scepticus Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 Clive Maund's view of gold - very bearish, thinks it is the first signs of a liquidity crunch and the start of bad things in stocks with IRs eventually rising sharply. http://clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68&PHPSESSID=b9c6d963494d26638593656decaa12be And silver; http://clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67&PHPSESSID=b9c6d963494d26638593656decaa12be The gold analysis seems sensible, but as for soaring rates, thats completely wrong. I know I always say this, but so far I have been correct, This is NOT a harbinger of soaring rates, quite the opposite. THe long end of the govvie yield curve is now the opportunity, not something that is about to sell off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quibble Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Gold will go to $900-$1100 within 18 months. Absolutely. Guaranteed. This is approximately the band it was in in spring 2010. That's no different to RK's $1,000 target. You could well be right and it'll pull back to $1,000 before it wockets to da moon. The challenge is for a proper bearish prediction, and that's specifying that it will not go to da moon. i.e. specifying a maximum value, a ceiling that gold will not reach / go above. The most bearish so far is "Gold will not reach $5000 in the next 10 years." Someone must be prepared to say "Gold will not reach $3000 in the next 10 years." or even "Gold will not reach $2000 in the next 5 years." Of course, it's all guesswork and nobody has a clue really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 The gold analysis seems sensible, but as for soaring rates, thats completely wrong. I know I always say this, but so far I have been correct, This is NOT a harbinger of soaring rates, quite the opposite. THe long end of the govvie yield curve is now the opportunity, not something that is about to sell off. I have no idea where he gets the idea of soaring interest rates from. He mentions gold plunging along with a liquidity crisis so maybe he thinks that such a liquidity crisis will drive up IRs? But with so much QE I cannot see how that would happen or be allowed to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepactonius Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I have no idea where he gets the idea of soaring interest rates from. He mentions gold plunging along with a liquidity crisis so maybe he thinks that such a liquidity crisis will drive up IRs? But with so much QE I cannot see how that would happen or be allowed to happen. In the US, they can't let interest rates rise much above zero, regardless of how much dollar inflation there is. The Federal Debt is so high (and going much higher) that government simply can't afford to pay reasonable interest rates on it. Of course, most other countries are in much better shape, and maybe you could get higher interest rates there, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Take Me Back To London! Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 It's too quiet out there... I think Gold & Silver may suddenly rise soon. Watch this space. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steppenpig Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 China Hasn't "Seen This Gold Rush In 20 Years" Trading volume on the Shanghai gold exchange jumped to a record high on Monday http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-22/china-hasnt-seen-gold-rush-20-years So, they're queing up to buy the stuff, and yet the price is still weak? That seems to suggest, that the institutions are offloading it to the suckkers just as fast as they can get rid of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 It's too quiet out there... I think Gold & Silver may suddenly rise soon. Watch this space. Goldman Sachs has lifted its short position advice apparently. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-its-time-to-close-out-those-gold-shorts-2013-04-23?dist=lcountdown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Gold and stocks to crash as deflation takes over? http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40081.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gf3 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 (edited) first time I have posted on the gold thread. Just had a cold call on my mobile asking me if I was interested in buying gold. Things must be desperate out there if they are doing cold calls at quarter past eight at night. EDIT Just to add the guys telephone number if any of you gold bugs are interested 07442471333 Edited April 23, 2013 by gf3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Hovis Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 first time I have posted on the gold thread. Just had a cold call on my mobile asking me if I was interested in buying gold. Things must be desperate out there if they are doing cold calls at quarter past eight at night. Asheron just gets a bit lonely these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimDiGritz Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 first time I have posted on the gold thread. Just had a cold call on my mobile asking me if I was interested in buying gold. Things must be desperate out there if they are doing cold calls at quarter past eight at night. EDIT Just to add the guys telephone number if any of you gold bugs are interested 07442471333 Maybe this is a crack up boom, however personally I can't buy physical for love nor money. Everyone is out of stock and has been since last week. Are you sure the guy on the phone was't trying to offload a stack of worthless GLD ETFs??