I can't quite share in the idol-worship of your guru. I was particularly irked by the ridiculous comment about Bentleys - not least because it was lifted straight from Roger Bootle's (another prophet of doom who's getting far too excited about the possibilityof finally, after all these years, being right) column in the Telegraph on Monday. Mr Davis may not drive a Benltey, but I'm sure he has a smaller, more practicle vehicle, in the same way that most of us live in 3-bed semis rather than 10bed mansions. The thing about houses is that unlike cars, they are a basic human need. An individual needs somewhere to live. Whether he owns or rents, someone has to own the house, and there aren't enough being built to keep pace with the population. Now I wouldn't argue with you that the market is somewhat overheated at present, but basic economics tells you that in the long-term, if there is a shortage of something, its price is more likely to go up than down.

And even if JD and the rest of you are right, you haven't predicted anything - just proved the truism that if you say something for long enough, you're bound to be right eventually. This site was created in October 2003. If you look at the same HBOS survey that got you all so excited yesterday, you'll see that house prices are up about 40% since then, so a fairly severe (c30%) correction will only take you back to where you started.

How much have you mugs paid in rent since then, while I've been paying down my mortgage?

As to 'the truism that is right eventually': Another example is that we all die - sooner or later - but how and when we die depends on how we are treated by life. So it is with house prices. They rise and fall over the years, inching slowly forward but always keeping within grasp of basic salaries - not the London stockbroker's 'snouty' plunder. Each up and down can be prolonged, by cynical and greedy types, but in the end they must bow to the inevitable.

I recognise your need to get into denial mode, Who wants to admit they are going to be fleeced till they retire - or die?

As to paying down your mortgage: If you ARE indeed paying off your mortgage - and not just the interest - then you must have had that mortgage for MANY years, from when prices were within reason. Why jib, then, and make *rsy comments to people who share the same right as you: to own their own home without being robbed blind?

If However you are a recent buyer, then no way are you paying off your mortgage You are just paying off the interest on an over-priced dwelling, and will be doing it until the day you die. It'll be years before you come within reach of shrinking that gigantic mortgage.

Them's the facts. Get over them.

PS if you have financial expectations from Mummy and Daddy,then you will be let off the hook, so you are not 'qualified' to lecture any here on financial acuity.

I also wonder at your gall coming on here and besmirching a financial adviser who has principles and is not afraid to stand alone and say that the king has no suit of clothes.

Edited April 10, 2008 by AuntJess

[Guest AuntJess]

Was ready to give you a reasonable answer, but since you regard priced out first-time buyers forced into renting as "mugs", you can f**k right off

Never fear, s/he is about to see who "the mugs" really are.

[Guest AuntJess]

The most telling incidence of all is that, although this thread is barely two days old, it has had over 10,000 hits.

Someone must find FP's comments interesting

Edited April 10, 2008 by AuntJess

[Shaun]

Auntie said.....

The most telling incidence of all is that, although this thread is barely two days old, it has had over 10,000 hits.

Its the power of appearing on TV methinks...........

For years I have been warning of this house price "correction" to clients and friends and the inscrupuless lending by the mortgage providers and mortgage brokers, fueled by self cert (lying) and multiple of salary lending never heard of........ I felt like a lone voice!!!

But I did not come across this site until "yer man" appeared on the Box.......... So here I am now!!

I'm a qualified "but non practiicing" IFA (I work for a provider now) and have been in Financial Services for over 30 years, in the last 5 or so years I have been quite frankly shocked at the goings on of the lending institutions, mortgage brokers EA's and the FSA...........

I own property and rent out property and have for 15 years, so I do have some experience and interest in the property market.

You just watch how bad this gets....... You ain't seen nothing yet................

[pagaman]

Sorry for disturbing the Jonathon Davis love-in, but I'm finding the attitude of people on here - even the existence of the site itself - utterly bizarre.

Why do you regard the possible collapse of the housing market, and financial markets generally, with such undisguised glee? I can only assume you haven't really thought through what the consequences of a really deep recession - depression - would be for all of us.

Do a search for "cgano". The one thing this site is very good at is exploring every negative scenario to do with the credit bubble / the economy in general.

There is a difference between what you want to see happen, and what you think will happen.

I would like to see everyone win £1,000,000 (and for the pound not to devalue). We could all have the home of our dreams, wonderful cars, no debts...and a fluffy kitten.

But I don't think that will happen.

I guess I feel better informed that the idiots in charge. I can make predictions and see them come to true, while the people in charge are "shocked".

I can also warn family and friends, and point out potential pitfalls.

How many BTL landlords would have liked to have been warned, that their "pensions" we're over priced before they bought them?

Wouldn't it have been better to have avoided the credit crunch, by avoiding the credit bubble?

The only way to do that would have been by knowledge and information. Which is what this site is about.

Looking forward it looks like the people in charge are about to expand the credit bubble by lowering interest rates. This means more people over borrowing / over stretching themselves. So when IRs do go back up, even more people will be stuffed.

