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Killer Bunny

Experts Predict How Much Further House Prices Will Fall

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I would have to say that the other four predictions of another 10% are woefully optimistic if not crazy. That would only be another 5/6 months at the current falls, and od they really think we will be out of recession by March? No way, I would imagine March time next year to be deep into the recession, we have years of falls ahead.

Todays Halifax figure (unadjusted) was 2.99% (IIRC). It's therefore only a little over three months at that rate to get another 10% fall.

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No you don't.

Halifax Chief Economist and Merrill Lynch Economist say upto another 10%. Telegraph panel of economists last week say 25% max from peak.

HPC Spokesman says another 35% - Come on boys get real! It is only on this site you'll find bo11ocks like this.. :rolleyes:

Brainless parroting of others' predictions isn't big or clever. This has been one of the few places where people analyse rather than average. Call that bo11ocks if you like!

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:huh: there was a credit crunch programme several months ago the head of chartered surveyors predicted 30% drops, on this programme he said he had underestimated that figure now predicts 50% and that was before shares plunged and bank bailout ,and the recession unemployment etc so would be nice to know what he thinks now ?but the quicker it happens the better as this is the cause of this whole mess so its obvious that it will help to cure the situation prices should drop to 97 prices then add 10% for inflation over the last 10 or so years that is the true value of housing then houses should only rise by the rate of inflation so it doesn't happen again, everybody has a right to shelter , houses are homes not investments or pension plans and yes i own my own property and i will probaly lose out but as long as i can keep a roof over my head who cares

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Can I ask when you changed your original prediction. You did say 35% from peak, but now another 35% so that's at least (given we have already had about 15%) something around 60% in total. What has changed for you to re-assess your prediction? The banking crisis?

No that's not what was meant. HaliWide is c 15% down. Another 35% takes it to 45%. After the banking crisis.

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No that's not what was meant. HaliWide is c 15% down. Another 35% takes it to 45%. After the banking crisis.

Erm, isn't it 55.25% :unsure:

(((100*(1-0.15))*(1-0.35))/100)*100

EDIT: to add as total from peak... 100 is used to simplify math

Edited by Bubble&Squeak

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;) it's not just about now what about in 3-4 years time no more liar loans, no more 5-7 x earnings loans, bigger deposits required, then theres the matter o national debt - taxes will have to go up , bank's have got to repay billions to the govt hello interest rates 10% - ?% as they will want to do this a.s.a.p so they can get back to paying themselves huge bonuses again, if we lose 3 million plus jobs we will be lucky to get back 50% of them it is going to take years to rebuild this countries economy it will never be the same again bye,bye easy credit it will be if you can't afford it you can't have it :huh:

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Erm, isn't it 55.25% :unsure:

(((100*(1-0.15))*(1-0.35))/100)*100

EDIT: to add as total from peak... 100 is used to simplify math

I think its the 15% fall already plus further 35% fall from current level (i.e. 0.35 x 0.85) - the 35% fall from current level would equate to 29.75% at peak prices.

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It's surprising how consistent the other forecasts are. Surely it's a bit retarded to simply subtract from an out of date 25% forecast?

We've yet to see large scale job losses. These will start very soon and will blast apart any hopes of restarting mortgage lending. The widespread despair as a generation experiences mass unemployment for the first time will create panic. 50% from peak will be optimistic in some areas.

I'd also add that China is the big unknown in all this. So much of our benign inflationary environment has been down to them. Now that jobs are being lost in China the wider global effect could be catastrophic.

:ph34r:

Edited by nowthenagain

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;) it's not just about now what about in 3-4 years time no more liar loans, no more 5-7 x earnings loans, bigger deposits required, then theres the matter o national debt - taxes will have to go up , bank's have got to repay billions to the govt hello interest rates 10% - ?% as they will want to do this a.s.a.p so they can get back to paying themselves huge bonuses again, if we lose 3 million plus jobs we will be lucky to get back 50% of them it is going to take years to rebuild this countries economy it will never be the same again bye,bye easy credit it will be if you can't afford it you can't have it :huh:

I think that everything you say is quite correct. However, apart from the bit about taxes having to go up, none of the rest of it is actually going to happen.

