Option5

First-time buyers 'at 11-year high'

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43043294

More first-time buyers took out mortgages in 2017 than in any year since the financial crisis.

There were 365,000 first-time buyers in the UK, the highest number since 2006 and an increase of 7.4% compared with 2016, UK Finance said.

Yet this growth is expected to cool in 2018, the lenders' trade body said. The buy-to-let market was also "less buoyant", it said.

Separate official data shows UK house prices rose by 5.2% in 2017.

The figures, from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), showed that the 4.8% rise in the price of properties bought by first-time buyers was a slower rise than elsewhere in the market.

The average first-time buyer taking out a mortgage was aged 30 and had an annual household income - either one individual or jointly as a couple - of £41,000, UK Finance said.

"Although the [mortgage] market remains competitive [for first-time buyers], there is no room for complacency, with weaker December figures consistent with our market forecast of subdued growth this year," said Paul Smee, head of mortgages at UK Finance.

The figures show that the average home mover was aged 39 and had an annual income of £55,000. However, the numbers of those moving dropped by 3% in 2017 compared with the previous year.

The number of new buy-to-let mortgages dropped by 17% year-on-year, while the number of landlords remortgaging was down by nearly 12%. Landlords have faced more stringent tax demands.

The average home in the UK costs £226,756, according to the ONS. This value rose faster than prices in general, as measured by inflation, in 2017.

Accountancy firm PwC said that the figures showed UK house prices had increased by 22% more than earnings between 2012 and 2017.

"This shows that house price growth has outpaced average earnings growth for the fifth consecutive year, further ratcheting up the affordability challenge," said Richard Snook, senior economist at PwC.

However, the picture is very mixed across the country.

London, where the average property still costs significantly more than elsewhere, at £484,173, saw the slowest annual house price growth of 2.5%, according to the ONS. This slowdown was showing some signs of shifting to the South East commuter belt, where house prices dropped by 0.5% in December compared with November.

Scotland saw the fastest year-on-year rise in prices, up 7.7%, taking the average house price to £149,000.

Another set of ONS data shows that rent paid by tenants in Britain to private landlords rose by 1.1% in the year to January 2018, down from a 1.2% annual rise the previous month.

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Is the increase in FTB and the drop in BTL correlated as many predicted here, oh so long ago?

Now the Buy Toileters are not outbidding ordinary home buyers they finally get a look in.

Unfortunately not a great time to be getting in for them but at least this could indicate a return to homes not investments.

 

Edited by Sawitcoming

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25 minutes ago, Sawitcoming said:

Are the two correlated as many predicted here, oh so long ago?

Now the Buy Toileters are not outbidding ordinary home buyers they finally get a look in.

Unfortunately not a great time to be getting in for them but at least this could indicate a correction in the market.

 

Presumably HTB has something to do with it.

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Great, now we can hoover up the over-priced dregs and prop up the insane prices just a little longer now the BTL scumbags have gorged to the point of bursting.

I'll pass for now, thanks..

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43 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said:

Not in London, where numbers have been going downhill since 2014

A first time buyer in North London would require lots of help to raise a deposit/capital......the job could not do that alone.........work alone will no longer get someone their own place, add to that the bottom rung would be wise to skip, so getting something better, something would plan on living in for longer would be a better move, freehold preferably....;)

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Pretty much everyone I know who is currently renting is making noises about buying. Berkshire and Hampshire regions. Mostly Reading. 

I am aware this is anecdotal McBearface.

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9 hours ago, adarmo said:

Pretty much everyone I know who is currently renting is making noises about buying. Berkshire and Hampshire regions. Mostly Reading. 

I am aware this is anecdotal McBearface.

I know someone who "outbid" the competing buyer to secure a house in Reading just a few days ago?!?

Im stunned. 

Edited by wsn03

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12 hours ago, ftb_fml said:

Great, now we can hoover up the over-priced dregs and prop up the insane prices just a little longer now the BTL scumbags have gorged to the point of bursting.

I'll pass for now, thanks..

