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HOLA441

Slightly childish, and so defensive, but lets try to see it as a serious reply....

Hey Gasket, thanks for that quick spell check, you're a star! It is true that Im so busy making money that I hadnt checked the spelling properly, so thanks again! Out of interest I googled 'house prices' and it came up fairly near the top. I spent years worrying about house price crashes, until i understood the market properly, as you may come to do soon, I seriously hope for you its not too late.

Do you not see lots of people sleeping on the streets? I do. But to be honest, that's not the consequence of supply and demand, that's the result of holes in the very expensive safety net we call social security. I work voluntarily with some of these people, so I know. The actual result is that people spend more time living in with parents, or renting, or sharing. Im surprised that you seem to think that there isnt a lack of supply, do you have any actual figures on which this is based, Id be interested to see them.

The credit squeeze happens now and again. It will pass. Deregulation of the banks took care of that, they are interested only in the bottom line and from time to time, yes they have to tighten up, but they also have to make money for their shareholders and competition, now truly international, will make them fight to give away more money over time.

I was unsure about posting the web address on here, Im well aware of it looking like advertising. If anyone contacts me through here, Ill give any funds recieved to charity. To be honest, I do it becuse I enjoy understanding the market and helping people to realise what its all about and for them to make money and hence freedom for them too. I know your cynical, so I dojnt expect you to believe that, I can see that for from your very first response, but to be honest, I dont care, you are entitled to your opinion and free speech is one of the greatest assets we have. I applaud your cynicism and also thank you for looking at my website.

PS Ill leave WORLDWIDE unchanged, in honour of you and the glory of free speech(!)....

Edited by mat jackson
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HOLA442

Slightly childish, and so defensive, but lets try to see it as a serious reply....

fair enough mate - we'll agree to differ! :lol:

granted there is a supply problem in the UK of decent family homes - mainly because of the planning laws.

what there isn't a shortage of is the ubiquitous 2 bed BTL flats - there are thousand of them going begging in most towns all over the UK.

i'm in the east midlands and i can assure you there is no shortage of housing for sale. prices have been flat for about two years. i'm keeping a close eye on my local market and i'm open minded enough to question my position all the time - heck if i'm wrong i'll buy a flat (there are increasingly large numbers of repos on the market) or i'll emigrate - the world is a big place, i've done OK out of the stock market and i have a few modest skills and qualifications...

i know a few BTL'ers and some of them are getting a bit twitchy...

it is difficult to sum up the 'bear' argument and i'm not really qualified to do so but the basic premise is that we have had a **global** house price bubble which has driven up prices far in excess of any relation to earnings on the back of low interest rates. government and consumer debt is immense and prices have risen on the back of rampant speculation rather than anything else.

for example i know someone on tax credits who has bought somewhere in cyprus without even seeing it. :blink: it might even be in northern cyprus so i daresay there will be problems over the title. :(

as warren buffett is supposed to have said "when the tide goes out then we will all see who has been swimming naked".

things are only starting to become interesting. for example in the US...

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/st...1859024,00.html

stick around and post more on the main board - this subforum is a bit of a 'backwater'. it is also pretty quiet at weekends. you might find a good 'home' on the overseas investment sub forum which is quite active, especially the ongoing threads/slanging matches about spain!

and if you think i'm cynical then there are far worse 'nutters' around here than me! :P

i've learnt a huge amount from this site - who would have thought to stick some money into precious metals for example?

cheers

P.S. - what do you think about germany?

Edited by gasket37
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HOLA443

Golden Triangle of Spain, go away.

Your writing emanates a stressful, depressing energy like a thousand Amway salesmen on the edge of a breakdown combined with an army of evangelical Christians.

Most people here would be interested in hearing opinions as to why the market is in the place it is and where it is going but you come over all wrong.

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HOLA444
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HOLA445
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HOLA446

fair enough mate - we'll agree to differ! :lol:

granted there is a supply problem in the UK of decent family homes - mainly because of the planning laws.

Mainly because the majority of the population doesn't want more houses built and are quite happy with the planning laws.

