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B B C Radio London 94.9 10.08.08


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HOLA441
As I pointed out earlier on this thread, personal attacks are to be expected from this point onwards, sadly.

I suppose I'd be looking for someone to blame too if I had bought a couple of properties in 2005 and only 3 years later prices had dropped back to June 2006 levels over a 6 months duration with no end to the fall in sight.

The silver lining is that the BTL poor will have to cut back on luxuries like broadband in the future, so their bile will reduce over time.

For the record I have taken 100K out over the last 3 years and invested this in other ways. I have two remaining properties that are both 50% LTV and make +850 cashflow a month overall from the rent. That for the record is a success from an original 15K investment. Choosing properties carefully, buying at a good price and adding lots of value is all I did. Its not rocket science but it seemd to work out well.

Being still young I have lots still to learn but have quickly learnt there are lots of people who will happily tell you how to do things, but rarely have the success behind them. Still if you or anyone else is still willing to explain why STRing in 2002 is a good idea I'll be happy to listen. Until now I just get met with abuse on this site for asking the question - hence why the personal attacks back !!

For you Paddles, I have no idea what success or expertise you base your arguments on. I'd be interested to know. My argument all along is that the market going up or down is not important. It's how you approach each individual property investment with the right attitude to make money the moment you buy. STRing is a very dangerous and risky strategy that seems not to have paid off for a few on here. For me it looks like they want to talk the market down for their own vested interest. I find that interesting and like to discuss it!

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HOLA442
For the record I have taken 100K out over the last 3 years and invested this in other ways. I have two remaining properties that are both 50% LTV and make +850 cashflow a month overall from the rent. That for the record is a success from an original 15K investment. Choosing properties carefully, buying at a good price and adding lots of value is all I did. Its not rocket science but it seemd to work out well.

Being still young I have lots still to learn but have quickly learnt there are lots of people who will happily tell you how to do things, but rarely have the success behind them. Still if you or anyone else is still willing to explain why STRing in 2002 is a good idea I'll be happy to listen. Until now I just get met with abuse on this site for asking the question - hence why the personal attacks back !!

For you Paddles, I have no idea what success or expertise you base your arguments on. I'd be interested to know. My argument all along is that the market going up or down is not important. It's how you approach each individual property investment with the right attitude to make money the moment you buy. STRing is a very dangerous and risky strategy that seems not to have paid off for a few on here. For me it looks like they want to talk the market down for their own vested interest. I find that interesting and like to discuss it!

The time on the beach didn't last too long, eh.

The property market has been subject to a bubble since the Fed slashed interest rates after 911. Anyone can make money on the way up in a bubble, that's how they work.

Trouble is, there are only two certain rules in a bubble;

1. They pop.

2. You can't predict when.

Well done for your non-property investment with your withdrawn cash. What did you buy; gold, oil, agriculture?

Edited by Paddles
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HOLA443
Oh dear. Discussing things on internet forums is a little like arguing with a bunch of 5 year olds. I've had a bit of free time but now I'm going to be busy again so no more posts for me to entertain you.

The site has dangerous advice but its not for me to rally and show the truth. The worst I've found is FPlanner - STR in 2002 and now an expert on the housing market. Please FP - you have no place to be commenting on an industry you know nothing about. Your a complete farce with no credibility.

Others here with over 5000 posts , Firstly stop posting and join the real human world. Secondly it does not make you wise to have a lot of posts. I see no advice worth following on here. Most big posters are I suspect also angry and old. One who's name escapes me (Elizabeth is it) blaming the rising market on her not being able to buy a house. She then admits she's 55 years old. Think that shows what an ar*e she is.

I'll be off to the beach, bricking it :rolleyes: I don't think ! Enjoy your rented accommodation and your sad 9-5 lives. x

Tempted to respond with 'you are Caroline Flint and I claim....' but doubt that CF has the temerity to comment here.

Why not turn this thread into something productive and discuss what would provoke any individual to make such controversial and antagonistic posts?

