Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

[delboypass]

there was an article in the evening express that said that the population growth in aberdeenshire was quite large - and while aberdeen is itself generally shrinking (due to among other things smaller family/household sizes) the towns and villages around aberdeen have seen large numbers of people moving in in the last 10 years.

I'd say that delboy's numbers are roughly ok - you can find out loads of information on demographics from census reports and the council website etc...

However, what aberdeen has that no where else in the UK has is the oil and gas centre. Prices may be crazy - but at least there is a reason for them being crazy.

I'd say that for every 1 oil industry worker there is 3 people relying on them (taxi drivers, estate agents, waiters, hair dressers) as well as a lot of companies set up to deal with them in non oil-related ways e.g. Space Solutions provide the interior design/fit-out for loads of companies.

The Aberdeen economy is growing and compared the rest of the UK is not booming as much since the reasons behind Aberdeen (not general) Property Inflation are not going to go away anytime soom (oil price).

This issue of affordable housing is distasteful if you ask me -

Can you imagine buying a nice luxury 5 bed house with all the trimmings and knowing that next door there are people living there - normal people - who can afford there house!!! wtf?

The problem with affordable housing is just that...

you put people who can afford the properties with people who normally couldnt...

Ill let you work out what normally happens next..

now where am i going to get £400,000 for that 2 bed flat?

Ive done some research...

Look at this link for aberdeen councils research into house prices..

very interesting notes on price rices, number of houses sold, who bought them etc..

http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/ACCI/nmsrun...97&sID=3365

Edited September 7, 2007 by delboypass

[schmal]

I have noticed that the advertised rental prices are going up again. I am assuming that tenants are moving out of the properties at a lower rate and the Landlords are chancing the market to see if there are any idiots out there prepared to pay the ridiculous rental prices and lock themselves into long term legal agreements......

My suspicion is that there are enough idiots with enough money to effectively raise the rental levels.

[delboypass]

Was in town this evening 'as you do' when scotland are beating france and top of table B...

But anyway...every restaraunt and every pub was filled to the brim...

there is still a lot a lot of money sloshing around....

[Mr. Gruff]

For sale : 1259

Added in last week : 133 (10.6%)

Added in last month : 696 (55.3%)

Fixed Price: 217 (17.2%)

Again, too busy at work to post.

[Dosser]

Was in town this evening 'as you do' when scotland are beating france and top of table B...

But anyway...every restaraunt and every pub was filled to the brim...

there is still a lot a lot of money sloshing around....

At $80 a barrel, I can't see that ending any time soon.

Got my fingers crossed that the credit crunch will bite enough to bring things down a bit - figuring Aberdeen folk are like everyone else and still borrow that bit more than they can afford and hence will start to struggle - as the Aberdeen Council report posted aboove suggested house prices are 5 times the average salary (if I recall right) and 5 times a salary, high or low, is still out of line with the historical levels.

I don't know how many properties in Aberdeen are 'investment' properties and how that might effect prices should a crunch start to bite. Someone commented on here a while ago a lot of folk started to rent out their city centre flats and bought houses to live in? I'm hoping that despite Aberdeen's affluence people will start to recgnise that theere's far too much speculative value built into house prices and cold feet and price falls ensue, but to be honest I don't know how much of that is wishful thinking.

D

[PatientObserver]

I have noticed that 3 properties which have been on the market since about June have been posted again on ASPC under new reference numbers - still at the same prices. 1 in Banchory and 2 in the Alford area.

One property has gone from original asking price - to fixed price - back to original asking price - to 95% of original asking price. Another property in Banchory has been reduced by 30% this week (maybe a tad overpriced?)

[PatientObserver]

Whilst perusing the Banchory area last night I came across a property which has had its asking price reduced by 8%. Time on the market is about 10 weeks if IIRC. Is anybody else noticing similar asking price reductions in other areas? The properties mentioned in this post and the one above are marketed by the same company. Maybe some pressure to maintain sales volumes.

