Mr. Gruff

Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

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1 hour ago, AD14 said:

Apparently Jamie's Italian Aberdeen restaurant is to be one of the branches to close.

 

Partially due to oil economy down turn in the Aberdeen area for this restaurant. More to do with mediocre food, small portions, poor location, and unattractive pricing.

Not the death knell level that was the Shell cancellation of their proposed energy centre, or the closing of Bruce Millers.

Still poignant and apocryphal. And not the last by a long shot. Aberdeen is in deep sh1t.

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Timbuk3   

Just convert them empty rigs to social housing and the housing crisis is solved.  Lovely sea views, commute is not so good, but then there aren't any jobs anyway.

Rent them out, job done.  Plus decom issue is resolved. 

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Further for somebody on here who's been banging on about the false economy of DECOM in the UK and Aberdeen... me.

Many people in working in the city and shire still believe that it will come back.... all wearing the same brand of rose tinted glasses perhaps?

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/128347/taxpayers-face-24bn-bill-north-sea-decommissioning-reports/

Quote

A warning has been raised taxpayers could face a £24 billion bill for decommissioning oil and gas fields in the North Sea.

The financial hit could threaten to clear out the remaining tax revenues from an industry which has been a regular stream of income.

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/british-taxpayers-face-£24bn-bill-close-north-sea-oilfields

Quote

British taxpayers are facing a £24bn bill for decommissioning oil and gas fields in the North Sea, according to new estimates.

Energy research group Wood Mackenzie, which carried out the projections, said decommissioning costs threatened to wipe out remaining tax revenues from the industry.

The figure, based on the cost of plugging wells and dismantling platforms and pipelines, is 50 per cent higher than the Treasury’s forecast of a £16bn public liability.

Wood Mackenzie’s forecast says that oil companies are expected to spend £53bn to wind down operations, with around half recouped from the Treasury through tax relief.

Fiona Legate, an analyst at the group, told the Financial Times that the North Sea would become “a significant annual expenditure for government, rather than a provider of income” in years to come.

Spyguy has noted it above as well.

... and the rest. I would double that number, perhaps triple it... consider the very real possibility that many smaller operators will run into 'financial' difficulties when it comes time to open their DECOM wallets... heading to administration and lumping UK.GOV with it...ergo, you and me.

And on the job front... a few of the more recognisable brands here had town halls before Christmas... and a lot of senior people, lifers, have (finally) been given the punt.

The Aberdeen engineering & contracting gravy train is over and as I've stated previously, this city is in the sh1t.

This is the crash you've all been waiting for.

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5 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

The Aberdeen engineering & contracting gravy train is over and as I've stated previously, this city is in the sh1t.

This is the crash you've all been waiting for.

While I fully agree the O&G honeymoon phase is well and truly over, what is stunning is the resilience shown in house prices.

There is a massive glut in unsold property, job losses, population flight, rents falling dramatically, yet more new builds in the pipeline, falling sales volumes.......I mean all these are signs for a crash, right?!

But look at the prices, no doubt they are steadily moving down but nowhere near what it should be taking the market scenario into account.

The bubble just keeps filling up!

 

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AD14   
6 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

Further for somebody on here who's been banging on about the false economy of DECOM in the UK and Aberdeen... me.

The thing about decommissioning is that it keeps on getting put back and back. Lots of money spent in the last boom, and indeed throughout the 2000s, on trying to prolong the life of existing infrastructure and assets with new drilling and tie-backs. I don't envisage much decommissioning for the rest of this decade but I don't know what things will be like in the 2020s. A lot of life extension projects seem to have had target dates of the mid to late 2020s. If everything all happens at once it could well put a lot of pressure those who have skills relating to decommissioning, but otherwise is a one hit and it's gone type thing. Are current decommissioning projects like Brent, Miller, Murchison, Dunlin and Janice creating a lot of jobs?

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2 hours ago, shortbread said:

There is a massive glut in unsold property, job losses, population flight, rents falling dramatically, yet more new builds in the pipeline, falling sales volumes.......I mean all these are signs for a crash, right?!

 

It's like there's a cartell trying to price fix, right ?


That'll be the banker backed British government. me thinks

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11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

It's like there's a cartell trying to price fix, right ?


That'll be the banker backed British government. me thinks

I don't know.

Maybe the low interest rates are helping owners wait longer for the 'upcoming' boom?!

B-O-O-M it certainly will be, one way or the other!