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HOLA444
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HOLA445
If anyone is at all interested in feeding back on the recent broadcasts - See S WHitely top of page 2 - I for one would be glad of it.

Good work FP. Thoroughly enjoyed your performance - told it like it is. Lot of people still in denial out there though.

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HOLA446
If anyone is at all interested in feeding back on the recent broadcasts - See S WHitely top of page 2 - I for one would be glad of it.

Can't see 'S Whitely' on the main board....page 2?...not sure where to look!

IMO your comments in recent interviews have been clear, pointed and well....just plain sensible.

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HOLA447

AWOOOGA

SO obviously a troll - bought in 2005 and made ALL that money?? :lol: .... we are already back to 2004 prices in REAL terms and falling fast!! :rolleyes:

Going down big style - what a nasty piece of work. Not going too well is it? ;)

Yes since 2005 that is what I made. It's not a lie, it's not a boast - it's just fact. I don't need to show off or lie to a complete bunch of strangers on an internet site. As a girlie I can get all the attention I want by just wiggling my **** in a pub ;)

Fixed rates for 3 years more and large LTV ratios help shelter from going down "big time" I hope. There is of course always that risk - we cannot predict the future.

Your other rude comments just show how angry you are. Why the anger... did you too STR in 2002?

And its on this point I'm still stuck on... Individuals that STRed in 2001 and 2002, are today the spokesman and other loud voices for a house price crash. I say this perhaps looks like vested interest and suggests their personal decision hugely influences the noise they make today. To me its completely farcical. They tried to profit from the housing market and it didn't pay off from them. They then turn their anger on anything from B2Letters to Kirsty Allsop. Seems they need someone to blame for their mind numbing & risky decision!!!! Does anyone agree / disagree / have any comment on this ...?

I'd understand if a bunch of FTBuyers unable to buy were the spokespersons.. Remember I too was a FTB in 2005 and felt a little angry having to take such a risk and large mortgage (6* from Lloyds as already mentioned on another post I made) just to buy a derelict p*ss pit for a first house. But the anger didn't last as I realised you have to make the best of what's thrown at you... hence why no regrets or feeling i'm a nasty piece of work now. You make your own luck as they say.... however I would still understand if FTBuyers were the ones directing this call for a crash...but the STRers !!! please someone answer and help me understand...

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HOLA448
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HOLA449
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HOLA4410
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HOLA4411
I'll be off to the beach, bricking it :rolleyes: I don't think ! Enjoy your rented accommodation and your sad 9-5 lives. x

I remember a Troll recently (Clareinspain??) I think... that kept stating after each debate "Right I`m off to the beach" calling everyone suckers and losers :blink: She would always be back online minutes later

For what it is worth I have spoken to FP on a few occasions and actually met the man recently and would like to add that he appears to be a genuine decent fellow and seems to be doing very well for himself. Who is to say that any decision he made, when and for whatever reason was the wrong decision.

Personally I have no real issues with people who BTL or STR and will only reserve personal insults to those who attack me or my family.

I think it is daft to say you hate someone because they chose a certain course to better themselves. Those that read the market and were also a bit lucky deserve good fortune and those that were just naive and greedy will be burned completely.

Many who BTL never for once considered there responsibilties as LL`s and deserve to fry but some who took the responsibilty seriously and managed the buisness fairly with consideration for tennants rights and not solely on profits deserve a fair crack.

Happy Teaboy, good luck to you and good luck in your decisions in life but try and lay off the personal attacks. I think you have the abilty to create great debate, tone down the gloating and understand we do not know very much about anyone who posts on this forum including FP.

Bosh

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HOLA4412
No sensible answer on the simple question I guess proves the point. Shame, it seems youre silence speaks louder than words FP and others.

Youre (sic) words speak louder than words. For the wrong reasons. Still entertaining. Why so angry?

Edited by Si1
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HOLA4413
No, I got priced out. I'm only angry at people like yourself - your attitude to others that you know nothing about quite frankly stinks.

