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stooboy

Is Scotland Immune To Hpc ?

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Newish here, first main post,

little about myself, lost job about 5 years ago when silicon glen went out the window, (dvd players for £7 and the like cant really be made in the uk tbh). Moved in with parents again, retrained at uni, got a job last year, started looking to buy, feeling a bit paniced like most ftb, scared at the rapid rise of house prices, being mature student i got resonable student loan, and with my low outgoings was able to retain the vast majority of it for a deposit on a house. When i got my job, i had worked one day, and decided to test the water and find out about mortgages, i heard about northern rock and called them, based on my one days working, they where happy to offer me a 6x salary mortgage based on purely a photocopy of my contract, however, i was happy to wait till id worked 6months or so and got some stability, but norther rock advisor had other ideas, frequently calling my modile through the week and at the weekends till i blatently told them to f off.

When norther rock did "go under" i started mentioning to friends and collegues that a hpc may be on the cards, but again was like fighting a brick wall, none would hear of it, increasingly now though people agree that there is a "slow down" but that scotland is already very cheap for property and that there will be no price drops here.

The reason for my post is the current front page news article on this site: [url="http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid=NEWS&articlekey=8865"]http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid...articlekey=8865[/url]


[quote][b]Scotland records the biggest house price rises in 2007 [/b]......

House prices increased in all regions during 2007. Scotland recorded the biggest price rises with a 13.1% increase; the only double digit increase. House prices in Scotland rose more quickly than the UK average for the fifth successive year. A key factor driving the increase in house prices in Scotland has been its relative affordability. Scottish house prices continue to be the most affordable in the UK. At £144,897, the average price of a house in Scotland is 26% less than the UK average of £197,071.[/quote]

My experience of watching the properties for sale are that there have been moderate drops, and many more fixed price properties, most articles i have read and anectodals i have read on here apply to the english market, i just wondered if any other scots had an opinion on wether the scottish property market will be affected in the same way as england.

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Not sure who you're talking to about property already being "very cheap". One bed flats for single ftbs anywhere on the south side of Glasgow (traditionally a starting point) are currently 4/5/6 times avg ftb income I would say. Some new-builds might look affordable, but the construction standards went to shit some years ago.

Have a look at how much less people get paid in Scotland. Chap I know is earning 11k(!!) working in the service industry and he's in his 20s. I left 4 years ago as earning 22k in IT (when a new start I interviewed said "I won't work here for less than 12k" - you know the bosses are just going to hire cheap labour, good though they may be) .

I couldn't buy anywhere not ex-council or sheds without taking on more debt than I wanted (plus the industry was oversubscribed), so moved to London to work. Instantly doubled my salary for the same job, but the cost of living was maybe only 20% higher. Currently around earning around 3.5 times as much as I would be able to in Glasgow and saving. Will go back in a couple of years when the recession has shaken investors out of the homes market and I'll do some other career.

If you work for the government or council am sure you'll be alright, and if you are able to stay in the place for 5 or 6 years to make any drop in price negligible I'd go for it.

ps have also seen many more fixed prices advertised. Surely a sign that the market is broken and on the way onto its ****. Maybe wishful thinking but if you can't borrow 6x your salary today, who will buy a FTB property when everyone and their dog knows BTL is currently a losing game for new entrants. Edited by stillill

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Cheap? Are you kidding? Crappy one bed flats in Gorgie (which, despite supposedly having gentrified is more of a dump than it was ten years ago) are £125,000 and upwards. Ten years ago they were £25-30,000.

According to Halifax, Montrose is still cheap. This is true, I looked at a place there last year, quite nice, three bedrooms over two floors, on top of a shop. Two of the rooms had eves and it overlooked a park Fixed price of £75,000. I got quite excited and was all for leaping in and buying it until I realised the shop it sat above had been closed and empty for years, and the rest of the block was utterly derelict and empty! Quite a large block too. Then I noticed the same was true all over Montrose - derelict, boarded up property everywhere. Sad, because it could definitely be a really nice place. Perhaps it's one massive [i]investment and development opporutinuty[/i] and Aberdeen's prosperity will pull it all up. I wouldn't want to be the first person into a derelict block taking that gamble, not unless it was radically cheaper.

