Killer Bunny

B B C Newsnight Scotland

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High level discussion on PBR incl HPC and Kelvin MAcKenzie - should be fun (oh and Baroness 'Yah' and boring civil servant-type)

Unfortunately, only available north of the border

Can anyone in the Fatherland digitally record and put on site? Edited by F.P.

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YAWN

I suppose the Scottish Mafia will be getting together to blame everyone else - even though whenever one of these idiots tells how to run our finances they all seem to have a Scottich accent and they all seem to get it so very very wrong. Edited by gravity always wins

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It will be on the iPlayer by the following morning. No need to record. Wonder who Baroness Yah is.


[quote name='Financial Planner' post='1479664' date='Nov 24 2008, 01:00 PM']High level discussion on PBR incl HPC and Kelvin MAcKenzie - should be fun (oh and Baroness 'Yah' and boring civil servant-type)

Unfortunately, only available north of the border

Can anyone in the Fatherland digitally record and put on site?[/quote]

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[quote name='waitingscot' post='1479786' date='Nov 24 2008, 01:58 PM']It will be on the iPlayer by the following morning. No need to record. Wonder who Baroness Yah is.[/quote]

Baroness Scotland?

(a real person BTW)

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Nice work FP. Will be watching tonight.

One thing that always gets overlooked re. Scottish house prices.

They always say our prices have not risen as much as everywhere else - so we won't get as big a fall. They always fail to point out that prices in Edinburgh, Aberdeen and parts of Glasgow have had 'Londonesque' rises over the past 5 years. Fair enough somewhere like Fife may not have huge falls but IMO Edinburgh will.

This weeks Ernst and Young report thinks prices here in Scotland will only fall by 19%.

[url="http://news.scotsman.com/scotlandseconomy/Bleak-forecast-for-Scotland-puts.4722134.jp"]Ernst & Young[/url]

As for Edinburgh - According to the ESPC prices have fallen from their peak of 228k to 192k just now.

[b]228k[/b]

[url="http://www.espc.co.uk/UniversalPages/2007-Q2.html"]ESPC Stats 228k[/url]

[b]192k[/b]

[url="http://www.espc.co.uk/EspcPageMedia/MarketReviewOct08/2008-10ESPCReview.pdf"]ESPC stats - 192k[/url]

[b]So we have had a drop of ~16% so far and it has barely even begun[/b]. Would be great if you could point out how detached Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen are from the rest of Scotland when it comes to affordability etc..

Last years £228k average sales price in Edinburgh worked out at about 8-9 times average salary !!

Quite insane and must be up there with some of the most overpriced areas down South.

50% falls in Edinburgh are almost guaranteed IMO. Of course the massive reliance on the Financial Sector is not going to help matters...

Anyway good luck.

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[quote name='twatmangle' post='1479840' date='Nov 24 2008, 02:25 PM']Baroness Scotland?[/quote]

The noble baroness seems to have had too much Scottish sunshine. It's gone to her head.

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[quote name='ccc' post='1479900' date='Nov 24 2008, 03:06 PM']Nice work FP. Will be watching tonight.

One thing that always gets overlooked re. Scottish house prices.

They always say our prices have not risen as much as everywhere else - so we won't get as big a fall. They always fail to point out that prices in Edinburgh, Aberdeen and parts of Glasgow have had 'Londonesque' rises over the past 5 years. Fair enough somewhere like Fife may not have huge falls but IMO Edinburgh will.

This weeks Ernst and Young report thinks prices here in Scotland will only fall by 19%.[/quote]
Brilliant support. Many thanks

Its Baroness Margaret Ford and a bloke called Robert Crawford.

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[quote name='waitingscot' post='1479786' date='Nov 24 2008, 01:58 PM']It will be on the iPlayer by the following morning. No need to record. Wonder who Baroness Yah is.[/quote]
Last time it was on i player within an hour.

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Scottish house prices will only ever go up; global warming will ensure that in 20 year's time Scotland's climate will be similar to Singapore's is now. 31 degrees every day.

There will be armed border patrols to stop people trying to enter from across the Great English Desert.

