Mr. Gruff

Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

5,120 posts in this topic

One of the 'savvy' I know is already doing that. Mental gymnastics whilst subsiding his tenants. Maybe he should go for registered charity status...

One would think the next 'wave' would be summer as one load of students give up leases at the summer break, then a lull before they all want to rent again.

That's what I did when I was at Uni (in Edinburgh).

Have a friend who has just got a residential job in Qatar. Taking family out there. Renting his house out on Bridge of Don. I mentioned his pricing will have to be 'keen'. Looking forward to get first hand of market

I've also heard rumour (could be untrue) that a lot of oil companies and companies associated have leases on some residential property that will be up around April this year.

I guess would make sense for tax years... But just a rumour.

If this is true dumpy dumpy time.

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Also to add the development 'Forbes Place' at the Dandara Stoneywood development are all nearing finish.

This is a collection of 220+ flats / houses that were bought by a pension fund last year just to rent out.

You heard that right, 220 units for rental are about to hit the market.

It's going from DIRE to CATASTROPHIC for the BTL brigade.

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One of the 'savvy' I know is already doing that. Mental gymnastics whilst subsiding his tenants. Maybe he should go for registered charity status...

One would think the next 'wave' would be summer as one load of students give up leases at the summer break, then a lull before they all want to rent again.

That's what I did when I was at Uni (in Edinburgh).

Have a friend who has just got a residential job in Qatar. Taking family out there. Renting his house out on Bridge of Don. I mentioned his pricing will have to be 'keen'. Looking forward to get first hand of market

Not to mention most of the Student Flat developmemts are ready for completion for next semester.

Loads of new student flats on Powis Place are almost done.

Everything is just coming together at the same time.

Cashinmattress is right... It's 'the perfect storm'

Be prepared!

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So how long for rents to crash 50% from peak ? Another year or so perhaps ?

Wont be long until there are ten flats in a street - all empty and causing their 'savvy' BTL owners coronaries - and one just thinks '****** it - I want £600 but £300 a month at least pays half my BTL mortgage.'

No idea.

There will certainly be a lot of folk who haven't ever considered the relationship that Aberdeen has to speculative capital, property and oil price.

Or head in sand scenario by in large.

A large part of the problem here in Aberdeen is that many businesses created wholly unattainable models for growth, based on trends which defied the laws of gravity, so to speak.

Speculation drove up the oil price.

Oil profits 'look' bad, so companies put lots of CAPEX into development to offset taxes.

Governments are happy to play ball, it makes them look accountable to the taxpayer.

Development takes attention off of the 'evil' corporations, and in doing so creates a huge demand for labour.

Problem is, that kicks the can down the road, but eventually you hit a cliff or a wall... which is what is happening now.

We have a glut of oil because it was the product of kicking the can, creating all kinds of infrastructure and technologies = more cheap oil, efficient process.

Then you have the naive.. folk concluding that the outcome is due to 'natural' circumstance.

Well, that brings in the next problem. Unattainable business models.

Companies rearing their heads in the late 2000's were pushing for massive growth. Doubling, tripling, turnovers every year apparently.

If you want to turn over a million, a billion, it takes a LOT of people. Those people need to be trained up and become competent in the machine.

When you have multiple firms offering these models, you have competition, which drives up wages & costs.

It also drives people up the 'ladder' quickly in their career progression.

Folk on here have spoken of going from graduate to prime minister salary in a few years.

They also spoke how they were smart. Were they?

Utter madness yes. Unsustainable yes.

Now that the bottom has fallen out of oil for reasons stated there is absolutely no room to maneuver.

So many folk on big wages with fancy job titles face huge salary cuts and massive demotions.

I'm sure there are plenty of 'something' engineers or 'something' managers who are now applying for shelf stacker jobs at the grocers.

Their CV's are going to be very unattractive to firms which have embraced low risk, grown organically.

Aberdeen, Houston, Stavanger and the contractors within it are all now victims of their own success, as it were.

Then at the other end, you have housing. A lagging indicator.

