Vespasian

The "irish House Hunter" Report Sweepstake

2,197 posts in this topic

With the TDGTTS report due out over the weekend, the question on everyones lips is how many reductions this week? 600? 700? 800? 900? 1000+?

Well in an effort to amuse myself this evening I have started the TDGTTS sweepstake!

Simply put forward the number of reductions you think will appear this weekend. Don't be shy!

The closest winning entry will be entered into the rolling hall of fame, and receive a fantasy property bonus each week as shown below

[img]http://app2.propertynews.com/images/medium/11631244.jpg[/img]

[quote]Offers Around
£ 40,000
Potential Development site at side (subject to planning permission)
We are delighted to offer this investment opportunity with a superb corner site with the potential for a (DOG KENNEL) dwelling subject to necessary approvals. A preliminary plan has been created(ON THE BACK OF A BEER MAT) detailing the proposed dwelling. The property is located off the Clandeboye Road close to all transport links, amenities and Bangor Town Centre.[/quote]
[url="http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r=1&c=395&s=39831549&i=366&p=PNC208901"]http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...amp;p=PNC208901[/url]

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haha, great idea! I'm feeling like it'll be a naughty, nine hundred and nineteen - 919! :lol:

btw that re-worded ad cracked me up! haha! Edited by Traktion

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[quote name='doccyboy' post='1004272' date='Mar 8 2008, 04:20 PM']Its up 803 reductions

[url="http://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com/PropertynewsNI/08.03.08.htm"]http://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com/Prope...NI/08.03.08.htm[/url][/quote]
[img]http://constitutionclub.files.wordpress.com/2007/08/champagne-4.jpg[/img]
[size=5]SUBBY WINS![/size]

Congratulations on your property win too. What do you plan to build on the site, a wendy house???? ;)

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Noticed the 2nd house from the bottom 48 Bally Rd Ballymena was reduced last week but has been put back up in price. wounder why :unsure:

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[quote name='doccyboy' post='1004475' date='Mar 8 2008, 08:42 PM']Don't you read the Belfast Tele? The market's turned - evrything is hunky dory ;)[/quote]
Congrats Subby.

I wonder will the market level off? Then I look at the history of other housing bubbles for the answer.

:unsure: Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee......!!!!!!

:D

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[quote name='doccyboy' post='1004475' date='Mar 8 2008, 08:42 PM']Don't you read the Belfast Tele? The market's turned - evrything is hunky dory ;)[/quote]
I haven't read today's tele - is there a link doocyboy?

I was looking at a graph compaing 'all UK' HP data vs. NI on Bosco's HP falls poll and there is (or rather [i]was[/i]) some correlation between 'all UK' HP avg. data and NI HP avg. data. (see [url="http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=7095"]here[/url])

As you can see both data sets rise at a similar rate and you can see how NI misses the boom and bust of the late 80's / early 90's.

Anyway, another way of looking at comparing these two sets of data is to calculate the difference (£) for each quarter and plot this difference (NI minus all UK) against time (see below)

[img]http://myweb.tiscali.co.uk/irishbottle/site_images/UKvsNIdiff.jpg[/img]


Again you can see the effect of NI 'missing' the early boom and bust, and you can also see the difference of the last three years. Interestingly the last 'optimum' time to buy here when compared to 'all of the UK' was 2004.

data = natwide quarterly nominal avg. HPs post 73

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[quote name='prophet-profit' post='1004493' date='Mar 8 2008, 09:14 PM']Again you can see the effect of NI 'missing' the early boom and bust, and you can also see the difference of the last three years. Interestingly the last 'optimum' time to buy here when compared to 'all of the UK' was 2004.

data = natwide quarterly nominal avg. HPs post 73[/quote]
WoW!

Can I just say say... thanks PP.

So what do you think the return to trend/normal is going to look like?

What will that 'return to trend' mean for house prices in Northern Ireland?

Can you factor in the likely recession in the USA, Republic of Ireland and UK?

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[quote name='Belfast Boy' post='1004502' date='Mar 8 2008, 09:25 PM']WoW!

Can I just say say... thanks PP.

So what do you think the return to trend/normal is going to look like?

What will that 'return to trend' mean for house prices in Northern Ireland?

