carseller

This Is The Bottom For Stocks

394 posts in this topic

This is not investment advice, do your own research.

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The FTSE-ALL SHARE INDEX

[img]http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nzFNOFmnhUg/UO0LeHrY7-I/AAAAAAAACk0/hKlQRv-yXnE/s1600/ASX.PNG[/img]

If we can clear the red line at the Friday close, I'll stay bullish. But meantime it's time to tighten those stops to lock in any profits.

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[quote name='Catflap' timestamp='1357688838' post='909231856']
This scenario of a low in gold in late April 2013 followed by a low in US equities in early September 2013 (just over 4 months later) would be very similar to what happened last time with gold bottoming in late October 2008 followed by the Dow/S&P etc in early March 2009 (just over 4 months later).

To summerise, the revised forecast is now:

Gold - a final bear market low on April 30, 2013 or May 14, 2013 if that day is a miss.

FTSE/S&P etc - a final bear market low on September 2, 2013

China - a final bear market low between May 21, 2013 and May 30, 2013 (not studied in enough detail)
[/quote]

Gold forecast remains pretty much on track and the May 14, 2013 now looks like the most likely day because of what the dollar has been doing.

Gold in 2013 compared to gold in 2008 – some perspective of what might lie ahead if the pattern repeats.

2007 to 2008 produced an upward slanting H&S pattern in gold and when the neckline was broken, the low came about 2.5 months later in October 2008 which was a great buying opportunity.

[attachment=22076:hpc180213.png]


2010 to 2013 has produced a much larger upward slanting H&S pattern in gold and the neckline has just been broken.

[attachment=22077:hpc180213-2.png]


May 14, 2013 is the target date I worked out a while back based on the January 1975 to August 1976 decline in gold and using some Lindsay techniques as well.

This date is about 3 months after the recent neckline break and it would mean a big decline of about 29% to 30% – sounds unrealistic until you realise that gold corrected 20% in just 3 weeks from September 6, 2011 to September 26, 2011.

Maybe the low comes later than May 14, 2013 – either way gold looks very bearish to me and George Soros has now turned bearish on gold having been bullish.

If there is a short squeeze on the dollar then gold could accelerate to the downside and provide a great buying opportunity in the months ahead for what is probably the final leg in the bull market like August 1976 to January 1980 was.

I can see that my earlier work on the FTSE/S&P/Dow is wrong but that a top should now be in (with new work) and this means that a forecast bear market low lies on September 23, 2013. This ties in better with what I now see the dollar doing from the February 1, 2013 and a move lasting around 7.5 months.

To summerise, the revised forecast is now:

Gold - a final bear market low on May 14, 2013

FTSE/Dow/S&P - a final bear market low on September 23, 2013

China - a final bear market low between May 21, 2013 and May 30, 2013 (not studied in enough detail) Edited by Catflap

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Another 2p from me.

Someone asked me on the main forum - "so you think the stock market will increase in value by 30%", I said I don't see why not. It has already gone up by 10%+ at this point in time. The FTSE-ALL share index is now at 3322pts (9/1/2013 was about 3000pts). It might pull back around here, so once again beware and cautious when climbing the wall of worry.

Gearstick action; I can be in one of three stances; Bullish<->Neutral<->Bearish
I wonder if anyone has the same thought process? In my mind, Like a car you cannot go into reverse until you have stopped from forward gear. You can't be bullish and then suddenly be bearish.

These are my forecasts, valid for the next 3 months (just for fun, and not investment advice).
GOLD$ - Neutral stance, until it closes weekly under $1490/Toz I would be bearish, above $1810/Toz I would be bullish.
GOLD£ - Neutral stance, until it closes weekly under £990/Toz I would be bearish, above £1100/Toz I would be bullish.

FTSE All share - Bullish right now, a close beneath 3200pts, I would tighten stops on individual shares and be neutral on the index. Below 2590pts I would be bearish.

SP500 - Bullish right now, a close beneath 1390pts, I would tighten stops on individual shares and be neutral on the index. Below 1090pts I would be bearish.

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[quote name='Catflap' timestamp='1361234556' post='909262502']
Gold forecast remains pretty much on track and the May 14, 2013 now looks like the most likely day because of what the dollar has been doing.

Gold in 2013 compared to gold in 2008 – some perspective of what might lie ahead if the pattern repeats.

2007 to 2008 produced an upward slanting H&S pattern in gold and when the neckline was broken, the low came about 2.5 months later in October 2008 which was a great buying opportunity.

[attachment=22076:hpc180213.png]


2010 to 2013 has produced a much larger upward slanting H&S pattern in gold and the neckline has just been broken.

[attachment=22077:hpc180213-2.png]


May 14, 2013 is the target date I worked out a while back based on the January 1975 to August 1976 decline in gold and using some Lindsay techniques as well.

