headmelter

Northern Ireland

7,453 posts in this topic

House prices have jumped 48% in the last 12 months in the area where I live and there seems to be no stoppng the increase.
Out of curiosity I requested a valuation on my own house to be told by 3 estate agents :ph34r: that it wouldn't be done for a fortnight because they are so busy :rolleyes: .

I'm not sure where I would get information on average house prices here. does any one have any links?

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I am similarly interested. However finding the data is problematic. It isnt too hard to find numbers on asking prices which will indeed show some massive increases. BUT I can find almost nothing about actual selling prices. The tools the mainland guys use do not work for BT postcodes. Anecdotal evidence perhaps, but the best guide I am getting is from EA's when trying to enquire about properties - In my budget (140-180k), sale prices are as much as 60k above asking.

I am encouraged by your note about so many people getting valuations. I am hoping that the huge increases are going to prompt alot of people to be greedy and try and make money out of the boom. My logic is that if enough people do this, the market will flood and the demand at the low end will be insufficient to maintain the huge 'asking-selling' differential and we may return to some form of sanity. If not... my sums strongly support renting.

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the best i can find is the bbc guide -
[url="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/regions/html/region11.stm"]http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/region11.stm[/url]

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Thanks for the replies.
As an addendum I moved back to NI from the SE about 2 yrs ago and bought 5 months after returning.
Some of the houses I viewed then have come back on the market recently. I suspected the conditions were right for a hpc then and limited my budget to 140k some of the same properties at that price are now back on with asking prices of 190-200k. I also have a mate who is an estate agent and he tells me that most properties are going for between 5 & 15k over the asking price(he has no reason to lie). When I asked him what his honest opinion was he said at times he was as surprised as me at how much people are currently willing to pay but he felt the average mortgage was now well over 100k.

I think there are a number of points that are relevant to the NI market that we have not realised the effects of yet.

.most council properties are now in private hands and these were bought at very low prices which have fuelled rises over the last 4-5 yrs. There are very few of these left now and some are currently changing hands for betwen 80-130k.

.Water rates are coming.

.Rates increases are on the way with the new rating system, no matter what.

.There will definatley be job cuts in the public sector due to the amalgamation of health trusts and creation of the 7 'super' councils.

.well paid Security forces jobs are being phased out and there may well be job cuts in ancillary staff as army barracks are scaled back.

.FTB mortgages are now 80-140k, NI wages are historically lower than the rest of the UK, with IRs rising the true effect may not be seen for another 1-2 yrs when people start coming out of fixed deals(this also depends on how much IRs go up next year if it is 1%, as some analysts think, at best the market will cool and dip a little or...........we could see the start of a very serious price correction.

.Property market in Dublin finally seems to be slowing so the rest of the 26 counties should follow suit over coming months.

I don't want to seem to be a merchant of doom but things could go tits up in 2-3 yrs as the heavily subsidised public sector is reduced and there doesn't seem to be anything to replace it at present.

If anyone has a more optimistic outlook I would be very interested to hear it, at present I'm saving my cash until I see how things pan out early next year.

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[quote name='headmelter' post='486803' date='Nov 12 2006, 11:56 AM']
I also have a mate who is an estate agent and he tells me that most properties are going for between 5 & 15k over the asking price(he has no reason to lie). [/quote]

Which EA!? I cant find a property selling less than 20k over it's asking! Most of the properties are going for alot more! :o

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where are you looking talksalot?

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Belfast/Bangor... basically somewhere within reasonable commute of Belfast. We started our search at 180k (our budget) and have been down to 150k... not one of them has remained within budget :(

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I'm on the other side of Belfast....co Antrim. Most estate agents will say to budget between 5-15k above asking price. I've also bid on a few properties, against my better judgement, and come close usually around the 10 k mark.

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[quote name='headmelter' post='486965' date='Nov 12 2006, 03:52 PM']
I'm on the other side of Belfast....co Antrim. Most estate agents will say to budget between 5-15k above asking price. I've also bid on a few properties, against my better judgement, and come close usually around the 10 k mark.
[/quote]

I havent looked out your way... I was put under the impression that Antrim was boom town right now so thought it would have been worse than here. Might take a better look.