Anyway, best of luck on the show. Newsnight is a good gig, even if it's the Scottish version. Edited by Paddles

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House prices have more than doubled in Inverclyde since 2002. Flats that could be bought for £47,000 sold this year for over £95,000.

You have to remember that wages are much lower in most of Scotland. Outside Edinburgh, Aberdeen and East Rebfrewshire we are quite poor in fact.



[quote name='ccc' post='1479900' date='Nov 24 2008, 03:06 PM']Nice work FP. Will be watching tonight.

One thing that always gets overlooked re. Scottish house prices.

They always say our prices have not risen as much as everywhere else - so we won't get as big a fall. They always fail to point out that prices in Edinburgh, Aberdeen and parts of Glasgow have had 'Londonesque' rises over the past 5 years. Fair enough somewhere like Fife may not have huge falls but IMO Edinburgh will.

This weeks Ernst and Young report thinks prices here in Scotland will only fall by 19%.

[url="http://news.scotsman.com/scotlandseconomy/Bleak-forecast-for-Scotland-puts.4722134.jp"]Ernst & Young[/url]

As for Edinburgh - According to the ESPC prices have fallen from their peak of 228k to 192k just now.

[b]228k[/b]

[url="http://www.espc.co.uk/UniversalPages/2007-Q2.html"]ESPC Stats 228k[/url]

[b]192k[/b]

[url="http://www.espc.co.uk/EspcPageMedia/MarketReviewOct08/2008-10ESPCReview.pdf"]ESPC stats - 192k[/url]

[b]So we have had a drop of ~16% so far and it has barely even begun[/b]. Would be great if you could point out how detached Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen are from the rest of Scotland when it comes to affordability etc..

Last years £228k average sales price in Edinburgh worked out at about 8-9 times average salary !!

Quite insane and must be up there with some of the most overpriced areas down South.

50% falls in Edinburgh are almost guaranteed IMO. Of course the massive reliance on the Financial Sector is not going to help matters...

Anyway good luck.[/quote]

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Mention that as the Scottish Home Packs which will be introduced on Dec 1st have a survey and valuation, it will put an end to the ridiculous "offers over" system so prices will plunge.

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[quote name='Redhat Sly' post='1480529' date='Nov 24 2008, 06:59 PM']Mention that as the Scottish Home Packs which will be introduced on Dec 1st have a survey and valuation, it will put an end to the ridiculous "offers over" system so prices will plunge.[/quote]

That would be good, but do you think it will really be the case?
A house doesn't have to be sold at the valuation price afterall.

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I think it will definitely have an impact.

In the past to avoid having surveys done on every house they attempted to buy people put offers in and then had their valuation done. The valuation could be lower than expected but they had gone that far so carried on with the purchase. Don't forget silly mortgages were available then. Now buyers will know the value BEFORE they make an offer and if lending criteria is stricter who in their right mind will be offering over the asking price?

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[quote name='Redhat Sly' post='1480598' date='Nov 24 2008, 07:33 PM']I think it will definitely have an impact.

In the past to avoid having surveys done on every house they attempted to buy people put offers in and then had their valuation done. The valuation could be lower than expected but they had gone that far so carried on with the purchase. Don't forget silly mortgages were available then. Now buyers will know the value BEFORE they make an offer and if lending criteria is stricter who in their right mind will be offering over the asking price?[/quote]

"who in their right mind ... "

Someone who REALLY wants a particular property, and who REALLY wants to outbid everyone else.

Unlikely to happen with a plain vanilla Bellway, David Wilson, or Redrow new- or recent-build, or an ex-council house that was bought 3 or 5 years ago, but for a distinctive, unique property, there's every possibility of competing interest bidding way over the Home Report valuation, isn't there?

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[quote name='Financial Planner' post='1480335' date='Nov 24 2008, 05:21 PM']Brilliant support. Many thanks

Its Baroness Margaret Ford and a bloke called Robert Crawford.[/quote]

Good work FP and CCC. There is plently of ammunition on the Scottish sub forum. These other idiots will wind you up FP with their ignorance and insistance that Edinburgh/Scotland in unique with little to back it up (keep your cool ;) ). Please point out as CCC has shown, how property skyrocketed in late 2007 and boomed just as hard, if a little later than the rest of the UK.

