Van

The Haart Price Reductions Thread

442 posts in this topic

[quote name='dinamo' date='Jan 27 2005, 05:54 PM']1004! Hooray!
[right][post="61379"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

1016 and rising....

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This thread is excellent B) best evidence yet of a crash, atleast in the area covered: south.

These stats are right up to date. Shows that the recent reports of "stability" in the market by the VIs are bonkers.

Now 1017...

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How about having the counter on the main HPC page for all to see before they click on a particular thread. Countdown to Armageddon! Trouble is, Haart will soon get wind of it and massage the figures. Watching supply rise is a very acurate indicator of where demand is moving--down.

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I know the site says these reductions are for the last 7 days but the numbers do seem to be behaving like a cumulative figure.

Of course the market could be in freefall...

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[quote name='Margret Thatcher' date='Jan 28 2005, 05:28 PM']I know the site says these reductions are for the last 7 days but the numbers do seem to be behaving like a cumulative figure.

Of course the market could be in freefall...
[right][post="62004"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

No, the numbers appear to be correct. There was a [b]dip[/b] in the number last week. Ergo not cumulative.

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[quote name='Realistbear' date='Jan 29 2005, 08:38 PM']1070

Anyone good at mathematics to chart this or is it too soon?  Seems like a spike graph to me.
[right][post="62508"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

Will a degree in physics do?

Looking pretty linear so far having done a quick plot, but we need a lot more data I think. Give it another week at least

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[quote name='Yandros' date='Jan 29 2005, 11:32 PM']Will a degree in physics do?
[right][post="62564"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

Darn thought I had a monopoly on that degree.

We're almost as rare as reasonably priced properties.

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1064

Does this mean 6 sold? Or have they twigged HPC.co.uk and are now manipulating the numbers cover up the alarming rise is listings for sale?

Anyone buying into this market really deserves to lose money.

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[quote name='Realistbear' date='Jan 30 2005, 02:18 AM']1064

Does this mean 6 sold?  Or have they twigged HPC.co.uk and are now manipulating the numbers cover up the alarming rise is listings for sale?

Anyone buying into this market really deserves to lose money.
[right][post="62641"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]

"Does this mean 6 sold?"
No, remember it's only those properties who's asking price was reduced [i]in the last 7 days[/i]. Obviously, 6 of the 1070 are more than 7 days old now. Sure it'll be back up soon.

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[quote name='Mr Tickle' date='Jan 26 2005, 11:07 AM']Think Consa has been monitoring these figs, interesting indeed, If I remember correctly they were in the 400's at the beginning of Jan!
[right][post="60428"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post][/right][/quote]
Thanks Mr Tickle

Sorry i was in spain for a few days so probably missed quite a lot on here

Beginning of jan was 416 reductions up to 813 on the 26th jan

There was a thread discussing them somewhere and concluded that they would increase in number, but only to a level at which they will probably stabilise due to number of properties on their books, people reducing maybe 2 times in 1 week etc.
so its quite difficult to accurately monitor the true picture from this info.

all I can conclude from it is that there is a lot of reductions and that is a good indication of the HPC at early stages, which is good enough for me.

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I was looking at the ratio of reductions to instructions

Hence currently there are 9865 properties on the books and 1064 reductions which gives a ratio of 9.3%

At the start of this thread the ratio was 10.76%, ie: there are proportionally less reductions on the books.

Presumably the number of reductions will go down proportionally as new instructions reflect more sensible pricing (ie: factoring in a 5-10% reduction in asking prices)

On the other hand, if these new instructions also don't sell, maybe in 6 months there will be additional reductions.

I'm not sure that its easy to make conclusions from these figures without access to more measurements than are available from the Haart website. Perhaps all that we can say is that it continues to provide succour and honey for the bears.

My friends who thought I was mad a year ago are now beginning to think I did the right thing by my STR.

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Check the top post for updates.

Observationally, it seems to me that prices have still drifted downwards in January, but that properties [i]have[/i] begun selling again. The traditional rush of new year buyers is probably more like a trickle this right now, but it is enough to throw the starving EAs a lifeline for another month or two. But prices [i]are[/i] still being cut, there's no doubt about it. The EAs realise that they need to cut prices to get the market moving, and slowly but surely some vendors that have steadfastly held asking prices at last summer's levels are beginning to crumble. If it's overpriced, it just won't sell, but if it's a good property at an attractive price, there are still buyers out there. Something for both bulls and bears.

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Back of an envelope calculations:
--------------------------------------

10% of properties on Haarts' books are having price cuts advertised each week.

Taken from a random sample of 30 reduced properties, the average price reduction is approximately 3.9%.

So, at this constant rate of price cutting:

Every 10 weeks, asking prices across all properties will have fallen by 3.9%.

Extrapolate that over a year, and we will get an approximate fall of 20% in 2005.

----------------

Must stress: [i]at current rate of price cutting[/i].

Maybe my HPC Procrasinator estimate of -25% in 2005 won't be so far off the mark after all!

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1099,

Funny how the "news" today was that there are more buyers around this week--I wonder if they mean't sellers and just made a mistake? ;)

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Now broken 1100.

Come on TTRTR KOTC and other bulls, how do you explain this thread?

Maybe its a bug in Haart's web site ? :lol:

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Last week we were on 969 reductions from 9837 - 9.85%
this week we are on 1122 from 9868 - 11.37%

The [i]rate[/i] of price-cutting is actually [b]increasing[/b] - the best possible bear scenario.

:rolleyes:

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Now 1164!

Oh how the hell do I upload the xls graph I've got of this? It'd be nice if posters could edit it so we could get a trend line going

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