Bubble Pricker

The Welcome Thread For New Members

1,890 posts in this topic

Welcome Keith.G

The problem with your last statement "don't be mislead that prices are about to crash unless there are definate signs" is that when the are clear signs, it would already be happening. Lots of people tell me (who aren't clued up) that they can't see it happening, but if they could, everyone could.

To base opinions on a report, as you did, why don't you look at the thread on here and argue the points raised. I think once you start to debunk those types of reports you will see it is not worth of a prediction/forecast at all.

The most common argument from those that don't think prices will fall, is the argument that it hasn't yet. But look at the recent stock bubble, how high did that go beyond certain peak predictions. Again, look round this site are argue against the fundermentals.

Why set out merely to debunk such reports (because they don't say there will be a crash)? What if they actually have something to offer.

Apparently the report used figures of no increase in interest rates and wage growth of around 5%pa or 30% in 5 years. I agree it seems interest rates may eventually go up to keep pace with pay rises but the 'equilibrium' between the two figures may still have a similar result.

1) UK interest rates have been kept on hold at 4.5% for the 11th month in a row after the latest meeting of the Bank of England's rate-setting body. Also the previous move was down 0.25%

2) Average earnings increased by 4.1% in the three months to May 06.

3) FTB properties are still being bought

Obviously the report can't be easily dismissed - To do so could mislead people (eg. those who sell believing the market has peaked when it actuaslly has not). The true answer is that no-one knows for sure what will happen. A 50% increase is presumably an estimate. What if the figure were 30% - would that be more believable? It seems that some people with the opinion that the market will fall substantially are attempting to appear as 'gurus' using plenty of their own supposition.

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Wow, there's a lot of new members recently. Hello everyone!

Keith.G, I won't debate this here as this thread is for new members. You can see my comments here.

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Dear Grey Shark

It is all well and good to save but if houses and flats keep going up at the present rate it does not matter how much we save because property will remain out of reach because by the time we have saved 5K then properties have increased by 10K so in real terms we have made a loss as properties have been rising beyond the rates the banks can offer on the High St unfortunately.

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2) Average earnings increased by 4.1% in the three months to May 06.

huh? I don't know anyone why's had a 16% yearly payrise for sometime (especially without moving jobs)

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I've just joined this forum; ironically I heard about it via Saturday's Daily Telegraph article. I've lived in my current home for 29 years and no longer have an outstanding mortgage balance - those, like me, who bought in the 1970's were greatly assisted by negative real interest rates i.e. inflation was > mortgage rate especially when tax relief was included. It has to be a whole lot harder for those buying today as real interest rates are in fact higher and thus those who are forced to pay prevailing (inflated) house prices are stuck with the mortgage for decades.

My opinion is that UK housing market is due for a substantial and lasting correction. Not only has consumer debt risen to unsustainable levels but houses are priced way above the traditional norm of 3x average salaries. There's more - much of UK manufacturing base has moved offshore, to regions where labour is much cheaper. Most of UK 'growth' has recently been achieved in the public sector...an area which is not noted for sizeable export earnings. Against this background it's hardly surprising to note UK trade deficit has averaged around £3bn per month; in fact May 2006's deficit was £6.8bn.

Future prospects for UK trade postion look bleaker as ongoing oil and gas production declines in UK North Sea bite deeper year on year. I've looked at DTI and other Gov't reports of energy trends and forecasts for both demand and production and, even at current energy prices UK is likely to add some £4bn to £5bn to the monthly deficit by 2020 i.e. well within the lifespan of mortgages taken out today. The numbers just don't look sustainable - even if UK could finance a trade deficit of £100bn pa by around 2020 it could only do so by greatly increasing interest rates to attract necessary foreign currency. Rising interest rates would severely test today's over-extended borrowers. Furthermore we won't have to wait until anywhere near 2020 for the trade balance to deteriorate - oil and gas imports alone increased deficit between 1Q05 and 1Q06 by £3.6bn (based on production reported in latest DTI 'Energy Trends').

Now hardly looks the time to be over-extended on house borrowings (or any other type of loan).

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MISFIT , in reply to your 2.59 21st July post , with respect to you , you do not know my posistion , you are just jumping to what you believe are obvious conclusions , you do not know how i have benefited from being a STR .

Have a nice day :D

Edited by grey shark

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Dear Grey Shark

True, I was just making the point that saving now for a deposit is a flawed strategy if prices keep rising faster than the base rates.