 

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spyguy   
12 hours ago, AD14 said:

The thing about decommissioning is that it keeps on getting put back and back. Lots of money spent in the last boom, and indeed throughout the 2000s, on trying to prolong the life of existing infrastructure and assets with new drilling and tie-backs. I don't envisage much decommissioning for the rest of this decade but I don't know what things will be like in the 2020s. A lot of life extension projects seem to have had target dates of the mid to late 2020s. If everything all happens at once it could well put a lot of pressure those who have skills relating to decommissioning, but otherwise is a one hit and it's gone type thing. Are current decommissioning projects like Brent, Miller, Murchison, Dunlin and Janice creating a lot of jobs?

The only thing that creates O+G is when they are drilling and setting up rigs.

Once a rig is up+going the labour requirements fall off a cliff.

Even if they have to dsiamntle a rig I doubt itll take much labour - just drain any gunk then blow it up.

Its more likely the rigs will be stripped and left to rust.

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Wow, so now all helos are grounded.

S92 update: https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/128451/breaking-sikorsky-grounds-s-92-helicopters-north-sea-platform-incident/?_ga=1.183059494.1669311361.1484045378

Quote

All North Sea helicopter flights have been grounded today over safety fears. Sikorsky S92 helicopters have returned to base following a probe into a recent incident on a North Sea platform. It’s understood the request to ground the S-92s was at the request of Sikorsky.

With Apache binning CHC Scotia, it shouldn't be long before they're once again bankrupted. 

As for the town halls and the grim announcements many heard over the holiday period, Centrica is cutting senior staff ad the first in the headlines doing so.

Rumour also has it that they are for sale and may re-home their operations to Europe.

There are others cutting too, just watch the headlines. Lots of senior people in the drilling and marine side of things.

Shell is doing their dirty and atypically unethical best to abandon their mess in the North Sea and lump it on the taxpayers... I fully expect the Tories to acquiesce to this and fork over more of our money in the process.

After the downturn of '14-'16 and the forecast of '17 being even more grim... coupled with this Brexit mess, team Trump, and the ongoing migration/terrorism threat.. huge disinvestment out of renewables...wrapping up of the AWPR......2017 is going to unprecedented in our lives. Next? Carbon capture... biofuel & recycling plant... ghost housing estate...harbour expansion? Lots of things that will be net consumers on the public purse.

Aberdeen is going to take even more of a kicking. Be wise to get yourself liquid and able to depart when the sh1t really hits the fan here.

 

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AD14   

Citylets 2016 Q4 report out now:

https://www.citylets.co.uk/research/reports/pdf/Citylets-Quarterly-Report-Q4-16.pdf?ref=bl

After looking like they were bottoming out during Q2-Q3, they again decreased during Q4. 

According to the report, one, two and three bedroom properties are now below that of Glasgow. 

The index, taking 2008 Q1 at 100, is now at below 90 - 89.3.

"Total" - which I'm assuming is an average of some sort - is below £800 now - £790 pcm.

Basically, at the moment, all categories of rent listed in the report are at their lowest levels since the reports were first released for Q1 2008.

"Time to let" also taking increased last quarter.

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spyguy   

Well, my O+G relative has announced hes taking early retirement.

A couple of years ago, he was taking it easy.

A year ago that became taking a break.

It OK, accrording to my Mum 'He'll be OK, he'll have a pension..'

Why he'd have a pension when he removed himself from UK taxation and became a contractor.

He's already had one 2 year hiatus about 10 years ago.

We'll see. I expect him to be broke by summer.

 

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sfr   

So did Dolphin Drilling too it would seem.

The contractors don't make the news. Staffies make a wee bit of a headline. Still bleeding people nonetheless. 

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17 hours ago, sfr said:

So did Dolphin Drilling too it would seem.

The contractors don't make the news. Staffies make a wee bit of a headline. Still bleeding people nonetheless. 

All offshore drillers are in trouble. Dolphin especially.

Some are working the Norge side of things, but that is due to the way they licence. The UK... well it's not looking great. IADC prospectus reports make for grim reading.

Sure, there's well abandonment work for some, but the financial returns simply aren't there for most investors for their more traditional charters.

Those cutting or in trouble; Transocean, Dolphin, Awilco, Maersk Drilling, Rowan, Ensco, Odjfell, Diamond, Stenna, Global, Noble, etc....

Let's not forget the support rigs; floatels, accommodations, barges, etc... all in trouble.

Their services are just not in demand. Fracking, the middle east,  non-offshore operations are taking priority with investors.

