Guest wrongmove Posted February 2, 2005 Share Posted February 2, 2005 Now 1164!Oh how the hell do I upload the xls graph I've got of this? It'd be nice if posters could edit it so we could get a trend line going <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Turn it into a picture and then attach it to your post using the"browse" and "add this attachment" buttons below. Could you show the absolute number and the ratio of reductions to total stock ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guy Posted February 2, 2005 Share Posted February 2, 2005 Yes could do but I'll need a moment to do that - stupidly busy today, every 5 mins there seems to be another knock on my office door with a request for some stupid meeting or other! What would be really worthwhile is if I could post the graph somewhere as an xls in such a way that it could be edited and downloaded - I'm not going to have the time to constantly update it myself. Anyone know if that's possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zzg113 Posted February 2, 2005 Share Posted February 2, 2005 Upload it as as .txt file (ie change the file extension to .txt ) and then people can drag and drop it into Excel and it should open fine, and allow them to update it themselves. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...779entry55779 I believe the above thread tells you how to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 2, 2005 Share Posted February 2, 2005 1174 The pace quickens. Seems to be like a roller coaster, creaks its way to the top of the big dip, starts to gather a little momentum as the top is reached, then a quiet patch at the crest, then the clicking sound of the wheels begins to speed up as the vehicle starts its stomach turning ride to the bottom of the dip. I think we can just start to feel a little wind in our faces? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbleturbo Posted February 2, 2005 Share Posted February 2, 2005 1185!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Bear Posted February 2, 2005 Share Posted February 2, 2005 good find this, but don't forget to keep an eye on the new in last 7 days too. (very high numbers for coming soon....I wonder how far advance they go?) look forward to the graphs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pudniw Posted February 2, 2005 Share Posted February 2, 2005 1212! Can't believe an agent would publish this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest consa Posted February 2, 2005 Share Posted February 2, 2005 You numskulls!! How can you get stats from this? I am going to repeat myself more thoroughly_ You will not be able to record reductions accurately because if someone reduces their property 2 times in one week it will distort the figures. Please take these figures as good sign of reductions but nothing more. Don't forget inflated asking price to increase amount of reduction. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemo Posted February 2, 2005 Share Posted February 2, 2005 Seems to be like a roller coaster, creaks its way to the top of the big dip, starts to gather a little momentum as the top is reached, then a quiet patch at the crest, then the clicking sound of the wheels begins to speed up as the vehicle starts its stomach turning ride to the bottom of the dip. I think we can just start to feel a little wind in our faces?   <{POST_SNAPBACK}> This is indeed the psychology of a bubble. On the way up its: we'll enter the market because its going up. On the way down its: we won't enter the market/get out because its going down. Fundamentals causes change, but only when the market has completely overshot its fundamental value. I noticed the VIs in their silly statements referring to the 'momentum in the market' last year -- of course moment doesn't just work in one direction. You're analogy is spot on Realist. Look at that downward velocity build Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted February 3, 2005 Author Share Posted February 3, 2005 1232 from 9930 - 12.41% Big jump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Topher Bear Posted February 3, 2005 Share Posted February 3, 2005 You numskulls!!How can you get stats from this? I am going to repeat myself more thoroughly_ You will not be able to record reductions accurately because if someone reduces their property 2 times in one week it will distort the figures. Please take these figures as good sign of reductions but nothing more. Don't forget inflated asking price to increase amount of reduction. Thanks <{POST_SNAPBACK}> if someone reduces their place twice in one week, that is pretty significant don't you think? I can imagine that some vendors only want to reduce by a small amount (not enough) but they will certainly wait more than one week before trying again. Alternatively it could be someone who is desperate to sell who reduces their price by a big margin, gets no bites, so does it again, desperate to get a big sale. i really don't see that many will be dropping twice ina week. I might question whether these figures really are for the last 7 days only...and how quick they are to update their website...how real time are these figures? also how quick are they at taking properties off. when mrs TB was in the EA she said that they were quick to put the place on the web, but slow to take it off again. (another reason why these figures may be skewed against us actually!). I dont see why these are not valid stats. They won't be the rod upon which we balance our beliefs