This date is about 3 months after the recent neckline break and it would mean a big decline of about 29% to 30% –[b] sounds unrealistic[/b] until you realise that gold corrected 20% in just 3 weeks from September 6, 2011 to September 26, 2011.

Maybe the low comes later than May 14, 2013 – either way gold looks very bearish to me and George Soros has now turned bearish on gold having been bullish.

If there is a short squeeze on the dollar then gold could accelerate to the downside and provide a great buying opportunity in the months ahead for what is probably the final leg in the bull market like August 1976 to January 1980 was.

I can see that my earlier work on the FTSE/S&P/Dow is wrong but that a top should now be in (with new work) and this means that a forecast bear market low lies on September 23, 2013. This ties in better with what I now see the dollar doing from the February 1, 2013 and a move lasting around 7.5 months.

To summerise, the revised forecast is now:

Gold - a final bear market low on May 14, 2013

FTSE/Dow/S&P - a final bear market low on September 23, 2013

China - a final bear market low between May 21, 2013 and May 30, 2013 (not studied in enough detail)
[/quote]

Looks perfectly realistic. I'm sticking with $1000 and $18 as potential downside targets in a panic.

If USD has a violent upside move then miners, HUI,GDX, juniors etc will be completely massacred.

I don't think we're quite yet in a 1986-1987 scenario but we might be soon. 1987 (or flash crash) type set up is coming into view the higher equities move imo.

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Juniors now washed away 60% of capital. Hope nobody was long miners :ph34r:


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=GDXJ,P&listNum=

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[quote name='R K' timestamp='1361271532' post='909262684']
Looks perfectly realistic. I'm sticking with $1000 and $18 as potential downside targets in a panic.

If USD has a violent upside move then miners, HUI,GDX, juniors etc will be completely massacred.

I don't think we're quite yet in a 1986-1987 scenario but we might be soon. 1987 (or flash crash) type set up is coming into view the higher equities move imo.
[/quote]

The move in the dollar has bearly begun and already it's looking nasty - with all the dilution in gold mining stocks it's hard to know what the comparable value is to the 2008 lows. Eg, if gold hits $1000 then HUI/GDX could actually hit 2008 lows again - the most recent high in GDX was slightly lower than the high in the first quarter of 2008 and timewise it does suggest this as possible.

[quote name='R K' timestamp='1361385097' post='909263698']
Juniors now washed away 60% of capital. Hope nobody was long miners :ph34r:
[/quote]

Ouch - I bet there are lots of comments about 'backing up the truck' from gold bugs at this point :blink:

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[quote name='R K' timestamp='1361385097' post='909263698']
Juniors now washed away 60% of capital. Hope nobody was long miners :ph34r:


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=GDXJ,P&listNum=
[/quote]

Big volumes of late...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p82461686054

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[quote name='Grrrr I'm a tiger' timestamp='1361435042' post='909263993']
Big volumes of late...

[url="http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p82461686054"]http://stockcharts.c...id=p82461686054[/url]
[/quote]

Due a dead cat bounce soon. Beautiful sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the blow off top. Amazing the permabulls have still ramping it all through this period. One presumes it ain't their capital at risk!

Gold itself is very overvalued now relative to these bust miners. Once Paulson's clients start unloading and he's a forced GLD seller it could all turn very nasty very quickly. Edited by R K

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[b]Chris Martenson - Warning: Stocks Likely to Crater from Here[/b]

[url="http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/81049/warning-stocks-likely-crater-here"]Losses of over 50% (!) may be in store[/url]

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Last attempt for a top call now that I've got an even better understanding of Lindsay's methods..... hopefully March 12, 2013 is the top. :)

A new rule I’m writing says ‘anytime an extended basic advance goes beyond 968 days taken from the absolute low of a prior decline, it must be re-calculated from a secondary low – this is also required when other important counts cannot be reached by the 968th day in advance’. It's not said like this in Lindsay's works, but that's the implication and is easier to remember as a rule.

An important middle section count taking point C of April 27, 2010 to October 4, 2011 counts 525 days. Counting forward 525 days targets a high on Tuesday March 12, 2013.

Counting from the July 2, 2010 closing low to March 12, 2013 closing high counts 984 days which is outside of an extended basic advance (929 to 968 days).

So counting from the August 26, 2010 secondary clsosing low to March 12, 2013 closing high counts 929 days – a number of extended basic advances have occurred in the range of 929 to 935 days before.

A small ’3 peaks & domed house’ pattern in the 3rd peak (which could be either a third peak of a large ’3 peaks & domed house’ pattern which is yet to complete or the final peak in a much more bearish and rare ‘domed house & 3 peaks’ which would complete sooner) looks to have completed point 23, which is 7 months and 10 days from point 1.