Completely wrong again and assuming too much - what makes you think someone that has already lived through and seen/experienced the previous housing crash was necessarily trying to make money?. With house prices at already at high income multiples in 2001 and 2002 then many would have thought a crash was imminent and wanted to exit the market to protect their own or their families wealth knowing what had happened in the last 80's to early 90's where many people had years of negative equity or lost their homes through rising interest rates.

Just because someone STR'ed in 2001/2002 doesn't make them someone that was trying to profit from property - if that was their aim then they would have stayed in the market until 2007 ffs!!!. Some people took a cautious approach and exited a market that should have risen no further, but a cut in interest rates to 3.5% in 2003 coupled with interest only mortgages, lying to get a mortgage (self-certifying false earnings) and the BTL speculative fever not seen before just drove the market even higher.

It's wasn't normal people that drove the market into a bubble, it was greedy and dishonest people yet again. People who would do anything to get rich quick at someone elses expense, namely the first-time-buyers. Anyone who either found themselves intentionally or unintentionally priced-out is going to feel a little angry that the situation was allowed to develope yet again and was aided and abetted by property ramping programmes, bent mortgage brokers and lenders like Northern Rock who were only willing to dish out the cheap money at silly multiples to people who couldn't to keep up with the repayments once rates started to rise.

Anyway, I'm quite bored with this now - why not go and do something useful with your life and your community.

Thanks for answering.

Just goes to show although many people thought a crash was imminent in 2002, it didn't come. Other factors took hold of events. However much analysis and people telling you us know what will happen it just doesn't always play out like that ! Something I'm trying to keep in mind this time with the all noise telling me a crash will see prices 50% down. The same way I tried to ignore everyone telling me the house market would only ever go up. I protected myself when buying in 2005-2007.

I'm learning to ignore the personal remarks now thanks. I could be the one saving you in hospital one day ! (that could be something useful for you maybe!). Like you say I've learnt now to comment on others personally I know nothing about.

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HOLA4414

Anyone who bought in 2005 and did not sell by 2007 took a MASSIVE risk. Indeed, prices will be abck to 2005 levels by the spring, if not before. They will be at 2004 levels by late 2009. Thus, whoever bought in 2005 and increased their mortgages is about to realise their folly.

Mortgage rates on BTL have risen dramatically and rents have at best stayed static, fallen mainly.

There may be good equity still but the prices have not risen yet there is big debt on falling assets. Also, rents only just cover total costs - mortgage, LA, repairs etc

Any property (generalisation) bought in 2005 will fall > 25% by the bottom. But the mortgage will not. Neither will the rent rise.

Not so smart.

As for me, I only publicly warned about HPs since 2004 and in the media since 2006.

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HOLA4415
[deleted]

It's probably the same mentality that's let me start and run my own business and now live abroad 70% of the year by a beach and enjoy seeing my children grow up.

OMFG! You're not in Amway, I hope? No offence, but you sound just like a brainwashed, soon-to-be-bankrupt Ambot!

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HOLA4416
Anyone who bought in 2005 and did not sell by 2007 took a MASSIVE risk. Indeed, prices will be abck to 2005 levels by the spring, if not before. They will be at 2004 levels by late 2009. Thus, whoever bought in 2005 and increased their mortgages is about to realise their folly.

Mortgage rates on BTL have risen dramatically and rents have at best stayed static, fallen mainly.

There may be good equity still but the prices have not risen yet there is big debt on falling assets. Also, rents only just cover total costs - mortgage, LA, repairs etc

Any property (generalisation) bought in 2005 will fall > 25% by the bottom. But the mortgage will not. Neither will the rent rise.

Not so smart.

As for me, I only publicly warned about HPs since 2004 and in the media since 2006.

the most bullish - or at least bullish with an economic justification - forum member (on the old FT forum) in 2002/3 was a chap named Hoog, a financial analyst, I believe. Even he, with his BTL investments, described property then as a 'hold' and not a 'buy', as it seemed expensive even then.

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HOLA4417
Anyone who bought in 2005 and did not sell by 2007 took a MASSIVE risk. Indeed, prices will be abck to 2005 levels by the spring, if not before. They will be at 2004 levels by late 2009. Thus, whoever bought in 2005 and increased their mortgages is about to realise their folly.

