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For Many, It'll Be A Very Unhappy Financial New Year-Telegraph


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HOLA441
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HOLA442
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HOLA443
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HOLA444
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HOLA445
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HOLA446

Let's see your manifesto.

Public sector pay cut, so that average pay is less than the private sector.

Big cuts to public sector pension benefits, including those on pensions at the moment.

Ten percent cuts to state pensions.

Ending SMI.

Prosecutions of bankers. All directors of banks to have unlimited liability in case their bank fails.

HB cut to bottom decile only, set on a national, not local basis.

Votes only allowed in shares if you are the individual beneficial owner.

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HOLA447

Public sector pay cut, so that average pay is less than the private sector.

Big cuts to public sector pension benefits, including those on pensions at the moment.

Ten percent cuts to state pensions.

Ending SMI.

Prosecutions of bankers. All directors of banks to have unlimited liability in case their bank fails.

HB cut to bottom decile only, set on a national, not local basis.

Votes only allowed in shares if you are the individual beneficial owner.

And raise state pension age more quickly.

Wind down all current private defined benefit schemes.

Massive public works to get long term unemployed used to working again.

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HOLA448
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HOLA449

What impact on the structural deficit would you see any level of banker windfall tax or whatever else we want to call it having? I can't see how it closes it, even the bank stuff is only measured in at best a few tens of billions when the problem is now in the hundreds, every year.

Myself, I think arguing about how it's all shared out is secondary to the problem that we're consuming it but without generating it.

I am shocked tonight after checking GBP exchange rate against a basket of currencies (including used to be rubbish currencies like the South African Rand).

Also, saw an item at B&Q that was up about 18% since a year ago.

BoE just have to hope that inflation expectation doesn't get out of hand or capital flight does not start..

No other way other than structural reform. £150bn 'deficit/stimulus' is now having the effects that BoE dare not think about..

A business in such situation would draw a list of its competitive advantages, its costs and put all the focus on the advantages and cut all the costs and

hope the patient survive. Such a business certainly won't have time to worry about employees revolting if their coffee machine is canned.

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HOLA4410

I am shocked tonight after checking GBP exchange rate against a basket of currencies (including used to be rubbish currencies like the South African Rand).

Also, saw an item at B&Q that was up about 18% since a year ago.

BoE just have to hope that inflation expectation doesn't get out of hand or capital flight does not start..

No other way other than structural reform. £150bn 'deficit/stimulus' is now having the effects that BoE dare not think about..

A business in such situation would draw a list of its competitive advantages, its costs and put all the focus on the advantages and cut all the costs and

hope the patient survive. Such a business certainly won't have time to worry about employees revolting if their coffee machine is canned.

UK investment figures are chronic too - swamped by currency driven cheap takeovers of what little remains of UK productive capacity - which will be then further whittled away and shifted abroad.

Mega-expensive London is going to scupper the service/financial services sector too - look fro a big increse in cost cutting and offshoring of that too in 2011, companies cant wait any longer for the cost base to be rebalanced. Destroying the currency and artificially keeping the cost base high is going to cause chronic medium and long term problems.

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HOLA4411

What impact on the structural deficit would you see any level of banker windfall tax or whatever else we want to call it having? I can't see how it closes it, even the bank stuff is only measured in at best a few tens of billions when the problem is now in the hundreds, every year.

We're all in this together mate, haven't you heard? Those who caused it will ultimately pay the highest price. Geddit?

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HOLA4412

Yet another scare story in the telegraph telling us all what we all already know, even the mumsnetters know all this, though they choose not to talk about it in public.

This article is the journalistic equivalent of a pot noodle, with all the seasonings and spices that torygraph readers love liberally applied, leaving a nice bitter taste but failing to provide an ounce of actual new information.

What a sh1t rag.

mumsnetters know this but prefer not to talk about it?....how do you know they know all this?

Mrs Loo knows her employer has her over a barrel as there are no jobs for her to move to.

She also knows her wages are not stretching quite as far, and that benefits are something she will never get.

