Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

[Mr. Gruff]

Is it me or is Aberdeen starting to look a little deserted? The shops seem to be closing down on Union Street.

[RichB]

has it not always looked like that? lls putting rent up no doubt.

[RichB]

That and the big asda over brig of dee and teh tesco the other end.

[schmal]

I think I spoke too soon... The rental prices seem to bob up and down on a monthly basis. There seems to be a lot of cheap ex-council stock going up for rent well in excess of the value of the properties and the areas that they are located in. Also they are not all double glazed (in the 21st Century?WTF).

I really can't figure out what is driving this insanity; I suppose people just need a place to live, but having to pay the monster as well as feed yourself and pay the ridiculous council tax on a property that you don't even own...... Dohhh not to mention the spiraling cost of heating these sh1t tips.

[Anthony]

I think I spoke too soon... The rental prices seem to bob up and down on a monthly basis. There seems to be a lot of cheap ex-council stock going up for rent well in excess of the value of the properties and the areas that they are located in. Also they are not all double glazed (in the 21st Century?WTF).

I really can't figure out what is driving this insanity;

I've checked out rentals in Aberdeen over the last couple of months, and on-off for the last year. It's quite disheartening to be frank. Searching for ASPC properties under £800pcm (which are not flats) reveals less than 10 properties. This, in a city with over 1/4 million people. At one point I saw just 4 properties available. It goes some way to explain why the rents are what they are.

[Fergie]

Aberdeen is still looking very, very odd. It's one of the few places where it still seems cheaper to buy than rent. There appears to be more coming on for sale at fixed price (and relatively low FP at that - although mostly ex-council and Torry for the very low stuff). But the rental market is still impossible. I think it's to do with the fact that most of the people moving in are coming in from abroad on short term contracts and don't want to buy - their company is probably paying the rent anyway - but there's a shortage of rental places.

If you could be certain the oil boom would continue, it's probably the only place in the UK where I'd be screaming BUY, BUY, BUY...pick up six BTLs cheap... On the other hand, as soon as the oil boom comes to and end and the supply of foreign contract labour coming in dries up, it'll die, won't it? I'm not sure I'd want to be stuck with even one cruddy flat in Torry, never mind a portfolio

[schmal]

I just hate being taken advantage of. Having to work hard to pay for this sub standard slum accomodation (on top of sky high council tax (no services provided), student loan repayments, above average heating costs (they are all economy 7 crappy electric storage systems in these "EXECUTIVE" apartments :LAUGH)) does not sit well with me. I notice a lot of younger people are now starting to move away to work in places as diverse as Germany, Hong Kong and Dubai.

Maybe the solution is to stay away and take my skills with me until some sense returns to the market (and the local council), but as you said as soon as the price of a barrel of oil drops below 50 dollars then there's going to be a vaccum and a lot of winging taxi drivers with a lot of sub standard accomodation on their hands...

[maxdiver]

I found this place in ASPC.

http://www.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/SINGLE?ID=254793

it's right beside where i live and when i came to Aberdeen about 2 years ago it was a bookshop (2nd hand)

now the shop has been turned into a 2x1 bedroom flats o/o 95k.

i moved to Rosemount when i came to Aberdeen because there was places like this bookshop, bakers and stuff like that - it's a nice area in a good location.

it's a pity that a 2nd hand bookshop which enriches the life in aberdeen much more than having 2 waterstones on union st. does has to close down and the best thing that can be done with the shop is for it to become flats.

you see this all over the place - former mills, hospitals, shops and churches turned into property - aberdeen is not so bad i have been to worse places - but i think that once you lose amentities like this it is hard to get them back.

[maxdiver]

I found this property recently on ASPC

http://www-p.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/Liv.../253943#picture

Fixed price of £140,000 for a (basic) 2 bed in Ashgrove.

What is interesting is this: The tenement building is subject to a serious disrepair notice in terms of which the building will be upgraded throughout. Further details and costs can be obtained on request.

Who would take this on - I can't see anyone wanting to.

I looked at a flat next door for o/o 89.9k in Dec 05 with 3 beds and the roof needed replacing. I had a look around and walked right away.

I also noticed this:

http://www-p.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/Liv.../252299#picture

DRASTICALLY REDUCED FIXED PRICE FOR QUICK SALE

Anyone seen any others like this?

Anyway - for the stats.

For Sale in Aberdeen (City and Suburbs) - 1267

Fixed price - 322 (25.4%)

Added in last week - 114 (9.0%)

Added in last month - 571 (45.1%)

For sale outwith of Aberdeen - 691

Fixed price - 147 (21.3%)

Added in last week - 6 (0.9%)

Added in last month - 31 (4.5%)

These numbers don't seem to have moved much in a week.

Also - have a look at hte 2nd bedroom pic for 11 ashgrove Road - is it the biggest bed you have ever seen, the smallest sofa or a trick of the eye???

http://www-p.aspc.co.uk/WM/databases/activ...d-bedrrom_2.jpg

The image “http://www-p.aspc.co.uk/WM/databases/active_1.1/full_particulars/254779/gallery/gallery_images/11_ashgrove_road-bedrrom_2.jpg

Max

[Mr. Gruff]

For Sale - 1209

Fixed price - 324 (26.8%)

Added in last week - 108 (8.9%)

Added in last month - 511 (42.2%)

Well over 50% now on the market for over a month.