Mortgage rates on BTL have risen dramatically and rents have at best stayed static, fallen mainly.

There may be good equity still but the prices have not risen yet there is big debt on falling assets. Also, rents only just cover total costs - mortgage, LA, repairs etc

Any property (generalisation) bought in 2005 will fall > 25% by the bottom. But the mortgage will not. Neither will the rent rise.

Not so smart.

As for me, I only publicly warned about HPs since 2004 and in the media since 2006.

Thanks for posting back. I disagree with all of the above in the same way I disagreed with all bullish viewpoints in the last 3 years 2005- 2008. I heard rents would only rise, interest rates would stay low, houses will always go up etc, etc. I placed no credibility on their statements and I place no credibility on your forecasts. (this is not personal so don't start yelling)

For me noone knows what's going to happen, people only guess. Its therefore best to dismiss all forecasts as guesses and say to yourself - markets go up, down and sideways - always prepare for the worst and focus your energy on buying well.

This allows me to be completely impartial to what the masses are doing.

For example - my friend and his wife (FTBers) are just in the process of buying a house in SW London now. With NOONE wanting to buy as so much hysteria out there, I think my friend will buy today at a better price than anyone looking to buy at the end of the downturn.

Your above post forecasts prices to have dropped 25% by the bottom. That, I think, can be achieved easily now if you find the right seller. I'm not advocating everyone to go and buy - just wanted to add a different point of view.

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HOLA4418
Put yourself in my shoes: I am actually visible. Perhaps the only poster who is NOT anonymous. .../

Hey FP! Keep on truckin' mate -- keep up the EXCELLENT work - Someone PREPARED to stand tall and tell it as it is........ All good luck to you mate!

One thing, FP: -- Some may think I am obsessed about Liar Loans/Mortgage Fraud - and they'd be right. So what?! :P:D

Anyway -- What is your line on Liar Loans? What do you think should be done to stop them?

PLUS -- The MOST IMPORTANT thing to remember about Liar Loans, imo, is that THEY SKEW THE MARKET "PRICE" upwards - EVEN IF ONLY SOME PEOPLE USE THEM:

i.e. Wherever a Liar Loan is taken out to make a purchase - be it a village, a street, a town, a city etc. -- IT HAS A PROFOUND EFFECT ON THE LOCAL MARKET --

BECAUSE - AS THE EAs USE LOCAL PRICES RECENTLY PAID FOR PROPERTIES AS A COMPARISON WHEN THEY RE-SET ALL THE LOCAL PRICES -- AND -- WHEN Mr Lying-Cheat comes along to ANY given locality and USES his DISHONESTLY OBTAINED [Liar] Loan -- and pays OVER THE ODDS FOR THAT PROPERTY. THEN - OVERNIGHT -- THAT "PRICE" HE PAYS BECOMES THE NORM -- AND EVERYONE ELSE HAS TO MATCH THIS PRICE TO BUY LOCALLY AND FURTHER AFAR!.........

THIS IS THE SECRET WEAPON THE HYPERS, FRAUDSTERS AND VI's HAVE BEEN USING FOR THE LAST 7-9 YEARS+..........

THIS IS ONE HUGE REASON FOR MASSIVE HYPES IN HOUSE "PRICES"..............

I admit it is not the ONLY reason for HPI -- but it is a VERY MAJOR DRIVER of HPI........... No?

Your views FP? Would you be prepared to try and get a discussion about this on air?

If anyone has watched this --- http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=...75&hl=en-GB

and this -- http://video.news.sky.com/skynews/video/?&...270508_0900.flv

AND WOW!!!!!!! THE IMPLICATIONS ARE SEISMIC!!!!!!!! WHY IS THIS STILL GOING ON!?!?!?

Edited by eric pebble
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HOLA4419
Hey FP! Keep on truckin' mate -- keep up the EXCELLENT work - Someone PREPARED to stand tall and tell it as it is........ All good luck to you mate!