Apologies if I caused offence

You have a nice day too

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MISFIT, you didn't cause offence , you obviously misread my post wrong from a few days back , without going on i am a STR , that means SOLD TO RENT , I did not intially do this to beat the housing market , i sold a large detatched house in north london which had no mortgage , the interest i get from my saving accounts from the sale more than pays my rent , and theres money left over , house prices in my area have come down 8% YOY , according to the bbc site and i would say it's even more , if i was trying to sell my old house now , I WOULD NOT GET WHAT I DID FOR IT 2 1/2 years ago , i am in a win win situation and my novice BTL landlord is falling over himself to keep me and my family happy , we now live half a mile away from our old house . Hope this explains ;)

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Hello all, found this forum through the mention in The Independent. Living in Aberdeen which means the property market probably has stronger links to the oil price than the UK housing market. Prices are stupid for FTBs here too so I shall be continuing to rent even though a price crash would not cause the same devastation here so long as Bush and Bliar continue their war mongering.

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A warm welcome for all new members to housepricecrash.co.uk (HPC).

If you are reading this, you are in the right place. You have come to the forum where real people are discussing the state of the UK housing market, free from spin. We hope that you will find a lively discussion here and that you will soon join in yourself.

Please feel free to make your first post in this thread, perhaps a brief introduction of yourself, how you have found this site and why you have joined. Some people also say whether they are a homeowner, first time buyer, looking to buy, sell-to-renter or anything else, but that entirely up to you.

Before you make that first post here, just a few frequently asked questions:

I tried to start a new topic, but it does not appear. What's wrong?

New Members are free to post in any of the existing topics without restrictions. However, new topics started by New Members in the "Main Discussion on House Prices" board are first placed in a queue to be approved by one of the moderators. This will normally take between a few minutes and an hour, but it may take longer at certain times of the day, for example if you post at 3am in the morning. Please do not start the same topic multiple times. Just wait for your started topic to be approved. It will then automatically appear on the forum.

How can I start a new topic without having to go through the moderator approval?

New Members can be upgraded to the "Members" group. Once in the "Members" group, any new topics started by you will appear immediately, without having to go through the moderator approval process. We will normally upgrade New Members to full Members after they have made a resonable number of posts that constructively contribute to the debate. If you think you have done that, you can post your request in the Upgrade Request board (click here to go there now)

People posting here are using all these acronyms. What do they mean?

Here is a (non-complete) list of common acronyms:

VI = Vested Interests (this means lenders, agents, housebuilders, the government, and anyone else who might have an interest in ever rising house prices)

BTL = buy-to-let

FTB = first-time-buyer

STR = sell-to-rent

MEW = mortgage equity withdrawal

Who are the moderators?

The moderators are Webmaster, Bubble Pricker, Charlie the Tramp, and The Oldie

A warm welcome for all new members to housepricecrash.co.uk (HPC).

If you are reading this, you are in the right place. You have come to the forum where real people are discussing the state of the UK housing market, free from spin. We hope that you will find a lively discussion here and that you will soon join in yourself.

Please feel free to make your first post in this thread, perhaps a brief introduction of yourself, how you have found this site and why you have joined. Some people also say whether they are a homeowner, first time buyer, looking to buy, sell-to-renter or anything else, but that entirely up to you.

Before you make that first post here, just a few frequently asked questions:

I tried to start a new topic, but it does not appear. What's wrong?

New Members are free to post in any of the existing topics without restrictions. However, new topics started by New Members in the "Main Discussion on House Prices" board are first placed in a queue to be approved by one of the moderators. This will normally take between a few minutes and an hour, but it may take longer at certain times of the day, for example if you post at 3am in the morning. Please do not start the same topic multiple times. Just wait for your started topic to be approved. It will then automatically appear on the forum.

How can I start a new topic without having to go through the moderator approval?

New Members can be upgraded to the "Members" group. Once in the "Members" group, any new topics started by you will appear immediately, without having to go through the moderator approval process. We will normally upgrade New Members to full Members after they have made a resonable number of posts that constructively contribute to the debate. If you think you have done that, you can post your request in the Upgrade Request board (click here to go there now)

People posting here are using all these acronyms. What do they mean?

Here is a (non-complete) list of common acronyms:

VI = Vested Interests (this means lenders, agents, housebuilders, the government, and anyone else who might have an interest in ever rising house prices)

BTL = buy-to-let

FTB = first-time-buyer

STR = sell-to-rent

MEW = mortgage equity withdrawal

Who are the moderators?

The moderators are Webmaster, Bubble Pricker, Charlie the Tramp, and The Oldie

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Hello all, found this forum through the mention in The Independent. Living in Aberdeen which means the property market probably has stronger links to the oil price than the UK housing market. Prices are stupid for FTBs here too so I shall be continuing to rent even though a price crash would not cause the same devastation here so long as Bush and Bliar continue their war mongering.

