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  2. Heating went on tonight

    We're in a 70s mid terrace so I resist the hearing as long as possible, hoping our neighbours will cave first and warm us up too. Also we have ceiling heating with no timers (you turn each room on and off manually). Apart from being a hassle if you leave it on in error it costs a fortune.
  3. Today
  4. Swedish housing boom now over

    Sweden is an awful place to live. Thats why so many have colonised Thailand. Most Swedish women wear bitch shields too and many are overweight.
  5. Land registry UP again 0.4%

    It's likely to be an aggregation of triggers. Transactions are low because people have been taught to pay the mortgage at all costs. You'll need to pry that house from their cold dead hands. Forced sellers will bring on the crash. So we are looking at: Interest rate rises pushing the overextended into trouble. People exiting BTL due to s24, an excess of rentals available, etc Ending IO mortgages without a repayment plan. Movers for work or downsizing (but only if absolutely necessary) Death (but many inheritors will probably let it out, innit) And this will all require FTBs to not buy at ridiculous prices or else the ponzi continues. The priced out generation(s) need to remain priced out. That will take less access to easy debt, probably linked to the end of the Term Funding Scheme, QE and if it ever happens Basel III. It's coming together, and I think interest rates would have the sharpest effect, thus why the govt is keeping them down. But it's still too slow to help out so many people waiting so long now.
  6. London House prices are being battered !!!

    Grand Larceny.... but while those who govern paint such an eloquent illusion to maintain the perception off all is well... keep the economic engines purring, keep the lemmings spending.... 😁
  7. Land registry UP again 0.4%

    Availability of consumer leverage, and because it's a consumer fad. I'm not sure that adds to the argument really, you're essentially arguing that housing isn't technically in a bubble, and I think that might be true. On the other hand, the more expensive housing becomes, the smaller the trigger needs to be. It's like an avalanche, and the specific trigger may only be obvious in hindsight. Could an interest rate rise trigger a wave of landlord selling? Could that lead to bankruptcies? A recession? Maybe. The prime-minister has just personally committed to ending the housing crisis. If that was a credible commitment, it would be a sufficient trigger.
  8. ^ Feeling of unease at having given an opinion on shares. I say again, I'm not a shares guy. Do your own research, or look for advice from someone better qualified. I'm speaking as someone who's worked in the sector, not as someone who trades shares.
  9. I'm not a shares guy, but I can speak from working in the sector - for one of the, then, top 5. It's not the long run you need to worry about. Suspect the sector will be decimated long before the social housing contracts, as private housebuilding falls off a cliff. Those that survive may have a hard job making money in an inflationary environment. They make a point of not owning any plant, machinery, or assets apart from building sites - in order to pack up whenever there's a downturn. This lack of asset base leaves them with considerable costs, susceptible to inflationary rises. I also think there's no guarantee the social housing will be traditionally built - i.e. no certainty the housebuilders will get the work. Prefabs, concrete high-rises, and even 3d printing are possibilities. If you're looking for shares to profit from housebuilding - I'd look into the plant-hire companies - see who's owning the assets that will be used for the building, and check what debts they've got against them.
  10. Please enlighten us. No sarcasm intended. I for one am interested in what you mean.
  11. Javid on Sky News right now

    No, because now you're talking about potential solutions to the problem rather than causes of the problem. If we had 'enough' houses in the right places then we wouldn't have a housing crisis simply because that's the definition of enough. So the argument is circular. We went from having enough houses to not having enough because landlording pushed up the cost, not because of any fundamental need for more homes. So it's the landlording that is the problem. Moreover, it's not obvious that we can, in practice, build enough in the right places to cope with the demand from landlords and the demand for homes. Whereas it is quite obvious that building is expensive and slow. And that is why the myth persists. Its a way of deflecting blame, and maintaining the status quo, because the housing crisis is extremely profitable. If building is the only solution, then the housing crisis essentially cannot be solved, not for years anyway, but maybe, in an era of weak government and austerity, not at all.
  12. Why do you think you deserved a four bed house for three kids? Could none of you share?
  13. People still blind to what is actually going on. I have ordered extra popcorn for next weekend.
  14. I've been driving through Europe for several months in my campervan, and not only are parking charges extremely rare, but often they provide spaces for motorhomes with free services for water and waste. I've even had free electricity on several locations in France, right in the centre of towns. It's amazing, you can go to a remote beach on the Spanish coastline and the carpark has a great big green bin for everyone to use, everytime. It's also owned by the municipality, not some National Trust type organisation, and it's for the people to use and enjoy and not for profit. The UK is such a corrupt shithole in comparison. Pay for the car parks, signs saying NO OVERNIGHT etc. Over here you're allowed to park up. I've just spent 4 nights parked up next to a beach outside a campsite and never bothered. A few cafes around for me to frequent so my money went on helping businesses, not pushing pound coins into some parking meter (I did use the campsite for 1 night too so not to take the piss too much, owned by the municipality, cost me £7 with hookup, UK over double that everywhere).
  15. Javid on Sky News right now