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Antrim is as you say 'allegedly' boomtown but there are still surrounding areas, if you don't mind living just out of 'civilisation', that are well within 40-45 mins drive to Belfast.
I think the market here is booming but could easily go the other way. Some ex council houses are on the market for as much as 130k most 'private' developments you are looking at 150-180k for a semi, 190-300k for detatched.
Personally I think it has gone boo-ga-loo with people 'panic' buying which could all end in tears. :blink:

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Your best way to keep a track of the prices is to 'save' a search in PropertyNews.com and then have it emailed to you. Then you should haver a historical record of the 'asking' prices when properties go on the market. One example I saw was a very nice SD house on Balmoral Ave which was on the market @ £595k. I assume that it went for much more than that. but lets say it did not. It 'sold' and is now on the market as a rental property for £1,200 per month. That is roughly a 2.2% return on your money, so someone has great faith in the South Belfast market. In laymans terms they will be paying £35k per year in interest but only getting £14k in rental income. It should be very interesting indeed if it all goes titsup.com

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[quote name='mmca22gr' post='487798' date='Nov 13 2006, 04:02 PM']
Your best way to keep a track of the prices is to 'save' a search in PropertyNews.com and then have it emailed to you. Then you should haver a historical record of the 'asking' prices when properties go on the market. One example I saw was a very nice SD house on Balmoral Ave which was on the market @ £595k. I assume that it went for much more than that. but lets say it did not. It 'sold' and is now on the market as a rental property for £1,200 per month. That is roughly a 2.2% return on your money, so someone has great faith in the South Belfast market. In laymans terms they will be paying £35k per year in interest but only getting £14k in rental income. It should be very interesting indeed if it all goes titsup.com
[/quote]

That is a very nice example. If I had 600k, I certainly wouldnt be sticking it into a property like that. No doubt this is the sort of person who has seen the jump in £1mil props in that area!

I can manage to make up over 5% interest on my limited savings, even if you only managed half that on the large lump, it brings you in £15k pa. Thus basically the mentioned purchase would need to be growing at upwards of 35k pa in order not to be a net loss.

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Thanks for the tip MMCA,

The story about S Bfast is interesting, the buyer is most certainly an optimist........or a fool! :lol:

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[quote name='headmelter' post='486803' date='Nov 12 2006, 11:56 AM']
Thanks for the replies.
As an addendum I moved back to NI from the SE about 2 yrs ago and bought 5 months after returning.
Some of the houses I viewed then have come back on the market recently. I suspected the conditions were right for a hpc then and limited my budget to 140k some of the same properties at that price are now back on with asking prices of 190-200k. I also have a mate who is an estate agent and he tells me that most properties are going for between 5 & 15k over the asking price(he has no reason to lie). When I asked him what his honest opinion was he said at times he was as surprised as me at how much people are currently willing to pay but he felt the average mortgage was now well over 100k.

I think there are a number of points that are relevant to the NI market that we have not realised the effects of yet.

.most council properties are now in private hands and these were bought at very low prices which have fuelled rises over the last 4-5 yrs. There are very few of these left now and some are currently changing hands for betwen 80-130k.

.Water rates are coming.

.Rates increases are on the way with the new rating system, no matter what.

.There will definatley be job cuts in the public sector due to the amalgamation of health trusts and creation of the 7 'super' councils.

.well paid Security forces jobs are being phased out and there may well be job cuts in ancillary staff as army barracks are scaled back.

.FTB mortgages are now 80-140k, NI wages are historically lower than the rest of the UK, with IRs rising the true effect may not be seen for another 1-2 yrs when people start coming out of fixed deals(this also depends on how much IRs go up next year if it is 1%, as some analysts think, at best the market will cool and dip a little or...........we could see the start of a very serious price correction.

.Property market in Dublin finally seems to be slowing so the rest of the 26 counties should follow suit over coming months.

I don't want to seem to be a merchant of doom but things could go tits up in 2-3 yrs as the heavily subsidised public sector is reduced and there doesn't seem to be anything to replace it at present.