It boomed just behind oil price and speculation.

Now it's busting, and quite obviously lagging.

EDIT: prime example of why the above 'business models' can't work. Paper says North Sea revenue in '11/12 was £10.9b, in '15 it was £2.25. Not many aggressive, 'bought' business models will flourish eh? I'm sure plenty on here can think of at least two big firms that are in trouble... if not in the public eye & media, but through observation and watching the flow of work and contracts, and the prices of contracts.

Example: you can survive on an 8% margin on £500 million, but you certainly can't survive on that margin for say £125 million without some HUGE changes and MASSIVE cuts to your OPEX.

Edited by cashinmattress

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And something else to consider. Bit of a curve ball. But the AWPR.....

I'm from the central belt and have seen many a small and large bypass/ring road being built.

Frees up traffic, people can get A to B quicker. Decimates trade in the towns/passing trade.

Where folk may have stopped cos it was close, or passing, didn't want to wait in traffic etc.

It'll be quickest way. And use retail parks close to main arteries..

Rips the heart out of a town. Shops close etc etc

AWPR due completion 2017...

Edited by sfr

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If anyone is at all unaware of the arrogance and entitlement of oil and gas engineers, I just read on LinkedIn this job advert:

(I can't copy and paste, so I'll write it out)

Recruiter: Hi, I am recruiting for Commissioning Manager for the UAE, please read and...

Comment 1: What a crap wage

Comment 2: That is a crappy wage

Comment 4: £6k PCM tax free

All the comments from people who are "looking for new opportunities" and think that £6,000 a month tax free is a crappy wage.

It's unbelievable.

Does anyone know how much commissioning engineers get paid in the baked bean industry or even nuclear or power?

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If anyone is at all unaware of the arrogance and entitlement of oil and gas engineers, I just read on LinkedIn this job advert:

(I can't copy and paste, so I'll write it out)

Recruiter: Hi, I am recruiting for Commissioning Manager for the UAE, please read and...

Comment 1: What a crap wage

Comment 2: That is a crappy wage

Comment 4: £6k PCM tax free

All the comments from people who are "looking for new opportunities" and think that £6,000 a month tax free is a crappy wage.

It's unbelievable.

Does anyone know how much commissioning engineers get paid in the baked bean industry or even nuclear or power?

If that includes housing then its pretty damn good.

If not, then its still damn good compared to what you'd get here.

Welcome to the new normal.

But look at the mentality here. Folk posting 'crap wage' comments will be noticed.

LinkedIn is a social space yes, but also a giant information gatherer and analysis tool.

Some dimwits find it OK to post disparaging work / career related comments on Facebook, but doing that on an even more public portal.. and specifically a portal developed by industry for recruitment and marketing... is sheer lunacy.

I say enjoy your unemployment boys, comment away!

Also note that this will most likely be a contract, maybe rolling, and may only last 3 or 6 months. (although Palangot didn't specify)

The tax advantage for expats has been slowly repealed by the Exchequer over the years...

But yeah, the huge salary/contract cuts, big job demotions, all of it are going to sting like hell.

And the attitude stinks. Imagine having to ask these types to perform on their jobs. Just spit and venom.

I have had my run ins with these types plenty of times.

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Even if that doesnt include housing - thats you living a very nice life - spending lots of money on fun things AND saving maybe £30+ per year.

People who think thats a 'crappy wage' really need to get a vision of reality.

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Commissioning Engineer Salaries

17 Salaries Updated 22 Jan 2016

National Avg

£37,927

https://www.glassdoor.co.uk/Salaries/commissioning-engineer-salary-SRCH_KO0,22.htm

Aye. £37k sounds about right...

Those in O&G really need to have a look at other industry job postings and get a sense of reality on wages.

I suspect anyone from O&G searching for Planning Engineer, Cost Engineer, Document Controller in other industries may get a bit of a shock.

Believe it or not outside London £50k is a good wage. Many I speak to in Aberdeen don't believe me when I tell them that.

