Land registry UP again 0.4%

[Si1]

17 minutes ago, adarmo said:

Seems to be a quantity over quality issue with some of them. CountofNowt is cut from the same polyester. 

As opposed to linking a dodgy YouTube video from a c-grade talking head?

 

[Doner Kebab]

Christ. Some HPI w@nk fest news and they all come out.

 

[Venger]

17 minutes ago, adarmo said:

Agreed - it's like a ratchet. People who can't sell for what they think it's worth will just stay put. This is what happened around here in the GFC. Prices didn't really budge, people just stayed put. 

HPI forever can't work but nobody wants that really. I think static prices for the next fifty years would be fine, houses slowly becoming more and more affordable. This is imho preferable to an enormous crash (no catalysts or triggers for this since we'd need an increasing number of forced sellers) and the economic havoc that would cause. I'm not sure many people could stomach another bank bailout again. 

As much as I'd have loved to pay £300k for my place I still think we did OK. 12% off the initial asking price and it'd only been on the market for a few weeks. They were forced sellers (care home) and motivated to move quickly (we had noting to sell). 

If I had a pound for every time I'd said to myself "prices are nuts they're bound to crash now" I'd probably have so much money I wouldn't be on here. I personally think TPTB would rather inflate away the debt with low interest rates. Venger might be reading this though and give the whole 9 yards on how I have some evil plan for tenants to preserve my house value (doesn't understand real terms). 

Are you looking to buy?

Of course I'm going to read it.

Quote

 

The whole nine yards

Its origin is unknown and has been described by Yale University librarian Fred R. Shapiro as "the most prominent etymological riddle of our time"

 

Just sitting back for a while and watching the latest House Prices Can't Crash crew at work, on HPC forum - it's almost like you're all concerned about something.

Or, do you have our best interests at heart and want us to quit/give-up, or ideally buy.

S24 ratcheting along, and it only needs some sellers to come out needing/wanting to cash in on mad-gainz - although I do accept the bolded from your post.

News was full of doom, and the breakdown-squad were hard at it that 'They didn't know what they were doing'(all owners/buyers from whatever year/decade) - recounting tales of the HPI+ spreadsheets and that all buyers/owners innocent victims of media/sales-techniques that only they in their superiority could understand, all championing policy intervention.  

Could be different next time though, although trapped between the anti-HPCers and the HPC-virtue types ("I'm such a good person because I care") who believe buyers are incapable of making own decisions, and years of feeling sorry if if if if any HPC.   Could be we do buy at some point.  Can't decide which types wear me out the most.  Attrition.  Although it would be a big compromise and purchase <£200,000 in one of the cooler 2004-05 areas.   As for now, can wait it out a few more years.. unless those cooler areas were to pick up on HPI+.

Quote

 

2009 RK

I know several friends/acquaintances who have put houses up for sale over the last few months in the £500-800k region, who are expecting to have to wait 12 months + to sell. In one case they had an offer £50k under asking (which was I think £50k less than the agents recommended price anyway) and they rejected it. Another who put it on at what seemed a peak price to me, only to drop it by about £80k a few weeks later after little response and who has now decided not to sell (doesn't need to).

So, from what I've seen it appears to me (anecdotally) to be a mixed bag and where people aren't forced sellers they're just sitting tight. That tends to be in the better areas, in the less sought after areas I've seen quite a few fairly hefty price reductions over the last 12 months or so but still very few sales. So, I guess it's well worth going in low and seeing what response you get. But, from my recollection of the 90s crash, (and some on here don't share my recollection) the good properties in the prime areas, particulatly in the catchment areas of the top primary and secondary/grammar schools (Halebarns/Bowdon/Altrincham) kept their prices well, and in fact subsequently strongly outperformed many of the other localities over the next decade.

 

Go go QE/zirp/FLS/Term Funding/BTLer double down - on top of 2000-2007 which had already seen runaway housing financialisation extremes, for housing financialisation extreme 2.0.

[Scramz]

1 hour ago, adarmo said:

Agreed - it's like a ratchet. People who can't sell for what they think it's worth will just stay put. This is what happened around here in the GFC. Prices didn't really budge, people just stayed put. 