[Dosser]

Fixed price scam revealed in P&J.

Bill Webster claims Aberdeen prices 40% overvalued - Don't know who he is, but I reckon he'd be welcome around here and it's just one more public dissenting voice in the wider media

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/displayNo...tentPK=18389706

Edited September 14, 2007 by Dosser

[PatientObserver]

Thanks for that link Dosser, we were thinking that FP may mean a more motivated seller - hence less messing around with the sealed bid system. Obviously not!

[brownbootcuts]

From watching the ASPC site its clear that properties are staying on there longer than before.

In addition the number of fixed price properties continues to increase, currently at 236.

Edited September 17, 2007 by brownbootcuts

[sandster]

The fixed prices are higher because people have been out bidding each other over the past year abd people have been paying silly prices like everywhere else. This I feel is coming to an end as the no. of buyers is drying up. Sentiment I think changed slightly when Shell decided not to build their HQ campus thing a few months ago. So the houses will probably still have the same offers over they will just no longer go for silly inflated prices.

[brownbootcuts]

You know the market is laughable when someone puts this on the market for a fixed price of £110K

[Dosser]

You know the market is laughable when someone puts this on the market for a fixed price of £110K

The real joke is that someone will buy it

[brownbootcuts]

The real joke is that someone will buy it

I know

A plasma telly and a new kitchen is the sign of an upmarket Menzies Road........the place is an utter dive

[geneer]

I wish I could share your optimism, but without a severe credit crunch and/or the price of oil going down, I don't see significant reductions in price any time soon.

D

LOL. talk about poor timing.

[Anthony]

I've been looking to rent again in Aberdeen.

Looking at ASPC, it seems I have no chance! Searching for properties (excluding flats) under £800 per month revealed a total of 16 properties. All the ones that were suitable had "under offer" written next to them.

While I'm not allergic to flats, but my general interpretation of the term "2-bed flat" translates to "1 bed flat with a boxroom". I rented a pretty decent 2-bed flat in Preston some time ago. The lounge was 18x14ft and I use this as a benchmark to determine if my stuff will fit in. Since then I've added a wardrobe, decent bosch washing machine and lawn-mower to my stuff so I'm looking for something with storage. All I see are tiny flats on the market, all fully furnished.

[maxdiver]

Look on the brightside.

Oil is at $79 and even though these high prices should destroy the global economy at least our jobs are safe in Aberdeen.

About the renting - the Evening Express and maybe the P&J reported that Aberdeen's rental prices are soaring - while the rest of Scotland is stagnating.

That means that the flat in torry is a steal at £110k. - I can see it being worth £1 million in a few weeks.

Here is a serious thought.

Got up this morning at 6.45 to start work at 7.30 and thought - shit it's really dark.

This is bound to affect my mood - is there any chance that a particularly bad winter with loads of pwer-cuts, 1/2 inch of snow blocking all roads down-south and a fuel crisis (gas shortage) along with the usual doom and gloom of 6 months of perpetual darkness outwith of work.

Well is there any chance that that could be enough to trigger a HPC - last summer was glorious weatherwise in Aberdeen and in England, this year - bag of shite. Last summer happy happy HPI - this summer "the summer of HPI discontent"

House sales are seasonal by the way - see that document that was posted few days back -

Can the darkness precipitate the crash???

[sandster]

Think you may have a point re. getting darker but I think it is going to be a long winter for the UK in general.

[Mr. Gruff]

For sale : 1296

Added in last week : 119 (9.2%)

Added in last month : 647 (49.9%)

Fixed Price: 240 (18.5%)

[gentlebreeze]

I don’t think any sensible person will disagree that property price in Aberdeen is over inflated.

I cannot see much prospects for property market due to following reasons

1)I just wonder why people still think North sea oil is a reason for inflating the price.

