Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

[Haddie]

A lot of property on aspc without  furniture Inside! 

Also ones that have been pulled months ago appearing again , anyone noticed that ?

 

 

 

[Oily]

A 'new' property appeared on the ASPC site yesterday with snow on the ground. 

[spyguy]

8 hours ago, Will! said:

Telegraph:  North Sea oil jobs disappearing even faster than feared

There;s about a $50 dollar gap between what it costs to extract the oil and what it sells for.

There'll be no new wells sunk for ages, if ever.

Once a well is sunk then there's little demand for labour.

Its that simpe but Aberdeen council struggle with the truth.

 

[cashinmattress]

13 hours ago, Will! said:

Telegraph:  North Sea oil jobs disappearing even faster than feared

"faster than feared"???

Ummm.

Counter that with the argument when wages grew (much) more than value added.

The business model that Europe's oil hub blew up like a beach ball on is obsolete.

I'd argue it's exactly as expected.

[shortbread]

Brutal assessment

Quote

The North Sea Oil Recovery Is Dead In The Water

 ...........BP’s chief executive echoed that sentiment. “We like the North Sea. It has been an important hub for us for a long time and it will remain one,” BP’s CEO Bob Dudley said, according to Reuters. “This year we will be drilling six exploration wells in the UK North Sea. That’s more than we drilled in decades.”

The acquisition of Maersk Oil by Total SA is also seen as a bet on the North Sea. The purchase will instantly make Total the second largest producer in the North Sea after Statoil.

Still, the North Sea is hardly the most competitive place to produce oil. Production has been declining for years, and the recent uptick in output pales in comparison to the region’s decline. And in any event, the increase will be short-lived. By 2020 and thereafter, absent a substantial increase in exploration and investment, the North Sea will reenter decline, a descent that will be hard to pull out of. The queue of new projects does not look promising – the FT, citing data from Oil & Gas UK, said only one new oil field was given the green light in the first six months of 2017, compared to 22 in 2012.

Moreover, despite the positive rhetoric from the bosses of BP and Shell, both companies have reduced their presence in the North Sea. BP sold off a key pipeline as part of the Forties system earlier this year and Shell sold roughly half of its producing assets in the North Sea to an American private equity group.

In fact, the work of decommissioning old platforms and pipelines will overtake oil production as the region’s main focus. According to Wood Mackenzie, the cost of decommissioning in the years ahead will make the North Sea oil industry a net drain on the UK treasury, as oil companies can recoup taxes paid to offset the cost of decommissioning. Beginning in 2017 and onward, the industry is 

 

In fact, the work of decommissioning old platforms and pipelines will overtake oil production as the region’s main focus. According to Wood Mackenzie, the cost of decommissioning in the years ahead will make the North Sea oil industry a net drain on the UK treasury, as oil companies can recoup taxes paid to offset the cost of decommissioning. Beginning in 2017 and onward, the industry is expected to spend upwards of 53 billion pounds to close up old platforms and equipment, half of which will fall on the UK taxpayer.

So, far from a boon for the country, the North Sea is in danger of becoming “a significant annual expenditure for government, rather than a provider of income” in the decades to come, according to a Wood Mackenzie assessment from earlier this year.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-North-Sea-Oil-Recovery-Is-Dead-in-The-Water.html

[Ignorantbliss]

How do surveyors get their valuations? -  in the current market a tad optimistic asking for over £425k+ - 45 Forest Road Kintore considering what you can get for that money elsewhere in the area.

[cashinmattress]

2 hours ago, Ignorantbliss said:

How do surveyors get their valuations? -  in the current market a tad optimistic asking for over £425k+ - 45 Forest Road Kintore considering what you can get for that money elsewhere in the area.

Magic 8-ball, estate agent limited edition.

[stairlift needed]

Someone else on this forum said last 3 sold nearest comparable.Beauty in the eye of the beholder for Kintore although Lilybank the house name one of my favourites.