BTW what does a man have to do to stop being a new member? I'm getting a bit tired of my threads disappearing just because they allude to "the other place".

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HOLA447

Hi HPC.

New member just saying hello. I have been following HPC for a couple of years and have finally got round to posting on the forum (yes a bit slow, I know). I'm a would-like-to-be FTB - had to let the last place go in '99 after divorce and simply cannot afford a decent home at current prices. I have viewed 42 (yes 42) properties over the last two years that have been within my price range and absolutely nothing has inspired me to make the leap and now all I'm offered are one bed flats - great but I've got two kids and so have given up all together.

I Work in the public sector (education) and have done so for a number of years. The majority of friends keep telling me that shortage of supply in SE will mean that prices keep rising. I'm not convinced - Rising Inflation, unemployment and the sheer level of indebtness must surely have an impact on the housing market and the wider economy. Apart from HPC members, I do feel part of a minority with this sentiment just now - Lots of folk around still seem to be making profits on property and there are no end of SOLD signs in Brighton and Hove and I know plenty of BTL'ers.

An anecdote - an old mate of mine who's been into property for years has been shedding a number of his flats. He has been keen to off load - reducing prices if neccessary, says he'll buy them all back again in a few years. I suspect that he knows a dodgy EA who will pass information on about repossesed property as I think that's how he made his fortune in the first place.

Quite mercenary really but he does seem to have a good understanding of property and he's been telling me to sit tight. He does seem to be the only property owner I know who thinks this way.

:blink:

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HOLA448

Why should I trust someone who is so sloppy that he cannot even spell the word "Worldwide" on his own website. :lol:

More seriously, why have you come to this site? You must be worried about the possibilty of a crash else you wouldn't have googled "house price crash", would you?

there was another snake oil salesman called carl henry who was spamming the board with his stuff recently...

Yes i remember Carl Henry , a real smooth with a smooth avatar gave the impression he knew everything about everything , wonder what happend to him ? Always makes you think when a bull walks in , you think hmmmm what do you want .

Mr Benn is here , i always thought he lived at 52 Festive street .

Edited by grey shark
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HOLA449
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HOLA4410

52 Festival Road. I used to love the way they ran. And the way the shopkeeper appeared - as if by magic.

keeper2.gif

DURCH

I just checked it was 52 FESTIVE ROAD , just pasted this from a case study - mr. Benn website .

First broadcast in 1972, only 13 episodes of Mr. Benn were ever made. Each weekend Mr. Benn, a London based businessman complete with suit and bowler hat, would visit the curious costume shop he had discovered. 'As if by magic' the magic shopkeeper would appear and aid him in his choice of costume. Ushered into the changing room Mr. Benn would try on the costume and go through another door, to find himself in a different world, befitting the costume. There he would perform good deeds - helping mermaids, dragons, hunters and even a genie. Finally the magic shopkeeper would appear once more and summon him back.

Mr. Benn would hand the costume over, having had quite enough excitement, and return home to number 52 Festive Road. And somehow he always found a souvenir in his suit pocket to help him remember his adventures.

*********

Looks like he lived in a 3 bedroom victorian terraced house , back in the early 70's he probably just had a sensible repayment mortgage over 25 years and wouldn't know what MEW was if it came up and hit him in the face :lol:

Edited by grey shark
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HOLA4411

Hi everyone like most i have watched this sight for a while, and have found it a grate source for information. Their are a lot of posters who have a good if not excellent knowledge of the market (and Others). Like most on here i am annoyed at the way Hpi has stripped my chance of owning a house of my own. In the forseable future anyway. I am not wanting to make profit from the market but believe everyone is entitled to a house. It is not a luxury but a necessity. I work for a Mercedes benz and earn a descent wage for a 24 year old. But live in east anglia......I currently rent and will do so until i am satisfied i will not be paying for a poxy flat for the rest of my days.....I thankyou.

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HOLA4412

Hi

First post and enjoying reading the views here.

I'm not sure whether I'm a bear or a bull yet but I recently moved out of my mortgaged London house to rent in Worcestershire at half the cost of my mortgage with green fields for views and a great school near-by for my kids.