According to wikipedia there was ten-percentage reduction in production of oil in 2003 and further 12.8 percentage in 2005 and expecting a significant reduction by 2020!!. please see the link given below

Reference

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sea_oil

2) I don’t think there will be any dramatic change in number of students in the universities in the near future (intake = outgoing) to consider prospects for buy to let investors.

3) Every body know that there will be difficulty in getting mortgage due to recent unfortunate market turmoil.

4) It is reasonable to think that there will be more strict valuation and also credit check by banks.

5) the basics – affordability will stop prices going up( it seems that many are overstretched)

please follow closely the fixed prices and asking prices of properties and keep a note with house number and price then check after 4 weeks then you will see the reality

I feel really sorry to see the people who struggle to sell the property as they have already brought a house on inflated price

many thanks

Gentlebreeze

Edited September 27, 2007 by gentlebreeze

[maxdiver]

"North-east property price boom is over, warns expert "

The warning comes on the back of new figures issued yesterday showing the average house price in Aberdeen has suffered its biggest drop in two years.

Figures from the Aberdeen Solicitors Property Centre (ASPC) suggest that there has been a 2% drop in the average Aberdeen house price in the third quarter of 2007.

In the last three months there has been a huge increase in the amount of properties on the market, while the number of homes for sale at a fixed price has risen by more than 170% from 154 to 410 since the summer.

Aberdeen University sociologist John Bone suggests the situation may be far worse than property agents are letting on. He has spent two years studying UK housing trends as part of a sociological study, and feels the big increase in fixed-price properties on the market suggests the property boom in the north-east is over.

He said: "These stories that focus on annualised increases are somewhat misleading and may even potentially induce some vulnerable and less-well-informed young first-time buyers to embark on a very unwise investment, just at the point where the market has clearly turned - even in Aberdeen.

"While annualised figures sustain the story that the local housing market continues to boom, more recent indicators call this seriously into question.

"There has been a marked increase in the number of properties listed in the north-east between mid-June and the current period, as well as a significant rise in the number of fixed-price properties.

"Overall, the 'prices soaring' scenario is looking like yesterday's news."

Last night, there were 410 properties for sale at fixed price across the north-east.

Figures released by ASPC show the average house price in Aberdeen alone fell to £207,316 from £210,536 in the third quarter of the year.

The number of properties for sale in the city increased 24% to 1,506, and the average house price in Aberdeen is still significantly higher than the UK average of £198,898.

The amount of properties sold in Aberdeen also increased in the last three months, to 2,124 from 2,026.

ASPC chairman John Mac-Rae says there are signs of a slight sobering in the market, but that may not be a bad thing. He said: "There has been a slight slowdown in the market here, but that isn't uncommon for this quarter of the year.

"However, we will be watching things very closely in the next quarter and the first of 2008, then we will get a clearer indication of any shift."

He said the recent financial crisis at Northern Rock could be responsible for harming confidence among homeowners. "The Northern Rock issue will have an effect because lenders are being more cautious which will have a sobering effect, but we have a strong economy up here which is distinct from other areas of the UK. There are more fixed-price properties on the market, whereas before there were none, but we need to see trends for the first quarter of next year before we can make conclusions."

Separate research from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors yesterday claimed that UK house prices are falling at their fastest rate for two years as buyers stay away from the market.

But a major correction in the market is still unlikely, it said, while economic growth is above trend and employment conditions remain buoyant.

So the party is over!

The market is "sobering" up - well i'm guessing that people are going to be left with a stinking hangover.

I know some people who came to Aberdeen around 2 years back and have just put offers on flats. -

Ok these people work in oil+gas and have good salaries - but still they have paid too much for something that doesn't have a 14-day moneyback guarantee.

Luckily "a major correction in the (housing) market is still unlikely, it said, while economic growth is above trend and employment conditions remain buoyant" (Bu11shit filter turned-off)

[Dosser]

"North-east property price boom is over, warns expert "

The warning comes on the back of new figures issued yesterday showing the average house price in Aberdeen has suffered its biggest drop in two years.

