BelfastVI Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 BelfastVI, how are you fairing these days in the game? Are you finding it as it is being reported in the media or can you give a reasoned view using "at the coal face" facts? Do you see thigns picking up any or is it same old same old? As I have been saying for quite a while I don't see things improving for quite some times. Some reports will show improvements in volume, others will show drops. Its a pretty mixed picture from the media. For ourselves we have had the best start to the year for, I would say the last three. However, the figures have turned out that way because of a particularly excellent April. I mentioned this before and got accused of all sorts. May is back down again. Even when I posted in April on the good month I suggested it was a blip and it appears that way. In the good areas sales are happening. If you are in the other areas you will struggle. Most of the areas we build in actually registered a price rise in the latest UUJ report, although I take some of the regional figures with a pinch of salt. Not for a minute would I be putting prices up. They have remained constant for some time. I do see more activity in the mortgage market. Whilst, firstly that is good to help people finance a house it secondly,shows that confidence is returning from that quarter(what other reading can you take from more suppliers in the market). But there is no quick fix. Its just part of the slow process back. All eyes are on the banks now. They have bled most dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I was only commenting on your contention that the rate of falls is again accelerating As for the volume, its higher than 7 or the last 11 quarters. May well go down the next quarter. Its one of the important things to me. May well not be to others. Its no big deal, its just went up a bit. On the statistics, I wasnt referring to the analysis or the comment on it. more on the actual figures. You claim the report lacks academic valiadity by continuing to report in the sub-region format that it always has just because volumes are down. I claim that to alter the way it presents data would leave it open to crys of foul. To repeat, I believe it could improve by including the sub-regional figures. I dont believe the UUJ report attempted to hide the year on year decrease in prices. I believe they even lead with that in their media release and most media outlets also reported the 15% year on year drop. My emphasis was on the Q/Q figures which I know can't be relied upon as much as Yr/Yr figures. Maybe it'll turn out to be just a blip but the average HPI Q/Q change for q1 2011 was -8% and there has only been one other quarter since the crash began when the average HPI Q/Q fall was more than this. The graph on page 8 of the UU report also clearly points to a change in direction in price movement after what could maybe be viewed in the future as having been a classic 'bull trap' recovery. If the sample size doesn't support the kind of definitive conclusions arrived at the past e.g detached houses in North down rose this quarter by x% where x is plainly nonsense in relation to what's actually happening in the local market, then the report to me lacks academic creditability. To perpetuate a wrong simply because to acknowledge it would draw attention to it is in my view unacceptable. On a positive note, I see less evidence of that in this report compared to some of the previous ridiculous statements that were made. Maybe the penny has dropped and we are witnessing a subtle change of tack. I don't think I said that the UU attempted to hide the -15% year drop, that was certainly not my intention. I was actually suggesting that it was you who was spinning some yarn about 2 year prices and that things weren't as bad as they used to be. Maybe that's just VI speak for calling/suggesting the bottom or a means of sending subliminal messages to unsuspecting FTBers LOL. I too hope volume also picks up over the rest of the year as I believe that can only happen with further significant price falls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinbin Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 All eyes are on the banks now. They have bled most dry. Is this the 'blamethrower' being deployed ?? ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastVI Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I don't think I said that the UU attempted to hide the -15% year drop, that was certainly not my intention. I was actually suggesting that it was you who was spinning some yarn about 2 year prices and that things weren't as bad as they used to be. Maybe that's just VI speak for calling/suggesting the bottom or a means of sending subliminal messages to unsuspecting FTBers LOL. I too hope volume also picks up over the rest of the year as I believe that can only happen with further significant price falls. I was certainly not spinning any yarn but taking the actual figures and looking at Year on Year, which is around -15% and looking at double that timespan which works out at -8%. If I am inaccurate in any way please inform me. If I look at the two previous years you will see a fall of around 35%. This is factual and accurately taken from the UUJ figures. As you say yourself Q/Q cannot be relied upon as must as Y/Y. Looking at it over a two year time frame should, by your logic, and mine, should be more reliable. I don't expect to see unsuspecting FTB'ers in here all. mast are well versed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastVI Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Is this the 'blamethrower' being deployed ?? No not at all. Just stating facts about where the business world sees the major treats, in response to a question I was asked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 (edited) I was certainly not spinning any yarn but taking the actual figures and looking at Year on Year, which is around -15% and looking at double that timespan which works out at -8%. If I am inaccurate in any way please inform me. If I look at the two previous years you will see a fall of around 35%. This is factual and accurately taken from the UUJ figures. As you say yourself Q/Q cannot be relied upon as must as Y/Y. Looking at it over a two year time frame should, by your logic, and mine, should be more reliable. I don't expect to see unsuspecting FTB'ers in here all. mast are well versed. Good to see that FTBers are well versed - maybe this forum has a wider audience that we imagine. I was looking again at the indicies and was trying to remember whether the Nationwide or Halifax had the largest mortgage sales in Northern Ireland. I think you've talked about this before but I can't find the post or any relevant data. Is their any consensus on which of these 2 indicies is more reliable for local prices? Edited May 25, 2011 by lolacarrascal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastVI Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Good to see