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felix   
6 hours ago, Phillip in Nice said:

As the evening goes on, the busiest place is probably Sass cafe.

One of my favourites too!

Sorry, my question was related to people that live in Monaco and go to Nice for the evening/night. Where in Nice do they go to?

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Coming from Monaco to Nice, it is a bit more spread out. Places open a lot more often in Nice and sometimes it's hard to keep up. Apoteka was always full of people from MC but that closed down. Likely places might be the rooftop terrace of the Hussard, or Merkatos. Probably Coulis later. The young crowd like the grungier bars. In the summer it may be Nice for bars but the clubbing is in Cannes. Baoli is a popular one.

Phillip.

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Alba   
On 1/21/2017 at 1:07 PM, Phillip in Nice said:

Somebody mentioned Nice so I thought I would give a 2017 update. Disclaimer: I am a real estate agent there so feel free to take that perspective into account. Brexit has not had much of an effect so far. Everybody was braced for potential visa-type restrictions and the pound to plummet, but it turned out to be a bit of a damp squib. I personally do not know a single person that has left because of Brexit, or even put their place up for sale. Most foreign sellers are Italians, because of their poor economy and punishing taxes. British buyers are getting mortgage rates of up to under 1% at the moment here, my last client got 1.1%, so that is still pushing sales.

I am surprised if British purchases are still as buoyant in France or indeed Spain given the current reticence of both Britain and the EU over the position of expats post Brexit!

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I would use the word steady rather than buoyant when it comes to the Cote d'Azur. The British have been buying in Nice for a couple of hundred years, long before the EU existed. Brexit has made surprisingly little difference. In my recent experience, priority goes (a) exchange rate (b) interest rate (c) Brexit, with (c) quite far behind. As I said previously, people are using (b) to hedge against (a). The problem is that AirBnb has been so successful it is now quite hard to find a good pied-a-terre for sale here.

The expat market is less significant than Spain. Few of my clients buy to directly retire here. Most that want to move here are buying with a view to moving in 5-10 years time. In the mean time they will use it for extended holidays, and rent it out during the summer to pay for costs/mortgage.

Most expats here are not too worried, including myself. We know there are 1/4M French living in England, it is unlikely the French would do something mutually destructive. Worst comes to worst, after 5 years you get a French passport. You can hold French and British dual-nationality.

Phillip.

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Alba   

Brexit has certainly influenced my mindset.  Rather than buy I am now more inclined to rent.  In fact I will be renting in Nice this summer through AirBnb.  I did the same in Spain last year, and Cannes the year before that.

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I would book now. After the attack in Nice last summer, people quickly dropped their prices on AirBnb as much as 20% just in case it had an adverse affect on rentals. In fact, rentals packed out as usual the rest of 2016. As people start to see rentals fill up as usual in 2017 they will start putting their prices back up.

If you are going to a different country every year, then buying a holiday home somewhere does not make much sense. You are better off waiting until you find a place you really love. You can find bargain properties everywhere, but finding that special place abroad that is yours and you can do what you want with is amazing. Don't rush into it until you've at least found the right city.

Phillip.

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10 hours ago, felix said:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-27/millionaire-migrants-countries-rich-people-are-flocking

Apparently many are leaving France. I would say good news for me, as it should make property prices drop.

Any idea where these 12000 are mainly going to?

Millionaires tend to go to the US and Canada not just for the lifestyle but also because it has a better business eco-system. The millionaires with houses in France will be second homes, so won't be included in this figure. Now is not a bad time to buy. Properties in the €5M-€25M range have already dropped in price on the French Riviera as the Russian have disappeared. However if Fillon gets elected he has said he will abolish wealth tax, which will give prices a boost again. Before his scandal he was a shoe-in, but now he is looking 50/50 with Macron.

As for making prices drop, it will have zero impact on the macroscopic level. The luxury villa market lives in its own little bubble.

Phillip.

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Quote

Before his scandal he was a shoe-in, but now he is looking 50/50 with Macron.

More like 100-1 against.

:D

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Nice Matin this weekend.

New builds:Average price per sq metre in Alpes Maritimes down 2% - 5226euros

Resales : Average price per sq metre in Alpes Maritimes down 1% - 3889euros

 

My view? :

Market stable in Nice after years of decline. Nice metropolitan area is where most sales activity is. The rest of the region ? Still downward, seems to be the trajectory.

Anything priced above 400K euros struggling to find a buyer. As the President of the Real Estate office on the Riviera says himself : "The problem is the the demographics are not good".