One thing, FP: -- Some may think I am obsessed about Liar Loans/Mortgage Fraud - and they'd be right. So what?! :P:D

Anyway -- What is your line on Liar Loans? What do you think should be done to stop them?

PLUS -- The MOST IMPORTANT thing to remember about Liar Loans, imo, is that THEY SKEW THE MARKET "PRICE" upwards - EVEN IF ONLY SOME PEOPLE USE THEM:

i.e. Wherever a Liar Loan is taken out to make a purchase - be it a village, a street, a town, a city etc. -- IT HAS A PROFOUND EFFECT ON THE LOCAL MARKET --

BECAUSE - AS THE EAs USE LOCAL PRICES RECENTLY PAID FOR PROPERTIES AS A COMPARISON WHEN THEY RE-SET ALL THE LOCAL PRICES -- AND -- WHEN Mr Lying-Cheat comes along to ANY given locality and USES his DISHONESTLY OBTAINED [Liar] Loan -- and pays OVER THE ODDS FOR THAT PROPERTY. THEN - OVERNIGHT -- THAT "PRICE" HE PAYS BECOMES THE NORM -- AND EVERYONE ELSE HAS TO MATCH THIS PRICE TO BUY LOCALLY AND FURTHER AFAR!.........

THIS IS THE SECRET WEAPON THE HYPERS, FRAUDSTERS AND VI's HAVE BEEN USING FOR THE LAST 7-9 YEARS+..........

THIS IS ONE HUGE REASON FOR MASSIVE HYPES IN HOUSE "PRICES"..............

I admit it is not the ONLY reason for HPI -- but it is a VERY MAJOR DRIVER of HPI........... No?

Your views FP? Would you be prepared to try and get a discussion about this on air?

If anyone has watched this --- http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=...75&hl=en-GB

and this -- http://video.news.sky.com/skynews/video/?&...270508_0900.flv

AND WOW!!!!!!! THE IMPLICATIONS ARE SEISMIC!!!!!!!! WHY IS THIS STILL GOING ON!?!?!?

So...what are you saying Eric??? :lol:

P.S. I have 'borrowed' Muttley, too precious to be left lurking on our HD...hope that you don't mind.

Edited by greysquirrel
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HOLA4420
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HOLA4421
With NOONE wanting to buy as so much hysteria out there, I think my friend will buy today at a better price than anyone looking to buy at the end of the downturn.

Who is Noone and why is s/he so keen to buy? :unsure:

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HOLA4422

Just read this entire thread. What is it with Brits, success and beaches? I live by a lovely beach and I'm property poor. You don't need to be a success in property gambling to go to one. Success should not be measured by how often you go to the beach. Once you get there and have a swim etc, it gets boring, anyway.

HT. You spoiled it by bragging about being able to use your sexuality to get attention. I think you lost it there.

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HOLA4423
If anyone is at all interested in feeding back on the recent broadcasts - See S WHitely top of page 2 - I for one would be glad of it.

Generally found the programmes very interesting, especially the second programme. Internet forums have their use but having 'real' people talking about their financial circumstances offers a better snapshot of what people are thinking and doing within the economy.

I found the views of the two property bulls at the start of the second programme rather curious. The first caller was fully paid up so really had no worries and was looking at pure profit from the rent. The second caller pointed out that in some areas prices are still rising and that its wrong to claim blanket falls everywhere. Both these callers appear reasonably informed and so what surprised me was how logically weak these protests were. Caller no. 1 must know that he is not typical and caller no. 2 must know that his rationale was a little like protesting that as there where many instances of Europeans leading happy lives between 1939 and 1945 its wrong to make a blanket comment that these years were a disaster for Europeans

So really this must be a clash of sentiment, not logic. You take a clear and uncompromising bear position on property - this must 'feel' wrong to somebody who's financial future is now secure as a result of investing in property, and must be annoying to somebody who sees opportunities in the property market much as somebody who sees opportunities in the financial markets. Further to this, while I think the row over your personal circumstances is of interest, I think this stems from the same sentimental refusal to look at the bigger picture.