that FTBers are well versed - maybe this forum has a wider audience that we imagine. I was looking again at the indicies and was trying to remember whether the Nationwide or Halifax had the largest mortgage sales in Northern Ireland. I think you've talked about this before but I can't find the post or any relevant data. Is their any consensus on which of these 2 indicies is more reliable for local prices? I am only going from memory but the Nationwide had up to 30% of the market and Halifax had 15 to 20%. Not sure what Halifax is at now but the Nationwide is down to less than 7%. Most here that use the Nationwide figures acknowledge that its market share weakens its accuracy. Although it is probably the lowest of all the surveys, of around £120k, I like using it because of the detail it gives in its reports. The most accurate is probably the CML report as they will know the actual selling prices, and claim to cover about 80% of all new mortgages. However, they are low on detail. What I meant to say, in the earlier post about the people in this forum was: I viewed most of the people, who come in here to be well versed and not unsuspecting FTB'ers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 I am only going from memory but the Nationwide had up to 30% of the market and Halifax had 15 to 20%. Not sure what Halifax is at now but the Nationwide is down to less than 7%. Most here that use the Nationwide figures acknowledge that its market share weakens its accuracy. Although it is probably the lowest of all the surveys, of around £120k, I like using it because of the detail it gives in its reports. The most accurate is probably the CML report as they will know the actual selling prices, and claim to cover about 80% of all new mortgages. However, they are low on detail. What I meant to say, in the earlier post about the people in this forum was: I viewed most of the people, who come in here to be well versed and not unsuspecting FTB'ers. Thanks, I had thought it was something like that but wasn't sure if it was still valid with talk of Nationwide's decreasing share. Did you recently post a link to the CML report? I can't remember which thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 No not at all. Just stating facts about where the business world sees the major treats, in response to a question I was asked. I'd like to know why my bank isn't giving me any treats after all I've done for them. They can threaten me if they like - I'll just ignore them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 (edited) I don't know whether house prices, on average, have fallen further than this report suggests or not. You say some EA's don't bother to contribute. Going up or down, this picture is incomplete and I have given a few reasons why, in my mind, I have some reservations. If prices go up, I am a realist, and would like that info also - as long as the veracity of it is proven Thanks for the answers BTW. I also alluded to a proper Land Registry system and agree current one isn't helpful re sold prices. A step in the right direction? Well worth a read. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2011/0526/1224297780457.html The index ushers in an era of stricter standards in price information on Irish property. This has been sorely lacking and has made its own contribution to the implosion of the market, which sent shock waves through the economy. The index should serve as an antidote to the sometimes confusing, not to say self-serving, statements and reports issued by various banks, estate agents and others on the housing market here. For practitioners in the property industry, it is novel and refreshing to hear CSO statistician, Paul Crowley, state that it would not be producing average property prices in the index because “average house prices are relatively meaningless”. At last, somebody has said it. “We can produce them, but they don’t mean anything,” he said. Quite. Edited May 26, 2011 by Shotoflight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul65 Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 A step in the right direction? Well worth a read. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2011/0526/1224297780457.html The index ushers in an era of stricter standards in price information on Irish property. This has been sorely lacking and has made its own contribution to the implosion of the market, which sent shock waves through the economy. The index should serve as an antidote to the sometimes confusing, not to say self-serving, statements and reports issued by various banks, estate agents and others on the housing market here. For practitioners in the property industry, it is novel and refreshing to hear CSO statistician, Paul Crowley, state that it would not be producing average property prices in the index because “average house prices are relatively meaningless”. At last, somebody has said it. “We can produce them, but they don’t mean anything,” he said. Quite. Great article - thanks for signposting me to it. Have now shared it with others via Facebook and twitter. The more people that know about this index the better IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 (edited) That may be but its the EA's that sell the houses and you have to get the infor from someone. Our Land Registers is worse than useless so if you want reports like this they have to come from either the Estate Agents or the major mortgage lenders. In this case you have both and a respected university to overseeit and give analysis. I could understand your consern if this was showing a rise but it is showing a 15% year on year drop. Did you think there had been bigger drops this year? They pay the contributors nothing. Not all of the estate Agents bother. They cover the production costs of putting the report together and printing. Advertisement Nothing That is correct and through the majority of the past 100 years that has been the case. Most of the public view falling house prices and a recession in general as a bad thing. or heres another one . Joe also attacks the media saying "This is in no way detracting from the very valuable analysis of the house price data compiled by the University of Ulster’s team. Rather it is a cautionary note for the media, who by reporting selectively or without providing the total context can raise or dash the hopes and prospects of first time buyers and investors quite unnecessarily." I dont believe that is at all what he is implying. He is stating that these reports, infact none, measure the amount of 'standing stock'. He is correct in saying that this would be a useful addition to the discussion but he is not in any way implying that this information is being in anyway withheld. I agree fully, and the same approach must be taken with all the other reports, particularly the Nationwides as it has such small coverage of the NI Mortgage market now. I see Professor Al Adair is both Professor of Property Investment and Chairman of RICS NI. http://www.rics.org/site/scripts/press_article.aspx?pressreleaseID=245 