Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

[shortbread]

8 hours ago, babo456 said:

Noticed this property up at 195k to start with. Then down to 192k then 189k after 3-4 months or so on gumtree, now put up again recently at 195k on gumtree again.

Whats that about. Seller chancing their arm?

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/343629/7-Fenerty-Place/Aberdeen/

I had noticed something similar in the rental market as well. My feeling is that home owners are now creating a buffer to advertised prices knowing fully well that they need to leave enough room for discounting. The days of offers above advertised numbers or fixed prices are over. One needs to be prepared to negotiate and perhaps putting your best offer upfront might not be the best idea in that case. 

Or I could be wrong and house prices are on an upswing!

[babo456]

I was trying to find original prices for the Donside development in Tillydrone.

A big chunk was for afforable homes I recall.

I couldn't find the 2-3 bed semi prices but found some 2 bed flat prices. 110-130k. Most about 110k pretty sure what 6 years ago? So I would hazard a guess that this property was prob up for 130-140k? Now valued at nearly an extra 60k? In 6 years? 

Leaves a bad taste if you can just flip these afforable properties.

Did they not do what they do now and retain the house/flat for the council/HA's, the owner has to legally offer the council the house back, then retains said property and sells it on again at an 'affordable' price with the same caveat? Only if the council can't shift a home then does it go on the open market.

[delboypass]

Watching flat rentals just now via favourites list and a LOT just rented in the last month to fortnight..

If you got money or a few mates, you can basically rent a 200m2 house for over £1400 .. crazy

 

[Diver Dan]

8 hours ago, delboypass said:

Watching flat rentals just now via favourites list and a LOT just rented in the last month to fortnight..

If you got money or a few mates, you can basically rent a 200m2 house for over £1400 .. crazy

 

Are you saying that you are seeing prices rise?

In the sales side, a number of places get added to ASPC every day but the total for sale hasn't risen above 5050 yet. Are places getting let out instead or are people actually swallowing the "great time to buy" line?

[Venger]

9 minutes ago, Diver Dan said:

Are you saying that you are seeing prices rise?

In the sales side, a number of places get added to ASPC every day but the total for sale hasn't risen above 5050 yet. Are places getting let out instead or are people actually swallowing the "great time to buy" line?

If people are buying they are making their own market decisions.

Read from 200 pages to 2007 on this thread and you can read the same posts full of special-one 'I know best' and 'everyone else in market is a victim of EAs/media/bankers'.

Quote

are people actually swallowing the "great time to buy" line?

 

[Diver Dan]

1 hour ago, Venger said:

Read from 200 pages to 2007 on this thread and you can read the same posts full of special-one 'I know best' and 'everyone else in market is a victim of EAs/media/bankers'.

You have a point. II' still seeing friends and acquaintances dropping their sale and rental prices on some quite nice places around the town and still not getting any bites. 

One, for example, going up for auction soon for at least the 2nd time after having been on an EA's books for nearly a year.  Guide price this timd >£50k less than valuation but still >£20k above what they paid in 2009.

I just wish there was more data to base my opinions on.

[reverand_cat]

5 hours ago, Diver Dan said:

Are you saying that you are seeing prices rise?

In the sales side, a number of places get added to ASPC every day but the total for sale hasn't risen above 5050 yet. Are places getting let out instead or are people actually swallowing the "great time to buy" line?

There seems to be very few properties coming onto ASPC every day now. The ones that do come on a lot seem to be from the estates of deceased. This is entirely expected I guess, many people simply do not want to sell now as they know they won't get "what it's worth".

 

They could be waiting a very long time of course...

 

Otherwise, looking at what IS selling. Volumes are getting worse every month. October was bad... November seems even worse.

 

If your house is over £300k (3bed detached and more category) it seems very few are selling. What is selling is either stuff that was bought over a decade ago, and the occasional recent buy, thought they are selling at a loss. The prices they are selling at in this category look to vary from about 2006 prices to 2008 prices. And yes a lot selling don't have a prior listing on RoS which implies they are old family homes bought pre 90s.

With regards to sub £300k category this is where it gets weirder. Some are still selling at close to what would be 2014 prices (mad I know... But there you go), it would seem some people as long as they can get the mortgage are still willing to pay the sticker value. The vast majority are probably averaging around 2011/2012 prices which is before Aberdeen really went crazy again. Some are going below, again some above.

I suspect that eventually this collapse of the upper end of housing market will filter down more noticeably in the statistics. Whether you can sell your sub £300k flat / house at the values above though seems to be luck. There are lots sitting that don't get nibbles but I've also heard of people in this category selling for offers over within a week. Madness but then there you go...

Also it looks like new build sales are collapsing too around end of Q3 this year.