This leads on to the rather vexed question of whether people like you are helping talk down the market. Personally I agree with much of what you say and applaud your clarity and informed logic. Further to this I also think falling house-prices, however painful, will help repair the distortions in the economy and will in the long run be better for the general population. But saying the market will fall 35% IS talking down the market however honest an opinion it is (this is also how it worked on the way up). People will certainly try to shoot the messenger - but your dilemma is that not only is this understandable but might also be justified.

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HOLA4424
Generally found the programmes very interesting, especially the second programme. Internet forums have their use but having 'real' people talking about their financial circumstances offers a better snapshot of what people are thinking and doing within the economy.

I found the views of the two property bulls at the start of the second programme rather curious. The first caller was fully paid up so really had no worries and was looking at pure profit from the rent. The second caller pointed out that in some areas prices are still rising and that its wrong to claim blanket falls everywhere. Both these callers appear reasonably informed and so what surprised me was how logically weak these protests were. Caller no. 1 must know that he is not typical and caller no. 2 must know that his rationale was a little like protesting that as there where many instances of Europeans leading happy lives between 1939 and 1945 its wrong to make a blanket comment that these years were a disaster for Europeans

So really this must be a clash of sentiment, not logic. You take a clear and uncompromising bear position on property - this must 'feel' wrong to somebody who's financial future is now secure as a result of investing in property, and must be annoying to somebody who sees opportunities in the property market much as somebody who sees opportunities in the financial markets. Further to this, while I think the row over your personal circumstances is of interest, I think this stems from the same sentimental refusal to look at the bigger picture.

This leads on to the rather vexed question of whether people like you are helping talk down the market. Personally I agree with much of what you say and applaud your clarity and informed logic. Further to this I also think falling house-prices, however painful, will help repair the distortions in the economy and will in the long run be better for the general population. But saying the market will fall 35% IS talking down the market however honest an opinion it is (this is also how it worked on the way up). People will certainly try to shoot the messenger - but your dilemma is that not only is this understandable but might also be justified.

Great post pig, says it all IMO.

BTW...do you have a degree in diplomacy? :P

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HOLA4425
Thanks for posting back. I disagree with all of the above in the same way I disagreed with all bullish viewpoints in the last 3 years 2005- 2008. I heard rents would only rise, interest rates would stay low, houses will always go up etc, etc. I placed no credibility on their statements and I place no credibility on your forecasts. (this is not personal so don't start yelling)

For me noone knows what's going to happen, people only guess. Its therefore best to dismiss all forecasts as guesses and say to yourself - markets go up, down and sideways - always prepare for the worst and focus your energy on buying well.

This allows me to be completely impartial to what the masses are doing.

For example - my friend and his wife (FTBers) are just in the process of buying a house in SW London now. With NOONE wanting to buy as so much hysteria out there, I think my friend will buy today at a better price than anyone looking to buy at the end of the downturn.

Your above post forecasts prices to have dropped 25% by the bottom. That, I think, can be achieved easily now if you find the right seller. I'm not advocating everyone to go and buy - just wanted to add a different point of view.

I had to reply to this topic and in partiqular the reference to knowing what and where the market will go.

Firstly I think it is fair to say that the economy will dictate if the current rate of 1-2% falls will continue, after years of low inflation and interest rates the world is now getting rising rates and low economic growth, ie the exact opposite. If we go into recesion which the governer of the BofE expects, then unemployment will rise. If then we get a Tory govt then they will cut expendature and so millions of pointless jobs in the public sector will go as well. These events are fairly certain to happen and will probably see house prices fall back into line of 3-4 times earnings (may be lower but we won't go there). These events and the continued fall of between 1-2% falls a month for 18 months will bring many recent buyers seriously out of pocket, this winter will be fairly dreadful for the housing market and everybody in the industry knows it. My brother is a builder struggling to find work and does not expect to get much if anything over the next 6 months and he is usually right.

HT, we don't know what you paid for your properties but I am fairly sure you could not make a profit if you sold today? Am I right?

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