Can you factor in the likely recession in the USA, Republic of Ireland and UK?[/quote]
Hi BB

My thoughts on the 'return to trend' are dependent on two different answers;

The first 'answer' would see the initial [i]correction[/i] of the rapid 'spike', the second answer would focus on the underlying performance of the UK housing market in general.

For me, the second answer is far more harder to quantify (or at least [i]try[/i] and quantify) as this is dependent on far more variables. I hear what your saying about the likely recession and the fact that the UK and Ireland have current account defecits 'down' there with the US does not help. Sometimes, I try and play 'devils advocate' to see where the answer may lie and look at the 'positive' aspects of NI future economy etc. But rather than go into that now (I am quite 'bullish' on Belfast in the [i]long [/i]term!), I have to acknowledge the seemingly oncoming recession and the USA's in-ability (thus-far) to deal with it. Fragile times indeed :( .

Sorry, if the answers are a bit vague, but I [i]think[/i] I know what's going to happen to NI HPs in the short term, it's the long term that I cannot get to grips with because of the unprecedented times we find ourselves in.

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[quote name='prophet-profit' post='1004513' date='Mar 8 2008, 09:40 PM']Hi BB

My thoughts on the 'return to trend' are dependent on two different answers;

The first 'answer' would see the initial [i]correction[/i] of the rapid 'spike', the second answer would focus on the underlying performance of the UK housing market in general.

For me, the second answer is far more harder to quantify (or at least [i]try[/i] and quantify) as this is dependent on far more variables. I hear what your saying about the likely recession and the fact that the UK and Ireland have current account defecits 'down' there with the US does not help. Sometimes, I try and play 'devils advocate' to see where the answer may lie and look at the 'positive' aspects of NI future economy etc. But rather than go into that now (I am quite 'bullish' on Belfast in the [i]long [/i]term!), I have to acknowledge the seemingly oncoming recession and the USA's in-ability (thus-far) to deal with it. Fragile times indeed :( .

Sorry, if the answers are a bit vague, but I [i]think[/i] I know what's going to happen to NI HPs in the short term, it's the long term that I cannot get to grips with because of the unprecedented times we find ourselves in.[/quote]
Good answer!

I know my questions are impossible to answer.

Uncharted territory?

I know I may seem extreme on this website.

However, you are one of the posters I have always respected here.

Sorry if my previous arguments with other people have annoyed you.

I have been told that I am very dogmatic in my opinions!

Sorry.

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[quote name='Belfast Boy' post='1004519' date='Mar 8 2008, 09:51 PM']Good answer!

I know my questions are impossible to answer.

Uncharted territory?

I know I may seem extreme on this website.

However, you are one of the posters I have always respected here.

Sorry if my previous arguments with other people have annoyed you.

I have been told that I am very dogmatic in my opinions!

Sorry.[/quote]

ce la vie

Looking back on 'things' here a few weeks ago, I was a bit annoyed with what happened about you-know-who ;) , he did bring balance in a way which made me question things from a different angle. But, in retrospect, I do acknowledge that he could be a bit headstrong with his opinion ;)

After my business with Vicmac, I was (or am) trying to diffuse the 'personal' side of arguments on here, but I am not a mod and [b]I[/b] need to get some perspective from time to time as well!!

I personally don't think you are 'extreme', as any [b]NI bear[/b] here knows about house price bubbles more than most. TBH, I agree with a lot of what you say, but I do wonder whether the affordability ratios of the last 30 years are being replaced by 'newer' ones as a result of prolonged low interest rates. But having said (or written) that, I read a quote today that was quite fitting; House Prices are determined by what the banks are willing to lend - credit crunch anyone!!

I have said it before and will say it again, the quality of posters on the NI Forum is unsurpassed on any other area of hpc (% posts per poster). just my humble opinion of course :rolleyes:

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[quote name='prophet-profit' post='1004531' date='Mar 8 2008, 10:13 PM']House Prices are determined by what the banks are willing to lend - credit crunch anyone!![/quote]
Uncharted territory?