Overall btw Q4 statistics this year will be dire and grim and I suspect will put an end to some of the continued madness in the sub £300k bracket. Repossessions coming online in greater numbers now too.

[Alba]

I wonder what is going on with this property that has just come on the market.  https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/349865/20a---Polmuir-Road/Aberdeen/

It sold in 2007 for £520,000, and now on for offers over £499,000, so back to 2007 pricing, and possibly a loss after 9 years of ownership.  It looks pretty uninspiring internally, and the kitchen and bathroom fitments appear to be in the budget range.

Is this the end of a long term let or oil redundancy?

[cashinmattress]

16 hours ago, delboypass said:

Watching flat rentals just now via favourites list and a LOT just rented in the last month to fortnight..

If you got money or a few mates, you can basically rent a 200m2 house for over £1400 .. crazy

 

2,178 on gumtree just now, 800 ASPC,  1,176 on citylet.

Market has gone nowhere.... we are supposed to be filled to the gunnels with students etc... a LOT hasn't rented out as well dellboypass.

Plus 5,030 bargain properties over on ASPC to buy.

And 2017 CAPEX/FDP is going to make 2016 look like a boom year.

Almost all majors, supermajors, services, et al have forecast medium to large cost reduction measures for 2017. Saudi just sacked $266bn of projects FFS.

Job outlook for O&G in North Sea if absolutely dire; recruiters, websites, job portals.

There are barely double digits in the number of discipline engineer places available. That trend has been pretty constant the last quarter or two. And it's not much better globally.

A bit more in O&G finance and  administration side of things, but that will mostly be sweeping up the mess and facilitating more cuts.

If you have a permanent O&G position in Aberdeen now you are very fortunate.

If you are a contractor I hope you've not blown it all on a merc, gold watches, sleeve tattoos, property, expensive burds...

Aberdeen won't see any 'rebound' until oil is comfortably back in the triple digits.... and that 'rebound' won't be anything like it was before.

 

Edited November 10, 2016 by cashinmattress

[quine]

1 hour ago, Alba said:

I wonder what is going on with this property that has just come on the market.  https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/349865/20a---Polmuir-Road/Aberdeen/

It sold in 2007 for £520,000, and now on for offers over £499,000, so back to 2007 pricing, and possibly a loss after 9 years of ownership.  It looks pretty uninspiring internally, and the kitchen and bathroom fitments appear to be in the budget range.

Is this the end of a long term let or oil redundancy?

I noticed this one.  It says "architect designed"  Guffaw.  Very junior architect I presume. 

[quine]

6 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

2,178 on gumtree just now, 800 ASPC,  1,176 on citylet.

Market has gone nowhere.... we are supposed to be filled to the gunnels with students etc... a LOT hasn't rented out as well dellboypass.

Plus 5,030 bargain properties over on ASPC to buy.

And 2017 CAPEX/FDP is going to make 2016 look like a boom year.

Almost all majors, supermajors, services, et al have forecast medium to large cost reduction measures for 2017.

Job outlook for O&G in North Sea if absolutely dire; recruiters, websites, job portals.

There are barely double digits in the number of discipline engineer places available. That trend has been pretty constant the last quarter or two. And it's not much better globally.

A bit more in O&G finance and  administration side of things, but that will mostly be sweeping up the mess and facilitating more cuts.

If you have a permanent O&G position in Aberdeen now you are very fortunate.

If you are a contractor I hope you've not blown it all on a merc, gold watches, sleeve tattoos, property, expensive burds...

I've seen a lot of properties being "taken off" the ASPC lately.  Whether they are being removed over winter for a fresh new start next year or they have rented out...who knows.

Every week I'm also seeing properties that were marked "under offer" coming back "no longer under offer" so I presume mortgage lenders are being strict about valuations etc. 

[cashinmattress]

1 hour ago, quine said:

I noticed this one.  It says "architect designed"  Guffaw.  Very junior architect I presume. 

The quasimodo of barn conversions?

It sure looks cheap and ugly.

The breeze blocks, MFI's best kitchen suite, lino kitchen flooring, matte eggshell undercoat, pine trim galore, and £15/sq.m cream pile carpet really pays off.

Everything in that house wouldn't amount to much more than £15-20k for a saavy builder.

And the location ain't great. Sure ain't going to be any motorcycles zooming up that coarse gravel path.

[shortbread]

5 hours ago, reverand_cat said:

There seems to be very few properties coming onto ASPC every day now. The ones that do come on a lot seem to be from the estates of deceased. This is entirely expected I guess, many people simply do not want to sell now as they know they won't get "what it's worth".

 

They could be waiting a very long time of course...