HPI forever can't work but nobody wants that really. I think static prices for the next fifty years would be fine, houses slowly becoming more and more affordable. This is imho preferable to an enormous crash (no catalysts or triggers for this since we'd need an increasing number of forced sellers) and the economic havoc that would cause. I'm not sure many people could stomach another bank bailout again. 

As much as I'd have loved to pay £300k for my place I still think we did OK. 12% off the initial asking price and it'd only been on the market for a few weeks. They were forced sellers (care home) and motivated to move quickly (we had noting to sell). 

If I had a pound for every time I'd said to myself "prices are nuts they're bound to crash now" I'd probably have so much money I wouldn't be on here. I personally think TPTB would rather inflate away the debt with low interest rates. Venger might be reading this though and give the whole 9 yards on how I have some evil plan for tenants to preserve my house value (doesn't understand real terms). 

Are you looking to buy?

7

Completely agree. I purchased my first home a few months back in the SE. If prices slowly drop over the next 5-10-15 years it will make no difference to me, I would have spent more on rent than I would have lost. Like I have spent the last 10 years paying rent to wait for a 'crash'. It was either a 'mortgage slave' or 'rent slave', I woke up and realised the more financial and mentally beneficial one of the two.

I am on here as I support HPC. I am surrounded by smug boomers who don't understand the position of FTB'ers of today. It's sad and one day (when someone pins the jonny) I don't want my kids to be stuck in this, frankly, crap situation.

[thewig]

2 hours ago, Scramz said:

I am starting to learn this. Even when you agree something is not credible and most likely a load of rubbish in agreement with them, they still turn their nose up at you because they 'know better', which is not justified in their track records. 

We are in here for the same purpose, HPC. You should be able to see stuff that goes against HPC as well as for, like the ONS figures you posted. I only said I read somewhere last year and was asked for it, found it, then I was bashed on it. I even said it wasn't credible in the slightest in agreement. I guess I need 25k more posts to converse with some people. Spin doctors everywhere.

These figures go gain HPC, the country needs HPC now, but it's not happening, yet!

trolling troll is trolling troll

[Barnsey]

Quote

Completely agree. I purchased my first home a few months back in the SE. If prices slowly drop over the next 5-10-15 years it will make no difference to me, I would have spent more on rent than I would have lost. Like I have spent the last 10 years paying rent to wait for a 'crash'. It was either a 'mortgage slave' or 'rent slave', I woke up and realised the more financial and mentally beneficial one of the two.

I am on here as I support HPC. I am surrounded by smug boomers who don't understand the position of FTB'ers of today. It's sad and one day (when someone pins the jonny) I don't want my kids to be stuck in this, frankly, crap situation.

The classic rent vs mortgage payments argument. As though we live in the present forever more, let's thank Carney and Yellen for that. But, what if prices do revert back to 2012 levels in the SE, and mortgage rates rise by a few %? I really hope you bought somewhere you can stay for a long time to come.

Maybe i'm being a bit harsh, but buying in the SE (which is now stagnating), along with some other areas, at arguably the peak of a cycle, with a possible recession around the corner, Government in crisis, Brexit, BTL sell-off  starting, Trump, China, rates going up and QE tightening, consumer spending plummeting to worst levels since 2008, and so on and so on, is a HUUUGE gamble. So many red flags out there, unprecedented in my adult life. I'm more than happy to wait it out for a couple years, and if as you predict little has happened by then, we will have to move geographically, like Venger, to an area that has not seen the mad speculative gains, which is exactly what they are. At no cost am I joining in the madness. I feel sorry for those sucked in by the mad bidding wars of boomers exchanging HPI gains with BTLers in search of 3% yields at any cost.

There is no real world justification whatsoever for seeing haggard 3 bed homes in working class areas of the SE go from £250k in 2012 to £480k today. The market didn't crash for long last time due to huge movement downwards in interest rates, FLS, HTB and awaiting emerging markets in the wings. None of these HPI supporting factors will likely present or effective when the next crisis hits.

There's a recent s**tstorm brewing out there, one that wasn't there for the past few years, the warning signs are clear to see, let's see how ALL of those factors influence the housing market over the next 2 years. If this gamble costs me another £24k in rent then so be it.