None of us experienced the 1930's, but I'm guessing that being able to go round telling everyone "I told you so" would be scant consolation for the human misery in which we would all undoubtedly share. Or do you people keep your money in boxes under the beds in your (presumably) rented houses?

There is a "I told you so" to all this. But really in order for correct action to take place (contracting the credit bubble by raising IRs) that correction action needs to be considered. So someone has to put forward that argument. No one will take the authors of that argument seriously unless previous predictions have been proven to be correct.

If you look around, half the discussions are based around how to survive the crunch. Some people think buying gold is a good idea.

Others think that gold will suffer a bubble too.

FYI: Some of us are actually owner-occupiers.

As for last night's performance, I can't quite share in the idol-worship of your guru. I was particularly irked by the ridiculous comment about Bentleys - not least because it was lifted straight from Roger Bootle's (another prophet of doom who's getting far too excited about the possibilityof finally, after all these years, being right) column in the Telegraph on Monday. Mr Davis may not drive a Benltey, but I'm sure he has a smaller, more practicle vehicle, in the same way that most of us live in 3-bed semis rather than 10bed mansions. The thing about houses is that unlike cars, they are a basic human need. An individual needs somewhere to live. Whether he owns or rents, someone has to own the house, and there aren't enough being built to keep pace with the population. Now I wouldn't argue with you that the market is somewhat overheated at present, but basic economics tells you that in the long-term, if there is a shortage of something, its price is more likely to go up than down.

When demand is greater than supply prices rise.

Prices have risen by a huge amount.

Therefore demand has outstripped supply.

Supply has however been great. Bob the builder has been doing sterling work. There are 4 developments of flats near me.

So in order for demand to outstrip supply then demand must have been huge.

However what is demand?

It's the desire to buy a property + the ability to pay

The ability to pay has been provided by the credit bubble. That's being attacked by the credit crunch.

Desire. Well that's the property porn tv shows. The newspapers talking about housing. The "good news for homeowners prices have risen" news programs.

The want to have a nest, etc

Desire is being eroded and will turn negative, because people are seeing the fact that property is too expensive.

That the credit crunch is here, people will become uncertain about their jobs etc....

And even if JD and the rest of you are right, you haven't predicted anything - just proved the truism that if you say something for long enough, you're bound to be right eventually. This site was created in October 2003. If you look at the same HBOS survey that got you all so excited yesterday, you'll see that house prices are up about 40% since then, so a fairly severe (c30%) correction will only take you back to where you started.

How much have you mugs paid in rent since then, while I've been paying down my mortgage?

In terms of predictions you should look at the thread "signs of credit tightening lets keep track" It was first posted Dec 08 2005.

So the credit crunch was predicted here, and actively monitored here since then.

The damage to the banking system was largely predicted here, before NR and bear sterns.

In terms of corrections:

Graduate wage £23K

Max graduate could borrow 23*3 = 69. And on 6K for the deposit. ~£75K

Type of flat grad could buy would be a studio.

studio flat price, walton-on-thames ~£230,000

So prices need to "correct" by £155,000 or 67%

The higher they rise the more they have to fall.

You need to calculate the interest you are paying per month on your mortgage.

This is the money you are wasting on "rent".

This figure can go up or down. However when the credit bubble is over you should expect to see IRs at pre-bubble levels.

So 10%ish.

Also if you lose your job, you may need to move. Which you can do if you rent.

There are no unexpected bills to pay - boilers breaking down etc.

[AC2]

Sorry for disturbing the Jonathon Davis love-in, but I'm finding the attitude of people on here - even the existence of the site itself - utterly bizarre.

[snip]

Think.

How much longer do you believe that house prices could have risen above wage increases, when the money to fund those increases was coming directly from ever larger debt taken out by the young?

How sensible was it to lend 125% - or even 100% - of the value of a house, based purely on 'predictions' of never-ending future price increases?

How much more of a productive economy could we have had over the last ten years if we hadn't been busy selling ever-more expensive houses to each other?

Few people here want a recession/depression, and if house prices had been kept under control we probably wouldn't be looking at one now. As it is, now the only way out is through.

How much have you mugs paid in rent since then, while I've been paying down my mortgage?

Until this week I was about even on the place I rent (I moved here in 2004), taking into account opportunity cost of the property price, rent paid, maintenance and service charge, repairs, interest payments and capital appreciation etc., etc. By now I'd guess I'm slightly ahead, and I can move with two months' notice without the hassle and stress of trying to sell into a falling market. I'm such a mug.

Don't take my word for any of this. Sit down with a spreadsheet and really work things out thoroughly, taking into account inflation, interest payments, true rental costs, maintenance and so on. You'll find that the only people to have really done well out of house price inflation are the bankers and politicians. You - and we - have lined their pockets.

