Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Killer Bunny

Stephen Nolan T V On B B C Ulster

105 posts in this topic

[quote name='Swipe' post='1450020' date='Nov 10 2008, 10:00 PM']The estate agent thinks it's the bottom? :lol: :lol: :lol:[/quote]

If he's anything like our EA's in Farnham, then he both thinks - [b][i]and talks[/i][/b] - OUT of his bottom!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

B

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The only good thing to come out that show was me finding this website :rolleyes:

It was a ridiculous show but no less than I would have expected. No discussion of solid evidence, just biased anecdotes from an estate agent with a vested interest in rising prices. I mean, are they really that ill informed? I'm a hopeful first time buyer and I've been able to find out about things like the affordability indices and first time buyer earnings to house value ratios with minimal internet research. They must know about this stuff, are they really just trying squeeze a few extra sales in a tough climate? Do they think they can influence the influence the market with this crap? The rest of the mainstream media are the same in NI. I was listening to a news show on BBC Radio Ulster about a week ago and they had a property developer on (from Hagan Homes I think) saying that he thought prices would rise in the new year because "I have had lots of enquiries from first time buyers who are a bit apprehensive at the minute and will have deposits ready to act in the new year" Really? This made the news! No mention of affordability for first time buyers or discussion on the wider economy.

Anyway, glad I found this site, lots of interesting info. I'm a first time buyer and am looking for advice/discussion on Northern Ireland, where's the best place to ask? I have a deposit and obviously want to go for max value. I was thinking of buying once the FTB_HPER (first time buyer house price to earnings ratio) gets to about 4 and/or when the affordability index gets to about 100. Does this sound reasonable? According to the nationwide website, the FTB_HPER is currently 5.3 with an affordability index of 158.8 and an average price of £160K. Edited by Reraise

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Reraise' post='1450226' date='Nov 10 2008, 11:26 PM']The only good thing to come out that show was me finding this website :rolleyes:

It was a ridiculous show but no less than I would have expected. No discussion of solid evidence, just biased anecdotes from an estate agent with a vested interest in rising prices. I mean, are they really that ill informed? I'm a hopeful first time buyer and I've been able to find out about things like the affordability indices and first time buyer earnings to house value ratios with minimal internet research. They must know about this stuff, are they really just trying squeeze a few extra sales in a tough climate? Do they think they can influence the influence the market with this crap? The rest of the mainstream media are the same in NI. I was listening to a news show on BBC Radio Ulster about a week ago and they had a property developer on (from Hagan Homes I think) saying that he thought prices would rise in the new year because "I have had lots of enquiries from first time buyers who are a bit apprehensive at the minute and will have deposits ready to act in the new year" Really? This made the news! No mention of affordability for first time buyers or discussion on the wider economy.

Anyway, glad I found this site, lots of interesting info. I'm a first time buyer and am looking for advice/discussion on Northern Ireland, where's the best place to ask? I have a deposit and obviously want to go for max value. I was thinking of buying once the FTB_HPER (first time buyer house price to earnings ratio) gets to about 4 and/or when the affordability index gets to about 100. Does this sound reasonable? According to the nationwide website, the FTB_HPER is currently 5.3 with an affordability index of 158.8 and an average price of £160K.[/quote]

Excellent news ! Welcome to the team !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Harry Monk' post='1450236' date='Nov 10 2008, 11:29 PM']Can this programme be posted on the HPC server sometime?[/quote]

I'm pretty sure it will go up but might not be for a few days.


Well, some incredible examples of stupidity. Loved the cretin who phoned in to slag FP off for daring to drag the Northern Ireland house market down with his talk of futher falls :lol:

Also, the EA guy they had on was a complete idiot. Kept insisting that the market had bottomed out (30% down on the year and dropping like a stone) even though all anecdotal evidence was that houses were stil stupidly overpriced and nothing was shifting. Why no-one took him up on it is beyond me - I thought FP would have ripped him a new one.