Shes not a mumsnetter, but if she was, Im sure she would have mentioned the above FACTS....as it is she sees her colleagues still trying to take on 6 times joint salary mortgages, credit cards maxed and new ones obtained, the latest fashion handbags adorning 13K arms.

heads in the sand. Or they dont give a sh1t because "they" are invulnerable...like young people never die.

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HOLA4413

Yet another scare story in the telegraph telling us all what we all already know, even the mumsnetters know all this, though they choose not to talk about it in public.

100% incorrect.

Most Brits still believe that debt = wealth. And you can't go wrong with bricks and mortar.

According to creditaction, household debt in the UK is still rising.

Even Radio 4 thinks that we'll be able to get back to normal next year - an economy based on financial services, consumption (imports) and debt.

Articles like the one in the Telegraph are not scaremongering - they're factual, actually!

Edited by Arbitrage
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HOLA4414

We're all in this together mate, haven't you heard? Those who caused it will ultimately pay the highest price. Geddit?

I'm suggesting that talk of windfall bank taxes is simply emotion. The issue is that the state spends wealth the nation does not create. There is no other issue, all else is illusory. The state must contract, the answer is not to be found on the income (tax) side wherever we may dream we can look.

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HOLA4415

Nothing new here. The deleveraging continues. Public, Private debt has to be paid off. The real issue going forward is how to get descent sustainable growth & jobs, not just in the UK but in every western country.

Low tech manufacturing has or will cease to exist in most Western economies. We can’t compete with wages in Asia where you can employ 35 people for the cost of one of us. We are addicted to cheap consumer goods, weaning ourselves of this heroin will be virtually impossible.

High tech manufacturing, services are the only sectors Western economies have a chance of competing in.

The world has changed massively in the last 20 years, we don’t have enough (any?) price sensitive export industries to give the economy the boost it needs from a devalued currency.

There is not easy way out of this, we are too small to really do anything. Until the imbalance between the producing east and the consuming west is solved we will not see a return to stability.

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HOLA4416

Do you think "we" all know it? That's not the impression I get every time I see the public engaging on the subject. All I see are the likes of Question Time audiences baying for "free" education, more of this and that and basically business as usual on the never-never.

+ 1

What impact on the structural deficit would you see any level of banker windfall tax or whatever else we want to call it having? I can't see how it closes it, even the bank stuff is only measured in at best a few tens of billions when the problem is now in the hundreds, every year.

Myself, I think arguing about how it's all shared out is secondary to the problem that we're consuming it but without generating it.

+ 1

Thanks bogbrush, you frequently save me from having to type. :)

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HOLA4417

What impact on the structural deficit would you see any level of banker windfall tax or whatever else we want to call it having? I can't see how it closes it, even the bank stuff is only measured in at best a few tens of billions when the problem is now in the hundreds, every year.

Myself, I think arguing about how it's all shared out is secondary to the problem that we're consuming it but without generating it.

Yap - you can't re-distribute what you don't have...

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HOLA4418

Good piece albeit a rather optimistic one. The government is literally busting our finances to keep the illusion going while hoping for an inflation that would make it all go away. Unfortunately numbers don't lie and markets are noticing that the austerity programme was just a myth. On top of everything else, I would expect payback to be particularly painful on this point (will Merv trash the currency or will he let rates rise???).

Still, nice to see the MSM coming up with a rather lucid view of things, thanks for the post.

:lol: love your posts man!

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HOLA4419

High tech manufacturing, services are the only sectors Western economies have a chance of competing in.

You seem to believe that the Chinese/Japanese/Koreans/Indians cannot do this yet. Some of the stuff coming out of China may well be poor quality right now, but look at Japan and Korea. Japan made terrible quality in the 1960s and 1970s today they are absolutely dominant in car and motorbike manufacture as well as electronics.

Hyundai is an even faster climber, 1990s Hyundais were horrible (namely because they used licenced ford engines which were unreliable anyway) by 2005 Hyundais are as good as any other brand of car, they closed the gap in 10 years.

