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Guardian.co.uk 29.05.08


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#1 Killer Bunny

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Posted 29 May 2008 - 03:18 PM

What now for buyers and sellers?

Various commentaries

In 1931 they did not know yet that they were in The Great Depression
Cap'n, you cannae change the laws of... Economics!
"If they raise rates we're toast. If they don't its BECAUSE we're toast" Pundit: Sky News March 2011
"That which is unsustainable will not sustain" Milton Friedman


#2 Bosco

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Posted 29 May 2008 - 03:30 PM

What now for buyers and sellers?

Various commentaries


Fantastic FP, just disappointed you didn't get your trademark property snake pun in there too, keep up the good work
'Steering the wanderly wagon through the reaaaaaaally evil housing market.....'

#3 drrayjo

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Posted 29 May 2008 - 03:32 PM

"We don't want house prices to fall"


Don't we?
:unsure:

(I understand the need for sensitivity but still....)
"‘Historically, societies that seek high levels of instant gratification and are willing to borrow against future incomes to achieve it have more often than not suffered inflation and stagnation. The economies of such societies tend to run larger government deficits financed with fiat money from a printing press.

Eventually, the ensuing inflation leads to a recession or worse, often because central banks are forced to clamp down...I regret that the US may not be wholly immune to it."

Alan Greenspan in "The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World", 2007.

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it"

Upton Sinclair

#4 The Colour

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Posted 29 May 2008 - 03:56 PM

Sorry FP but not your best performance. You could have really put the boot in.
GUESS WHAT? I GOT A FEVER! AND THE ONLY PRESCRIPTION.. IS MORE HPC!

-------------------------

#5 Mikhail Liebenstein

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Posted 29 May 2008 - 04:29 PM

Sorry FP but not your best performance. You could have really put the boot in.



I think that is rather harsh. Surely better to lead through gentle persuasion and measured comments.

If you appear as prickley as a cactus no one will listen.


Well done FP.

#6 jimmy_joe

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Posted 29 May 2008 - 06:57 PM

"However, you have to look at it in perspective. We've seen a 190% increase in property prices over the last 10 years. Most people who have bought in the past decade will be safe."

Mortgage Equity Withdrawal, anyone?

I'm a chartered financial planner and the fundamentals just aren't there

Whaddaya mean? This is a small island...there's concrete everywhere...
http://maps.google.c...e...0.6427&z=11

Edited by jimmy_joe, 29 May 2008 - 06:58 PM.


#7 Nickolarge

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Posted 29 May 2008 - 07:36 PM

Whaddaya mean? This is a small island...there's concrete everywhere...
http://maps.google.c...e...0.6427&z=11


Wrong, this is a large island. Anyone who drives about knows that there is countryside everywhere and only concrete in a comparatively small percentage.


Edited to say: Sorry, only looked at your link after posting :lol:

Edited by Nickolarge, 29 May 2008 - 07:39 PM.

[

#8 Lone_Twin

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Posted 29 May 2008 - 09:02 PM

We don't want house prices to fall

.
.
Disapointing
.
ST
<< Formerly Super Ted >>

The banks are licenced by the government to extract profit from their slice of the monopoly in the issue of the state mandated means of exchange. Bankers bonuses like MPs expenses are distractions from theft and violence at a systematic level. -- ST
-----
You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality. -- Ayn Rand

#9 Optobear

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Posted 29 May 2008 - 09:48 PM

.
.
Disapointing
.
ST


I echo your disappointment. Personally I do want to see prices crash, because then, perhaps I'll be able to trade up, and also might help lead us away from an economy based on financial twaddle and into a real economy based on making stuff.

#10 heatonfan

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Posted 29 May 2008 - 09:57 PM

"We don't want house prices to fall"


This comment makes FP's analysis much more persuasive and (appear) more objective ie. analysis detached from personal preference.

Much better than the Radio 5 blow up with Nicki Campbell a month or so back!

The Guardian is patently 'on side'. You need to get back on the BBC now....