House in London is currently being rented out, not sure what to do with it yet...

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HOLA4413

Hello all

I have been lurking here for a long time and thought I ought to register.

About 18 months ago I was seriously considering buying a flat in East London. I felt under pressure to "get on the ladder" or I might "miss the boat". I was more than a little uncomfortable about getting myself into a huge amount of debt, and couldn't get my head around the idea of borrowing £100K + to live in a complete shite hole! :blink:

Thankfully I discovered this forum and realised I was not alone in the belief that property is/was over-hyped and over-priced - all I want is somewhere to live, not somewhere to flip to the next mug to come along.

Anyway thanks for all the regulars for the knowledge they have shared - it has been very enlightening - hopefully I will be able to add something to the community in the coming months. :)

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HOLA4414
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HOLA4415
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HOLA4416

Hi another lurker surfacing. I am a bear and believe the housing market is a spectacular bubble, perhaps one of the greats. Anyone who thinks we live in a new paradigm, and is disheartened, should read "the Money maker" by Janet Gleason. it charts John Laws introduction of paper money into Louis xivths France, the subsequent bubble and collapse of the French economy Swop bonds for property and it could be now. happy hunting :

Edited by hankdd
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HOLA4417

Hi! I'm 38, living in London, self employed and a lifelong saver fed up with paying a fortune to rent a room in someone's house. I could have easily bought in the mid-1990s but I'm a restless soul who used to change jobs and location every couple of years and has travelled the world a few times.

At the moment everyone around me seems to be buying property and even my landlady is nagging me to get on the ladder, saying I might not be able to afford it soon. I saw a mortgage broker a few weeks ago who told me I could easily get a five-times-my-annual-income mortgage and that "it's better to be paying your own mortgage than somebody else's". I was enthusiastic for a few days, until a bearish piece in The Guardian brought all my doubts to the fore. A spot of Googling brought me to this site, and having read about what's been happening in the US and Australia, I'm being hugely cautious again.

Reading about the herd mentality and how previous crashes played out has struck a lot of chords with me. I just hope a correction happens soon, as I don't want to be the last bear who turns into a bull.

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HOLA4418

Hi! I'm 38, living in London, self employed and a lifelong saver fed up with paying a fortune to rent a room in someone's house. I could have easily bought in the mid-1990s but I'm a restless soul who used to change jobs and location every couple of years and has travelled the world a few times.

At the moment everyone around me seems to be buying property and even my landlady is nagging me to get on the ladder, saying I might not be able to afford it soon. I saw a mortgage broker a few weeks ago who told me I could easily get a five-times-my-annual-income mortgage and that "it's better to be paying your own mortgage than somebody else's". I was enthusiastic for a few days, until a bearish piece in The Guardian brought all my doubts to the fore. A spot of Googling brought me to this site, and having read about what's been happening in the US and Australia, I'm being hugely cautious again.

Reading about the herd mentality and how previous crashes played out has struck a lot of chords with me. I just hope a correction happens soon, as I don't want to be the last bear who turns into a bull.

If youv'e waited 38 years , wait a couple more , as houses certainly ain't going up anymore , the bubble is at breaking point and it's gonna go............................................BANG , CRASH , WALLOP ...............real soon .

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HOLA4419

Been browsing this site for ages. Some really good posts and debate on here.

Anyway my situation I STR'd in December 2005 wanted to downsize and have less maintenance to worry about. Also thought that the market was very toppy even though interest rates were reasonably low. Thought with energy prices and taxes rising peoples disposable income will gradually start reducing. Always dangerous being out of the market and a bit of a gamble but thought the upside is limited and the downside more so. Currently in rented and like the freedom this gives me. Even through six months rental prices are dropping in the area i'm in (West Sussex) with more supply available. Excellent!

Anyway good to see some healthy debate on here from Bulls and us Bears!

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HOLA4421

A big hello to everyone.

Unfortunately, like many people nowadays, I have recently gone through a divorce. It's possibly not the situation I would have imagined myself being in 20 years ago but I guess that's life & you have to move on.

