Quiet Guy

If you look at what starts wars, isn't this actually normal? I mean a horrendous blood bath over something initially relatively trivial. Once a war gets going, it can be really hard to get it to stop. Putin was apparently advised that the Russian army could do a "Thunder Run" into Kiev abd it would all be over in a few weeks. We all know how that went. I'm not supporting this war (there had to be a better way) but consider some words about the "unprovoked" attack:

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Friday said Western leaders are "one step away" from sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine. "We are one step away from the West sending troops to Ukraine. This is a military whirlpool that can drag Europe to the bottom. Brussels [the site of NATO headquarters] is playing with fire," Orbán said at a campaign event for his Fidesz political party, according to Hungarian broadcaster Hír TV. https://www.newsweek.com/western-leaders-are-one-step-away-sending-troops-ukraine-orban-1892387 I'd like to think Orban is wrong but wonder why he'd say this if he didn't think it was true.

Lloyd's of London are arguing that the bombing was likely co-ordinated by a national government due to the Ukraine conflict so they shouldn't have to pay a claim to Nord Stream AG. Hmm. I wonder which government would have wanted to "put an end to it" ? 🫤 https://thegrayzone.com/2024/04/17/uk-insurers-refuse-pay-nord-stream/

I'll pass on the "win" - all I said was "quite happy to watch" the resources sent to Ukraine. If the Ukraine conflict hadn't happened, would the US have more or less resources for assisting Taiwan? Almost $75 billion has been committed according to this article: https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts It wasn't all end of shelf life etc.

My take: the Chinese would be quite happy to watch the West spaffing it's remaining stocks of munitions on Ukraine.

"This is highly concerning. The ENTIRE selling point of the covid shot was that it would protect you from getting covid, it would boost your immune system to make it less severe. That was not truthful. As new “variants” came into existence, we just kept on shooting arms with the original vaccine. Even the newest boosters have ancestral Wuhan strains in them. And what has happened here is those old strains that are no longer making people sick (and haven’t since Delta arrived on scene in the summer of 2021) is by keeping that in the covid shots, we have wiped out the immune systems ability to recognize and fight the new “variants” out there. Why are heavily vaccinated people so sick with everything from covid to other viruses? This may hold the answer right here." https://docbrown77.substack.com/p/people-who-have-received-3-or-more

"A charitable view of Zelensky’s failure to end corruption or peacefully settle the Donbas conflict might be that he had little room to maneuver in either case. Corruption is deeply ingrained in the structure of post-Soviet states, and the sort of negotiated peace needed to finish the civil war could have compromised the country’s sovereignty to an extent that would have been anathema to large numbers of Ukrainians, some of whom had guns and a propensity to use them. Addressing these issues would have posed political and perhaps even personal risks. But Zelensky did have opportunities—and, for a time, an overwhelming political mandate—to do so. That he folded so swiftly contradicts his well-managed image of integrity and courage; more importantly, his failures of foresight and fortitude meant that Ukraine squandered its chance to avoid the current conflict. Indeed, if Zelensky could have stood down his domestic opponents, particularly in the honeymoon period after his 2019 victory, perhaps he would not have had to stand up to the Russians in February 2022." https://harpers.org/archive/2023/10/the-tragedy-of-volodymyr-zelensky/ Finding the way to a settlement of the Donbas conflict was never going to be easy but if the ex-comedian Ukrainian leader failed, we should not be caling him "amazing". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbtom7rXz3o

Which army do you think will do this ?

Some commentary about the way this conflict has evolved. Ukraine has been sniping at high value ships and aircraft (with the assistance of NATO operators ?) but the larger conflict has been steered towards attritional warfare which is a problem for Ukraine and should be something to think about for NATO. The fastest way to lose a war of attrition is to focus on manoeuvre, expending valuable resources on near-term territorial objectives. Recognising that wars of attrition have their own art is vital to winning them without sustaining crippling losses. Straight out of the Jean Monnet book, Vershinin then goes on to emphasise that wars of attrition are won by economies enabling mass mobilisation of militaries via their industrial sectors. Armies expand rapidly during such a conflict, requiring massive quantities of armoured vehicles, drones, electronic products, and other combat equipment. Because high-end weaponry is very complex to manufacture and consumes vast resources, a high-low mixture of forces and weapons is imperative in order to win. High-end weapons have exceptional performance but are difficult to manufacture, especially when needed to arm a rapidly mobilised army subjected to a high rate of attrition. These weapons also require high-end troops who take significant time to train – time which is unavailable in a war with high attrition rates. It is easier and faster, Vershinin points out, to produce large numbers of cheap weapons and munitions, especially if their subcomponents are interchangeable with civilian goods, ensuring mass quantity without the expansion of production lines. New recruits also absorb simpler weapons faster, allowing rapid generation of new formations or the reconstitution of existing ones. But, he warns, achieving mass is difficult for higher-end Western economies. https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/ukraine-why-the-war-is-lost/

An endgame is emerging.

No. Tragically, it's worse than that. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-mental-fitness-egypt-mexico-b2493280.html Biden should not be the US Commander in Chief or running for another Presidency.

From your Kyiv Post article: “We are surely approaching a moment for Europe in which it will be necessary not to be cowards,” Macron said during a visit to the Czech Republic. Hmm. Will Macron put on a uniform and go to the front line? I wonder if he realises how nasty this war is? And what's he implying about the three quarters of a million Ukrainian men who left? ( https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67787173 )

The German armed forces are mad. The leaking by Moscow of a 38-minute discussion between the head of the Luftwaffe and senior officers on sending Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine suggests that Nato’s will not to escalate the current war is weakening. The meeting, reportedly held on an unencrypted line, had all the secrecy of a teenage groupchat. It boosted Vladimir Putin’s claim that this is a war of the west against Russia, with Ukraine as mere proxy. The west’s justified objective in Ukraine was to help foil Putin’s attempt to topple Kyiv’s elected government. This was achieved in a matter of months, thanks to the Ukrainian army, with western logistical support. At no point did Nato risk that timeworn precursor of so many past European wars, the reckless escalation of a local conflict into a continent-wide one. But as the conflict in Ukraine has reached predictable stalemate, Nato’s strategy has lost all coherence. This is the moment when such wars run out of control. For two years now, western leaders have polished their macho images at home by visiting and goading Kyiv’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy to seek total victory with their help. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/05/nato-ukraine-russia-germany-military-leak

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68457087 According to Der Spiegel magazine, the videoconference was not held on a secret internal army network but on the WebEx platform ... Roderich Kiesewetter, from Germany's opposition conservatives, warned that further recordings may also be leaked. "A number of other conversations will certainly have been intercepted and may be leaked at a later date for Russia's benefit," he told broadcaster ZDF. It can be assumed "that the conversation was deliberately leaked by Russia at this point in time with a specific intention", namely "to prevent Taurus delivery by Germany", he said. This is unbelievably stupid of the Germans and plays right into Putin's hands.