mrmagooisagovteconomist Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Prices in Bristol have been insane, unaffordable and clearly unsustainable but I am seeing very large drops (Asking prices) in all areas. Sentiment is on the wane, employment is down and Whiteladies Road is a ghost town. The sooner Students and their Parents feel the squeeze, the sooner some of that lovely BS6 and BS9 stock will become available. I'm a happy renter, living in a quality house with my lovely Missus (Has held firm with my reassurances), with an expanding deposit and nice chunk of the shiny stuff. I withstood years of pressure, mocking and misguided "Advice" from acquaintances and am beginning to feel rather smug as these same friends complain of sleepless nights and have literally no cash available for spending. The mess is coming. I was made to feel like a second class citizen for years, as I always anticipated, the tables are beginning to turn. Keep your doors locked and your 9 iron handy, it is going to become absolute carnage out there. I concur, many of my friends are going literally from job to job with no orders long term (building industry) the only people I know with confidence are a couple of nurses and 2 teachers ! Have witnessed an odd trend, houses reducing by first 5 then 10 k and then being taken off- they were no chain, has anyone else seen this on stuff they are watching ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_James Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Anybody had any viewings recently? If so, what is the general attitude of the Estate Agent and Vendor? Estate Agent - actively encouraging low offers Vendor - still in denial, holding out for way above 2007 prices So bit of a standoff, but EAs definitely much more bearish and helpful than a year ago - low volumes are taking their toll. EAs hoping that economic reality starts to sharpen vendors minds a little more in the next few months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
celica Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I've kept an eye on downend and winterbourne area and houses seem to sell quite quickly So I guess location, price, what's on offer etc. Although a 4 bed detached near me dropped the asking price from £280k I think to £259k or less to shift! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_James Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 (edited) October Land Registry figures for Bristol now out National: MoM: -0.9% YoY: -3.2% South West: MoM: -0.4% YoY: -2.9% City of Bristol: MoM: -0.4% YoY: -4.0% Average price: £167,231 So Bristol has the same MoM decline as last month, but the YoY falls are accelerating (rises must be dropping out from Sep 2010). It has a fall in the average price of £463 MoM. Bristol now falling faster than nationally and the South West. To keep up the habit November Land Registry Figures for Bristol now out National MoM: +0.3% YoY: -1.9% Average price: £160,780 South West MoM: +0.3% YoY: -1.9% Average price: £172,150 City of Bristol MoM: -0.5% YoY: -4.5% Average price: £165,633 So Bristol falls are accelerating, and it is now performing significantly worse than the regional and national trend - the catch up continues. Edited December 30, 2011 by Jimmy_James Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_James Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 So the average Bristol house has fallen £3,964 in the six months since June of this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dothemaths Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 So the average Bristol house has fallen £3,964 in the six months since June of this year Thanks for the heads up. Good to see some reality finally hitting. However numbers on the market have fallen off a cliff in my search area on rightmove. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_James Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I've only just looked at the long run trend data for Bristol - the Land Registry have a 'create your own data' function, that allows you to pull out Bristol specific data over long time periods. Quick summary: Bristol had a very strong boom - rising from £86,188 in October 2000 to a peak of £189,342 in 2007 Then had a very sharp fall to reach a low of £149,359 in April 2009. There was then a pretty healthy bounce back to a peak of £174,127 in October 2010 Since then we've seen slow and then accelerating falls back to the current £165,633 in November 2011. If anyone can be bothered to do percentage changes for these swings it would be interesting. National percentage comparisons (esp the 2009 - 10 bounce) might be illuminating too. I would say we are heading back to the lows of April 2009 at least, as cuts start to kick in, so probably worth FTBs holding fire until then at the earliest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_James Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 October Land Registry figures for Bristol now out National: MoM: -0.9% YoY: -3.2% South West: MoM: -0.4% YoY: -2.9% City of Bristol: MoM: -0.4% YoY: -4.0% Average price: £167,231 So Bristol has the same MoM decline as last month, but the YoY falls are accelerating (rises must be dropping out from Sep 2010). It has a fall in the average price of £463 MoM. Bristol now falling faster than nationally and the South West. Just checking the latest LR data, and these October figures have now been revised downwards. The revised figures are: City of Bristol, October 2011 MoM: -0.7% YoY: -4.4% Average price: £166,501 Needless to say this months falls (November) would have been substantially bigger if this revision hadn't happened.