[attachment=22121:hpc120313.png]


This also pushes out the expected date for a bear market low - more later!

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[quote name='Catflap' timestamp='1363141492' post='909278213']
Last attempt for a top call now that I've got an even better understanding of Lindsay's methods..... hopefully March 12, 2013 is the top. :)


[/quote]

Too late. I called it yesterday morning in t'other thread. B)

#plagiarist.

p.s. there's a link in there to a vid with a cycles bloke called Terry something or other if you're interested. 17.6, 4.4, 2.2. Seemed right up your street.

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[quote name='R K' timestamp='1363172442' post='909278439']
Too late. I called it yesterday morning in t'other thread. B)

#plagiarist.

p.s. there's a link in there to a vid with a cycles bloke called Terry something or other if you're interested. 17.6, 4.4, 2.2. Seemed right up your street.
[/quote]

You've just got to make sure that you've called enough of them, then all bases are covered and you can then elevate yourself to DrRK ;)

I do look at the other thread and saw the links but could not get any of them to load - not me though....... I've gone off cycles work as it's too hit and miss apart from the really big general stuff. Prefer intervals of time counted from a low to a high or a high to a low like Lindsay used. But I'll have another go and the links to see if they will work - thanks.

Nowt wrong with flat caps either - I'm watching you!

[img]http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/drama/images/flat_cap.jpg[/img]

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[quote name='R K' timestamp='1363172442' post='909278439']
p.s. there's a link in there to a vid with a cycles bloke called Terry something or other if you're interested. 17.6, 4.4, 2.2. Seemed right up your street.
[/quote]

Got it to load (computer slow I think) and watched it........ hmm, seems too simplistic but probably 'ok' for the average investor who wants to beat buy-and-hold. I could not watch it to the end though and he doesn't explain why the markets went up into 2013 instead of 2011 which I can now through a bigger cycle of 25 years...... March 1937 top, December 1961 top, October 1987 top and March 2013 top.

I’ve also found a large 17.5 month cycle which agrees with my other work almost precisely - it starts at the November 2008 low where most western stocks (apart from financials) and commodities/emerging markerts/Asia etc made their lows. How long it lasts before fading away remains to be seen.

[attachment=22128:hpc180313.png]


Interestingly, whilst not on the same cycle, the October 11, 2007 high to the March 6, 2009 low was 512 days. Another cycle of 512 to 528 days might target the next low which would then come in August 2014 sometime.


Last Thursday (not on HPC) I wrote this:

"Update of the Lindsay chart with the smaller ’3 peaks & domed house’ pattern within the larger pattern from point 26 to point 27 (higher right shoulder).

In trying to make it fit by being convinced the top was in based on the counts, I placed the left shoulder too low making the wall of the 2nd story way too short. This now looks better proportioned, so point 23 is being made now it seems.

[attachment=22129:hpc180313-2.png]


The extended basic advance from the August 26, 2010 secondary low to today counts 931 days. With the number of counts that have grouped between 929 and 935 days in the Dow’s history (October 10, 2008 to May 2, 2011 was 934 days as well) then we are almost there!

932 days will be reached on Friday and 935 days on Monday next week"


As it happened, March 14, 2013 lined-up pefectly with the 221-224 day count as well as the 17.5 month cycle I had just discovered. So that should be the top of the bull market as everything has now lined up and the market got to where it had to get to complete the various cycles. A bear market should now be underway and this will last a minimum of 220 days counted from the March 14, 2013 closing high which means a final bear market low in late October 2013 at the earliest. I will now try and work this date out more precisely.

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Oops!......... still a bull market in the US for a few more days yet it seems. April 9th, 2013 is when all the pieces fit together again so that should definetely be it. It seems the 102 to 113 days count should only have been taken from the 'more significant lows' of either point 10 or point 14.

This will count 957 days from the secondary low of August 26, 2010 and would match the March 10, 1937 top and extended basic advance which was 958 days (1 days difference).

[attachment=22145:hpc010413.png]

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[quote name='Catflap' timestamp='1364773983' post='909294151']
Oops!......... still a bull market in the US for a few more days yet it seems. April 9th, 2013 is when all the pieces fit together again so that should definetely be it. It seems the 102 to 113 days count should only have been taken from the 'more significant lows' of either point 10 or point 14.

This will count 957 days from the secondary low of August 26, 2010 and would match the March 10, 1937 top and extended basic advance which was 958 days (1 days difference).

[attachment=22145:hpc010413.png]
[/quote]

I think you've got the worst case of retrofit I've ever seen. :D

I often have the mirror image of the same problem which is imagining patterns into the future which uses its foundation, the past, as its basis. But I'm far less scientific about that human foible. You've taken it to another level. :P Edited by Grrrr I'm a tiger

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