Very wise. I have seen a frightening surge in prices over the past 18 months. Little (but nice) terraces near me followed this pattern: 

2007 155k, 2010 £135k, 2012 £155k, 2015 £155k, 2017/8 £215k. 

Also the disparity between something with 'farrow and ball' makeover (ie grey, blinds, crystal lights and crystal framed mirrors and wood burner) and a liveable home without the latest look is huge. FTB'ers being suckered in believing it costs £40k and 2 years work to paint a house and change some light fittings. Mentality of this town (all generations) is that it's a real status symbol to pay a decorator and have a gardener...so makeovers are expensive. 

New homes in particularly seem to be overpriced AND selling. Victorian terrace £215k but new equivalent (smaller footprint but modern layout and downstairs wc) are £295k. If the market rockets those won't go up in value for 15 years. And if (when) it falls there will be done shocks when people come to sell a 'no longer new' home. 

Feels very 'bubbly' around here (North Yorkshire...golden triangle). Definitely worth waiting. 

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9 hours ago, adarmo said:

Pretty much everyone I know who is currently renting is making noises about buying. Berkshire and Hampshire regions. Mostly Reading. 

I am aware this is anecdotal McBearface.

I have to say I never hear anyone in my circles (friends / family / colleagues) who ever talk about prices possibly crashing - quite the opposite, I know a few people who became FTBs last year. Reading this forum every day its easy to forget the way we see the market is not how the vast majority do. I think if we see YoY drops on the Nationwide/Halifax indexes or we get the hinted-at interest rate rises then maybe seeds of doubt will start to appear in the general public's mood - but while most people seem to agree prices are insane they just don't see prices falling as a possible outcome of that. I guess I have the advantage of being old enought to have lived through a crash and know it can happen.

Depressingly the first newspaper headline that caught my eye today as I queued up in Tescos this morning was the Express announcing house prices rising by £1000 a month. OK it's just the Express and nobody reads that rag, but people don't need to buy the paper, they just see those headlines around in the media and never delve any deeper.

 

 

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10 hours ago, adarmo said:

Pretty much everyone I know who is currently renting is making noises about buying. Berkshire and Hampshire regions. Mostly Reading. 

 

There's a big difference between talking about something and actually being able to do said something. Usually called a 10-20% deposit

 

Edited by maffo in oxford

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1 hour ago, Pop321 said:

Very wise. I have seen a frightening surge in prices over the past 18 months. Little (but nice) terraces near me followed this pattern: 

2007 155k, 2010 £135k, 2012 £155k, 2015 £155k, 2017/8 £215k. 

Also the disparity between something with 'farrow and ball' makeover (ie grey, blinds, crystal lights and crystal framed mirrors and wood burner) and a liveable home without the latest look is huge. FTB'ers being suckered in believing it costs £40k and 2 years work to paint a house and change some light fittings. Mentality of this town (all generations) is that it's a real status symbol to pay a decorator and have a gardener...so makeovers are expensive. 

New homes in particularly seem to be overpriced AND selling. Victorian terrace £215k but new equivalent (smaller footprint but modern layout and downstairs wc) are £295k. If the market rockets those won't go up in value for 15 years. And if (when) it falls there will be done shocks when people come to sell a 'no longer new' home. 

Feels very 'bubbly' around here (North Yorkshire...golden triangle). Definitely worth waiting. 

.....you are right it costs little to make a place staged to sell, certainly not £40k.......some people would prefer it done for them, they pay a high price......also new is not better, but somehow they get away with charging more for less.;)

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Well fortunately most first time buyers can't afford to buy anything beyond a half bedroomed flat above a kebab shop in vast swathes of the country at current prices so that in itself will contribute to prices dropping.

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20 hours ago, Option5 said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43043294

More first-time buyers took out mortgages in 2017 than in any year since the financial crisis.

There were 365,000 first-time buyers in the UK, the highest number since 2006 and an increase of 7.4% compared with 2016, UK Finance said.

 

Hmmm. Using 2006 to compare with isn't so relevant, 2006 was expensive, no doubt FTB numbers dropped in the 2007 madness, then 2008 to 2012/13 there would of been no/very few FTB's due to financial crisis and no lending.