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I just had a look at houses on ASPC.

It's part of a tracker spreadsheet that I have.

I'm looking at the trend in houses coming on the market from 1 beds less than 80k up to 40 beds for less than £300k.

I noticed for the first time that if you want to buy a 4 bedroom house in Aberdeen, there are 82 for less than £300k and 283 for more than £300k.

4 x 4 bedroom houses are for sale for less than £200k, and only 25 for less than £250k - this is shocking!

The median 4+ bedroom price of a house is actually around £400k!

Assuming you can get a 25% deposit and 4 x salary mortgage. You'd need to be earning £75,000 a year to qualify.

Those prices are above the level of a lot of headteachers, doctors, pharmacists, council leaders.

So, even without an oil price crash, the market in Aberdeen looks frothy - and this is after 12 months of well known doom and gloom.

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Believe it or not outside London £50k is a good wage. Many I speak to in Aberdeen don't believe me when I tell them that.

Scaffolders and painters going offshore earn more than that.

All kinds of folk... lets call them chunks of tattooed meat... with pretty much bogus qualifications earned over an expensive week or two training at some industry 'school' + BOSIET were offshore making that money plus more for years.

Complete feckin eegits that are 1 step removed from prison IMO.

Folk you wouldn't trust to paint your garden fence, let along get on the working end of a chain block.

Riggers & slingers, scaffs, painters, abseilers, roustabouts, stewards.

This is the reality of what oil and gas was. Was is the operative word.

Earning more than a discipline engineer with a 1st class degree, maybe even with an extra MSc on top, who is say running an assembly plant somewhere outwith Aberdeen.

Earning more than a junior doctor, solicitor, teacher, lecturer, police/fire/ambulance, librarian...

Outside of Aberdeen nobody gives a sh1t about the woes of lost jobs and pay cuts to oil workers.

And a whole lot of people in Aberdeen are enjoying the crash, hoping that some semblance of fairness returns to the city.

Edited by cashinmattress

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https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/north-of-scotland/854809/cala-says-less-buoyant-housing-market-in-aberdeen-wont-last-forever/

Mr Brown added: While market conditions remain positive and government measures to support the housebuilding industry have undoubtedly had a positive impact at the lower end of the housing ladder, we continue to believe that the most effective way to resolve the overall housing undersupply is to increase production further up the chain.

Although support for affordable housing and first-time buyers is clearly important, the requirement for greater numbers of four and five-bedroom family homes is arguably even more critical when it comes to addressing the real housing needs of growing families across the county."

So basically sod building cheap homes for the "poor" and build big homes for our actually falling birth rates?

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I would also add yes they can't be hooped making "affordable" homes because it hurts their profit put very simply they do try offset the cost etc but what erks me even more is that they get out of their agreements with the local council in Aberdeen via various means and the council let them off! I remember mugiemoss? I could be wrong x100's of homes and something like 20 "affordable" ones and the council harping on how that was some sort of victory!

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babo456 - Houses & homes will be become affordable through higher inventory... Affordability is achieved when the commodity is no longer in demand.... ergo.. the more houses they build, the more affordable the market becomes laterally.. Aberdeen really needs homes built to bring prices down be it 'affordable' or just normal stock..

Above: Forbes place - 292 1 & 2 bed flats.. purchased by LaSalle management fund for £60 million..

Do the maths.. £205,000 per flat bought off-plan... when you factor in the split of the 1 & 2 beds.. that is an obscene amount for these units...

Someone is going to lose a lot of money and I doubt the fund cares as its someone elses money!!

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Shell hinting at more of the same.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/103700/shell-chief-executive-says-firm-prepared-cut-even/

Shell chief executive says firm is prepared to cut even further

EPC's, a middle man luxury in the good times, are facing big decisions.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/103694/amecs-targets-asset-sales-revamps-uk-pension-scheme-profits-take-19-hit/

Amec targets asset sales and revamps UK pension scheme as profits take a 19% hit

Amec has already agreed to a £1.7b cash injection from the banks to continue trading.