[bullishbear]

I have followed this site pretty much since it started, at first I was quite excited to think there was a movement of people who at the time believed in a market correction - or perhaps a leveling off of the housing boom greed.

Now visiting the site I just see a cage full of over excited chimps all swinging from the bars, one childishly screaming louder than the next. I found the comments of Bemused40 to be both accurate and astute.

Various responses to his argument were quite frankly embarrassing... the 'mugs' comment he made was in good humour (well I found it funny anyway); it was at the tail end of a perfectly good argument, logically speaking the poster is absolutely correct that whilst you may be saving a few grand from a 'crash' you've also spanked away just as much or more on rent.

I'm all for argument, it is enjoyable and you can learn a great deal from the opponent. Though you will learn nothing by ridiculing perfectly rational posters who counter your views and your 'idol worship' (enjoyed that comment also) of the chap on C4. He was ok, but he did have the winning hand from the start in the British publics morbid love affair with pessimism.

Religion has been formed over many issues, but come on guys - where is your self respect?

[Shaun]

Some one said,,,,,,,,,,

Don't take my word for any of this. Sit down with a spreadsheet and really work things out thoroughly, taking into account inflation, interest payments, true rental costs, maintenance and so on. You'll find that the only people to have really done well out of house price inflation are the bankers and politicians

Well with everything there is a right ans a wrong time to buy........But I do not agree with the last line of the above statement....... Some have done OK from property if they bought when "cheap"............ Sure with mortgages bankers have had thier cut .....generally!!!

But now is a bad time to buy......and it will remain so until we have a proper ajustment to earnings.

Over the centuries there have been "bubbles" in various things, the first of which in recent times was the Dutch Tulip bubble in the 16th centuary......

Then the South Sea bubble etc etc.....

This crash is just another version.......

Property has been over hyped and over inflated.......end of story.....

Shaun.

[bullishbear]

What does 'moved' represent on the forum topic?

[Tucksy]

For anyone who missed or has not yet seen the studio discussion or has had trouble finding the correct link please try this one.

Channel 4 News 8th April - House Price Falls - Studio Discussion

This should take you directly to the studio discussion and bypasses the report leading up to it.

Please note that this link opens directly into 'Windows Media Player' so I cannot guarantee it will work for ALL browsers.

Hope this helps.

Cheers,

Tucksy

[geneer]

Sorry for disturbing the Jonathon Davis love-in, but I'm finding the attitude of people on here - even the existence of the site itself - utterly bizarre.

Why do you regard the possible collapse of the housing market, and financial markets generally, with such undisguised glee? I can only assume you haven't really thought through what the consequences of a really deep recession - depression - would be for all of us. None of us experienced the 1930's, but I'm guessing that being able to go round telling everyone "I told you so" would be scant consolation for the human misery in which we would all undoubtedly share. Or do you people keep your money in boxes under the beds in your (presumably) rented houses?

As for last night's performance, I can't quite share in the idol-worship of your guru. I was particularly irked by the ridiculous comment about Bentleys - not least because it was lifted straight from Roger Bootle's (another prophet of doom who's getting far too excited about the possibilityof finally, after all these years, being right) column in the Telegraph on Monday. Mr Davis may not drive a Benltey, but I'm sure he has a smaller, more practicle vehicle, in the same way that most of us live in 3-bed semis rather than 10bed mansions. The thing about houses is that unlike cars, they are a basic human need. An individual needs somewhere to live. Whether he owns or rents, someone has to own the house, and there aren't enough being built to keep pace with the population. Now I wouldn't argue with you that the market is somewhat overheated at present, but basic economics tells you that in the long-term, if there is a shortage of something, its price is more likely to go up than down.

And even if JD and the rest of you are right, you haven't predicted anything - just proved the truism that if you say something for long enough, you're bound to be right eventually. This site was created in October 2003. If you look at the same HBOS survey that got you all so excited yesterday, you'll see that house prices are up about 40% since then, so a fairly severe (c30%) correction will only take you back to where you started.

How much have you mugs paid in rent since then, while I've been paying down my mortgage?

You are Pimperne1 or Crashvilleboomtown. and I claim my £5.

[macfarlan]

What does 'moved' represent on the forum topic?

Here's a good idea.

Go onto an online chat forum, call everyone there mugs, then ask for assistance.

Yea, that should work.

[Tucksy]

Here's a good idea.

Go onto an online chat forum, call everyone there mugs, then ask for assistance.

Yea, that should work.

Nice one!

[bullishbear]

"Here's a good idea.

Go onto an online chat forum, call everyone there mugs, then ask for assistance.

Yea, that should work."

followed by...

"Nice one"

I am humbled at the sharp end of such incisive wit, though the vision I had of chimps in a cage suddenly reappeared then; Can't think why.

You may see, I've had one post on here - my question is perfectly valid and not indicative of being a 'mug', not that it was I who called anyone a mug, I merely found the person who did say it humourous. Care to answer my question rather than being a moronic mistaken smart ****?