I left a good sized 4 bed detached with my ex-wife & kids & moved back with my parents until I get sorted (45 & back living with parents...ok you can stop laughing now).

Actually it's not all bad, I miss my kids terribly, but see them every week & I have rediscovered a full & exciting social life (Salsa being one of my new found talents...I recommend this to anyone single)!

If I could only get my own place, I would feel a lot more settled & ready to get on with the rest of my life. Ok, I admit I'm not as badly off as a lot of people, as I've got a reasonable deposit & don't need a huge place, but with the current state of the housing market, I can't bear to throw it away on the crap that I am seeing for sale. Like many people, I occasionally get panic attacks about prices going up further & being priced out completely but deep down common sense tells me to hang back & wait. Whether or not this is a mistake only time will tell.

Of course there's always the chance I could meet a loaded divorcee at one of my Salsa classes!

I don't consider myself an intellectual person, but I'm certainly not thick & I'm very impressed with level of knowledge certain people have on this forum. Quite often, the more complex, economic stuff goes completely over my head but generally I can absorb the 'gist' of what's being discussed & I've surprised myself at how informed & up-to-speed I am on current housing matters...all thanks to this site & others like it.

I feel deeply sorry for young people these days, how on earth they are expected to afford a reasonable property to bring up a family these days is beyond me!

Likewise I know I am going feel sorry for anyone who has panicked, stretched themselves & bought an overvalued property recently (because they genuinely felt they needed to) only to find themselves in negative equity & debt if (or when) the house price correction occurs.

It's a sad state of affairs.

Edited by BearBum
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HOLA4422

Hi,

I have been lurking on this site for 6-9 months or so and have become quite addicted to it!

Thought I should stop being lazy and start contributing to some of these threads.

I've lived in Surrey/ London for the last 20 years and up until fairly recently worked as a Commercial Property Fund Manager for a City institution. As such I like to think I have a pretty good handle on the risk and returns associated with property and other asset classes generally.

I sold my house in May 2004 and decided to rent instead of buying again - my research and gut instinct told me that renting posed little downside risk and buying had a much higher potential risk. Despite the recent "reported" upswing in the residential market during 2006 my views remain unchanged ( ie I am bearish). Like some others on the site I believe the market has been perpetuated by a combination of further relaxation of lending and a bullish media which has fuelled the BTL market in particular over the past year.

I look forward to contributing to some of the threads shortly.

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HOLA4423

Hi,

I have been lurking on this site for 6-9 months or so and have become quite addicted to it!

Thought I should stop being lazy and start contributing to some of these threads.

I've lived in Surrey/ London for the last 20 years and up until fairly recently worked as a Commercial Property Fund Manager for a City institution. As such I like to think I have a pretty good handle on the risk and returns associated with property and other asset classes generally.

I sold my house in May 2004 and decided to rent instead of buying again - my research and gut instinct told me that renting posed little downside risk and buying had a much higher potential risk. Despite the recent "reported" upswing in the residential market during 2006 my views remain unchanged ( ie I am bearish). Like some others on the site I believe the market has been perpetuated by a combination of further relaxation of lending and a bullish media which has fuelled the BTL market in particular over the past year.

I look forward to contributing to some of the threads shortly.

First post , not sure I am doing this right .

Thanks for allowing me onto the board, I hope to be a good contributor

Nice to meet you all

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HOLA4424
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HOLA4425

Hey all,

Been a lurker for a while and think its now time to get a bit more involved.

I started to look into the madly overpriced property game about a year ago & am glad i found this site.. for once im lookin into something important instead of the usual car forums etc (Gettin older now :rolleyes: )

I like this site because its an eye opener from the usual lies that I read & hear about.

I dont think its fair that my generation (im 25) are now in a situation where most of us still

live at home & struggle just to get our own roof over our head... & thats without kids,marriage etc etc etc.....

Anyways have learned everything I know about property from this site & hope to learn

lots more. keep up the good work & hope to contribute to the cause shortly.

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