Oil price is have an effect.

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/north-sea-oil-revenue-falls-55-cent-between-2013-14-and-2014-15

North Sea oil revenue falls by 55 per cent between 2013-14 and 2014-15

http://www.oilandgas360.com/u-s-oil-production-sees-first-year-over-year-decline-in-four-years/

U.S. Oil Production Sees First Year-Over-Year Decline in Four Years

EIA-US-Monthly-Production.png

Lol. Talk about vested interest and advertising posing as journalism...

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/north-of-scotland/857271/this-is-probably-the-best-time-to-get-a-new-office-in-aberdeen-because-market-is-in-a-perfect-storm/

This is probably the best time to get a new office in Aberdeen… Because market is in a perfect storm

Incentives for occupiers in the Aberdeen office market have hit record levels as the city’s commercial property sector faces a perfect storm.

That is according to property firm Knight Frank, whose latest Aberdeen Office Market Activity Report has its launch before developers, solicitors and other key industry figures early today.

The document gathers data from last year and looks at the prospects for 2016, revealing some sorry statistics for the Granite City’s office market. Despite significant deals such as those for Annan House in the city centre, headline figures include a 61% fall in take-up and an 82% drop in investment volumes year-on -year.

Aberdeen’s office take-up last year totalled just 401,000sq ft. Katherine Monro, a partner in the Granite City office of Knight Frank, said: “With available space sitting at over 2 million sq ft, it is clear supply does and will continue to outstrip demand.

Yeah...ok... jump in and commit to a 10 year lease already... because rates are certainly not going to tank much further over the next few years?

Bonus...

A certain crane company is facing some serious questions.

https://www.energyvoice.com/other-news/healthandsafety/103674/investigation-launched-incident-murchison-platform/

An investigation has been launched by CNR International after an incident during a lifting operation on the Murchison platform.

The company said no one was injured as a result but that there was structural damage to one of the platform cranes.

thoPicu.jpg

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Amec has already agreed to a £1.7b cash injection from the banks to continue

Your and my favourite company has also been slashing layers of management. Mainly middle management from the popular chatter. Such as abolishing or amalgamating 'discipline' managers.

Mechanical/piping into one. Tech safety/process into one, Electrical/instruments into one etc etc. You get the picture.

The shiny new buzz phrase for this is called 'more for less'.

The hunger games continue. Next stop Battle Royale.

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Back to houses...in a village the size of Insch (population 2k) there are now 61 houses for sale and 6 for rent on ASPC alone. Most of the houses have been bought within the past 5 years by the look of things.

Another 12 months and I imagine these will have dropped to up to 50% of the asking price

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Back to houses...in a village the size of Insch (population 2k) there are now 61 houses for sale and 6 for rent on ASPC alone. Most of the houses have been bought within the past 5 years by the look of things.

Another 12 months and I imagine these will have dropped to up to 50% of the asking price

Hah, now 62 for sale. One more added within last 15 minutes

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Hah, now 62 for sale. One more added within last 15 minutes

Going up by the minute?

Do they look like they could be the makings of desperate sales?

I'm away on ASPC to look :D

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Hah, now 62 for sale. One more added within last 15 minutes

"Immaculately presented throughout the property is in ready to move into condition with the minimum of convenience". That's what I thought. 30 miles drive to Aberdeen.

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We know from previous crashes that some types of property in some types of area are more affected by the downturn than others.

Houses I just looked at in Insch look very expensive.

A lot more expensive than houses 30 miles south of Stonie

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"Immaculately presented throughout the property is in ready to move into condition with the minimum of convenience". That's what I thought. 30 miles drive to Aberdeen.

No. It does say 'easy commuting to Dyce and Aberdeen' :D

I hate steading conversions. Hate hate hate

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Wow, 131 houses, flats and plots for sale in Banchory! Approx 70 of those are over £350,000.00 :o

Edited to add on ASPC site. Haven't taken in to account Rightmove or Zoopla or the others.

Edited by quine

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