And your final point is complete bull, you've just contributed to the SE HPI frenzy by buying, pat yourself on the back. Another hypocritical low post count, recent bubble buyer member. Shock.

Edited November 14, 2017 by Barnsey

[Scramz]

15 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

The classic rent vs mortgage payments argument. As though we live in the present forever more, let's thank Carney and Yellen for that. But, what if prices do revert back to 2012 levels in the SE, and mortgage rates rise by a few %? I really hope you bought somewhere you can stay for a long time to come.

Maybe i'm being a bit harsh, but buying in the SE (which is now stagnating), along with some other areas, at arguably the peak of a cycle, with a possible recession around the corner, Government in crisis, Brexit, BTL sell-off  starting, Trump, China, rates going up and QE tightening, consumer spending plummeting to worst levels since 2008, and so on and so on, is a HUUUGE gamble. So many red flags out there, unprecedented in my adult life. I'm more than happy to wait it out for a couple years, and if as you predict little has happened by then, we will have to move geographically, like Venger, to an area that has not seen the mad speculative gains, which is exactly what they are. At no cost am I joining in the madness. I feel sorry for those sucked in by the mad bidding wars of boomers exchanging HPI gains with BTLers in search of 3% yields at any cost.

There is no real world justification whatsoever for seeing haggard 3 bed homes in working class areas of the SE go from £250k in 2012 to £480k today. The market didn't crash for long last time due to huge movement downwards in interest rates, FLS, HTB and awaiting emerging markets in the wings. None of these HPI supporting factors will likely present or effective when the next crisis hits.

There's a recent s**tstorm brewing out there, one that wasn't there for the past few years, the warning signs are clear to see, let's see how ALL of those factors influence the housing market over the next 2 years. If this gamble costs me another £24k in rent then so be it.

And your final point is complete bull, you've just contributed to the SE HPI frenzy by buying, pat yourself on the back. Another hypocritical low post count, recent bubble buyer member. Shock.

That is exactly the reason I went for a 3 bed for a couple with no kids. Can sit tight for years to come even if we pop out a few kids. Had no intention of putting myself in a position of needing to upsize to start a family. 

There is no justification for lots and lots of things being massively overpriced, but they just are.

But I you won't be gambling £24k, you will continue to sit until prices fall, which we never know if and when that will happen. If falls don't materialise you are gambling anything from £24k to infinity.  I got tired after spending over £100,000 on rent, which ties in with your 'contribution' statement. I have contributed £100k to someone else's mortgage, why not start contributing to my own mortgage, or am I wrong to possibly try and better my position or should I just continue to sit still complaining about it for the rest of my life, thinking what if.

 

[LetsBuild]

6 hours ago, rantnrave said:

Like it or not, the majority of indices this site monitors have, over the last three months, reported MoM and YoY rises. That is a fact.

Breaking the details down, London appears to be falling slightly, and the wider SE is stagnating. Prices elsewhere are either static or rising - offsetting the London falls. I doubt that situation is sustainable, but it is where we seem to be at right now.

What's the regional breakdown of this ONS release?

Don’t worry, I will be updating the Ripple thread this weekend with today’s result. I will be taking a special interest in the change to the predicted sales for ‘17 and the adjusted August results from the last report by region.

[Bland Unsight]

6 hours ago, Lavalas said:

We didn’t have a thread showing Land Reg data one whole hour after it had been released and I for one am glad that Mr Banks was on hand to be a dïck about it.

He's playing to his core competency. You have to respect that.

[Bland Unsight]

Once again the wonderful Mr Banks not digging under the headline figure...

The England report leads off with this figure, entitled "Annual price change for England and London over the past 5 years" (link)

The collapse in London sales volumes also quite striking.

(Same source)

That looks like a property market hitting the buffers. Not sure that a stamp duty holiday for first time buyers is going to turn it around.

Edited November 14, 2017 by Beary McBearface

[Bland Unsight]

Also, Mr Banks, thanks for adding the tag 'up' to your thread. Massively useful, and a top notch use of the tags.

