eric pebble

Bill Gates warns another financial crisis is coming like the 2008 Great Recession

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11 minutes ago, Si1 said:

BTL sentiment does appear very strong here in Leeds, I've been party to 3 conversations in the past few months from amateur f#ckwit speculators seeking to make their fortune in properties.

 

Reminds me of 2005/6 again.

I do hope you are encouraging them.

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All these retail closures certainly make me feel feels that the UK is about to enter another "normal" recession.  There's usually one every decade.

I'm not expecting to see another event like 2007/8 in my lifetime with major banks becoming insolvent and cash machines hours from drying up.  The last one before that was the Great Depression in 1929, so it's more like a 1 in a 100 year event.

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12 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

The last one before that was the Great Depression in 1929, so it's more like a 1 in a 100 year event.

You may be talking too soon and roughly a decade before 1929 there was a massive recession/depression immediately in the aftermath of WWI (2007/8 could be a equivalent of that).

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2 minutes ago, chronyx said:

Why not? Nothing has changed since 2007. Except wages down, prices up, debt up.

banks less vulnerable - a big difference

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1 minute ago, anonguest said:

How so?

On various capital base measures, in my amateur understanding. This is good from HPC perspective as it means asset prices can be allowed to fall without requiring massive bailouts.

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1 minute ago, Si1 said:

On various capital base measures, in my amateur understanding. This is good from HPC perspective as it means asset prices can be allowed to fall without requiring massive bailouts.

 

Hmmm.  This might be good news then

Quote

Suddeutsche Zeitung has asked that Deutsche bank simulate what a “crisis state of affairs” would seem like, and what it will charge to comprehensive a “resolution”, i.e. wind-down, of its own funding banking division. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Si1 said:

On various capital base measures, in my amateur understanding. This is good from HPC perspective as it means asset prices can be allowed to fall without requiring massive bailouts.

 

I find that a bit hard to believe, given everything we have seen in most recent yers with still lunatic lending multiples, etc.

But.....assuming you are broadly right in what you say, just how big a margin do the banks have? By what percentage could they now, supposedly, be comfortable with seeing property prices fall?

Edited by anonguest

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4 minutes ago, anonguest said:

I find that a bit hard to believe, given everything we have seen in most recent yers with still lunatic lending multiples, etc.

But.....assuming you are broadly right in what you say, just how big a margin do the banks have? By what percentage could they now, supposedly, be comfortable with seeing property prices fall?

It's more about the size of deposits required - with Northern Rock's 125% mortgages you actually needed the house to INCREASE in price 25% just to cover the mortgage!  

In a world of 10-20% deposits the price can FALL 10-20% and the mortgage is still covered.

The Bank of England stress tests assume a 33% fall in house prices.  In 2017, for the first time since they were invented, all the UK banks passed.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/stress-testing/2017/stress-testing-the-uk-banking-system-2017-results

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30 minutes ago, Si1 said:

banks less vulnerable - a big difference

I agree - in spite of all our beliefs on here about lax lending. Just gone through the process to get a modest for size of house and my earnings mortgage.

Unbelievably onerous and I have nigh on perfect credit history - redeemed mortgage with same company The Woolwich last summer

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2 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

It's more about the size of deposits required - with Northern Rock's 125% mortgages you actually needed the house to INCREASE in price 25% just to cover the mortgage!  

In a world of 10-20% deposits the price can FALL 10-20% and the mortgage is still covered.

The Bank of England stress tests assume a 33% fall in house prices.  In 2017, for the first time since they were invented, all the UK banks passed.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/stress-testing/2017/stress-testing-the-uk-banking-system-2017-results

OK.  Sounds reassuring (he says rubbing his hands with mischievous schadenfreudian glee).

In parting though, it's fair to say that much (all?) of this newly acquired capital cushion has come via the taxpayer funded bailouts??  The banks have not actually put aside good aold fashioned profit they have earned through their 'bread and butter' business operations?

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3 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

I agree - in spite of all our beliefs on here about lax lending. Just gone through the process to get a modest for size of house and my earnings mortgage.

Unbelievably onerous and I have nigh on perfect credit history - redeemed mortgage with same company The Woolwich last summer

Just out of passing nosey curioisty, since you mention the process.....how far back did they want to see your financial records this time? Compared with the last time you applied for a mortgage?

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8 minutes ago, anonguest said:

OK.  Sounds reassuring (he says rubbing his hands with mischievous schadenfreudian glee).