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Untoward Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Average price: £166,501 Needless to say this months falls (November) would have been substantially bigger if this revision hadn't happened.. Thanks for the info Jimmy James. The dam has broken, they are trying to fix it with misinformation across the indices. The revisionary tactics happen every single month. Zoopla has revealed an incredible drop on the asking price for the house my partner and I are renting (BS6) - a 5% drop in 6 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Untoward Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Needless to say this months falls (November) would have been substantially bigger if this revision hadn't happened.. I have done the Maths. The uncooked percentage is a whopping 1% drop for the month (October to November). 0.9555 OR £1598 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_James Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 To keep up the habit November Land Registry Figures for Bristol now out National MoM: +0.3% YoY: -1.9% Average price: £160,780 South West MoM: +0.3% YoY: -1.9% Average price: £172,150 City of Bristol MoM: -0.5% YoY: -4.5% Average price: £165,633 So Bristol falls are accelerating, and it is now performing significantly worse than the regional and national trend - the catch up continues. Bristol December figures now out, here with the comparisons again: National MoM: 0.0% YoY: -1.3% Average price: £160,384 South West MoM: -0.9% YoY: -1.5% Average price: £170,504 Bristol MoM: -0.1% YoY: -3.6% Average price: £165,436 So, monthly and yearly falls slowed down a little - though still worse that the South West and Nationally on a YoY basis. Will be interesting to see what happens when the Seasonal Adjustment starts to be pushing downwards over spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_James Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 In the interests of fairness, the LR have revised November's Bristol fall slightly upwards - it was originally -0.5%, it is now -0.4% Volumes remaining very low Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_James Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Bristol December figures now out, here with the comparisons again: National MoM: 0.0% YoY: -1.3% Average price: £160,384 South West MoM: -0.9% YoY: -1.5% Average price: £170,504 Bristol MoM: -0.1% YoY: -3.6% Average price: £165,436 So, monthly and yearly falls slowed down a little - though still worse that the South West and Nationally on a YoY basis. Will be interesting to see what happens when the Seasonal Adjustment starts to be pushing downwards over spring. Is that time of the month again. Land Reg figures for Bristol for January now out. Below with comparisons: National: MoM: +1.1% YoY: -1.0% Ave price: £161,545 South West MoM: +1.6% YoY: -0.6% Ave Price: £173,090 Bristol MoM: +0.2% YoY: -3.4% Ave Price: £165,510 Small national blip happening, driven by London and happening in the SE & SW. Bristol performing worse than regional and national, but having a small move upwards. Although Land Registry have revised down last month's -0.1% fall to a -0.2% fall, so this months rise would have been less than +0.1% if this adjustment hadn't happened. Volumes remain low (in 400 to 500 monthly band this year up till latest availabile - Nov - compared to pre crunch levels of 700-1000 per month) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lagarde's Drift Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Thank you. Anecdotally I've seen plenty of cheap houses coming up in rubbish areas, but not in the nicer ones. Ditto with rent - it's falling it the crap areas, but holding up in the nicer ones. Just a matter of time I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dothemaths Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Thank you. Anecdotally I've seen plenty of cheap houses coming up in rubbish areas, but not in the nicer ones. Ditto with rent - it's falling it the crap areas, but holding up in the nicer ones. Just a matter of time I think. Yes, my sentiments exactly. I also saw a bump in properties around 250K in 'nice areas' going sold in Jan-Feb which seems to be tailing off .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_James Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Is that time of the month again. Land Reg figures for Bristol for January now out. Below with comparisons: National: MoM: +1.1% YoY: -1.0% Ave price: £161,545 South West MoM: +1.6% YoY: -0.6% Ave Price: £173,090 Bristol MoM: +0.2% YoY: -3.4% Ave Price: £165,510 Small national blip happening, driven by London and happening in the SE & SW. Bristol performing worse than regional and national, but having a small move upwards. Although Land Registry have revised down last month's -0.1% fall to a -0.2% fall, so this months rise would have been less than +0.1% if this adjustment hadn't happened. Volumes remain low (in 400 to 500 monthly band this year up till latest availabile - Nov - compared to pre crunch levels of 700-1000 per month) Feb LR Bristol figures now out. National MoM: +0.1% YoY: -0.6% Average Price: £161,588 South West MoM: +0.1% YoY: +0.1% Average Price: £172,659 Bristol MoM: +0.2% YoY: -2.2% Average Price: £165,360 Although this positive figure is entirely based upon downwards revisions to last months figures. Last months figure was £165,510 (£150 higher than this months), but this has been revised down to £164,981 - an actual fall of £529 or -0.3%!. Cheeky flippin monkeys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Untoward Posted March 27, 2012 Share Posted March 27, 2012 Feb LR Bristol figures now out. National MoM: +0.1% YoY: -0.6% Average Price: £161,588 South West MoM: +0.1% YoY: +0.1% Average Price: £172,659 Bristol MoM: +0.2% YoY: -2.2% Average Price: £165,360 Although this positive figure is entirely based upon downwards revisions to last months figures. Last months figure was £165,510 (£150 higher than this months), but this has been revised down to £164,981 - an actual fall of £529 or -0.3%!. Cheeky flippin monkeys. Asking prices seem to have gone even more mental since Christmas, I am specifically looking at BS6 & BS2 (Cotham & Kingsdown). Based