[maxdiver]

Luckily I come from Northern Ireland and (although not going there much) can talk about hosue prices there.

This board is a bit dead - maybe with oil at ~$100 people are too busy here to notice anything?

Also, Aberdeen is a bit behond the curve (although there have been some good P&J headlines recently)

Anyway - here are some stats. from ASPC:

For Sale in Aberdeen (City and Suburbs) - 1143 (-124)

Fixed price - 300 (26.2) (-22, +0.8%)

Added in last week - 53 (4.6%) (-61, -4.4%)

Added in last month - 411 (36.0%) (-160, -9.1%)

For sale outwith of Aberdeen - 649 (-42)

Fixed price - 148 (22.8%) (+1, +1.5%)

Added in last week - 26 (2.3%) (-20, -1.4%)

Added in last month - 171 (15.0%) (+140, +10.5%)

Don't know what to make of these numbers - looks like there has been a collapse in houses put on ASPC - in 20 days 60 less houses put on ASPC from Aberdeen - 3 a day.

there has also been a reduction in houses on aspc - down 166 althogether - is this due to sale or have houses come off the market?

From what i can gather - i live near a show flat and it has received few viewers and is newly on the market after being developed for the last few months.

Have prices in Aberdeen hit a wall - i guess we'll find out soon enough with the ASPC IF PRICES have dropped somewhat.

Rents are rising though - no stopping them

[maxdiver]

The flat beside me that was being done up and sold - was o/o 95k.

Now fixed price 125k

http://www-n.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/Liv.../254793#picture

I don't know for sure - but if the seller didn't recieve any bids over and above 95k - then why put it at a fixed price of 125k???

Phoned up (for the fixed price) - no bites, no nibbles, no sniffs - i reckon this flat might be dropped in price -

Does anyone have any experience of flats/houses being reduced in price in aberdeen?

Alli have seen is more fixed prices coming on the market - but this one changed to fixed from o/o

just found out that the bathroom shop next to the flat shown- is applying to be turned into a flat as well.

[CGS]

The flat beside me that was being done up and sold - was o/o 95k.

Now fixed price 125k

http://www-n.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/Liv.../254793#picture

I don't know for sure - but if the seller didn't recieve any bids over and above 95k - then why put it at a fixed price of 125k???

Phoned up (for the fixed price) - no bites, no nibbles, no sniffs - i reckon this flat might be dropped in price -

Does anyone have any experience of flats/houses being reduced in price in aberdeen?

Alli have seen is more fixed prices coming on the market - but this one changed to fixed from o/o

just found out that the bathroom shop next to the flat shown- is applying to be turned into a flat as well.

Time of year + WAY too many new flats being built + credit crunch + BTL'ers hangin' fire = uncertainty = fixed prices.

I used to own a new build flat in Glasgow. They went up in value from 95K to 145K in 1.5 years. You can now get a penthouse ( double the size of the flat I had ) for LESS than 145k some 3 years later in the same street ( these previously went for circa 200K). The price drop is inevitable --- Aberdeen will suffer the same fate - I cannot belive how many new flats are coming "on-line". Fixed prices are the guaranteed give away that people are bricking it. But equally selling a flat 4 weeks before Xmas will always be tricky.

This is a quality thread folks. I periodically read this and have never contributed before.

Has anyone ever read about the councils plans for ABZ in the next 20 yrs ? They must have some sort of plan ? I plan to sell tumbleweed seeds myself ) ( jesting)

Sometimes these threads can be like the panic-buying we see periodically when fuel prices strikes threaten but in reverse. The feel good factor in Aberdeen has died a little me finks but some people are complete doom and gloom merchants.

keep up the posts max

regards

CS

[maxdiver]

Isn't the property supplement of the P&J looking a bit thinner than usual lately,

and now for the scores:

1038

294

46

308

627

136

26

150

For Sale in Aberdeen (City and Suburbs) - 1038 (-105)

Fixed price - 294

Added in last week - 46

Added in last month - 308 (-103)

For sale outwith of Aberdeen - 627

Fixed price -138

Added in last week - 26 (2.3%) (-20, -1.4%)

Added in last month - 150

What we have here is a collapse in the number of homes advertising on ASPC - homes in Aberdeen added in last month down by over 100 in 2 weeks and over 250 in a month.

Any ideas why?

Are houses being brought off the market - or are sellers not putting houses on the market- buyers not buying - or ASPC is not getting advertisers???

The website may just be being cleared out - but i reckon sellers are taking props. off the market - no evidence for this though.

[Dosser]

Looking over the increase in fixed prices ranging from the 19th June when Gruff started recording them to Maxi's figures today. The increase from 136 to 294 is in my opinion substantial - not easily explained by seasonal fluctuations. I would say sentiment is turning and people are not as confident of buyers bidding the price up. Does any one have any evidence that backs this up - even if it is anecdotal.