Simply pointing out Edinburgh's massive reliance on the farsical finance sector should be enough to convince everyone watching that we are tanking and will tank for the next few years. Of course this will be a general discussion on Scotland but surely the main cities will be in focus.

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I was going to post something mildy funny about half of the Scottish living in Westminster but I was interupted by my mum phoning to tell me she recorded I.O.U.S.A earlier. Good old mum.

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[quote name='gravity always wins' post='1479686' date='Nov 24 2008, 01:07 PM']YAWN

I suppose the Scottish Mafia will be getting together to blame everyone else - even though whenever one of these idiots tells how to run our finances they all seem to have a Scottich accent and they all seem to get it so very very wrong.[/quote]

Did I just hear a Pavlovian bell ringing?

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I know I am biased but FP looked clearly like he knew what he was talking about.

As for the Baroness.... :o

Angry, agitated and scared just about cover it IMO.

Nice comment about the [i]'Nice economic argument there'.[/i]..

You 'run' a site called housepricecrash so you are a pessimist. :blink:

Typical Labour thinking. Do these people not realise that many of their own voters WOULD LOVE HOUSE PRICES TO COME DOWN.

So ignorant it is incredible. OMG. She just said the housing market in Scotland is holding up !!

Delusion. :rolleyes:

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[quote name='ccc' post='1481043' date='Nov 24 2008, 11:33 PM']I know I am biased but FP looked clearly like he knew what he was talking about.

As for the Baroness.... :o

Angry, agitated and scared just about cover it IMO.

Nice comment about the [i]'Nice economic argument there'.[/i]..

You 'run' a site called housepricecrash so you are a pessimist. :blink:

Typical Labour thinking. Do these people not realise that many of their own voters WOULD LOVE HOUSE PRICES TO COME DOWN.

So ignorant it is incredible. OMG. She just said the housing market in Scotland is holding up !!

Delusion. :rolleyes:[/quote]

I really enjoyed that. Gave me a nice warm feeling. :)

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A good show ...you didn't dive in like a rabid dog unlike the privileged bank spiv....slowly slowly catch the monkey.

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[quote name='ccc' post='1481043' date='Nov 24 2008, 11:33 PM']I know I am biased but FP looked clearly like he knew what he was talking about.

As for the Baroness.... :o

Angry, agitated and scared just about cover it IMO.

Nice comment about the [i]'Nice economic argument there'.[/i]..

You 'run' a site called housepricecrash so you are a pessimist. :blink:

Typical Labour thinking. Do these people not realise that many of their own voters WOULD LOVE HOUSE PRICES TO COME DOWN.

So ignorant it is incredible. OMG. She just said the housing market in Scotland is holding up !!

Delusion. :rolleyes:[/quote]


FP replied and said the buy to let sector has crashed and doesnt exist any more.

Transaction levels are virtually nothing.

Banks arent lending.

Prices will drop a further 30-40% in Scotland.

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FP,

Excellent job. You demolished that silly Margot McDonaldTorylookalikewumman when you asked how a VAT reduction to 15% would help people facing repossessions.

An excellent job all round, by FP that is. Not just on the houseprice thing, but on basic economics.

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Just saw this; quite a heated debate, eh ;)

The Baroness was spouting rubbish! It's 'optimism' like her's that can lead us into this mess! I don't think I've ever seen such a vile woman, interrupting at every point! She obviously knew who you were and it was clear at two points that she was trying to discredit you. Firstly, when she said that surely you are a chartered financial planner and that you could see things were SERIOUS. Oh yes, if you don't say things are SERIOUS like I do, you are worth nothing! And secondly calling you a pessimist when referring to this website.

I'm sure the 'Baroness' has some sort of property interest ;)

LOVED the comment on how prices may be holding up for now, but there are no sellers, hence 30-40% price drops to come in Scotland! The guy next to you was on the ball, also. Hammered home the 'raised taxes for years to come' and that it was our money, not the governments. The baroness seemed to go wild-eyed at this!

I also agree with the package today being more about electioneering rather than economic recovery.

Well done!!

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