Of course, the fact that the presenter is a multiple BTL owning prat with zero charm probably didn't help. The dicussion just meanered all over the place with no real direction, a bit of a disappointment really.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='vicmac64' post='1450031' date='Nov 10 2008, 10:04 PM']Fantastic, FP is the bees knees. A real authority that stands head and tails above the dregs of our financial and banking community.

Well done Jonathan Davis.

My dream team - PM Simon Weston, Chancellor of the exchequer Jonathan Davis, Foreign Secretary Realist Bear.

Heads and tails they would be compared the scum we have in power and those that currently vie for power from the conservative and lib dems.[/quote]

Simon Weston? Not the melted face Falklands hero? Are you going for a McCain sympathy-combined-with-having-once-read an-Andy-McNab-novel thing?

Don't forget John Smeaton as Minister of Defence.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There are 2 threads on this, might as well post in them both.

[quote name='Reraise' post='1450257' date='Nov 10 2008, 11:37 PM']The only good thing to come out that show was me finding this website rolleyes.gif

It was a ridiculous show but no less than I would have expected. No discussion of solid evidence, just biased anecdotes from an estate agent with a vested interest in rising prices. I mean, are they really that ill informed? I'm a hopeful first time buyer and I've been able to find out about things like the affordability indices and first time buyer earnings to house value ratios with minimal internet research. They must know about this stuff, are they really just trying squeeze a few extra sales in a tough climate? Do they think they can influence the influence the market with this crap? The rest of the mainstream media are the same in NI. I was listening to a news show on BBC Radio Ulster about a week ago and they had a property developer on (from Hagan Homes I think) saying that he thought prices would rise in the new year because "I have had lots of enquiries from first time buyers who are a bit apprehensive at the minute and will have deposits ready to act in the new year" Really? This made the news! No mention of affordability for first time buyers or discussion on the wider economy.

Anyway, glad I found this site, lots of interesting info. I'm a first time buyer and am looking for advice/discussion on Northern Ireland, where's the best place to ask? I have a deposit and obviously want to go for max value. I was thinking of buying once the FTB_HPER (first time buyer house price to earnings ratio) gets to about 4 and/or when the affordability index gets to about 100. Does this sound reasonable? According to the nationwide website, the FTB_HPER is currently 5.3 with an affordability index of 158.8 and an average price of £160K.[/quote]

I agree with your points mash. I take it FP=fancy pants= mod of this forum? Anyway, the angry caller was quite funny, "it's a disgrace he's on here saying prices are going to fall, what we need is buyer confidence." lol. Are there any Northern Ireland threads?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Reraise' post='1450278' date='Nov 10 2008, 11:47 PM']There are 2 threads on this, might as well post in them both.



I agree with your points mash. I take it FP=fancy pants= mod of this forum? Anyway, the angry caller was quite funny, "it's a disgrace he's on here saying prices are going to fall, what we need is buyer confidence." lol. Are there any Northern Ireland threads?[/quote]

There's a whole sub-forum and extremely active it is too!

[url="http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showforum=52"]NI House prices subforum[/url]


(FP = Financial Planner, a poster on this site. He was the guy on the show)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[url="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/weekend/stephen-nolan-larger-than-life-13999645.html"]http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/lifestyl...e-13999645.html[/url]


Stephen likes his grub, and his properties...

'I have a few houses in Belfast..they ain't making land any more..'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='the end is nigh' post='1450177' date='Nov 10 2008, 10:58 PM']You could buy France for less than that! And I thought prices here were expensive.[/quote]

OMG thats much more expensive than even nice north London suburbs (which are overpriced too!).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='juvenal' post='1450292' date='Nov 10 2008, 11:54 PM'][url="http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/weekend/stephen-nolan-larger-than-life-13999645.html"]http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/lifestyl...e-13999645.html[/url]


Stephen likes his grub, and his properties...

'I have a few houses in Belfast..they ain't making land any more..'[/quote]

Good find. He has won 12 Sony awards ? WTF is that all about ?