Even with historical low Interest Rates at 0.5% and modest incomes benefitting from an extension of the govt's PTZ program (0% IR's for a part of the purchase, ie. Free Money) - prices are still high compared to incomes. In this scenario, I think prices still have some way to fall from their bubble prices. Sure, there will always be a market for the rich on the Cote d'Azur, but this is a micro market removed from the daily reality of the rest of the market. It's always been the same. Same for the sea-view purchases, which hold their value. However , many struggle to sell now due to the excessive monthly "charges" that can be up to 400-500 euros.

I'm seeing villas around the Antibes/Valbonne/Cagnes/Biot areas struggling to sell. Any prices in the EA's windows to be taken with a pinch of salt. One EA recently told me to bid 20% less than the price and I'd probably secure!

I've been watching the slow HPC on the Riviera for years. If IR's start to rise - and the US and Trump seem to suggest that that's the new way forward - then further declines in prices should follow. Phillip In Nice - you're an EA there so will know more about that market than me....but do you see prices rising if the bank IRs to borrowers rise by 1-2% ?

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felix   
On ‎06‎/‎03‎/‎2017 at 6:17 PM, Agentimmo said:

Same for the sea-view purchases, which hold their value. However , many struggle to sell now due to the excessive monthly "charges" that can be up to 400-500 euros.

These excessive charges only apply to sea view properties?

I value sea view a lot, but God, in the Côte d'Azur we are truly talking 2 or even 3 times the price of something in darkness. For convenience my interest only goes to apartments, but in that one I am not alone either, as I see houses being sold relatively cheap compared to those apartments.

Any idea what the % of second homes is in Nice?

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I would agree that the villa market is struggling compared to the apartment market, which is quite robust in Nice. The % of foreign owners in Nice is probably less than 1% overall but quite high in the Old Town and Carré d'Or. Yields are so high that local shop owners are snapping up properties to put on AirBnb, so the percentage of foreign owned secondary residences might even be going down.

Property prices have been relatively stagnant here the past few years. Creeping up in the centre and down in the north and west. I'd expect a few % rise per year, for a number of factors I think I mentioned earlier.

There is no way you will get monthly charges of €400-500/month in Nice. Half that at most. As regards sea view, yes it can be 2x. The Promenade can easily by €10,000/m2. Most clients that view on the Prom end up buying a few blocks back for half the price.

Phillip.

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felix   

Good read, Phillip!

There seems to be this world wide search for convenience, Yes, living in a house with a garden may feel more relaxed, but then dealing with issues like security, gardening, etc. forget about it. Shops, bars & restaurants all need to be walking distance. A good public transportation system is a real bonus. I have kind of worked out that Nice is then the place to be. I simply wished I was not alone in all this.

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If you want a house with a pool, be easy distance to the beach, and if you are on a budget then Nice is not really the best place. You can get a brand new villa twice the size with pool within 10-15min drive of the beach for less in the south of Spain. However, the lifestyles are not comparable. It is not just the sunshine, but the culture and history where France meets Italy is quite unique. Some expats that come and only go to the local English pub get bored after a few years, complain there is nothing to do, and then leave. Those that keep their eyes open stay because they love it. For instance, this afternoon the main conference centre of Nice is open to all the wine producers of France. There are hundreds of stands with thousands of wines and champagnes to sample. You pay €6 to get in, and after that you can sample unlimited wines. Even ones costing hundreds of euros per bottle. The owners of the vineyards are there to explain how each is made, and the difference in taste between each year. It's an incredible experience.

The beauty of the city is that everything is within walking distance. You can walk the width of the centre, from Boulevard Gambetta to the Old Town, in around 15 minutes. Public transport, just €1 for unlimited distance, is a plus but I rarely use it unless in a hurry. You do not need to convince anybody else that Nice is the place to be. There are hundreds of cities, many of them fabulous in their own unique way. Much like the aforementioned wines, each has its own unique blend. You have found the blend that is right for you.

Phillip.

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felix   
On ‎09‎/‎04‎/‎2017 at 8:53 AM, felix said:

I simply wished I was not alone in all this.

Sorry, of course I meant to say: Sadly I am not alone in all this.

22 hours ago, Phillip in Nice said:

You pay €6 to get in, and after that you can sample unlimited wines. Even ones costing hundreds of euros per bottle. The owners of the vineyards are there to explain how each is made, and the difference in taste between each year. It's an incredible experience.

Lovely. I am a huge consumer of just red wine!