And with that goes all the engineering, pipe layers, DSV's & divers, crane barges & heavy lifting, project management, logistics, HSEQ, inspection, mechanic & electrical services... catering, chemicals & consumables... even SKY tv licencing. Tons of stuff.

Even one rig not on station earning has a HUGE knock-on effect and can put 100's or more out of work, on and offshore.

Far too many people are unaware of the huge capital and human investment in this business.... even ones working in it... actually lots working in it are completely oblivious. They just await(ed) their lottery wins each month in the form of a bank transfer in their contractor business account.

I suppose like everything else, with the silly money & returns came the silly investments.

Gravy train over.

Edited by cashinmattress

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On 1/11/2017 at 6:35 PM, sfr said:

So did Dolphin Drilling too it would seem.

The contractors don't make the news. Staffies make a wee bit of a headline. Still bleeding people nonetheless. 

Neighbor told us yesterday that Baker Hughes have been sending out "at risk" letters this week so that's another place letting people go.

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spyguy   
3 hours ago, Ignorantbliss said:

Neighbor told us yesterday that Baker Hughes have been sending out "at risk" letters this week so that's another place letting people go.

The surprising thing is that not everyone in ABx has received those letters already.

 

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3 hours ago, Ignorantbliss said:

Neighbor told us yesterday that Baker Hughes have been sending out "at risk" letters this week so that's another place letting people go.

All the oilfield services guys are at risk.

I know of people who are under consultation at just about all the big names... or who are now one of the many CV's chasing mostly trivial jobs at fractional salaries all across the UK.

There have also been several town hall meetings for larger firms in the past few weeks.

'Some' drillers have crossed fingers that they might just pick up a small contract by Q4 this year... but that is more hopeful thinking IMO from BD & MD types trying to keep the banks and shareholders at bay.

Please do cut the 'good ol boys' out, and further, cut out the products of their nepotism. There are some really good engineers & techs that can't get past these feckin pain in the ass and mostly clueless teuch's.

 

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babo456   

Enermech have just bought two companies apparently and also are in the middle of giving more people the heave-ho according to my pal who works there.

Unsure if these two companies are local or not but I'd guess if they were (or even abroad) that if there are duplication of roles etc that won't be good for jobs.

Also in regards to seeing more homes under offer or sold, I can't see it.

4600 odd on ASPC and as far as I can see most of the 400 that disapeered have been delisted over Christmas. 

Rent now cheaper than Glasgow - surely we are heading closer to the bubble popping?

Oh and on a side note spoke to an acquintence who has just bought (paid 8k over..) I asked where the seller was moving too etc Seller paid 15k over for the house they were buying because they are seeing it as an investment!!!!......

Edited by babo456

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1 hour ago, babo456 said:

Enermech have just bought two companies apparently and also are in the middle of giving more people the heave-ho according to my pal who works there.

They endure through buying work and selling on their invoices.

Rock bottom prices with near zero margins, further eroded with factoring levies and fees.

Name of the game? Anything to keep their competitors from winning work.

A good strategy... survive one more accounting period than your competitor... as long as you can sell your debt.

However, when it all flattens out or your competitor goes bust... you'd better be able to turn a real profit or you'll join them quickly.

Investors won't accept dilly dally and sh1tty yields.

We'll see. Perhaps they are due a sell up and carve off... like many firms in Aberdeen.

I think they had 5 or 6 rounds of redundancy last year.

They've taken on some new people too, more higher ups.

Plenty of chiefs....

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AD14   

Latest house price index released today. Minor decline for Aberdeen (-0.8%) MoM and 8.7% YoY. Still sitting between 2012-13 levels. 

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spyguy   
22 hours ago, cashinmattress said:

They endure through buying work and selling on their invoices.

Rock bottom prices with near zero margins, further eroded with factoring levies and fees.

Name of the game? Anything to keep their competitors from winning work.

A good strategy... survive one more accounting period than your competitor... as long as you can sell your debt.

However, when it all flattens out or your competitor goes bust... you'd better be able to turn a real profit or you'll join them quickly.

Investors won't accept dilly dally and sh1tty yields.

We'll see. Perhaps they are due a sell up and carve off... like many firms in Aberdeen.

I think they had 5 or 6 rounds of redundancy last year.

They've taken on some new people too, more higher ups.

Plenty of chiefs....

Last man standing works when you have cyclical change.

North sea oil is more structural shift now - way too expensive to extract for the forseeable future.

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