[shackleford]

EPC - F.  Yeah, I grew up in a house like that.  Winters were cauld!  The thing will stay up for at least another hundred years though.  

Anyway, old favourite 79 Oakhill Grange is still up there on ASPC, and they're still holding for OO 320K.... there's an overlap with the "Stubborn Sods" thread, isn't there?

 

[spyguy]

16 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

Magic 8-ball, estate agent limited edition.

Ypull get thrown out the RCS.

giving secrets away.

 

[shortbread]

80 more to be laid off from Repsol a.k.a Sinopec a.k.a Talisman....

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/149964/breaking-repsol-sinopec-announces-80-north-sea-job-losses/

[shackleford]

My Facebook feed right now seems to be dominated by a combination of estate agents touting houses in ABZ ("early viewing is advised to appreciate the exceptional standard of accommodation on offer!" - aye, right), of friends sharing links to their properties or doing pals a favour by sharing links to theirs, and new build companies attempting to hawk their overpriced two bedroom "executive apartments" in previously undesirable areas of town.  It all reeks of desperation.  

I've done a bit of analysis of home report value vs. sold prices in the last few months.  There's not a huge drop, typically around 5%, from home report value to ROS sold price, provided that the home report was done recently (ie. some time in 2017).  I infer that surveyors are by and large pricing the downturn in to their HR valuations, which of course is correct - it should be market value.  Of course this may reflect that the houses I'm looking at are the ones that have sold, and thus by definition are desirable.  Also, the people still working in the town still have jobs and high salaries, and cheap mortgages are available in ABZ the same as the rest of the UK.  

[shortbread]

22 hours ago, shackleford said:

......  It all reeks of desperation.  

I've done a bit of analysis of home report value vs. sold prices in the last few months.  There's not a huge drop, typically around 5%, from home report value to ROS sold price, provided that the home report was done recently (ie. some time in 2017).  I infer that surveyors are by and large pricing the downturn in to their HR valuations, which of course is correct - it should be market value.  Of course this may reflect that the houses I'm looking at are the ones that have sold, and thus by definition are desirable.  .......

Plus the system is not designed to take into account the abundant supply of properties in Aberdeen, now crossed 5500 on ASPC! This will be topped with the many new builds in the pipeline.

[Diver Dan]

On 17/08/2017 at 3:14 PM, Diver Dan said:

 

Thought I'd do a monthly snapshop/comparison.

Aberdeen Rightmove 

376 sales in June in Aberdeen.

There are 5436 for sale on ASPC 919 for rent

1170 on Citylets

July's results are out:

369 sales in July in Aberdeen

Listings for places to buy and rent continue to increase but still a lot of people paying over the odds.

[shortbread]

1 hour ago, Diver Dan said:

 

Listings for places to buy and rent continue to increase but still a lot of people paying over the odds.

Plenty of people priced out by the mad rush during the $100/barrel times are finally taking the jump convinced there has never been a better time to buy in Aberdeen.

Friends of ours who work in the public sector moved into a 70-80 odd sq meter 3 bed semi in Dunlin Crescent, Altens. They paid £185k for it, the same property sold for £220k 2 years ago and for £188k before that in Oct' 11.

They are convinced that the price drop from the bubble days are too good to be true and it's now or never. The bubble effect between 2013-15 are making today's readjusted prices look reasonable!

I think there is a long way to go yet!

 

[Oily]

2 hours ago, shortbread said:

Plenty of people priced out by the mad rush during the $100/barrel times are finally taking the jump convinced there has never been a better time to buy in Aberdeen.

Friends of ours who work in the public sector moved into a 70-80 odd sq meter 3 bed semi in Dunlin Crescent, Altens. They paid £185k for it, the same property sold for £220k 2 years ago and for £188k before that in Oct' 11.

They are convinced that the price drop from the bubble days are too good to be true and it's now or never. The bubble effect between 2013-15 are making today's readjusted prices look reasonable!

I think there is a long way to go yet!

 

I think you're right!

 

[Diver Dan]

16 hours ago, Oily said:

I think you're right!