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Maybe this is a crack up boom, however personally I can't buy physical for love nor money. Everyone is out of stock and has been since last week. Are you sure the guy on the phone was't trying to offload a stack of worthless GLD ETFs??? Are they really out of physical gold or just unwilling or unable to sell at current price? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deckard Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Asheron just gets a bit lonely these days. $500 silver any day now, 100% guaranteed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Goldman Sachs has lifted its short position advice apparently. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-its-time-to-close-out-those-gold-shorts-2013-04-23?dist=lcountdown Mission accomplished. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stay Beautiful Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 So, they're queing up to buy the stuff, and yet the price is still weak? That seems to suggest, that the institutions are offloading it to the suckkers just as fast as they can get rid of it. Paper, metal. Apple, orange. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_FaFa!_* Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 That's no different to RK's $1,000 target. You could well be right and it'll pull back to $1,000 before it wockets to da moon. The challenge is for a proper bearish prediction, and that's specifying that it will not go to da moon. i.e. specifying a maximum value, a ceiling that gold will not reach / go above. The most bearish so far is "Gold will not reach $5000 in the next 10 years." Someone must be prepared to say "Gold will not reach $3000 in the next 10 years." or even "Gold will not reach $2000 in the next 5 years." Of course, it's all guesswork and nobody has a clue really. Gold will not reach $5000 in the next 10 years Gold will not reach $3000 in the next 10 years Gold will not reach $2000 in the next 5 years Happy now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 One for the bookmark folder I think. heh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_FaFa!_* Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 One for the bookmark folder I think. heh. Go for it. I'd be saddened and surprised if I am still on here in 5 years. Cannot believe you will be. Even if gold goes to the moon, doubt it'll affect me much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Unfortunately what is going to happen will affect everyone. There's no getting away from it. The entire financial system and world order is changing and will change in much more brutal fashion in the years ahead. As much as I wish it wasn't, sadly it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quibble Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Gold will not reach $2000 in the next 5 years Happy now? Not really. Would have thought (with all the posts in this thread) that there would be more than 1 HPC poster prepared to say 'the gold bull is over'. Still want to buy more gold But thanks for trying, and congratulations on being the only bear in the village. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest_FaFa!_* Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Not really. Would have thought (with all the posts in this thread) that there would be more than 1 HPC poster prepared to say 'the gold bull is over'. Still want to buy more gold But thanks for trying, and congratulations on being the only bear in the village. Technically the gold bull is over. 20% off peak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearwithasorehead Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Not really. Would have thought (with all the posts in this thread) that there would be more than 1 HPC poster prepared to say 'the gold bull is over'. Still want to buy more gold But thanks for trying, and congratulations on being the only bear in the village. I second FaFa GOLD WILL NOT REACH $2k in the next five years, barring an asteroid strike. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quibble Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 GOLD WILL NOT REACH $2k in the next five years, barring an asteroid strike. Nice one. There are now 2 proper gold bears. Any more for any more? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Nice one. There are now 2 proper gold bears. Any more for any more? my guess is that there is a 50:50 split on here, or maybe a third each in bull bear and don't care. You could always do a poll. I'm sure a poll thread on the main board would be allowed to stand, even if it was to do with gold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Take Me Back To London! Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 (edited) Technically the gold bull is over. 20% off peak. To the chartists and traders, the price on the chart is king. They're not that interested in the fundamentals, or whether it takes six weeks to buy Eagles etc. However...it's a big mistake to ignore the fundamentals and what is happening in the big wide world. Gold dropped 32% in 2008, bullion dealers were stripped to the floorboards, refiners and mints were overhelmed and people had to wait months for delivery and what happened next....... Not forgetting 1974-76 when gold halved and then went up eightfold. Edited April 24, 2013 by Take Me Back To London! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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