I'd like to see them compare first time buyer numbers with 1995, 2000 etc.

Why the big difference between 2016 & 17?  did a load of Help to Buy newbuilds suddenly get finished?  Gawd help them.

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1 hour ago, wsn03 said:

I know someone who "outbid" the competing buyer to secure a house in Reading just a few days ago?!?

Im stunned. 

You're in good company. I guess there's a perception of opportunity here though. Stepping jobs market, cross rail. Blah blah.

Reading is slowly getting nicer though.

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1 hour ago, lostinessex said:

I have to say I never hear anyone in my circles (friends / family / colleagues) who ever talk about prices possibly crashing - quite the opposite, I know a few people who became FTBs last year. Reading this forum every day its easy to forget the way we see the market is not how the vast majority do. I think if we see YoY drops on the Nationwide/Halifax indexes or we get the hinted-at interest rate rises then maybe seeds of doubt will start to appear in the general public's mood - but while most people seem to agree prices are insane they just don't see prices falling as a possible outcome of that. I guess I have the advantage of being old enought to have lived through a crash and know it can happen.

Depressingly the first newspaper headline that caught my eye today as I queued up in Tescos this morning was the Express announcing house prices rising by £1000 a month. OK it's just the Express and nobody reads that rag, but people don't need to buy the paper, they just see those headlines around in the media and never delve any deeper.

 

 

A crash is what i wanted to happen for ten or more years. Eventually i figured that what I'd overlooked was the government's willingness to do virtually whatever it takes to stop that happening. I don't agree with that being a sensible strategy for the country but that 'in the long run prices go up' is so entrenched, at least in the south east, i just can't see the day when the government gets out of the way. 

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6 minutes ago, adarmo said:

You're in good company. I guess there's a perception of opportunity here though. Stepping jobs market, cross rail. Blah blah.

Reading is slowly getting nicer though.

"Stepping jobs market"?

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51 minutes ago, maffo in oxford said:

There's a big difference between talking about something and actually being able to do said something. Usually called a 10-20% deposit

 

 most of these people are chartered accountants. I'm sure this fast is not lost on them. 

With htb though you can get in for 5%. They're also not paying the stamp duty they would have paid last year*.

Cheaper rates really start at 15% deposit. 😇

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4 minutes ago, Si1 said:

"Stepping jobs market"?

Sorry, strong jobs market.

Sticky predictive text on my Samsung. Maybe someone's hacked it to mine some TwitCoin.

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8 minutes ago, adarmo said:

You're in good company. I guess there's a perception of opportunity here though. Stepping jobs market, cross rail. Blah blah.

Reading is slowly getting nicer though.

....perception?......is it the perception that more people moving there makes it nicer?....is it the new infrastructure availability making it nicer?.....is it the perception that greater job availability, easier to get to the jobs makes it nicer......or the perception that homes are still cheap a good place to get a BTL.....higher house prices makes it nicer?;)

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10 minutes ago, winkie said:

....perception?......is it the perception that more people moving there makes it nicer?....is it the new infrastructure availability making it nicer?.....is it the perception that greater job availability, easier to get to the jobs makes it nicer......or the perception that homes are still cheap a good place to get a BTL.....higher house prices makes it nicer?;)

 The centre is getting nicer in that it's getting nicer bars, shops, activities, entertainment and more generally to do. I guess that drives desirability.

The strong jobs market and investments in infrastructure underpin the perceived value, and the ability of people to pay what are imho very high prices and rents.

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14 minutes ago, adarmo said:

Sorry, strong jobs market.

Sticky predictive text on my Samsung. Maybe someone's hacked it to mine some TwitCoin.

No worries. Need to be more careful when texting your mother but not here :)

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Just now, adarmo said:

 The centre is getting nicer in that it's getting nicer bars, shops, activities, entertainment and more generally to do. I guess that drives desirability.

 

I'd say a similar story seems to be reflected in most urban centres, in the economic bounce following the credit crunch.

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