 

Otherwise, looking at what IS selling. Volumes are getting worse every month. October was bad... November seems even worse.

 

Its not surprising sales volumes have fallen of a cliff, this is more reflective of the actual economic situation in Aberdeen rather than the house prices.

Home owners are still stubbornly sticking to their advertised prices, like it was mentioned many times on this thread its very difficult for people to accept their house prices have fallen. I think it will take a lot to crack the dogged determination!

Quote

With regards to sub £300k category this is where it gets weirder. Some are still selling at close to what would be 2014 prices (mad I know... But there you go), it would seem some people as long as they can get the mortgage are still willing to pay the sticker value. The vast majority are probably averaging around 2011/2012 prices which is before Aberdeen really went crazy again. Some are going below, again some above.

There are many gullible friends I know who took the bite lately as they have been looking to buy for a long time and have always been outbid during the boom years.

Also, something that was discussed earlier was builders helping existing clients upgrade, buying back existing new builds and moving them into bigger ones. This would essentially be recorded as a double sale and also skews prices as well!

[delboypass]

Yes this was all rental I was watching..

I have a list of about 20 decent flats.. i would say none moved for about a month.. in last week about 10 rented out..

BUT.. these flats are priced at like £600 for a 2 bed that was £900 a month a year ago and reduced twice..

If you look on Rightmove, it shows you last reduced date..

Property price about £180k .. rental price £600 .. 4% yield without taking off the estate agent cut and expenses etc..

1 property was empty for 5 months..so owner will be paying council tax (Band E - £1500) .. rental market collapsing and they are getting desperate i think is what im saying and now cheaper to rent than to mortgage in Aberdeen it would seem.

A lot of properties come onto market with unrealistic prices but once they are at a very realistic monthly price, they will let... maybe people moving from other rentals.

I know 1 was £1000 a month on Queens Road.. they took the landlord down to £800 a month for a 6 month contract. 

All the new student builds just kicking in too adding to market woes..! 300+ rooms

[South Lorne]

5 minutes ago, delboypass said:

Yes this was all rental I was watching..

I have a list of about 20 decent flats.. i would say none moved for about a month.. in last week about 10 rented out..

BUT.. these flats are priced at like £600 for a 2 bed that was £900 a month a year ago and reduced twice..

If you look on Rightmove, it shows you last reduced date..

Property price about £180k .. rental price £600 .. 4% yield without taking off the estate agent cut and expenses etc..

1 property was empty for 5 months..so owner will be paying council tax (Band E - £1500) .. rental market collapsing and they are getting desperate i think is what im saying and now cheaper to rent than to mortgage in Aberdeen it would seem.

A lot of properties come onto market with unrealistic prices but once they are at a very realistic monthly price, they will let... maybe people moving from other rentals.

I know 1 was £1000 a month on Queens Road.. they took the landlord down to £800 a month for a 6 month contract. 

All the new student builds just kicking in too adding to market woes..! 300+ rooms

...Aberdeen is a unique market.....

[shortbread]

8 hours ago, delboypass said:

Yes this was all rental I was watching..

I have a list of about 20 decent flats.. i would say none moved for about a month.. in last week about 10 rented out..

BUT.. these flats are priced at like £600 for a 2 bed that was £900 a month a year ago and reduced twice..

If you look on Rightmove, it shows you last reduced date..

Property price about £180k .. rental price £600 .. 4% yield without taking off the estate agent cut and expenses etc..

1 property was empty for 5 months..so owner will be paying council tax (Band E - £1500) .. rental market collapsing and they are getting desperate i think is what im saying and now cheaper to rent than to mortgage in Aberdeen it would seem.

A lot of properties come onto market with unrealistic prices but once they are at a very realistic monthly price, they will let... maybe people moving from other rentals.

I know 1 was £1000 a month on Queens Road.. they took the landlord down to £800 a month for a 6 month contract. 

All the new student builds just kicking in too adding to market woes..! 300+ rooms

The demand and supply equation of the house rental business is more reflective of the real market conditions. It's difficult to create a rental bubble, in the absence of tenants and population flight from the city, landlords cannot inflate rents!

Your measure of the difference between the fall in rents vs the fall in house prices show that the Aberdeen house prices are still unrealistic.

[cashinmattress]

2 hours ago, shortbread said:

Aberdeen house prices are still unrealistic.

Indeed they are nowhere near acceptable.... measure against some incomes and say a £200k average.

Minimum living wage worker ~ 15k

Starting teacher ~ £21k

Starting police officer ~ £23k

Council worker ~ £25k

Construction worker ~ £27k

Oil and gas worker ~ £45k? (upper end, going on current market)

[TheWormIsTurning]

7 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

Indeed they are nowhere near acceptable.... measure against some incomes and say a £200k average.