D

[Glinch]

My next door neighbour has just bought a house in Banchory Devenick. It was on the market for offers over £350,000.

He paid £434,700. People are still willing to pay well over the odds.

I've noticed a lot more fixed prices in the ASPC.

Keep my eye on the market as I will be selling in the next year.

[maxdiver]

On the change in sentiment.

The front page of hte P&J saying that prices dropped by 2% in Q2 (i think) has made a big effect on people I know's psychies.

There is still a lot of money around though as you've pointed out Glinch - and maybe now that prices shot up, they are well supported fundamentally but won't rise much further.

There are still people coming to work in Aberdeen and its puting real pressure on rents - FTBers (potential) (i know) are looking to buy - esp. if they are high earning.

others i know are more cynical and think prices are too high - their time horizons are short and don't think that £250k for an exec. apart. is vale for money.

[Mr. Gruff]

For Sale - 973

Fixed price - 285 (29.3%)

Added in last week - 48 (4.9%)

Added in last month - 271 (27.9%)

Seems noone wants to sell their house just now.

My guess is that it's December.

[sandster]

I was sitting in the bank the other day waiting on the better half doing her stuff and when flicking through the ASPC magazine I was amazed at how many properties are fixed price. It used to be very very few now it is around a third. Definitely a change in sentiment.

[quine]

http://www-m.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/Liv.../255681#picture

My friend was bidding for this one and was fourth giving a bid of over £200k....it went for £250k so there are still plenty people in Aberdeen with too much money. I believe the oil industry is expecting lots of relocations to Aberdeen in the summer 08 so that will boost things here again.

[Glinch]

Welcome Quine

The amount received over the asking price for that house is frightening!

I moved here in the 80's when the prices had plummeted and the estate agents were telling us to offer £20,000 less and it would be accepted.

How times have changed.

[aberdeen07]

Homes for Sale in Aberdeen City & Suburbs:

Total: 827

Added this month: 167 (19.3%) - of which 31 added this week.

Fixed Price: 242 (just under 28%) - of which 32 Under Offer; 15 added this month (3 this week).

Almost 1 in 5 Aberdeen city properties on market for less than a month = reasonably good supply coming to market (especially for December).

28% of properties at fixed prices = indication that prices are coming to a peak.

IMO prices in Aberdeen city have either reached their peak or are just about to. Prices will probably remain fairly flat in the first quarter of 2008. After that they'll probably fall back, especially at the high-priced end of the market, with mid-priced properties being less affected. However, rents look set to continue to increase (due to large-scale immigration and increasing numbers of students) which may encourage continuing BTL investment, especially at the lower-priced end of the market (i.e. anything below £90k).

Some anecdotal evidence about rents: I talked to the accommodation officers/departments for both universities in September: they had massive problems finding any kind of accommodation for their students and had to block-book beds in the Youth Hostel on Queen's Road & some cheap hotels around town. Both universities (especially RGU) have experienced a massive increase in student numbers. The number of immigrants (especially from Poland) continues to grow and this is leading to upward pressure on rents. One-bed flats that were renting for £350-£400pcm 12-18 months ago are now renting for £450-£500pcm.

I would expect this to lead to increased BTL purchasers in the short-term which will either push prices up/keep prices at current levels at the 'cheaper' end of the market.

My overall forecast for Aberdeen in 200*:

High-priced properties (over £320k): slight fall

Mid-priced properties (between £90k and £320k): level prices

Low-priced properties (under £90k): level prices/slight increase

[aberdeen07]

Isn't the property supplement of the P&J looking a bit thinner than usual lately

...

For Sale in Aberdeen (City and Suburbs) - 1038 (-105)

Fixed price - 294

Added in last week - 46

Added in last month - 308 (-103)

For sale outwith of Aberdeen - 627

Fixed price -138

Added in last week - 26 (2.3%) (-20, -1.4%)

Added in last month - 150

What we have here is a collapse in the number of homes advertising on ASPC - homes in Aberdeen added in last month down by over 100 in 2 weeks and over 250 in a month.

Any ideas why?

Are houses being brought off the market - or are sellers not putting houses on the market- buyers not buying - or ASPC is not getting advertisers???

The website may just be being cleared out - but i reckon sellers are taking props. off the market - no evidence for this though.

It's just December - very few people want to sell their house just before Christmas. Things will pick up in the New Year, especially around Easter and the amount of properties for sale will peak in the summer.

[aberdeen07]

You know the market is laughable when someone puts this on the market for a fixed price of £110K

The real joke is that someone will buy it

The real real joke is the stupidity of whoever was trying to sell it. I own a flat very near to that one and I know exactly what's been happening with it.

The owners spent months doing the place up - must have cost them a fortune! After trying to sell if for £110k for a few wees, the fixed price was reduced to £105k, then the flat was taken off the market (plasma TVs removed shortly afterwards!) and it's now been up for rent for about 2 months. No doubt the owners are looking for silly money for rent too since there's no sign of any tenants yet!

[maxdiver]

Place beside me is still on the market - no offers - no viewings (AFAIK) -

we'll see how things go.

ASPC has had a cull on properties listed.

God it's depressing here - when will the sun return?