Welcome Sandster :)

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MISFIT, you didn't cause offence , you obviously misread my post wrong from a few days back , without going on i am a STR , that means SOLD TO RENT , I did not intially do this to beat the housing market , i sold a large detatched house in north london which had no mortgage , the interest i get from my saving accounts from the sale more than pays my rent , and theres money left over , house prices in my area have come down 8% YOY , according to the bbc site and i would say it's even more , if i was trying to sell my old house now , I WOULD NOT GET WHAT I DID FOR IT 2 1/2 years ago , i am in a win win situation and my novice BTL landlord is falling over himself to keep me and my family happy , we now live half a mile away from our old house . Hope this explains ;)

Looks like you have done well. A YOY fall of 8% is near a crash in my book (8% compounded over 2.5 years ~ 20% fall in prices). Would you like to tell us roughly where this area is so we can announce the first HPC in the country?

A problem with STR is that it incurrs a tax liability on the interest you earn on your capital. So you first have to pay the tax man *before* you even pay your rent. If you are a high rate taxpayer, this can be substantial. Furthermore, you need to reinvest at least some of the interest in order to cover inflation, otherwise you are living off your savings.

Of course, an 8% YOY fall is going to cover this, assuming you buy back in at some point in the future. I do think it is a shame however that there is this gearing against simply using what is effectivly an endowement as a source of rental income. The social benefits of it are great, encouraging mobility and use of housing in reflection of need (and not captial/tax reasons).

I can see a bumper pay day for the Government under your current arrangement because I expect it is also charging you landlord tax on his income as well. Whereas before it was not getting a sniff of your money because it was all tied up in the equity of your house and you lived their tax free. With Stamp Duty to pay when you buy back in, it is getting paid thrice!

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Hello Kernow,

How can I start a new topic without having to go through the moderator approval?

After enough posts you are upgraded from 'new member' to 'member'. This is to stop trolling (posting lots of threads to trash the site).

People posting here are using all these acronyms. What do they mean?

See the glossary at the bottom of the page.

Who are the moderators?

On the main forum you will see "forum led by Moderators", click the link to see who the moderators are.

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If there are any PCS union members there...

Wonderful site, one of the few places where people seem unaffected by the mdness surrounding the housing market.

I've recently had informal conversations with my union rep (I'm a customs officer near Heathrow) and with the planning office at Surrey county council. Both have expressed an interest in an idea I've had of setting up a self-build association for low-cost housing in Surrey for members of the PCS.

If, like me, you don't want a house as an investment, or a pension plan, but simply as a decent place to live, and if you are a civil servant living in the south east, contact me at neilbertuk@yahoo.co.uk. The more people who respond, the greater effect we'll have.

Regards

Neil

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IANGILB , in answer to your recent post , thankyou for your advice / concern , but i'm not going to get into a pointless debate about my circumstances , i am fully aware of all your points , we are very very happy with what we've done and our current posistion is excellant and of course i'm aware i have to pay tax on my interest , it's the basic rate taken at source , the area is Harrow 12 month falls of 8% according to the bbc i would defo confirm this , but i never said compounded 20% , do you know what the letters YOY means ? Thanx again m8 for the advice if i need any more your be the first i'll ask ;)

Edited by grey shark

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IANGILB , in answer to your recent post , thankyou for your advice / concern , but i'm not going to get into a pointless debate about my circumstances , i am fully aware of all your points , we are very very happy with what we've done and our current posistion is excellant and of course i'm aware i have to pay tax on my interest , it's the basic rate taken at source , the area is Harrow 12 month falls of 8% according to the bbc i would defo confirm this , but i never said compounded 20% , do you know what the letters YOY means ? Thanx again m8 for the advice if i need any more your be the first i'll ask ;)

Yes you are right. I did misinterpret YOY. Schoolboy error :(

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IANGILB , there was a time when everyone on here wouldn't of known what YOY meant , well done you for being honest , good luck in whatever you do :)

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Hi

I am a 28 year old girl living and working in London with no hope of ever being able to buy. The stories I read about the last crash are encouraging, but it hasn't reached here yet. I'm hoping that by 2008 the market will have reached a level where I can at least have the opportunity to buy. I believe that the current situation is wholly unsustainable. I'm not happy about it though!

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Hi

I am a 28 year old girl living and working in London with no hope of ever being able to buy. The stories I read about the last crash are encouraging, but it hasn't reached here yet. I'm hoping that by 2008 the market will have reached a level where I can at least have the opportunity to buy. I believe that the current situation is wholly unsustainable. I'm not happy about it though!