Minimum living wage worker ~ 15k

Starting teacher ~ £21k

Starting police officer ~ £23k

Council worker ~ £25k

Construction worker ~ £27k

Oil and gas worker ~ £45k? (upper end, going on current market)

Teachers, police and nurses get £30K + after a few years and getting a basic promotion. The latter2 also have very nice overtime deals.

For me its sad that the despite an entire industry being decimated in a one trick pony town that the falls have been so minimal and slow. Doesn't hold much hope for southern England if all we get is a slowdown.

 

[cashinmattress]

2 hours ago, TheWormIsTurning said:

Teachers, police and nurses get £30K + after a few years and getting a basic promotion. The latter2 also have very nice overtime deals.

For me its sad that the despite an entire industry being decimated in a one trick pony town that the falls have been so minimal and slow. Doesn't hold much hope for southern England if all we get is a slowdown.

 

Engerland and Jockland have different pay structures....vary a bit, but normally you don't get to 30k until about 3 years. Plus in a teachers case and many other requiring higher qualifications you will be having student loans etc hanging over your head. Then you need a car, cost of living.

The falls will come. This bubble took about 15 years to inflate, could take that or longer to deflate. Source: Japan

And it's not just the oil and gas that's the one trick pony. The UK is. When you start looking at real value proposition outwith housing and fancy finance, it's hard to see what holds up to scrutiny if you're not in the establishment.

[EME]

Poor comparison there

A starting oil and gas worker gets nowhere near £45k per year

All new office starts with a degree get under £30k

 

 

[stingray192]

Someone making the beds on an oil rig earns over £40 k a year I know several friends in there late twenties are earning over £100 k a year, the oil is still paying a huge amount of money hence no  major house price crash! I unfortunately don't!    I was at a party last week in an oil workers house, the only lighting being used was Jo Malone candles, at least 15. At £48-£60 ago .   The extravagance is unbelievable, everyone there thinks oil will rise again Ina year or two

[spyguy]

On 11/11/2016 at 11:46 AM, cashinmattress said:

Indeed they are nowhere near acceptable.... measure against some incomes and say a £200k average.

Minimum living wage worker ~ 15k

Starting teacher ~ £21k

Starting police officer ~ £23k

Council worker ~ £25k

Construction worker ~ £27k

Oil and gas worker ~ £45k? (upper end, going on current market)

Apart from O+G and Construction, all the above are salaried employees.

And thats salaried employees in the public sector - where you'd have to commit mass murder to be even considered fro the sack.

O+G are are self employed contractors.

No work, no contract. Fck off.

They might earn 45k for doing a dumb job - scaffolding, painiting, cleanign the toilets etc.

But no comntract means no money.

For the first time since North Sea oil started, I know noone woring offshorew in the North.

None.

Im from what could be described as greatre smog land - Middlesborugh/NE.

Forthe last 30 odd eyars there has always been quite a few people in my home village working the North Sea.

Sometimes lots, sometimes not many. But always some.

The bets I can come with now is someone working in Angola. And hes clinging on by his finger tips.

 

 

[spyguy]

On 11/11/2016 at 4:33 PM, EME said:

Poor comparison there

A starting oil and gas worker gets nowhere near £45k per year

All new office starts with a degree get under £30k

 

 

Going offsore, even to empty the bins, puts an extra 20K on your pay packet.

 

[AD14]

On 10/11/2016 at 5:32 AM, Diver Dan said:

In the sales side, a number of places get added to ASPC every day but the total for sale hasn't risen above 5050 yet. Are places getting let out instead or are people actually swallowing the "great time to buy" line?

I think that the same thing happened last year: a reduction in the number of properties in the lead up to Christmas. At the moment ASPC is at 5007. It could be that people are taking their properties off the market, either for a while or permanently. The RoS sales numbers show a trend where sales bottom out over the winter period and peak in the summer, and this is an established trend that has been occurring long before the downturn. 

 

[shortbread]

The Aberdeen airport passenger numbers continue to fall...

Quote

October passenger numbers at Aberdeen International Airport (AIA) were down by nearly 10%, against a year ago.
Figures released by AIA bosses yesterday show 272,292 people travelled through the airport last month, 9.7% fewer than in October 2015.
International and domestic services were both down by 8%, with North Sea helicopter passenger numbers down by 20%.
The latest total represents a 21st consecutive month of year-on-year decline at the airport as a weak local economy continues to bite into demand for flights.

https://www.energyvoice.com/other-news/124099/oil-gas-downturn-continues-hit-passenger-numbers-aia/

Considering this is almost the second straight year of falls, the Aberdeen airport must have lost about a quarter of its passenger traffic since its heydays!