22 hours ago, Phillip in Nice said:

You do not need to convince anybody else that Nice is the place to be. There are hundreds of cities, many of them fabulous in their own unique way. Much like the aforementioned wines, each has its own unique blend. You have found the blend that is right for you.

I am referring to where to settle in the Côte d'Azur 

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seymour   

I fully support Phillipe in Nice's advice on the process to find a property that ticks all the right boxes.

We (family of 3) had 6-7 week long holidays to 5 locations in France (Nice, Gap, Annecy, Lyon, Basel) and narrowed on the Annecy/Geneva/Chamonix triangle for our final 'research'. In Nov2015 my wife gave up work in the UK to focus on the house search and arranged visits to properties found on seloger.fr, exchanging many emails with agents (thank god for googletranslate). In the week before Christmas2015 we viewed 6 houses over a 3 day period, and only two houses met the final shortlist. On return to the UK we made our offer of full asking price of 485K (agent fees included) euros for a beautiful 204 sqm chalet style 1992 built house in Marignier (Haute-Savoie) which was immediately accepted. Sadly the owner died a week later (he had terminal cancer which we were informed of minutes before our viewing). We naturally gave the surviving spouse and daughter time to grieve but informed them we would stand by our offer whatever time it took. In Feb2016 we pursued the purchase with our notaire and in May we concluded the purchase. We moved to our Marignier house in July  after my 17 yo son had finished his final year at a senior school in the UK. 

So if there is a lesson here, it takes time to buy a house in France (and probably elsewhere). Estate agents never give all the photos and information that you need for a purchase, you really must visit each candidate property and haggle on the price if you wish but be prepared to lose or walk away and return for another visit 6 weeks later as Phippe in Nice suggests. We were lucky in hindsight with a single 3 day visit.

Wishing you all a happy experience searching for your French property.

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Capital growth in Paris has been high compared to the rest of France. The average price is now €9,000/m², twice that of Nice. I don't know Paris well enough to understand the factors why. The Mayor of Paris has declared war on AirBnb, which eliminates higher yield holiday rentals. If you want capital growth, I hear Spain is good at the moment.

Looking at that chart, it makes London look a bad buy. However Berlin suffers from rent control, and Italy and Portugal are still economic basket cases. Shame it doesn't show eastern European countries. Poland is supposed to be strong, and I see Czech and Estonian prices went up 10% recently.

Phillip.

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What with recent floods, earthquakes , landslides and fires I suspect prices in the back country between Nice and Mandelieu might see further falls. Heard too many horror stories these last 5 yrs. Houses built to poor spec / scrub land not being cut back due to costs / estates on flood lands, etc.

Personally, not for me. 

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Looking at media speculation the last few days re housing reforms.  Possibly reducing aid, subsidies for the private sectors including the BTL brigade here in France.  Idea is to push investment monies to more productive areas of the economy and also reduce rents.  Not before time imo. 

http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2017/09/05/20002-20170905ARTFIG00352-logement-emmanuel-macron-lance-la-chasse-aux-economies.php

 

 

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4 hours ago, Agentimmo said:

Looking at media speculation the last few days re housing reforms.  Possibly reducing aid, subsidies for the private sectors including the BTL brigade here in France.  Idea is to push investment monies to more productive areas of the economy and also reduce rents.  Not before time imo. 

http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2017/09/05/20002-20170905ARTFIG00352-logement-emmanuel-macron-lance-la-chasse-aux-economies.php

 

 

Various private subsidies, usually along the lines of writing off a percentage of purchase cost against income tax as long as you rent it out long-term below market rate for a minimum amount of time (last time 9 years), have cropped up regularly the past couple of decades (Pinel, Duflot, etc). Their generosity varies over time, depending on the profligacy of the current government and the perceived acuteness of the housing shortage.

The government wants to reduce housing benefits, but will be hit by the shortfall next year by cancelling "taxe habitation" (a secondary council tax, equivalent of the English Poll Tax). Macron proposed reducing nationwide rents by €5/month but this has been ridiculed by both landlord and tenant associations.

Macron will be forced to raise money from somewhere but it remains to be seen if he will try and squeeze home owners. Nothing realistic I've seen on the horizon yet but this could change next year. Who knows. So far so good though.

Phillip.

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Thanks for your insight Phillip. 

Very well explained as usual! 

As you say, it will be interesting to see where LREM party and Macron tax to make up the taxe d'habitation shortfall.  

I suspect it won't be the Qatari business interests in France....

Edited by Agentimmo

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