I think there's this idea that if it's cheaper than London, it's a bargain and has to go up, which isn't necessarily true.

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[quote name='Fergie' post='933218' date='Jan 19 2008, 09:32 PM']Cheap? Are you kidding? Crappy one bed flats in Gorgie (which, despite supposedly having gentrified is more of a dump than it was ten years ago) are £125,000 and upwards. Ten years ago they were £25-30,000.

According to Halifax, Montrose is still cheap. This is true, I looked at a place there last year, quite nice, three bedrooms over two floors, on top of a shop. Two of the rooms had eves and it overlooked a park Fixed price of £75,000. I got quite excited and was all for leaping in and buying it until I realised the shop it sat above had been closed and empty for years, and the rest of the block was utterly derelict and empty! Quite a large block too. Then I noticed the same was true all over Montrose - derelict, boarded up property everywhere. Sad, because it could definitely be a really nice place. Perhaps it's one massive [i]investment and development opporutinuty[/i] and Aberdeen's prosperity will pull it all up. I wouldn't want to be the first person into a derelict block taking that gamble, not unless it was radically cheaper.

I think there's this idea that if it's cheaper than London, it's a bargain and has to go up, which isn't necessarily true.[/quote]

I don't know about 'cheap' but there are still affordable flats for sale in Aberdeen. The problem is that any flats that are affordable are in areas like Torry that a lot of people aren't keen to live in. :blink:

You can still get a 1-bed flat in Torry or similar areas for offers over ca. £70-75k (realistically the actual purchase price would be at least 15% over asking price) so the *minimum* price for a 1-bed flat in Aberdeen would be around £80k.

A single person on £20k pa would just about be able to afford that. A couple would need to have a combined income of around £23k.

Rents in Aberdeen have gone crazy recently. A bog-standard 1-bed flat now rents for at least £500pcm. That's before Council Tax! :o

If you don't mind living in Torry or similar areas then Aberdeen still offers affordable 1-bed flats which are cheaper to buy than rent.

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[quote name='aberdeen07' post='933631' date='Jan 20 2008, 11:50 AM']If you don't mind living in Torry or similar areas then Aberdeen still offers affordable 1-bed flats which are cheaper to buy than rent.[/quote]

yes i have noticed the ruff areas are very cheap, same in dundee where im looking to buy althoug montrose not to far away... hmm

Still seeing 2 bed flats going for offers over 120k in not great areas though, that would be a 6 times salary mortgage for me, which im not prepared to do. I do have patience on my side, and not under pressure anymore from continually rising prices.

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i find it funny that in Scotland there is so many boarded up houses.

I live in Aberdeen and have sensed that a lot of the young people here don't want to buy here - too much hassle really and prices are a bit high.

Rents though are soaring in Aberdeen make no mistake.
Rents in the rest of Scotland are static though.

Aberdeen is special in that it has the oil and gas and that can't be relocated.
But Scotland's economy will be difficult to maintain in the future.
I can't see the future being bright for Scotland in the next few years.

The high number of civil service jobs will help cushion the blows though

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hey guys i recieved this today
Dear Wilsons Auctions Customers,

Please note sellers have provided guide price reductions of the following lots for our forthcoming T uesday 5th February 2008 Land & Property Auction...