If anyone has a more optimistic outlook I would be very interested to hear it, at present I'm saving my cash until I see how things pan out early next year.
[/quote]

An Excellent Synopsis - can't give you too much optimism apart from the small pop size here, so supply:demand ratios can either keep prices higher then necessary or with too much building...

but with regard to pop. size NI has the capacity to grow more than other UK Regions where immigration is concerned, but this is an emotive issue of course

PS - Your not T.Mc per chance? Edited by prophet-profit

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[attachment=4166:attachment]Hello prophet-profit,

To quote the immortal words of Hong kong Fooey "Could Be":huh:

There's an interesting article on the news blog page "THEY KEEP GOING UP" indicates prices in NI dipped last month.....Is the worm turning?

I'm definately keeping my savings wrapped up for another six months to see how things pan out.

p.s see you on saturday morning! ;)

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[quote name='headmelter' post='488181' date='Nov 14 2006, 01:23 AM']
[attachment=4166:attachment]Hello prophet-profit,

To quote the immortal words of Hong kong Fooey "Could Be":huh:

There's an interesting article on the news blog page "THEY KEEP GOING UP" indicates prices in NI dipped last month.....Is the worm turning?

I'm definately keeping my savings wrapped up for another six months to see how things pan out.

p.s see you on saturday morning! ;)
[/quote]
The prices in NI haven't dropped at all... just the rate of increase from 26% to 23%. I suggest you re read the article more carefully.

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It was late wishful thinking, I should pay more attention.

I'm still keeping my savings.

I see you are a "bull" I would be interested to hear why you think there is still growth left in the market.

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Anecdotal evidence I realise, but as a mid 20's, reasonably good earner, my friends and colleagues have transformed from potential buyers a year ago into 'cant even be bothered looking' now... Then again this is a well educated group... the ones panicing may not be so.

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Talksalot ,
I'm a little bit older than you and I'm just curious as to why your friends have stopped looking ... is it because prices are over inflated ?....lack of suitable property?....or they are just flying their kites?

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It is because we cant realistically afford to buy. In general we are mid to late 20's with honours degrees and postgraduate training so are well paid (mid £20k salaries). A year ago a couple would have afforded a relatively nice place in a nice area, but now the same money is pushing to get anything in a remotely good area. At the same time it is clear that we can rent a very similar property to we could buy for approx 40% of the mortgage cost... the only reason to buy now is if you are dead sure the prices will go up - we just dont believe that is going to continue as it currently is.

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anecdotal.

I went to view another house tonight in the Antrim area and was told by the vendor that the house had previously been sale agreed but they had to take it off the market as the house they were interested in had jumped £60,000 in a WEEK!
There could well be something in what taksalot says on the other hand I got the impression the vendor was downsizing and they could also have been looking to maximise their own equity.
This is the second property I have viewed in two weeks that has been sale agreed only to end up back on the market. Both properties were priced at 200k and currently have offers of 208k & 210k. I won't be bidding but I will keep an eye on them and maintain contact with the EA in order to judge what the final sale price might be.

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It is obviously very hard to survey matters given sale prices are unavailable to us. Just keeping an eye on templeton robinson's site (since it lists 'current offer') I come up with only a tiny fraction of results in the sub 180k region being for sale (approx 16% - the remainder are sale agreed). A greater population is that on property news which results in perhaps 26%. Looking at the actual prices on robinsons, the average offer is some 27k above asking which equates to 17% above asking.

Surprisingly a significant number of people believe that this growth will continue for the forseeable future and consider that NI will 'Do a Dublin'. Unsurprisingly, very very few can answer when asked where they believe the money will come from.

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Dublin is on the turn. I have also been keeping an eye on the market in Donegal which seems to have slowed over the last few months. Prices seemed to get a small boost when the planning laws changed in the summer but now seem to have stabilised with little obvious movement in sales.

I was contacted by the estate agent RE the last house I had viewed in Antrim and was told that it would most probably still be on the market in the SPRING. I asked why that was and was told the vendor had not realised his 'expected price' and was not likely too until the spring.
Bring on another .25% in Feb and he'll be lucky to realise 200k for it.

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I am having an arguement about this on MSE. Every last one on the NI board is convinced that houses will continue to go up at a significant rate and would rate anything else as about 0% probability. I am a physicist by trade so analysis is something I am good at and the sheeple are just too fixated on 'it always goes up' to listen. Some of these people genuinely think that their council estate house will be worth a million in about 10 years (that is where the current growth leads us afterall!).

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