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I have equal confidence in the forecasts.

4 years is not too much for a house price crash after 14 or 15 years of rises.

40-50% is not too much when prices were such a multiple of earnings and based on levels of lending which will not be revisted for years or decades.

financial planner - I am curious as to how you arrived at your estimates? saying 4 years it "not too much" is not particularly scientific and seems to lack a coherent argument behind it.

also how do you come to your 40-50% figure? are you saying they will be undervalued by a very large amount by the end of this - thus making it a good idea to buy again?

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financial planner - I am curious as to how you arrived at your estimates? saying 4 years it "not too much" is not particularly scientific and seems to lack a coherent argument behind it.

also how do you come to your 40-50% figure? are you saying they will be undervalued by a very large amount by the end of this - thus making it a good idea to buy again?

NONE of the Phd or academic economists have come up with anythig better even though they've written 10,000 word dissertations on the subject. It could well be longer and 4 years is currently the longest forecast of any.

40-50 - based on everything you should have read here. FAR too much to go over.

Will it be good to buy? Depends on your lifestyle. A £300k for £160k seems not bad for many.

It could eventually go to the Real equivalent of £100. Or it may not. Look at Japan.

We'll know more when we get there.

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Aye, even put in a good word for the most consistent forecaster too.

nice work, FP.

He's been consistently saying they'll go down for years, and accordingly missed out on the best, most amazing boom years.

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He's been consistently saying they'll go down for years, and accordingly missed out on the best, most amazing boom years.

I was cautious since 2004. Convinced since 2005 and saying so in the media since 2006. National since April 2007. Though I would have done it in 06 had I the opportunity.

How many, out of the several MILLIONS who bought since 2004, sold before March 2008?

1%?

2%

Maybe even 5% (though I doubt it)

They'll all be knackered. Those of us with cash however...

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"These comments are a joke. As usual, the have-nots are trying to talk down the market in order to get their grubby hands onto the property lader. SAD."

osted by: Tom | 5 Nov 2008 10:51:50

From the comments, looks like someone entering the fear stage.

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I bought in November 2000 and sold (exchanged) on 5th September 2007, it was purely luck, I was looking to trade up and ended up renting having been outbid (by crazy margins by some crazy BTL maniacs) on three properties.

I'm in Scotland and when people were bidding up to 50% offers over I knew something didn't smell right (estate agents were telling me it was normal!), it wasn't based on reality but a mass delusion. People do not realise how much they are affected by the actions of others. Most follow, few lead.

I must commend FP and others on helping smash the delusion (although many are still in la la land)

Looking at that graph of house prices you see (the Nationwide and Halifax one) I was very very fortunate, one of a tiny minority.

I'm not exactly in a rush to get back in.

I reckon a further 20% falls by the end of 2009, first quarter of 2010 but then I remind myself what happened in Japan.

Conversations with my father (who bought just before the previous crash) are difficult. "Why are you not buying?" he asks. "Oh well dad, I think the mortgage rates will come down further" is what I say. That's what I also told my landlord when I re-negiotated a rental agreement. Don't want to upset anyone do I.

Edited by Perishabull

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I was cautious since 2004. Convinced since 2005 and saying so in the media since 2006. National since April 2007. Though I would have done it in 06 had I the opportunity.

How many, out of the several MILLIONS who bought since 2004, sold before March 2008?

1%?

2%

Maybe even 5% (though I doubt it)

They'll all be knackered. Those of us with cash however...

... still have the talent to lose that too. How are those booming commodities and that gold investment !

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At least none of you STR in late 2002.I did. Now that was bad calling. Theres a long way to go before I make anything out of this. But you have to admit that in 2002 even, prices were insane!

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... still have the talent to lose that too. How are those booming commodities and that gold investment !

Ask again in a few weeks. In long term investing, weeks are immaterial - referring to when I first talked about prec metals.

If you don't ask, I'll ask you.

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