LO T 6 - KEIR HARDIE HILL CUMNOCK GUIDE NOW £46,000+ (J & E SHEPHARD VALUA T ION £57,000)



LO T 11 - KIRKLAND CRESCEN T DALRY GUIDE NOW £56,000+ (3 BEDROOM HOUSE)



LO T 14 - 182 NEWLANDS RD GLASGOW GUIDE NOW £62,000+ (2 BEDROOM FLA T )



LO T 15 - BLACKS T OUN OVAL PAISLEY GUIDE NOW £48,000+ (REPOSSESED IN T HE PAS T )



LO T 20 - FOR T H S T REE T GLASGOW GUIDE NOW £72,000+ (J & E SHEPHARD VAL £90,000)



LO T 22 - LANCEFIELD QUAY GLASGOW GUIDE NOW £149,000+ (JUNE 2005 SOLD £226,000)



LO T 26 - OVERDALE GARDENS GLASGOW GUIDE NOW £66,000+ (PLANNING FOR 3 S T OREY T OWNHOUSE)



LO T 30 - 7 HOWA T S T GLASGOW GUIDE NOW £55,000+ (J & E SHEPHARD VAL £65,000)



LO T 31 - SINCLAIR S T GREENOCK GUIDE NOW £56,000+ (PREVIOUSLY SOLD £179,000)



LO T 34 - ORBACK ORKNEY GUIDE NOW £47,000+ (SPEC T ACULOR VIEWS AND ELEVA T ED SI T E)



As always full details of entries are available on our property website…

[url="http://www.wilsonsauctions.com/property_scotland.asp"]http://www.wilsonsauctions.com/property_scotland.asp[/url]



Regards
blah blah
but what i find most disconcerning is when i mention the possibility of a house price crash at work especially to one friend who is one of the kindest most compassionate people i know he practically assaults me with degrogatory comments, and tells me i am delluded and obsessed!!! pot kettle black etc scary stuff though as people have much more than money invested in there hooses.

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Scotland ain't cheap relative to local wages, most people can only see prices stabilising never falling, as if we are immune to global forces prices will fall hard same as everywhere else.

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It's as much about the rate of price rises as it is about the cheapness of the property in Scotland. Some parts of Scotland haven't seen much HPI relative to the rest of the country and that's what brings down the average house price here. The HPI in Edinburgh, on the other hand, has been on the scale of London or worse considering what base it rose from. Prices have tripled in most areas of Edinburgh and that is not the kind of growth that can be sustained. There are flats near me (2-bed) that were selling for about 60k ten years ago (or less) and are now on the market for 300k. With that kind of price rise, falls are guaranteed because clearly there is speculation involved rather than local growth and wage inflation.

Cities like Dundee might not be so hard hit as the price rises haven't been as extreme and they haven't been affected as much by investors coming in. Aberdeen has seen some unsustainable rises too though (probably because of oil boom as much as HPI) so it's probably due for a fall, depending on how the oil industry fares. Personally, I would say you would need a very secure job and good-sized deposit to buy in Scotland now as it won't be immune to HPI. Edited by An Bearin Bui

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[quote name='cannonfodder' post='946501' date='Jan 28 2008, 08:46 PM']hey guys i recieved this today
Dear Wilsons Auctions Customers,

Please note sellers have provided guide price reductions of the following lots for our forthcoming T uesday 5th February 2008 Land & Property Auction...



LO T 6 - KEIR HARDIE HILL CUMNOCK GUIDE NOW £46,000+ (J & E SHEPHARD VALUA T ION £57,000)



LO T 11 - KIRKLAND CRESCEN T DALRY GUIDE NOW £56,000+ (3 BEDROOM HOUSE)



LO T 14 - 182 NEWLANDS RD GLASGOW GUIDE NOW £62,000+ (2 BEDROOM FLA T )



LO T 15 - BLACKS T OUN OVAL PAISLEY GUIDE NOW £48,000+ (REPOSSESED IN T HE PAS T )



LO T 20 - FOR T H S T REE T GLASGOW GUIDE NOW £72,000+ (J & E SHEPHARD VAL £90,000)



LO T 22 - LANCEFIELD QUAY GLASGOW GUIDE NOW £149,000+ (JUNE 2005 SOLD £226,000)



