Dicky Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 A PROPERTY market 'rollercoaster' will see house prices in some areas plummet by £21,000 over the next three years, experts warned yesterday. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...page_id=57&ct=5 The more articles we see like this the greater the falls going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RRP Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 The more articles we see like this the greater the falls going to be.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Met an old friend on New Year's day. She is a highly qualified academic involved in setting up research fellowships etc. She asked if the housing market had turned. Groan !!! Can we set up a hit team and whack these buggers with oiled canes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon99 Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 These predicted falls aren't much, I'm hoping for a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 These predicted falls aren't much, I'm hoping for a lot more.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Simon99, Although I would like to see greater falls, I don't think we will. Do remember all that inflation is going up so the falls in real terms is not just 6% but nearer 10%. 2 years of that a 160K house will become 150K in the first year and 141K after the second. And your wages should of increased at the same pace of inflation. So if you earn 25K now, you should be on 26K next year, and 27.04K the year after. Note: with inflation at 4%. Does anybody follow. I would be over the moon with a 6% decrease in house prices! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 Did this article actually make the paper copy of the Daily Mail, or is it just an on-line article? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 Nick, That is true, as long as it happens. Bottom line is though that more jobs are shifting to temporary/short term contract/part time, many jobs are simply uncompetitive in a world market and will either be offshored or removed fromt he system and taxes are rising and will continue to rise. The real rate of inflation in necessary goods is far higher than the DVD player and plastic junk distorted CPI and energy prices and service cost rises are rampant. Even that 4% rise may not be enough to keep parity let alone make headway on the last decade's HPI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zzg113 Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 inflation is going up At a negligible rate. So if you earn 25K now, you should be on 26K next year, and 27.04K the year after. Note: with inflation at 4%. Yeah, right. How many people on here are seeing 4% wage inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 I should be getting a 3% increase in jan. *great* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yonmon Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 This is actually a VERY BEARISH report. OK, so the falls they predict are a bit lower than most of us HPC bears are predicting/hoping for, but note how long they project it will take for HPs to get back to their peak- 2010 for London, for instance. There will be some nice buying opportunities out there before the market turns bullish again. Patience is the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 And a lot more of this to come. The massive debt will be a key factor in house price falls. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/credit-and-lo...5&in_page_id=62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gtr London FTB Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 At a negligible rate. Yeah, right. How many people on here are seeing 4% wage inflation. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I got 16% last July and my wife got 12% from Jan 1 this year. We have never got less than double the inflation rate, and neither have the friends of mine who are professionals. TO be frank if I was offered 3% I would laugh and hand in my notice as it is basically a pay cut in real terms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 I got 16% last July and my wife got 12% from Jan 1 this year. We have never got less than double the inflation rate, and neither have the friends of mine who are professionals. TO be frank if I was offered 3% I would laugh and hand in my notice as it is basically a pay cut in real terms!<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Your very lucky, better keep it quite the Magician may be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zzg113 Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 I got 16% last July and my wife got 12% from Jan 1 this year. We have never got less than double the inflation rate, and neither have the friends of mine who are professionals. What line of work are you/your friends in GLFTB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gtr London FTB Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 What line of work are you/your friends in GLFTB?<{POST_SNAPBACK}> I'm in IT. My friends are in IT, Law & Accounting. We are all on performance based pay increases and unless you are under performing it is normal to get well above inflation increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gtr London FTB Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 Your very lucky, better keep it quite the Magician may be watching. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Nothing to do with luck, we just work hard that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yonmon Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 I'm in IT. My friends are in IT, Law & Accounting. We are all on performance based pay increases and unless you are under performing it is normal to get well above inflation increases.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> It's also normal for big chunks of the workforce in those sectors (IT and accountancy especially) to be culled every few years, which would tend to then depress the earnings of those surplus to requirements. If one of those culls happened again soon it could become a real bear market in London! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gtr London FTB Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 It's also normal for big chunks of the workforce in those sectors (IT and accountancy especially) to be culled every few years, which would tend to then depress the earnings of those surplus to requirements. If one of those culls happened again soon it could become a real bear market in London!