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Elizabeth

When Do You Reckon Will Be A Good Time To Buy

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I think 18 months time but voted for 2 years

I think the market will move quicker than in the 1990's because of the size of the disconnect between prices and earnings this time round, the size of BTL market, the effect of information about prices etc on the internet and finally the rapid departure of all the sub prime lenders and specilist lenders. The repossession numbers will be lower in part due to BMV buyer stepping in but possession proceeding will be higher than in the 1990s.

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[quote name='The Ginger Winger' post='1153302' date='Jun 6 2008, 12:51 AM']I think 18 months time but voted for 2 years[/quote]

Voted having thought 18 months, then saw this comment. I think Xmas '09 will be very quiet on the market and you'll have a good chance of haggling more off than you think before the "spring bounce".

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I put 2012 because daly I think this is going to drag on and on. Its going to be painful but I think prices will continue to drop for 4 years. I'm just looking at the graph on the front of the HPC site and mentally extrapolating how long the crash lasted last time. Its like a giant game of chicken. Sad thing is this is my life im wasting. I just wish the boom haddened happended and that i could focus on having a life. Those evil BTL's have alot to awnser for.

Anyone read Hitch hikers guide to the galaxy? It starts off with them trying to knock down aurther Dents House, and so Ford Prefect ?? Reasons with him to go to the pub on the grounds that he's going to lie in front of the bulldover, so his house is safe, and so on those grounds he might as well assume hes doing that etc etc and go to the pub. Not sure of the parralell, but why cant home owners understand that house prices are going to crash by 80% and by holding out they are hurting other people, like in a hostage situation, and so they had better sell now for 20% true value and alleviate the suffering of people like me, ELSE PAY THE TRUE COST OF OUR RATH!!! etc etc etc.

Man, I want a spare room so I can build a masterbatorium for jerking off in with pictures of girls all over the walls and soothing jerking off music and plasma screens showning el neato porn feeds etc etc, and web cams and a hot line to the Escort Agency.

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You guys are staring into the tea leaves which is fine to a point. But IMHO if you need somewhere to live then the right time to buy a house is now while sellers are spooked & before inflation dents your cash savings.

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[quote name='levoleurdefruits' post='1153310' date='Jun 6 2008, 01:01 AM']You guys are staring into the tea leaves which is fine to a point. But IMHO if you need somewhere to live then the right time to buy a house is now while sellers are spooked & before inflation dents your cash savings.[/quote]

I must admit, that is one of my biggest worries. Having no real assets could be a big mistake if inflation takes off.

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I said three years, not because I think things will be on the up by then, but because renting will mean the possibility of being evicted and having to abandon food crops :ph34r: <_<

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[quote name='Hara' post='1153307' date='Jun 6 2008, 12:58 AM']Voted having thought 18 months, then saw this comment. I think Xmas '09 will be very quiet on the market and you'll have a good chance of haggling more off than you think before the "spring bounce".[/quote]

I think you can forget the idea of any kind of bounce before 2011.

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[quote name='levoleurdefruits' post='1153310' date='Jun 6 2008, 01:01 AM']You guys are staring into the tea leaves which is fine to a point. But IMHO if you need somewhere to live then the right time to buy a house is now while sellers are spooked & before inflation dents your cash savings.[/quote]

Sellers may be spooked but they are not slashing prices accordingly. If you need somwhere to live, rent. If you are worried about inflation either look for a good investment (which involves a bit of work) or go out and blow your savings while they are still worth something :ph34r: .

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Based on the last GC I thought 6 years but the BTL-effect has made me think it will be quicker.

I went for 4 but, like the vulture fund poll, there's a lot of bias inherent in the banding!

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3-5 years. After the initial downward lurch (15-20% this year), this will be a long, slow and painful correction. In the end I fully expect to see a 50-70% HPC.

Monty

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[quote name='mrcutegurlzz' post='1153309' date='Jun 6 2008, 01:01 AM']Man, I want a spare room so I can build a masterbatorium for jerking off in with pictures of girls all over the walls and soothing jerking off music and plasma screens showning el neato porn feeds etc etc, and web cams and a hot line to the Escort Agency.[/quote]

More tea vicar? :P

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Will take about three years to get back to some sort of sensible multiple and then at least another three years to deal with the fallout to the wider economy.
I really have got 2014/15 pencilled in as the time to start looking. Anyone who thinks this is gonna last a couple of yrs tops is deluding themselves. But armageddon will be avoided - 99.96% guaranteed. :P

GT.