I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions. See also the ROI attempt to provide worthwhile data (previous post) and the view taken of earlier various reports (ROI) and their impact on the bust, for what 'could' be achieved here if there was the will. Edited May 26, 2011 by Shotoflight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2buyornot2buy Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I see Professor Al Adair is both Professor of Property Investment and Chairman of RICS NI. http://www.rics.org/site/scripts/press_article.aspx?pressreleaseID=245 I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions. See also the ROI attempt to provide worthwhile data (previous post) and the view taken of earlier various reports (ROI) and their impact on the bust, for what 'could' be achieved here if there was the will. RICS and chairman of Irish Auctioneers and Valuers Institute. Obviously not potential of bias towards high house prices there then. It would be interesting to know if there’s a BTL as a pension plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lolacarrascal Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 lolacarrascal could I have your permission to take out the graphs and put them in a separate thread to be pinned at the top.. There is a lot of valuable work in them and I don't want them buried in a big thread which is difficult to access. Sure, no problem. Was thinking of putting it all together in one or two larger files. Happy to do that or to just keep as separate pdfs - your preference really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastVI Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 2011 Q2 Nationwide Report in showing a Quarter on Quarter increase of 3%. Increase from £119,913 to £123,547. I don't pay much attention to these as it could well be down again next quarter as it bounces along. My link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r+r Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 properties selling below asking well i never http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-14405683 rock on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r+r Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 properties selling below asking well i never http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-14405683 rock on! just heard adair on the beeb "the housing market is recovering" rock on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pajd Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 The number of transactions between April and June rose to 1,062 compared to 925 in the first quarter of 2011 House sales rise at a time when they exepcted to rise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pajd Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 just heard adair on the beeb "the housing market is recovering" rock on! You would think he would read the BBC website before spouting crap.......... Compared to the second quarter of last year, detached houses in Northern Ireland have fallen by 23%, terraced/townhouses by 18%, detached bungalows by 16% and semi-detached bungalows by 11.8%.Apartments have fallen by 11.8% and semi-detached houses saw the lowest rate of annual decline, down by 8.2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 House sales rise at a time when they exepcted to rise Jim fitzpatrick (JF) on BBC around 8.15 - Business& Economic editor I think - His sources tell him all that is shifting is between £40k and £80k. The odd FTB and brave investor. JF is very well connected on these matters and can speak with authority. He said " anyone trying to sell an average priced house anytime soon is likely to be very disappointed". Nolan kicked off on the global, bringing it down to local with local economic 'pundit' John Simpson and I think Richard Johnson from the Tax Alliance (I think). didn't hear it but Johnston is sharp and IIRC was on before debating with Simpson re corporation tax. Johnson promptly tore Simpson a new a*sehole on that occasion deconstructing every opinion and assumption Simpson peddled. May try to catch up this pm on iplayer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 (edited) Helen is still gainfully employed http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/university-of-ulsters-northern-ireland-house-price-survey-reveals-rising-sales-and-falling-prices-16032711.html In contrast to Jim Fitzpatrick (£40k to £80k most sales) Estate agent Mr Brien said: "We have agreed over 100 house sales in July, which is traditionally a quiet month, with the majority of those in the first-time buyer sector priced from £100,000-£175,000. Any price drop needs to be looked at in consideration of what is selling that are starter homes. That is what is pulling house prices down." Meanwhile, Alan Bridle, UK economist, Bank of Ireland, said: "The increased market activity of the last quarter at more affordable prices, partly driven by cash-buyers, is inevitably dragging the overall average price lower as a form of market clearing takes place." Joe Frey is a bit more cautious And Joe Frey, the Housing Executive's head of research, added: "The higher volume of transactions during the second quarter of 2011 is good news. However, it is important to be cautious." Mr Frey warned the full impact of public sector cuts, including reductions in Housing Benefit, have yet to be felt. So cash buyers and repos are dragging the market down. Because nothing else is selling. Well then, currently, this is the market. Comments open on Tele. Feel free to use. They have a tendency to lock or remove if they don't follow the script. Edited August 5, 2011 by Shotoflight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 2011 Q2 Nationwide Report in showing a Quarter on Quarter increase of 3%. Increase from £119,913 to £123,547. I don't pay much attention to these as it could well be down again next quarter as it bounces along. My link You'd be right not to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfast Boy Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 just heard adair on the beeb "the housing market is recovering" Adair has been saying that for the last 4 years and he is still wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shotoflight Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Adair has been saying that for the last 4 years and he is still wrong. Would that be Al Adair, Professor of Property Investment ? Challenging times for this 'academic dicipline' currently, methinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pajd Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Helen is still gainfully employed http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/university-of-ulsters-northern-ireland-house-price-survey-reveals-rising-sales-and-falling-prices-16032711.html Look at the first comment by Alan Brooke. I wonder what he is on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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