[A third of everything]

I had a call today from an agent who says we should viewing 30-40k over our budget as the market is "stagnant" and they "don't have a queue of buyers or a flood of offers anymore"... none of this was prompted and he said even if we don't buy with them, aim high with any other agencies too

Quite appreciated the pep talk!

[Bland Unsight]

Still think one of the wisest things I've read on here was the assertion that house prices were going up "because they are going up". Once the prices escape fundamentals like demographic demand and rising real wages it's all just credit and speculation. The UK housing market has long been a boom-bust cycle. Nothing has changed in the last thirty years which would give us any reason to believe that that wasn't as true today as it was in 1989. Let's see where we are at once London has been falling for six months. Until that time talk about the Land Registry being "UP" for now is for the birds. It's evident that the market in London and the South East is fragile. Daft bullish threads here won't change that. Time will tell whether it will stall or fall, not trolly posters like Mr Banks taking glib potshots at the forum on which they have decided to post. 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Its a toss up to who sounds more desperate...us or them.

 

Given the number of blocked posters jumping on this, I'd say them, only marginally. Everyone...over yo the other thread that shows all these risre seem to equate to falls. Easily done when you revise the figures down every month.

 

Start at 100.

Rise of 1%: 101%

Revised to 1% drop:99%

Rise if 1%: 99.9%

Revised to fall of 1%: 98.9

Ad infinitum.

Corrupt establishment, desperately trying to maintain their place in a rapidly changing world.

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

P s. On the continent this week, so missing out on all the b.s 

[Gush]

2 hours ago, Scramz said:

Completely agree. I purchased my first home a few months back in the SE. If prices slowly drop over the next 5-10-15 years it will make no difference to me, I would have spent more on rent than I would have lost. Like I have spent the last 10 years paying rent to wait for a 'crash'. It was either a 'mortgage slave' or 'rent slave', I woke up and realised the more financial and mentally beneficial one of the two.

I am on here as I support HPC. I am surrounded by smug boomers who don't understand the position of FTB'ers of today. It's sad and one day (when someone pins the jonny) I don't want my kids to be stuck in this, frankly, crap situation.

Spending 100k for last 10 years would just add up to the interest payment on the 300k  mortgage at 3% and associated maintenance cost(insurance, service charges). Don't worry about your landlord mortgage it has not reduced by your rent income. 

Not buying during 2010-2012 is a mistake only in hindsight, buying now thinking price were and are rising so will also rise in future, with so many red flags around is f***ING disaster. Having said that buying for any other reason is personal and is one's own decision which I respect.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Some crazy bloke on twitter posting he's been blocked on here for pointing out house prices are rising...comedy gold

[The Moderators]

28 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Some crazy bloke on twitter posting he's been blocked on here for pointing out house prices are rising...comedy gold

He certainly has been blocked and not for the first time. This individual is determined to use the housepricecrash forum to talk up house prices. We have shut down a number of his alter egos but we were slow to identify this one. No doubt he will be back and hopefully we will identify him quicker next time.

In the meantime the publicity he's giving us on Twitter will serve to bolster our membership.

[Scramz]

1 hour ago, Gush said:

Spending 100k for last 10 years would just add up to the interest payment on the 300k  mortgage at 3% and associated maintenance cost(insurance, service charges). Don't worry about your landlord mortgage it has not reduced by your rent income. 

Not buying during 2010-2012 is a mistake only in hindsight, buying now thinking price were and are rising so will also rise in future, with so many red flags around is f***ING disaster. Having said that buying for any other reason is personal and is one's own decision which I respect.

Most mortgage deals within the deal period, regarding monthly payments on average 50% comes off balance 50% comes off interest. After the deal period, that no one does as they remortgage, it flips the 90-95% of payment comes off interest and a tiny amount off balance. But as state everyone remortgages to deals. 

Effectively wiping atleast £50k off his balance. 

You are right on personal situations, I got to the point I would rather personally lose the money to a reducing market rather than into a LL mortgage. Atleast in the market there is a chance of not losing it if conditions are right.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

1 hour ago, The Moderators said:

He certainly has been blocked and not for the first time. This individual is determined to use the housepricecrash forum to talk up house prices. We have shut down a number of his alter egos but we were slow to identify this one. No doubt he will be back and hopefully we will identify him quicker next time.