I think I speak for all the single males here when I say, welcome! ... and are you really a virgin? ( :P )

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Hi All,

considering I spend so much time on the net it's taken me a while to find this site, probably as I didn't think so many people out there shared by own thoughts on Labours housing/economy lies, whoever I spoke to was either getting rich from the housing boom, so didn't care, or was too blinded by the media to see what was really happenning.

I've been fortunate in securing a HA home, so the cheap rent is allowing me to save up a deposit and I'm not under any pressure to buy, even though I probably could probaly scrape enough for a tiny box house, which I'm not willing to do. I've also been approved for shared ownership, despite not being a 'key worker'. I guess they want me out of our HA home now.

some intresting posts on shared ownership properties being over priced, are these the ones on the open market? the new build SO properties round my way seem if anything, to be discounted, eg Large 3 bed semi for 175K where as similar non SO properties on open market are 200+

Whatever, I'll probably sit tight for another year and see what happens, if there is a crash, even the SO houses will crash.

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Hello all,

I am please to have become part of the House Price Crash community, I am fairly new to forums but enjoy answering questions as I have 28 years of property & general business experience to draw on.

I look forward to an interesting time.

Best wishes to all,

Carl Henry

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Hello,

I've been lurking for a while, reading what people have to say, and it has sunk in! I found myself arguing in work about reasons not to buy, and I was fighting a losing battle. Everyone was saying things like:-

"house prices will go up 50% by 2012"

"prices will never go down"

"the last crash was caused by reccesion, there cannot be another crash"

I gave up arguing. Sometimes I lose hope and start looking at wrongmove, but realise I can't afford anything and have children.

Like Snagger, i live in a dead cheap house to rent, and could buy a rathole in drugville, but why bother?

Even so, no matter how much i save, a family house stays out of reach.

I live, I save, I live in hope....................................................... :huh:

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Lurking since '04, renting since '04.

I am just as certain of HPC as I was then (and of dotcom bust in 1998) but patient wife wants to decorate our child's room.

looking for a house to grow old in, have put in an offer (17% off original) but that has been rejected.

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Hi all

i've found my way here to this prime evolutionary niche via a fruitless and frustrating search for something larger than a shed, at a cost of less than a small island. no intention of speculating / investing... i just want somewhere to live, with a garden i can sit in, and slurp beer away from the CCTVs, traffic, CHAVs, the ex...

i've come to the conclusion too that buying now is madness. basically it's the first time i've ever been in a position close to buying, financially or emotionally. never seen the point... lately i do. but jesus, what a mess. if you think the price earnings graphs are steep, you should see my learning curve :) not yet an amateur economist, but also unlikely to buy a pile of cracks surrounded by bricks, surrounded by crazies, from the first shark i encounter either.

over the last 9 months or so i have been to see something like 40 houses (blind optimism becomes market research). not one would i have considered putting an offer in, to within 80% of the asking price. what a p*sstake.

i feel disposessed. did the Normans write the deeds down on bog roll in felt tip quill, then flush them down the loo? weird that it's taken me to the age of XXX to get this angry. some things should be a basic right imho...

...so i'm saving. i want such a deposit that it makes my mortgage of the 'toytown' kind, rather than 'monopoly' money. my work situation is currently healthy, but will not always be - so i'm basing my plans on the likely scenario, rather than best case method that seems fashionable in the dinner party classes.

punditry amongst the VIs is rife and cynical... i'm so confused. less confused though thanks to the first class research on this site... thank you all!

however i think i'd have to base my 'prediction' (for what it's worth) on just 2 pieces of data -

1) an excellent thread on here mentions this place

- i know it covers the north west only, but that's quite a spread (north staffs, cheshire, manchester..., and probably represents a good sample of rural and urban + suburban england outside the Metropolis. unbelievable results...

2) have uploaded a graph, hopefully it displays. in the history of graphs, have you ever seen one like that before?

i thengyoh

in the process of my house stalking i have actually seen a number of houses go down in increments on WrongMove, in my neighbourhood (mid staffs). an example is one that started at 120k, then down to 115, then 110, then 105.

an offer has been made (which presumably was lower than that...) so something like a 15% reduction. still too expensive, but well on the way!

so i've called off the search for now. more FTBs should do that i reckon... maybe if we could start a FTB rental house share, price the BTLs out, then not buy a thing for 6 months...

i do go on... erm sorry

trendboom.gif

post-5527-1154811737_thumb.jpg

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