no, but as another example and evidence yes. Also a chart of the numbers will be much more useful than random comments on its current state...in this way we can see how widely it fluctuates and then be able to surmise how effective this data is. anyhow....its something to do while we wait init? Topher Bear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 3, 2005 Share Posted February 3, 2005 1250. The acceleration co-efficient for the level of reductions is reaching that point where panic will follow and all homes listed will be reduced and reductions will feed on reductions and we have lift off Houston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 3, 2005 Share Posted February 3, 2005 1266. The rate at which house prices are being reduced leads me to the inescapable conclusion that we have a house price crash on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yandros Posted February 4, 2005 Share Posted February 4, 2005 1274 If the number remains static, it shows that the rate of reductions is constant. Since the number is actually increasing, it suggests that the rate at which the market is sliding is actually accelerating. Of course it's highly unscientific, since the magnitude of the fall isn't factored into things, but even so, I think this is a worthwhile weathervane indicator. The only way that this measure could possibly be erroneous is if there is a counterbalancing rise in prices happening for some or all of the rest of Haarts properties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 4, 2005 Share Posted February 4, 2005 1281 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yandros Posted February 5, 2005 Share Posted February 5, 2005 1281 <{POST_SNAPBACK}> 1253 down for the first time in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest consa Posted February 6, 2005 Share Posted February 6, 2005 You see!! you have all gone quiet now this thread has proved worthless as i told you. All it says is, yes there has been a lot of reductions!! 1234 i rest my case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwickshire Lad Posted February 7, 2005 Share Posted February 7, 2005 Down to 1180 now.... Something must be happening ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted February 7, 2005 Share Posted February 7, 2005 Down to 1180 now....Something must be happening ! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Haart must have rumbled this website counting their reductions! The increase in reductions makes sense but the sudden drop in the number of reductions does not as there is no way they are moving houses at the rate the numbers suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted February 7, 2005 Author Share Posted February 7, 2005 Don't worry- weekend might see some volatility. More interested in the weekday figures. 1180 is still a cracking total %agewise, and by my rough calculations (as previously detailed) equates to falls of about 1.7% a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yandros Posted February 7, 2005 Share Posted February 7, 2005 Haart must have rumbled this website counting their reductions! The increase in reductions makes sense but the sudden drop in the number of reductions does not as there is no way they are moving houses at the rate the numbers suggest.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> 1201 No, it still makes sense. It just means that there were marginally fewer reductions over this weekend than last. The total is reductions over the last 7 days supposedly, so if no new reductions are made in the next 7 days the total should in theory drop to zero. If the total remains constant, it just suggests, in a very very vague kinda way, that the price reduction chart is currently linear. As I said before though, since we don't have the magnitudes, this is all very approximate. The number of houses being reduced each week might stay the same, but the average reduction might change from 5K to say 10K, thereby doubling the rate of fall. Anyone with time on their hands fancy sampling the actual reductions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted February 7, 2005 Author Share Posted February 7, 2005 Anyone with time on their hands fancy sampling the actual reductions?<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Yes, Yandros. I actually did this - sampled 30 random reduced properties, and the average reduction worked out at 3.9%. So, if 10% of properties have an average of 3.9% slashed off every week, in 10 weeks we can approximate that every house on their books will have had their prices cut by this amount (in reality the distribution will not be so simple.. some may not have had any price cuts, while some may have been cut more than once, but that doesn't matter for our purposes). That is 1.689% per month. Annualising that will give us an 18.5% fall this year! As you said, it's very approximate as some houses may be withdrawn and put back on at a high price - but it's a good start. Call me a sad git. I don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwickshire Lad Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 After a few day's drop, we're back up to 1275. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doogie Posted February 9, 2005 Share Posted February 9, 2005 1287 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warwickshire Lad Posted February 9, 2005 Share Posted February 9, 2005 1333. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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