    Well yes and no. I agree with what you said, but I don't see how it relates to what I said. I think the point is this: the land market is different to other markets, because land is fixed, and it is inherently redistributive. So it's perfectly legitimate to question how land should be distributed. That doesn't meant I think that the answer is a radical redistribution. It just means we should be honest about how things really are when we're discussing what to do about it. So, for example, baby boomers have no more inherent right to remain in Zone 2 than anyone else has to move there. These conflicting claims need to be balanced against each other, pragmatically.
  16. Javid on Sky News right now

    It's actually about how the declining Japanese population is changing social attitudes to property. There are challenges but there are opportunities too.
  17. Agreed. The issue is how to play them given most instruments are derivative based. I appreciate some of the danger having lost on my commodity holdings when AIG went under. I was not keen on the idea but am coming around to the idea of investing in the producers as proxies.
  18. I really think what's coming needs one to go back to first principles and challenge every assumption and convention I've rolled right back to even assets and asset classes before even thinking of conventional asset classes and appropriate asset allocations. I include a hard asset class outside of the system. I also think of skills, training, networks, equipment and the like. I have invested accordingly. No, no survivalist with a place in the woods. It's the next step up from the idea that most of the money can be made getting the sectors right rather than the specific stocks. There's a balance between precision and the big picture, the really big picture. It started with house prices and went from there! Application of the "so what" process, something that has saved many a life.
  19. 17bn deficit in academia pension fund

    Academics in the USS get 1/75 for each year of service so it is effectively a half salary DB pension (50%) after 37 years of contributions . https://www.uss.co.uk/members/members-home/the-uss-scheme There is a Defined Contribution top up as well available. Before 2016 it was a pure DB scheme with an accrual rate of 1/80 for each qualifying year of service.
  20. The idea that Thatcher is the archetypal Conservative is ahistorical, and incorrect (except perhaps in the context of US politics). Neoliberalism is in conflict with conservatism just as much as it is in conflict with socialism. Why I am not a Conservative This was recognised at the time. When Thatcher took over the Tory party, it was as much a revolution for them as Blair was for Labour. Trumps protectionism, or the debate over immigration, are clear examples of Conservative ideals that are incompatible with liberal ideas on free trade. Conservatives are explicitly asking for the government to impose restrictions on people (tariffs or borders) in order to conserve traditional arrangements or institutions.
  21. Javid on Sky News right now

    Untestable hypothesis? Hardly. Reduce the immigration numbers to 'a few tens of thousands' per year, build a million new houses (preferrably in the public sector) then count the number of 20-34 yr olds still living with their parents. What's that you say? A million fewer than in 2017. Colour me unsurprised.
  22. So is she going to become a brickie then?
  23. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    Honestly, I don't know. Something more than currency or asset. Transaction, transfer, clearing for multi-asset or currency claims. Infrastructure not money. I'm not fundamentally interested in another scheme to enrich individuals, rather than means of empowering the public to bypass or challenge authority/rentseeker interests. I'm not bothered by the Bitcoin as digital gold angle. Only insofar as it may slow other developments, or when the narrative starts to use youth-interest as a smokescreen for own wealth accumulation interets.
  24. +100 million. None of those things could ever be described as natural. Whether you think they are minimal really depends upon whether you're on the receiving end of them.
  25. Yesterday
  26. Have to agree. Nor can they. There's a name for it (forgotten) that keeps your brain confined more or less to the current state. I fight this daily. Happens in the military too where they try to teach you techniques not to freeze (eg. In an ambush, terror event, etc). Been there. Watched one guy (leader) freeze smiling while our boat sank and others panicked and did the most stupid of things.
  27. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    I see the transactional and clearing utility as being potentially transformative. Otherwise I think money should be a free market subject to forces of the real economy, not associated to any particular asset or interest group or favouring pre-determined monetary/price inflation or deflation.
  28. The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

    Maybe I am misinterpreting, but I do understand your idealogical point of view. I don't personally believe that Bitcoin will meet the needs of a currency replacement, probably Dash or Ripple will, but I feel there will be multiple steps along the way to achieve the end goal of full crypto. What is your ideal end result, and are you willing to propose intermediate steps that achieve that? I'm in general agreement with this, and as I am personally saving at least some in crypto, it made sense to put the bulk in a deflationary asset like Bitcoin when measured in inflationary pounds Sterling. It hasn't proved me wrong so far.
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