Im sure he bought these properties at near peak because he has only been making big bucks the last two or three years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Reraise' post='1450226' date='Nov 10 2008, 11:26 PM']The only good thing to come out that show was me finding this website :rolleyes:

Anyway, glad I found this site, lots of interesting info. I'm a first time buyer and am looking for advice/discussion on Northern Ireland, where's the best place to ask? I have a deposit and obviously want to go for max value. I was thinking of buying once the FTB_HPER (first time buyer house price to earnings ratio) gets to about 4 and/or when the affordability index gets to about 100. Does this sound reasonable? According to the nationwide website, the FTB_HPER is currently 5.3 with an affordability index of 158.8 and an average price of £160K.[/quote]

Welcome, there's lots of info to be found. See 'House prices in your area' to find a thread, if there ain't one, set one up! The more info that's shared, the better.

As for when to buy, assuming you have no pressing reason to do so, and are happy to wait, I wouldn't worry so much about the numbers. The fact is, (look at HP graph on homepage) the tops of bubbles are spikey, and the bottoms are long and flat(last one was over a year at ~ bottom!). So don't worry about missing the bottom, it'll be obvious that things are going sideways. Also, you'll note that during the last crash there were some months of +ve house price growth some way before the bottom was reached, so be wary about getting in too soon.
Obviously, different areas have different situations, and you'll know your area, so read up a few threads and fill us in on what you know.

Also, look at auction sites/threads on this section to see that were getting to 2002 prices in UK. Threads usually started by 'tommyboy'. There was a Barnard Marcus auction thread today-well worth a look.

PS If you have not used Propertybee before (requires Firefox internet browser to be installed first, I'd recommend it heartily. It displays a history box beside every Rightmove listing showing you price changes and dates):
[url="http://www.property-bee.com/"]http://www.property-bee.com/[/url]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='A.steve' post='1450314' date='Nov 11 2008, 12:02 AM']Hasn't anyone youtubed this yet?[/quote]


I hope so. You can get it on BBC iplayer within 12 hours or something. Someone said that earlier. Can anyone confirm this ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Master Of Puppets' post='1450326' date='Nov 11 2008, 12:13 AM']I hope so. You can get it on BBC iplayer within 12 hours or something. Someone said that earlier. Can anyone confirm this ?[/quote]

usually faster than that- I've watched tonight's panorama already, but perhaps this aint a priority

guess it'll appear here:
[url="http://www.bbc.co.uk/northernireland/tv/programmes/nolan/index.shtml"]http://www.bbc.co.uk/northernireland/tv/pr...lan/index.shtml[/url]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='cheeznbreed' post='1450335' date='Nov 11 2008, 12:17 AM']usually faster than that- I've watched tonight's panorama already, but perhaps this aint a priority

guess it'll appear here:
[url="http://www.bbc.co.uk/northernireland/tv/programmes/nolan/index.shtml"]http://www.bbc.co.uk/northernireland/tv/pr...lan/index.shtml[/url][/quote]

Bingo ! It should be on that link in the morning, if not before. The "debate" was in the last 20mins of the show.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Jonnyargles' post='1450265' date='Nov 10 2008, 11:39 PM']Simon Weston? Not the melted face Falklands hero? Are you going for a McCain sympathy-combined-with-having-once-read an-Andy-McNab-novel thing?[/quote]
Now, now...

I was watching a report by Mr. Weston on the news earlier by coincidence & I was struck by what a plain-talking, decent man he is.

Not a bad choice by the OP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I read the thread title as "Jonathan Davis [b]Kises [/b]Ass Of Estate Agent"

He always did strike me as being a bit camp.

I hope he wasn't distributing his bodily fluids this time?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Mish Mash' post='1450377' date='Nov 11 2008, 12:59 AM']I read the thread title as "Jonathan Davis [b]Kises [/b]Ass Of Estate Agent"

He always did strike me as being a bit camp.