In the meantime the publicity he's giving us on Twitter will serve to bolster our membership.

I've blocked him on twitter, his post was too disparaging to make it a genuine plea for help. Thanks for confirming.

[Bland Unsight]

2 hours ago, willie said:

Mr Banks only ever talked about the members on here in disparaging terms - so what is the point of him posting here if that is the case.  I find it pathetic that he winds us up and then goes and whines on twitter to complain about us.

He is a real solid gold muppet. First time I'd had a troll contact me on the Personal Messenger in order to assure me that he wasn't a troll.

 

I love the idea that HPC posters need reminding that house prices have been going up (or are indeed in denial about house prices going up).

One of the things that I find most bizarre about the Mr Banks style trolls is the way in which the reduce the entire point and purpose of the forum to calling the top, or indeed predicting crashes. I guess he favours a Ronseal inspired method of interpreting a complex text. He probably thinks that Shakespeare's Hamlet is about small settlement which, when its boundaries are laid out on a map, is redolent of a cigarillo.

 

Edited November 14, 2017 by Beary McBearface

[Bland Unsight]

My fondest memory of the Mr Banks persona will be his pitch for getting a buy-to-let in Durham:

 

[Neverwhere]

3 hours ago, Beary McBearface said:

Also, Mr Banks, thanks for adding the tag 'up' to your thread. Massively useful, and a top notch use of the tags.

 

[Parkwell]

If people had stopped buying houses then prices would have come down. But of course there was this magic thing called credit. And the bank wanted you to have more and more out of the goodness of their hearts. To make all your dreams come true.

It’s no wonder the indices are still crawling upwards. Transactions are falling fast. People aren’t moving. The market is freezing up. Most buyers have higher than average incomes and the rest are getting dubious ‘help’ from credit schemes and part ownership scams. The stats are reflecting a broken market.

The bubble is close to popping. Will be interesting to see what they throw at it in the budget. The cowards.

[Venger]

10 hours ago, willie said:

Mr Banks only ever talked about the members on here in disparaging terms - so what is the point of him posting here if that is the case.  I find it pathetic that he winds us up and then goes and whines on twitter to complain about us.

It's a clear 'tell'. 

Quote

Bland Unsight:  The argument might seem a little @rse about face, but I'd argue that if something a troll said was "worth thinking about" then they weren't a troll.

Where does this bonkers troll analysis lead me?

To the conclusion that intentions are largely irrelevant. It's about the ideas, the evidence and the conduct.

Anybody who is civil and offers opinions founded on evidence can never be fairly called a troll.

Those who knock/dig at the forum / other members - low post counters (how many times recently a 2017 member has been claiming to have been reading the forum for 10+ years lol).  

When "difference of opinion" is often so basic... "People will just sit tight" / "Gov won't let it happen" / "Not building enough homes" / "BoE/Carney doesn't want a HPC on his watch / Core Voters / Can't have HPC for bank collapse

I get that every day from all other areas outside of HPC.   Yes it's okay to raise it from time to time and we can once again reassess or views about it - but it's questionable when it's same people pushing it time over, sort of as their cause.

Although our forum (notice the 'our' - one tell that makes me suspicious is those who come on 'this forum'/'this place' and then launch into hpc being forever wrong / echo chamber / last place you can expect market views is from those who have spent so many years renting vs HPI++++ .... 'but I want hpc more than anyone honest')... is the main place I also get called up on "Venger doesn't allow difference of opinion."   

When you then look at the positions of the few who snipe that way (when there are robust and useful exchanges of different opinion) , it's almost always those who hold to 'people are programmed and not responsible even if they pay £750,000 for a house.. just doing what they're programmed to do" / people I later find are eager to BTL (hello monkeyprojects) / and a couple of posters who always come in with the same thing, time and time and time and time again; 'You're wishing misery and recession on people just so you can get a house cheaper" (and these guys housing super-wealthy HPI and big inheritors).   

Quote

 

Church:    Okay! We're gonna send over our medic! Now what do we get!?
Simmons: You?! You're surrendering! You don't get anything except humiliation and ridicule!
Tucker:   We've already got that! What else do you have!?

-Red vs Blue