2014 is the first Chinese airliner the C919 it's been given its certification to fly.

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HOLA4420
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HOLA4421

Indeed, and in the long run it will be good if the country wakes from the decades-long illusion that borrowing = wealth creation, but in the meantime there must be scapegoats; thankfully this government will last the 5 years and perhaps take matters beyond the point where even a new Labour government could turn it back.

Reality approaches.

I am not sure 5 years will be enough to clear this mess. The problem is not just the public finances, but that the whole country drifted away from a productive economy, and towards a... "parasitic" economy? Inflated welfare state and public sectors. It will take time to reform that. Not to mention education and cultural aspects.

And (until we reform party funding?) Labour will always be hostage to the unions, particularly public sector unions, and will always re-distort the economy towards a large state - re-inflating the welfare state and public sectors.

"New Labour" had very enlightened reforming intentions, and they had around 2/3 of the Labour MPs ("Old Labour" had around 1/3), and the party leader (Blair), and they still failed to reform the country, blocked by the unions and the public sector. If Labour wins again, they will feck the country gain.

Britain's best hope will be an electoral pact between the LibDems and the Conservatives at the next GElection.

.

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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HOLA4422

They would vote for an old wise Chimpanzee from London Zoo if they thought that would save them from terrible financial pain. I have spent 50 years studying the mentality of the British Electorate, but Hey we always seem to survive as another Saviour comes forth. ;) Who could it be this time one may well ask? :)

I can't honestly see anyone at this present time worth voting for, all much of a muchness no true leader/saviour they all have their own selfish agendas.....many of the politicians live in a bubble of their own making and are happy to continue trying to fool us.

Nothing will change drastically until people personally feel the real pain...there will be lots of anger and blame thrown around. They will see how the wealth of the country is not evenly distributed, the ones that take and consume the most are not putting in a fair contribution......the poor they will spoil it for the rich. ;)

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HOLA4423

Yep.

Import tariffs, higher top-end and bankster windfall taxes are becoming an urgent priority.

Come on Osborne - make your Bullingdon buddies cough up their windfall gains!

Thought it was "call me Dave" the "cast iron guarantee" PM who was a member of the Bullingdon Club and not George the son of the wall paper magnate?

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HOLA4424

I am not sure 5 years will be enough to clear this mess. The problem is not just the public finances, but that the whole country drifted away from a productive economy, and towards a... "parasitic" economy? Inflated welfare state and public sectors. It will take time to reform that. Not to mention education and cultural aspects.

And (until we reform party funding?) Labour will always be hostage to the unions, particularly public sector unions, and will always re-distort the economy towards a large state - re-inflating the welfare state and public sectors.

"New Labour" had very enlightened reforming intentions, and they had around 2/3 of the Labour MPs ("Old Labour" had around 1/3), and the party leader (Blair), and they still failed to reform the country, blocked by the unions and the public sector. If Labour wins again, they will feck the country gain.

Britain's best hope will be an electoral pact between the LibDems and the Conservatives at the next GElection.

.

Definitely 5 years is nowhere near enough, but it might be long enough to tip things over. Yes, another Coalition would be handy.

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HOLA4425

You seem to believe that the Chinese/Japanese/Koreans/Indians cannot do this yet. Some of the stuff coming out of China may well be poor quality right now, but look at Japan and Korea. Japan made terrible quality in the 1960s and 1970s today they are absolutely dominant in car and motorbike manufacture as well as electronics.

Hyundai is an even faster climber, 1990s Hyundais were horrible (namely because they used licenced ford engines which were unreliable anyway) by 2005 Hyundais are as good as any other brand of car, they closed the gap in 10 years.

2014 is the first Chinese airliner the C919 it's been given its certification to fly.

Yes, China will probably develop, as Japan and Korea did. But as with Japan and Korea, that will not be a problem for the the currently developed economies, as Chinese salaries will also increase with development, as in Japan and Korea.

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