I hope he wasn't [b]distributing his bodily fluids this time[/b]?[/quote]

Eh ? Expand ......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Master Of Puppets' post='1450385' date='Nov 11 2008, 01:09 AM']Eh ? Expand ......[/quote]
Let's not get all that started again. :rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Financial Planner' post='1448844' date='Nov 10 2008, 01:25 PM']Debate on NI housing market between a financial adviser and an EA...[/quote]
Read posts here for quite a few days. Thanks to everybody's brilliant contribution. What I want to say is:
The current “market correction” (just use this term), is inevitable. Only difference is sooner or later, frequently small “corrections” or not frequently but big “corrections”. The reason is quite simple. We can simply use straight lines for illustration

[attachment=11769:P1.jpg]

Based on the above graph, we can draw the following conclusions:

1 The function D(t) representing the difference between the purchase cost and income cannot go up and up without any constraint. Otherwise, value of D, as illustrated in the graph, will go infinitive. This is definitely not possible.

2 “Market correction”---such as current HPC, which means the D value will go down, is not because of consumers’ confidence. Rather, it depends mainly on the affordability of consumers.

3 How many times of the HP to income should be reasonable? We frequently use 3-4 times. However, it is not the case, at least not always. The reason is: The word “Price” used in the above graph should the “total cost” for “daily living” (just imagine: 99% of your income needs to be used for food). My suggestion is: if majority of people can clear mortgage in 10 to 20 years time under the condition without seriously affecting their living standard, the price would be reasonable.

Introduce myself: Know nothing about economics, know little about math, English is not good, rely on personal skills and knowledge to earn a living.

BTW, size of the graph is tiny. One has to click it to view full size. Edited by pcuser

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='acceleratorhams' post='1450089' date='Nov 10 2008, 10:25 PM']Well done FP!

The estate agent only seemed to have one `argument`....`it`s a confidence issue`. His argument had absolutely no foundation and it makes my heart bleed that it will probably entice a few young people to enter the market.

I hope that the show re-convenes in one year`s time to see who was right. There is no question that it will be FP.[/quote]

As a matter of fact, it is NOT a "confidence issue". Rather, it is mostly an affordability of consumers. I put it here again

The current “market correction” (just use this term), is inevitable. Only difference is sooner or later, frequently small “corrections” or not frequently but big “corrections”. The reason is quite simple. We can simply use straight lines for illustration


[attachment=11770:P1.jpg]

Based on the above graph, we can draw the following conclusions:

1 The function D(t) representing the difference between the purchase cost and income cannot go up and up without any constraint. Otherwise, value of D, as illustrated in the graph, will go infinitive. This is definitely not possible.

2 “Market correction”---such as current HPC, which means the D value will go down, is not because of consumers’ confidence. Rather, it depends mainly on the affordability of consumers.

3 How many times of the HP to income should be reasonable? We frequently use 3-4 times. However, it is not the case, at least not always. The reason is: The word “Price” used in the above graph should the “total cost” for “daily living” (just imagine: 99% of your income needs to be used for food). My suggestion is: if majority of people can clear mortgage in 10 to 20 years time under the condition without seriously affecting their living standard, the price would be reasonable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
JD was too optimistic in saying there's another 30% drop due for Norn Iron house prices.
NI still has house prices higher than the Uk average - an absolutely ridiculous situation for the cesspit of the UK. I reckon prices could easily halve over the next 5 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Little Professor' post='1450410' date='Nov 11 2008, 02:06 AM']JD was too optimistic in saying there's another 30% drop due for Norn Iron house prices.
NI still has house prices higher than the Uk average - an absolutely ridiculous situation for the cesspit of the UK. I reckon prices could easily halve over the next 5 years.[/quote]
I dont understand your reasoning ? As JD stated, they are already down 30% (Nationwide figure i think) for the year ! Another couple of years of falling prices could achieve about 60% down from peak i reckon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote name='Little Professor' post='1450410' date='Nov 11 2008, 02:06 AM']the cesspit of the UK[/quote]

I think that's maybe a bit unfair on NI - it has good and bad areas, just like any other part of the UK!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0