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[quote name='uncle_monty' post='1153410' date='Jun 6 2008, 06:41 AM']3-5 years. After the initial downward lurch (15-20% this year), this will be a long, slow and painful correction. In the end I fully expect to see a 50-70% HPC.

Monty[/quote]

Agreed. We (Mrs STA and I) have built a strategy around buying at the bottom of the market whatever that is. I can't see that happening in the next three years; 2012/3 is likely to be the earliest time to start thinking about buying based on previous crashes, but it could be a much longer process than last time. We are happy to wait longer as the prices will go down further and will enable us to buy cheaper and have more cash to spare for our retirement.

I am still thinking about a 40-50% nominal price correction is likely, but am slowly adjusting to the idea it could be worse than this and we will see an unprecedented collapse in residential property prices as a result of a Depression, but it is difficult to predict all the policy responses and how people are likely to respond at this stage.

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Obviously, the time to buy will be when the banks have got mortgages on offer. Then the HPI will start again.

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[quote name='DrBubb' post='1153352' date='Jun 6 2008, 02:29 AM']I said years ago: 2010-2013.

Why change a good forecast?[/quote]
You're being a bit selective with your forecasts there DrB. You used to argue that 2006 would be a good time to buy.

[quote name='DrBubb' post='47785' date='Dec 24 2004, 09:10 AM']" buy investment property in the south east if 10% gross yield occurs"

How likely is that?
I reckon you will need to wait for 2006[/quote]

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[quote name='Bloo Loo' post='1153449' date='Jun 6 2008, 08:04 AM']Obviously, the time to buy will be when the banks have got mortgages on offer. Then the HPI will start again.[/quote]

Thats when some big economy (read Japan) wants to manage a deflationary programme and they start handing out 0% corporate money like sweeties again.

[quote name='Hara' post='1153315' date='Jun 6 2008, 01:05 AM']I must admit, that is one of my biggest worries. Having no real assets could be a big mistake if inflation takes off.[/quote]

But that is the whole point about interest rates. Interest rates need to stay above inflation to manage money supply. So unless we had a hyperinflationary meltdown (of the Robert Mugabe murders 1/2 the pop, and gives all the farms to his urban mates hence starving the other 1/2, then rigs the election by so badly beating the two people left to vote that they can't turn up at the polling booth type) then what you will do is bung your money progressively into the highest interest rate account and it should stay just ahead of the inflationary figures - in 1987 I was getting 18% - anyway, don't worry, just go with the wave... Edited by Elizabeth

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Am in the middle of buying. Have found a house we really like, can afford, mortgage free. Intend to be there 10-15 years. Sod the downturn, life's too short.

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[quote name='cartimandua51' post='1154424' date='Jun 6 2008, 06:27 PM']Am in the middle of buying. Have found a house we really like, can afford, mortgage free. Intend to be there 10-15 years. Sod the downturn, life's too short.[/quote]

Thats great :D

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[quote name='Hara' post='1153307' date='Jun 6 2008, 12:58 AM']Voted having thought 18 months, then saw this comment.[/quote]

I think 18 months for those who would otherwise be ready to buy now (i.e. have a substantial deposit ~50%)

I expect the decline to be substantial and drawn out... I expect prices to fall in nominal terms for three years - though the lion's share will from now-on. Thereafter I expect prices to be flat or fall very slightly for a further 6 or 7 years.

This means that for those who do not have substantial deposits, it will be best to wait for significantly longer.

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[quote name='mrcutegurlzz' post='1153309' date='Jun 6 2008, 01:01 AM']so I can build a masterbatorium for jerking off in[/quote]
I believe the correct terms are W4nkatorium or Masturbarium. Jizznasium is an acceptable regional variant Materbatorium just makes you sound stupid like.

"You'll find the toiletlobby just through the hall - if you reach the cookchen you've gone too far"

Please let's not get lazy with our wonderful language - It makes me SOOOO ANGRY

Lots of people will be visiting this site now the HPC is underway - and we risk looking like a bunch of idiots who cant spell proper. Edited by sbn

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It's going to have to be when the last of the highly indebted come off their teaser-rate interest only mortgage deals - 3 years + from the peak...around winter 2010 (or spring 2011 when they get repossessed!) Edited by MiCasaSuCasa

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