Sign in to follow this  
ItalianV6

Halifax +0.5%

Recommended Posts

logic:

prospective buyers have been holding off from buying whilst interest rates have stayed low and prices have stayed high.

now they are buying because interest rates have ticked up therefore prices will also tick up?

 

 

makes zero sense, but it doesn't need to, people are supposed to digest it and repeat it, without ever critically analysing the content

 

in my real world experience most people parrot verbatim what they are fed by the establishment media

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, lostinessex said:

Damn - mid-summer it genuinely looked like this index would be at 0 by the end of the year - and that might prove the landmark that would catch the general public's attention and start a bit of panic. The last few months just seem crazy - but this is now feeling like its going to be a long-drawn out affair - prices not rising enough to seem crazy but still rising higher than wages - it's a boiling the frog scenario now.

The crunch will come when the BTL brigade have to start doing their first post-S24 tax retuns - which will be January 2019 - and as that will only be a quarter of the changes it might not really sink home until the 2020 deadline.

This is why I hate property bubbles - its not like shares or Bitcoin - where it's your choice if you get involved - everyone directly or indirectly gets drawn into a housing bubble.

The British establishment have no intention of letting prices correct, they want to set them high and keep them there.

The also have no intention of the £ collapsing and being hung from lamp posts.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The British establishment have no intention of letting prices correct, they want to set them high and keep them there.

The also have no intention of the £ collapsing and being hung from lamp posts.

 

 

 

can they have both? technically the £ is completing a major correction and gearing up for next leg down. but the #vileBBC tells me that a weak pound is great because the FTSE goes up, and also it attracts foreigners to invest in London property, all making me better off apparently. Not sure why they would lie about anything ever.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, thewig said:

 

can they have both? technically the £ is completing a major correction and gearing up for next leg down. but the #vileBBC tells me that a weak pound is great because the FTSE goes up, and also it attracts foreigners to invest in London property, all making me better off apparently. Not sure why they would lie about anything ever.

 

I was under the impression that there was a global currency war going on, a race to the bottom to try and stir some inflation. Its that's true, we're winning

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Irritating recent bounce in the Halifax annual price change cancelled out the nice real price crash we were having but I expect it to resume soon.

0TpdgCQ.png

(Yes I am aware I have cherry picked where my trends have started)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, thewig said:

 

can they have both?.

 

No.

It didnt work in Zimbabwe and it wont work here.

 

We really are staring at a collapse in everything.

If anyone knows how best to protest onesself then let me know. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Become a repossessions specialist for Audi cars. They need good looking after. You should do well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, thewig said:

logic:

prospective buyers have been holding off from buying whilst interest rates have stayed low and prices have stayed high.

now they are buying because interest rates have ticked up therefore prices will also tick up?

 

 

makes zero sense, but it doesn't need to, people are supposed to digest it and repeat it, without ever critically analysing the content

 

in my real world experience most people parrot verbatim what they are fed by the establishment media

 

 

Oct 2003 the base rate was 3.5% and the Halifax £138k. Both increased until Aug 2007 when the base rate was 5.75% and the Halifax £200k. Base rate up 64% while Halifax up 45%. 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-base-rate-uk.php

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-halifax-national.php

It's the quick buy while you still can bubble mentality. In a normal world shouldn't prices fall back when recession hits, unemployment rises and rates start dropping?

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Oct 2003 the base rate was 3.5% and the Halifax £138k. Both increased until Aug 2007 when the base rate was 5.75% and the Halifax £200k. Base rate up 64% while Halifax up 45%.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-base-rate-uk.php

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-halifax-national.php

It's the quick buy while you still can bubble mentality. In a normal world shouldn't prices fall back when recession hits, unemployment rises and rates start dropping?

 

 

 

blimey. does that example work though, given you've picked the peak of a bubble and what happened immediately afterwards?

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, thewig said:

blimey. does that example work though, given you've picked the peak of a bubble and what happened immediately afterwards?

 

 

 

 

It was just to show that house prices can rise with rates. Prices didn't fall because rates increased, they fell because a recession hit and credit dried up.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, thewig said:

 

can they have both? technically the £ is completing a major correction and gearing up for next leg down. but the #vileBBC tells me that a weak pound is great because the FTSE goes up, and also it attracts foreigners to invest in London property, all making me better off apparently. Not sure why they would lie about anything ever.

 

The BBC have some how managed to forgot that a couple of years ago £1=$1. 60 was normal.  Now £1=1.40 would be considered a very strong pound.  My prediction is we will never see £1=$2 again.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It was just to show that house prices can rise with rates. Prices didn't fall because rates increased, they fell because a recession hit and credit dried up.

 

Some of the fixed rates are lower than they were 3 months ago, funded by the mafix 0% interest rate #TermFunding money.

 

If they dont stop they wil break the uK.

 

They wont stop

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It was just to show that house prices can rise with rates. Prices didn't fall because rates increased, they fell because a recession hit and credit dried up.

 

Rates haven't risen in any meaningful way. They've just rattled the cage to stir up some activity. Get in now before they rise further... (well, that's one theory)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The UK housing market is a very regional beast. To what and to where are Halifax exposed? North Western BTL? The lack of breakdown makes this data pretty meaningless to me.

I thought the Hometrack series was the one to watch for an idea of what is happening.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't forget that Carney recently said there is no housing bubble and interest rates don't really impact house prices.

He gave the official green light for the bubble to keep growing.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wake me up when TPTB lose control. Until then the movement is too slight. Im too impatient and watching this one play out is agony, but nobody sane would buy at these prices so there is just a feeling of powerlessness. I guess thats just what they want the masses to feel.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, LetsBuild said:

Irritating recent bounce in the Halifax annual price change cancelled out the nice real price crash we were having but I expect it to resume soon.

0TpdgCQ.png

(Yes I am aware I have cherry picked where my trends have started)

Nice graph. One comment. I know that Halifax have the cheek to rename their House Price Index a "house price GROWTH" measure - a Framing trick - but please don't join them in using the word "growth" as the title for the index? :(

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are living in 1984.

It's Orwellian- it really doesn't make sense out there. 

Doublethink. Newspeak.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.