on the February figures, they cannot be shifting. Indeed, I have been checking the old Property Bee and there are huge amounts of SSTC from January. They are not selling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_James Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Asking prices seem to have gone even more mental since Christmas, I am specifically looking at BS6 & BS2 (Cotham & Kingsdown). Based on the February figures, they cannot be shifting. Indeed, I have been checking the old Property Bee and there are huge amounts of SSTC from January. They are not selling. Know what you mean. Kingsdown has got far far ahead of itself in terms of pricing - places there are now as, and sometimes more, expensive than Clifton. It has some nice housing stock there, but it's still on the edge of some touch and go areas. I like it, but would you pay 3/4 of a million to live within a stones throw of a crack den? Kingsdown and Montpellier will be interesting case studies for the durability of post boom gentrification, particularly if Stokie gets more sketchy and the riots become more regular. Will be interesting to see if the middle class start to get worried by social tensions again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Untoward Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Know what you mean. Kingsdown has got far far ahead of itself in terms of pricing - places there are now as, and sometimes more, expensive than Clifton. It has some nice housing stock there, but it's still on the edge of some touch and go areas. I like it, but would you pay 3/4 of a million to live within a stones throw of a crack den? Kingsdown and Montpellier will be interesting case studies for the durability of post boom gentrification, particularly if Stokie gets more sketchy and the riots become more regular. Will be interesting to see if the middle class start to get worried by social tensions again. Absolutely spot on. There are beautiful houses in Kingsdown but it is bordered by dodge on 3 sides. It kicked off outside the Hare on the Hill last year. This year it may get even further up the hill (about 50 feet). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy_James Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 It kicked off outside the Hare on the Hill last year. This year it may get even further up the hill (about 50 feet). Sounds fun. Do you know what happened? Incidently, a house right next to the Hare is currently up for sale for 650k, after they tried (and failed) to sell it for 690k two years ago: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-37249742.html On the Somerset Street tip, a friend who lives (renting) there said that last year a bunch of Somali girls on their walk back from school kicked in the front door of a house after getting into an argument with the owner. Just a few doors down from someone trying to sell a house for over £800k. Clifton prices, but not Clifton behaviour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 On the Somerset Street tip, a friend who lives (renting) there said that last year a bunch of Somali girls on their walk back from school kicked in the front door of a house after getting into an argument with the owner. Just a few doors down from someone trying to sell a house for over £800k. Clifton prices, but not Clifton behaviour. What is it with Somalis and Bristol? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashedOutAndBurned Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 I think Bristol's an odd one. Yes, there have been modest falls in the downturn but then little pockets of upturn, which I personally put down to younger people preferring urban living to the Sadly Broke experience and places like Easton becoming acceptable places to live and attracting a middle-class influx. Even Easton is getting expensive with Greenbank, allegedly the 'nicer' bit, full of terraces approaching 200k. The same process seems to be happening in the East - lots of economically-cleansed FTBs and renters going to St George/Redfield/Church Road, which is just showing mild gentrification with a token trendy cafe and non-threatening refurbed pubs amid the greasy takeaways and newsagents. So far prices haven't gone the way of Easton, St Werburghs, etc. - biggest downside is proximity to Barton/Lawrence Hill - by far the worse bits of Briz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lagarde's Drift Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Incidently, a house right next to the Hare is currently up for sale for 650k, after they tried (and failed) to sell it for 690k two years ago: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-37249742.html Ahahahaha It's right next to Jamaica Street!!! This wonderment of planning is right next door!!! I generally don't feel safe walking there in the day time, much less at night!!! http://g.co/maps/p6afh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ames Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Ahahahaha It's right next to Jamaica Street!!! This wonderment of planning is right next door!!! I generally don't feel safe walking there in the day time, much less at night!!! http://g.co/maps/p6afh Nice area! http://www.crime-statistics.co.uk/Postcode/BS28LJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lagarde's Drift Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 (edited) Nice area! http://www.crime-statistics.co.uk/Postcode/BS28LJ Yes it is, unfortunately you can't afford it, it's £600k for a house down there. p.s. If I had the time I might wander around using Streetview to see what sort of denizens are stalking the streets around there. There is a reason that the Compass Centre is located on Jamaica Street. http://www.bristol.gov.uk/node/2572 Brilliant! http://g.co/maps/6jf8g Gotta get back to work now Edited April 16, 2012 by Lagarde's Drift Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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