In parting though, it's fair to say that much (all?) of this newly acquired capital cushion has come via the taxpayer funded bailouts??  The banks have not actually put aside good aold fashioned profit they have earned through their 'bread and butter' business operations?

I'd guess that QE (etc) played a big part in softening the banks' costs of achieving this... :(

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On 4/14/2018 at 7:25 PM, eric pebble said:

'It's hard to say when but this is a certainty': Bill Gates warns another financial crisis is coming like the 2008 Great Recession.

Well guys.......  It's a comin'.....  And what Gates seems to be saying is...  There's got to be a correction - and after that -- IF there is a correction [and I reckon that "correction" HAS TO BE property "prices".....] --- then things should get back to working properly again.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5614949/Bill-Gates-warns-financial-crisis-coming-like-2008-Great-Recession.html
 

Did Bill Gates predict the GFC?

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9 minutes ago, adarmo said:

Did Bill Gates predict the GFC?

Few people tried because they were accused of being witches.

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3 hours ago, anonguest said:

In parting though, it's fair to say that much (all?) of this newly acquired capital cushion has come via the taxpayer funded bailouts??  The banks have not actually put aside good old fashioned profit they have earned through their 'bread and butter' business operations?

Yes in the case of RBS, which is still majority State owned. 

Not directly in the case of other banks: it's more the case that State aid stopped them going bust, but the direct State aid has been paid back and they HAVE been putting aside some profits to build up capital.  However, their "bread and butter" business has been made a bit easier with schemes such as Funding for Lending etc.

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3 hours ago, anonguest said:

Just out of passing nosey curioisty, since you mention the process.....how far back did they want to see your financial records this time? Compared with the last time you applied for a mortgage?

5 years and all companies I have been associated with, in all cases I have never been a majority shareholder 

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On 4/14/2018 at 7:25 PM, eric pebble said:

'It's hard to say when but this is a certainty': Bill Gates warns another financial crisis is coming like the 2008 Great Recession.

 

LOl thanks for the insight gatey LOL 

 

This is news? 

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20 hours ago, scottbeard said:

All these retail closures certainly make me feel feels that the UK is about to enter another "normal" recession.  There's usually one every decade.

Nothing to do with on line shopping then - what a shit article 

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10 years of QE basically doing nothing other than re-capitalising the banks' duff balance sheets. 

As much as we are still sitting on trillion/quadrillions of funky derivatives, they aren't unwinding anytime soon, and we need an 'event' to trigger these things. I very much doubt Prezzo and Maplin closing down is a leading indicator of an impending doomsday.

Surely we need a 'boom' to go with the bust. Outside of the funny money in London the last decade certainly felt nothing like the one before it.

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On 4/14/2018 at 11:08 PM, jiltedjen said:

problem is when? 

every 10 or 11 years? so sometime this year or next? 

could the markets have a wobble like they did in 2015 and then Just carry on growthing?, or is the Dow going to keep falling this year until it capitulates in dramatic fashion? 

Housing now seems firmly sat just above proceed-able asking prices. being held up by increasingly fewer people and fewer transactions. 

is it different this time? have we reached a permanently high plateau? 

history would say that yes we are about to hit another recession. the old in our ranks will of lived through several already. 

personally I can see BTL going bust, and everyone loaded up with cheap car finance. the debt is massive. and the levels have continued to creep up year on year. 

what are the clear warning signs? what indicators are screaming ‘panic’? 

i don’t see the same ‘feel’ in the air as 2007, people don’t feel rich. job prospects are not great. there does not seem to be a collective mania in the air. pubs are closing all the time, the high street dies, your just as likely to see debt collection programs on TV as property prawn. 

if anything, apart from the stock markets and house prices, things seem to have gotten worse for the average person since 2008. much worse. the new norm seems to be increasingly worse living standards. 

The questions we don't know the answers to are always the ones we should be asking.

When? When it's long due.

DOW? Markets and other leading indicator monitoring currently on permanent notice.

Is it different this time? Famous last words.

Have we reached a developed world growth plateau? A theory suggest we have.

What are the clear warning signs? Asset bubbles and leading indicators; yield curve, GDP, markets, transportation, etc. LEI in the UK has been negative for some time. Asset bubbles in all major classes are apparent. The "panic" comes when the bubble has already burst so it's already too late.

Get out clause? Markets don't like to be predicted so may allude us yet.

 

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