LO T 26 - OVERDALE GARDENS GLASGOW GUIDE NOW £66,000+ (PLANNING FOR 3 S T OREY T OWNHOUSE)



LO T 30 - 7 HOWA T S T GLASGOW GUIDE NOW £55,000+ (J & E SHEPHARD VAL £65,000)



LO T 31 - SINCLAIR S T GREENOCK GUIDE NOW £56,000+ (PREVIOUSLY SOLD £179,000)



LO T 34 - ORBACK ORKNEY GUIDE NOW £47,000+ (SPEC T ACULOR VIEWS AND ELEVA T ED SI T E)



As always full details of entries are available on our property website…

[url="http://www.wilsonsauctions.com/property_scotland.asp"]http://www.wilsonsauctions.com/property_scotland.asp[/url]



Regards
blah blah
but what i find most disconcerning is when i mention the possibility of a house price crash at work especially to one friend who is one of the kindest most compassionate people i know he practically assaults me with degrogatory comments, and tells me i am delluded and obsessed!!! pot kettle black etc scary stuff though as people have much more than money invested in there hooses.[/quote]


Be interesting to see how those properties sell, in ayrshire theres a standoff between sellers and buyers, time will tell when sellers give way! lots of properties going to fixed prices!

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[quote name='shuggyboy24' post='951898' date='Feb 1 2008, 01:04 PM']Be interesting to see how those properties sell, in ayrshire theres a standoff between sellers and buyers, time will tell when sellers give way! lots of properties going to fixed prices![/quote]

Like wise seen a lot of fixed prices have even seen one streets prices go up in offers over :|


[b]Scots property market bucks trend [/b]
[url="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7231787.stm"]http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7231787.stm[/url]

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House Price Boom over - but no crash.


[url="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7245255.stm"]http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7245255.stm[/url]

I would expect that even if we don't get a sensational crash, prices will overshoot going downwards. That combined with rising inflation and the re-emergence of a 'buyers market' will bring about affordable property for those who are willing and able to search out a bargain. My tuppence worth.

D

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Well, check this out....

[url="http://www.wilsonsauctions.com/property_details_scotland_new.asp?id=41625"]Glasgow flat - sold in 2007 for 196k - repossessed - yours for 115k![/url]

Doesn't look like too bad value - not that i know the area, of course when it's sold it'll do wonders for the HPI stats!!

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[quote name='Fishy' post='998284' date='Mar 4 2008, 02:50 PM']Well, check this out....

[url="http://www.wilsonsauctions.com/property_details_scotland_new.asp?id=41625"]Glasgow flat - sold in 2007 for 196k - repossessed - yours for 115k![/url]

Doesn't look like too bad value - [b]not that i know the area[/b], of course when it's sold it'll do wonders for the HPI stats!![/quote]
utter hellhole

check out previous thread

[url="http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=68081&hl=GLASGOW"]http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...&hl=GLASGOW[/url]

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Hey,

I have been watching Dundee and Angus for about a year now, been loads of fixed prices going on but no drops until about a week ago, I started to see some drops in areas, usually around 10k, but thats just the start.

One street I noticed which has about 5 identical 2 bedroom flats in ok area over looking a park has prices rangeing from 140k to 90k, one of them was offers over 110k but another went on for 107k so the 110k property dropped its price to offers over 99k.

Also some areas outside Dundee dropping, and also I hear from friends stirlingshire going simmilar way.