 

I think some sort of 'Bull Trap' (See the lifecycle of a bubble) would be a fair assessment of the current state of play.

The argument that one person I know made is that if interest rates (central or mortgage) go up, the amount you would save by waiting while paying rent would be less than buying now and benefiting from low mortgage interest and no tent payments. I'm not sure I agree but I can see it being a reason for 2015 price-10k to seem like an attractive deal.

[Houdini]

2 hours ago, Diver Dan said:

I think some sort of 'Bull Trap' (See the lifecycle of a bubble) would be a fair assessment of the current state of play.

The argument that one person I know made is that if interest rates (central or mortgage) go up, the amount you would save by waiting while paying rent would be less than buying now and benefiting from low mortgage interest and no tent payments. I'm not sure I agree but I can see it being a reason for 2015 price-10k to seem like an attractive deal.

That argument works except that prices are set on the margins so prices are currently set based on BTL interest rates and rental incomes. As interest rates rise prices unless rental incomes significantly increase prices are going to fall.... 

[Haddie]

It's all going to be about ROI,

I honestly  think that aspc is going to be near 6000 by christmas, after that it might be game On! 

[shortbread]

So the JWG - AFW merger finally gets the green light.....

JWG - AFW

Total - Maersk

SLI - AAM

Three major mergers that will aim for substantial cost savings, which might mean major job reductions in Aberdeen going into 2018! 

 

[Option5]

3 minutes ago, shortbread said:

So the JWG - AFW merger finally gets the green light.....

JWG - AFW

Total - Maersk

SLI - AAM

Three major mergers that will aim for substantial cost savings, which might mean major job reductions in Aberdeen going into 2018! 

 

JWG - AFW doesn't make sense to me, if the oil price stays low they could be in big trouble, it's not as thought they have a monopoly to exploit. Oil companies will still go to at least 3 bidders, some without the excess baggage.

[Houdini]

2 minutes ago, shortbread said:

So the JWG - AFW merger finally gets the green light.....

JWG - AFW

Total - Maersk

SLI - AAM

Three major mergers that will aim for substantial cost savings, which might mean major job reductions in Aberdeen going into 2018! 

 

Surely the most significant cost in all these companies is labour so I really can't see where the might comes from. There will be major job reductions from now through 2018 as the current staff reduction approach seems to be little and often.

[Option5]

1 minute ago, Houdini said:

Surely the most significant cost in all these companies is labour so I really can't see where the might comes from. There will be major job reductions from now through 2018 as the current staff reduction approach seems to be little and often.

A lot of the big contractors took on big investments and office/workshop leases when oil companies spending as based on over $100/barrel. At $54/ barrel oil company work is drying up so now the contractors have less income, same debt. Aker Solutions is another one....

[shortbread]

1 minute ago, Option5 said:

JWG - AFW doesn't make sense to me, if the oil price stays low they could be in big trouble, it's not as thought they have a monopoly to exploit. Oil companies will still go to at least 3 bidders, some without the excess baggage.

It's exactly when management struggles to justify the benefits of the merger to shareholders, that the culling season begins. 

I think AFW have better projects outside the North Sea domain, eg. Africa.......which is of no comfort to the white collars stationed in Aberdeen!

1 minute ago, Houdini said:

Surely the most significant cost in all these companies is labour so I really can't see where the might comes from. There will be major job reductions from now through 2018 as the current staff reduction approach seems to be little and often.

Hmmm, I think the first few months will be spent familiarizing, or so I think. rest assured it will turn into dog eat dog very soon!

 

[Houdini]

4 minutes ago, Option5 said:

A lot of the big contractors took on big investments and office/workshop leases when oil companies spending as based on over $100/barrel. At $54/ barrel oil company work is drying up so now the contractors have less income, same debt. Aker Solutions is another one....

Debt is not something you can remove its just a monthly noose / repayment that will eventually destroy them. When I mentioned labour it was on the basis that its a cost that can be reduced whilst few of the other things are reduceable....