Figures from the Aberdeen Solicitors Property Centre (ASPC) suggest that there has been a 2% drop in the average Aberdeen house price in the third quarter of 2007.

In the last three months there has been a huge increase in the amount of properties on the market, while the number of homes for sale at a fixed price has risen by more than 170% from 154 to 410 since the summer.

Aberdeen University sociologist John Bone suggests the situation may be far worse than property agents are letting on. He has spent two years studying UK housing trends as part of a sociological study, and feels the big increase in fixed-price properties on the market suggests the property boom in the north-east is over.

He said: "These stories that focus on annualised increases are somewhat misleading and may even potentially induce some vulnerable and less-well-informed young first-time buyers to embark on a very unwise investment, just at the point where the market has clearly turned - even in Aberdeen.

"While annualised figures sustain the story that the local housing market continues to boom, more recent indicators call this seriously into question.

"There has been a marked increase in the number of properties listed in the north-east between mid-June and the current period, as well as a significant rise in the number of fixed-price properties.

"Overall, the 'prices soaring' scenario is looking like yesterday's news."

Last night, there were 410 properties for sale at fixed price across the north-east.

Figures released by ASPC show the average house price in Aberdeen alone fell to £207,316 from £210,536 in the third quarter of the year.

The number of properties for sale in the city increased 24% to 1,506, and the average house price in Aberdeen is still significantly higher than the UK average of £198,898.

The amount of properties sold in Aberdeen also increased in the last three months, to 2,124 from 2,026.

ASPC chairman John Mac-Rae says there are signs of a slight sobering in the market, but that may not be a bad thing. He said: "There has been a slight slowdown in the market here, but that isn't uncommon for this quarter of the year.

"However, we will be watching things very closely in the next quarter and the first of 2008, then we will get a clearer indication of any shift."

He said the recent financial crisis at Northern Rock could be responsible for harming confidence among homeowners. "The Northern Rock issue will have an effect because lenders are being more cautious which will have a sobering effect, but we have a strong economy up here which is distinct from other areas of the UK. There are more fixed-price properties on the market, whereas before there were none, but we need to see trends for the first quarter of next year before we can make conclusions."

Separate research from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors yesterday claimed that UK house prices are falling at their fastest rate for two years as buyers stay away from the market.

But a major correction in the market is still unlikely, it said, while economic growth is above trend and employment conditions remain buoyant.

So the party is over!

The market is "sobering" up - well i'm guessing that people are going to be left with a stinking hangover.

I know some people who came to Aberdeen around 2 years back and have just put offers on flats. -

Ok these people work in oil+gas and have good salaries - but still they have paid too much for something that doesn't have a 14-day moneyback guarantee.

Luckily "a major correction in the (housing) market is still unlikely, it said, while economic growth is above trend and employment conditions remain buoyant" (Bu11shit filter turned-off)

Nice find. Let's hope that it really is the start of a return to sensible pricing. Let's also hope that the fixed prices become proper fixed prices and not over inflated figures dreamt up by chancers to fleece those who can't stand the emotional turmoil of the offers over process.

D

[Mr. Gruff]

Seems that I'm not the only one doing this.

For sale : 1299

Added in last week : 149 (11.5%)

Added in last month : 546 (42%)

Fixed Price: 289 (22.2%)

So, 22% are fixed price, 58% have been available for over a month. These seem to be getting a little bit high.

[schmal]

Fixed prices are still grossly overpriced. It is encouraging to see that the rental prices are falling back into a more realistic band of affordability. A few months ago people were trying to charge over 400 pounds per month for a room in "their" house.....

[Mr. Gruff]

For sale : 1290

Added in last week : 130 (10.1%)

Added in last month : 587 (45.5%)

Fixed Price: 325 (25.2%)

Starting to look a bit stagnant. 54.5% have been on for over a month, a quarter are fixed price. I wonder if this could be explained by seasonal variation.