2 Baxter Park Terrace Dundee 88865 - 2 Baxter Park Terrace DUNDEE DD4 6NL [L5] ~ Flat 2 bedrooms Offers Over £139,000
1/L, 5 Baxter Park Terrace Dundee 88498 - 1/L, 5 Baxter Park Terrace DUNDEE DD4 6NL [L5] ~ Flat 2 bedrooms Offers Over £135,000
G/R 11 Baxter Park Terrace Dundee 88228 - G/R 11 Baxter Park Terrace DUNDEE DD4 6NN [L5] ~ Flat 2 bedrooms Offers Over £107,000
13 Baxter Park Terrace Dundee 88371 - 13 Baxter Park Terrace DUNDEE DD4 6NW [L5] ~ Flat 2 bedrooms Offers Over £99,000
8 Baxter Park Terrace Dundee 88713 - 8 Baxter Park Terrace DUNDEE DD4 6NN [L5] ~ Flat 2 bedrooms Offers Over £90,000
[url="http://www.tspc.co.uk/results.asp?area=0%23&type=1000.1255%231000.1255&minprice=&maxprice=&bedrooms=0%23255&daterangestart=all&streetname=baxter+park&searchtype=traditional&submitbutton=Search%21"]TSPC baxter park road, [/url]

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I read recently that the highest LTV ratios in the UK are in Scotland and parts of the north of England. That's where the cracks will appear first.

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OMG, despite every other headline today saying houses dropping like stones in a wolrd of glass, the Beeb continues to talk up the scottish market...

[url="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7347203.stm"]http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7347203.stm[/url]

[url="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7346564.stm"]http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7346564.stm[/url]

I personally think its a load of ********, ive started to see the price drops

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I agree there is nothing selling in North Ayrshire, and the average salary versus average house prices is way over the 3.5 multiple.

In addition I have never seen so many properties with "to let" signs in the window completely unheard of. Some of the areas where obviously have been bought as buy to let will be the first to start a real crash, how long can these buy to let landlords subsidise the mortgages.

I dont know why they keep talking up the Scottish property market - maybe they fear the biggest crash here.

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I’ve know idea how RICs are calculating rises – I’m only seeing drops (albeit few at the moment) or changes from o/o to fixed price.

Could it be a function of desperate sellers changing from an offers over price of £x (anticipating a delusional +10 to +20% or more bid) to a fixed price of £x+10%?

Hey presto a rise in price (whereas in fact it’s a sign of desperation in a sealed bid system).

In a world wide property crash, do these charlatans really think that Scotland is immune?

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[quote name='Captain Cavey' post='1072417' date='Apr 15 2008, 10:21 PM']I’ve know idea how RICs are calculating rises – I’m only seeing drops (albeit few at the moment) or changes from o/o to fixed price.

Could it be a function of desperate sellers changing from an offers over price of £x (anticipating a delusional +10 to +20% or more bid) to a fixed price of £x+10%?

Hey presto a rise in price (whereas in fact it’s a sign of desperation in a sealed bid system).

In a world wide property crash, do these charlatans really think that Scotland is immune?[/quote]

Thats a good point captain, to be fair, most of the properties i have been watching havent been selling, i wonder how the volume of properties moved during the last 3 months compares to that of previous years, rather than a comparrison of the cost, perhaps scotland is a couple of months behing the main trend, and we will start to see more significant drops as the crunch begins to bite in over the next quarter.

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A lot of it is going to depend on sellers greed. I live in the central belt, and a house in my cul-de-sac was on the market for 3 days only before it sold. This is because the seller was only trying to achieve 20k over what he paid for it 2 years ago. Nice house, double fronted, 4 bed, study, dining room, detached double garage etc.

However, another house is on for sale in the cul-de-sac, one of the entry level types that is a bit poverty spec, with a bedroom less and no double detached garage, study or any of that, and he wants [b]40k+[/b] over what he paid for it when he moved in 2 years ago. He has already 'bought' his next house, and needs some poor mug to finance his dream. He boasted before that he moves every two years to upscale his house and let some other mug pick up the tab.

Unfortunatley for him, there seems to be a shortage of poor mugs, hence why his has been on now for over 2 months, with just about zero viewers.

Reality for some folks is a bitch, ain't it? This market has [i]definitely[/i] turned up here, despite what the papers say.