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[quote name='Belfast Boy' post='1004540' date='Mar 8 2008, 10:22 PM']Uncharted territory?[/quote]
Indeed

and for the first time in my life I bought some gold this week. I need to start going on some other forums!! maybe the singing pig will sort me out :lol:

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[quote name='prophet-profit' post='1004545' date='Mar 8 2008, 10:26 PM']Indeed

and for the first time in my life I bought some gold this week. I need to start going on some other forums!! maybe the singing pig will sort me out :lol:[/quote]
Now that is scary! lol

I have read the entire gold thread. I really miss it :(

Gold was £330 an troy ounce in August 2007.

Now trading at £484. High £497.

That is why the inflation, deflation, stagflation argument is so important to me.

My personal opinion is that western governments will print money (inflation) like never before! (nothing to stop them - there is no gold standard!)

Example = Northern Rock. Anyone heard of them?

Are commodities the next bubble? Edited by Belfast Boy

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[quote name='Belfast Boy' post='1004580' date='Mar 8 2008, 10:45 PM']Now that is scary! lol

I have read the entire gold thread. I really miss it :(

Gold was £330 an troy ounce in August 2007.

Now trading at £484. High £497.

That is why the inflation, deflation, stagflation argument is so important to me.

My personal opinion is that they will print money (inflation) like never before! (nothing to stop them - there is no gold standard!)

Are commodities the next bubble?[/quote]

I have to be very careful here :unsure: but you know that thread still exists somewhere else, if you find one of Dr. Bubbs posts, he has his own website you know.........

re - gold / commodities / inflation / deflation etc.

My thoughts are that [i]maybe[/i] a little bit of gold can serve as insurance policy against rampant inflation, hopefully it will not come to this, like i say insurance (I am not a gold bug so please note everyone I will not be telling you to buy gold in every other post!)

I [i]hope[/i] that a house price deflation will not be accompanied by rampant commodity inflation, I [i]hope[/i] that cash will be 'king' soon enough. However, the [i]seemingly[/i] unstoppable rise in oil prices and the perverse situation that exists in the US with regard to FEDs option of trashing the dollar as the worldwide currency in an effort to save their economy worries me

Never have the words 'balanced portfolio' been so important as now IMHO

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[quote name='prophet-profit' post='1004605' date='Mar 8 2008, 11:00 PM']I have to be very careful here :unsure:[/quote]
Big Brother is watching us :ph34r:

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[quote name='Vespasian' post='1004274' date='Mar 8 2008, 04:26 PM'][img]http://constitutionclub.files.wordpress.com/2007/08/champagne-4.jpg[/img]
[size=5]SUBBY WINS![/size]

Congratulations on your property win too. What do you plan to build on the site, a wendy house???? ;)[/quote]


I'd like to thank my ex-wife, my cat, my daughter, my girlfriend, my agent, my bottle of red which is a cheeky number and above all Mystic Meg for her insider tip ;)

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[quote name='doccyboy' post='1004500' date='Mar 8 2008, 09:24 PM']Sorry PP I was being facetious about the Tele. :([/quote]

doh! - I can see that [i]now[/i]!

I was getting too excited about the prospect of reading HC's next instalment of property surreality!

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OK Peeps, lets have some guesses for this weekend coming!

Winner(s) so far:
[i][b]Subby[/b][/i] 8th March

this weeks fantasy property
[b]21 Queen Victoria Gardens, Belfast, Antrim , BT15 3LW[/b] only 69k (reduced from 89k)
[url="http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r=1&c=4&s=40348082&i=2&p=PNC181372"]http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...amp;p=PNC181372[/url]
[img]http://app2.propertynews.com/images/medium/9416617.jpg[/img]
Requiring complete refurbishment works this home is not for the faint hearted, however, with a little imagination or hard work(HARD WORK I THINK) this once fine period home will make a superb 2 bedroom family home. The accommodation comprises 2 bedrooms, 2 reception rooms, kitchen and bathroom. (NO ROOF!)The property is sold as seen with all contents remaining.(INCLUDING THE BREEZE BLOCK WINDOW EFFECT) This is a home with superb potential making immediate viewing a must.
* Period Town Terrace
* Requiring Total Refurbishment
* 2 Bedrooms
* 2 Reception Rooms
* Kitchen
* Bathroom
* Front Lawn
* No Roof
* Ever Improving Location
* Ideal Investment (FOR FOOLS)
***This property is enabled for the BT Home Hub***(OH THANK GOD FOR THAT) Edited by Vespasian

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