<{POST_SNAPBACK}> This is true, but once again it tends to be poor performers who are made redundant. And in the cases where it happens to good people they will usually have little problem finding work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 Nothing to do with luck, we just work hard that's all.<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Its everything to do with luck. Millions of people work bloody hard and don't get rises like that because the industry they are in won't wear them. I know plenty of people in IT that have not had decent rises for years - in fact, the fall out from the dotcom thing is only really beginning to end now in some segments of the market. It just depends on which sector of a market you are in and whether that sector is booming. Its luck, not judgement. Anyway, in terms of how debt will affect house prices etc - its all to do with the majority of people - and most people (apart from bloody public servants) are lucky to get rises that match inflation. Many people have seen no real wage inflation for 20 years - I am talking about people like bus drivers, warehouse workers, lorry drivers, general admin staff. Admin jobs in offices have been paying 14k for donkey's years and they still are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gtr London FTB Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 Its everything to do with luck. Millions of people work bloody hard and don't get rises like that because the industry they are in won't wear them. I know plenty of people in IT that have not had decent rises for years - in fact, the fall out from the dotcom thing is only really beginning to end now in some segments of the market. These people in IT you are talking of are poor performers then. Nobody who is good at what they do and keeps their skills up to date is in this category - in my experience anyway. However, there are a lot of really crap people in IT and suppose this is who you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyMe Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 Gtr London FTB There are an awful lot of bad managers around too - but I bet their jobs won't be the first on the cull list when the outsourcing contract gets signed. It's the sort of axe that chops off the heads of the good, bad and the ugly, with maybe a few project guys left behind. The trigger point for such action seems to be largley dependant on what competitors do - look at the banks, once one does it they all get on the bandwagon. Same might be the case for legal and accountancy functions, a few leaders then the rest follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 If you have the increases you are claiming you are bucking the official IT figures that can be found on sites like www.cw360.com, www.namesfacesplaces.com, www.siliconvalley.com, www.contractoruk.com, wwwjobstats.com, etc, etc. Offically, IT workers have been seeing a DECREASE in year on year wages since 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gtr London FTB Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 Gtr London FTB There are an awful lot of bad managers around too - but I bet their jobs won't be the first on the cull list when the outsourcing contract gets signed. It's the sort of axe that chops off the heads of the good, bad and the ugly, with maybe a few project guys left behind. The trigger point for such action seems to be largley dependant on what competitors do - look at the banks, once one does it they all get on the bandwagon. Same might be the case for legal and accountancy functions, a few leaders then the rest follow. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> This is all true. The trick is to be supporting a vital system to the business where it would be very unlikely that they would make cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogbox Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 Its everything to do with luck. Millions of people work bloody hard and don't get rises like that because the industry they are in won't wear them. I know plenty of people in IT that have not had decent rises for years Luck is always the loosers refuge. We are all born to shit, f***, eat and earn. The decisions you make in life are in your hands. Some eat, some earn and some f*** more. I find most IT people have an in - built over - confidence thinking they have special skills because they help set up each of thier mates home computers. Most however, are nothing special. Many are totaly thick and forget the real world when it comes to programme design (think CSA and Passports systems). Stop winging and become self - employed in something useful. Example - home solar energy panel supplier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dicky Posted January 4, 2005 Author Share Posted January 4, 2005 I got 16% last July and my wife got 12% from Jan 1 this year. We have never got less than double the inflation rate, and neither have the friends of mine who are professionals. TO be frank if I was offered 3% I would laugh and hand in my notice as it is basically a pay cut in real terms!<{POST_SNAPBACK}> In 10 years time at 16% PA you'll be earning more than 440% of your current salary, unless you’re currently earning 25K then that’s possible but at 50-60K I'd say you were hav'in a laugh expecting it to last. Better start practicing writing notices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batman Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 A PROPERTY market 'rollercoaster' will see house prices in some areas plummet by £21,000 over the next three years, experts warned yesterday. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages/hou...page_id=57&ct=5 The more articles we see like this the greater the falls going to be. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I expect to see 6/7 years of consistent sustained price falls. There is no reason to only expect a short sharp downturn. The 'cash value' of losseswilldwarf anything seen before. I 'lost' £ 20k between 1989 & 1994. I expect average declines 2x, 3x that in the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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