But more generally - not even Savills or the CML tried to pretend that the downturn is a mere market blip in the article. I suppose they are now at the point where they are most concerned about appearing stupid if they keep pretending to ignore reality. And vendors will no longer be able to ignore reality either. Come on!
QUOTE (Young Goat @ Dec 2 2008, 04:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Of course the problem is the bubble has been going on for so long now that people have forgotten how cheap they used to be.


#11 Optobear

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Posted 29 May 2008 - 10:05 PM

"We don't want house prices to fall"


This comment makes FP's analysis much more persuasive and (appear) more objective ie. analysis detached from personal preference.

Much better than the Radio 5 blow up with Nicki Campbell a month or so back!

The Guardian is patently 'on side'. You need to get back on the BBC now....

But more generally - not even Savills or the CML tried to pretend that the downturn is a mere market blip in the article. I suppose they are now at the point where they are most concerned about appearing stupid if they keep pretending to ignore reality. And vendors will no longer be able to ignore reality either. Come on!


If you want analysis to appear detached from personal preference the trick is to avoid saying either
"We don't want house prices to fall",
or
"We do want house prices to fall".

Either is stating a personal preference.

I really don't want to knock FP though. He is doing sterling work in putting the "pro-crash" case.

#12 narco

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Posted 29 May 2008 - 10:16 PM

I agree with the above FP. You should have really gone all out offensive.

What about the liar loans, the reckless predatory lending practices and the buy to let implosion? You should also mention the incoming hyperinflationary collapse of the financial system as the government and BOE attemtps to monetize bankruptcy to keep the housing market afloat. B)
"The Fed "sprays" $180 billion around the world, but markets sell off anyway" -- Bloomberg - Sept 08

#13 Buffer Bear

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Posted 30 May 2008 - 12:45 AM

Well done FP. I don't see anyone challenging you anymore on the possibility (read reality) of 40%+ drops:)
"Debt is the slavery of the free" Publilius Syrus, 42 BC.

#14 Topfishing

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Posted 30 May 2008 - 10:18 AM

...and also might help lead us away from an economy based on financial twaddle and into a real economy based on making stuff.


It is this so-called "financial twaddle" that you appear to advocate that has benefited the UK whether you like it or not. It's funny how everyone is shouting about the negatives that the financial industry can bring about when there is a downturn. You want us to move back to a manufacturing-based economy? I sure as hell don't.

A healthy correction in house prices and certain other areas of the financial environment is welcome. Speculation has got out of control, that is unquestionable. But, your statement is naive I'm afraid to say.

#15 AteMoose

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Posted 30 May 2008 - 11:32 AM

'Anyone who suggests house prices will stabilise after 12 months is talking out of their hat'
Is that a nod to Kirsty, and her eating her hat quote?
I have bought a newish (5 years) house in November 2006. I talked the vendor down 30% off peak 2004 price am am paying less than the 2002 price. I feel prices will continue to drop down to the 2001 price but saving for 5 years hopefully means i wont be stung. The price i am paying isn't much above the price the vendor paid for the place when it was new in 2000. However some idiot is trying to flog an identical house on my road for 55k above the price i paid, one month later!?!?! The housing market is frothy, no-one ever knows what the value of a house is, the value is what someone is willing to pay, make sure you pay alot less than the asking price.

Free to collect, like ebay but you dont pay, you just have to collect

QUOTE (sledgehead)If you make a living from something, you are a professional something: it is your profession. You could bake dog turds and flog them as ornaments. If that's how you make your living, you ARE a professional dog-turd baker. Period
QUOTE (Rolling Stone 13th July 2000)The first thing you need to know about Goldman Sachs is that it's everywhere. The world's most powerful investment bank is a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.

QUOTE (Soon Not a Chain Retailer @ Aug 30 2009, 01:03 AM) Society should provide trampolines not safety nets.

QUOTE (GordonBrown Jan 27 2008 (warning about the coming inflation?))if you don't get the skills you wont get a job
if you get the skills you will earn ALOT of money




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