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Interesting thread. Aberdeen has been artificially inflated, rents and house prices, due to the oil industry there. If the oil industry starts having trouble it will crash there, but with oil prices so high I reckon things will stay high. Edinburgh is dependent on the finance sector, retail and tourism, so if it falls here it will be post recession and not pre-recession.

I think conventional wisdom has it that Scotland lags the England market by 18 months or so.

I will echo the others on here and say that even within Edinburgh prices are very dependent on district. Flats west of Leith walk are on sale for +£30000 than flats to the east for the same type of thing. I still think all these Unite student properties will have some effect on the HMO market as will all the Polish immigrants going home.... if that happens.

There are a lot of flats for sale in Edinburgh at the moment. I don't know if this is more than the normal spring bounce or not, but I got an e-mail from ESPC this morning with 22 new flats that meet my search criteria. Over the last year it is usually 4 to 6 per e-mail.

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Don't..... Don't... Don't.....Don't believe the hype...

Scotland [b]down[/b] 2.9% in 6 months

[url="http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index/HAPIndex_APR08.pdf"]-2.9% in 6 month but 10.4% over the year[/url]

i.e... huge spike up until August 07 and then falls ever since, those heady MoM figures from the beginning of last year are starting to come into play now in the YoY calcs!

[url="http://www.espc.com/EspcPublic/Content.aspx?pid=412"]only 1.2% up YoY and this from uber Bulls ESPC[/url]

Stop reading and listening to the local propaganda media and do your own diggin' ;)

Need more evidence?

[url="http://www.upmystreet.com/property-prices/trends/l/Edinburgh.html"]nice little graph to back all this up, note how Edinburgh's trend follows the national trend[/url]

Any doubters out there now???? :P Edited by geed

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Geed

Good to have you onboard, the regional subforum for Scotland desperately needs some action to liven it up!

Nice post re the upmystreet RoS figures, thats great

This week many expensive properties on in Morningside at record asking prices, will be interesting to see how they fare. My mate who lives in London has just observed Foxtons putting the flat next door to his on at £750k, he bought his (not done up) for £450 18 months ago. Seems to be a phase of putting stuff on at extreme asking prices?? Maybe this is to encourage offers at 10-15% under which will still be record prices?

PS. Geed what is your location?? Edited by roblpm

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[quote name='roblpm' post='1074207' date='Apr 16 2008, 04:11 PM']Geed

Good to have you onboard, the regional subforum for Scotland desperately needs some action to liven it up!

Nice post re the upmystreet RoS figures, thats great

This week many expensive properties on in Morningside at record asking prices, will be interesting to see how they fare. My mate who lives in London has just observed Foxtons putting the flat next door to his on at £750k, he bought his (not done up) for £450 18 months ago. Seems to be a phase of putting stuff on at extreme asking prices?? Maybe this is to encourage offers at 10-15% under which will still be record prices?

PS. Geed what is your location??[/quote]

Your right this area doesn't get much traffic. I will try and post more often here.

I am currently in Edinburgh. I believe Scotland is definitely behind Wales and England, there is a lag. Edinburgh is currently going through the stand off phase between buyer and seller. New builds down near the water are toast, anything that isnt perfect will now be seeing O/O going to F/P. Thing is, O/O prices going to F/P will probably be seen as an increase in asking price as the F/P will be nominally 20% over the O/O asking price. I am not sure how the indices deal with this. The RoS figures are essentially Scotlands Land registry figures so are real sale prices which lag 3 months or so.

Have a look at these reductions, good "posh" :lol: area and NOT new builds.

[url="http://propertysnake.co.uk/site/postcode/eh13"]Reductions in Edinburgh[/url]

The biggin' has been for sale for a few months now and can be considered to be a high end property. A lot of these big houses in E-bugh are kept in the family for generations so not many turn up for sale. If you beleiev the press and the locals, these two properties should have snapped up!

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