HousePrice Crashers who gave up

[Electricity]

1 hour ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

How many women earn a full time salary though? Many women in the 30-40 bracket are mums, and work part time. I dont know of any mums in my 20 or so family group who work full time. Not saying that represents all, but a good proportion.

 

There are all sorts of buyers everything from single income to dual income to those who have big windfall gifts/Inheritances

My guess is in expensive parts of the country eg zone 2 London where terrace houses go for £1-3 million most the buyers are existing homeowners (or their kids) who have had massive HPI gains. In fact you can probably say that about almost all of London now not just z2

Existing wealth circulating around is a much bigger part of the picture than most people realise.

As I keep saying some £200 billion annually is gifted/inherited. That is enough to pay for 1 million homes. Now clearly most of it doesn't go into housing but perhaps two thirds do.

Everyone I know who has been gifted wealth or got Inheritences either bought a house or upgraded their house or bought a bigger house with their windfalls.

[Calcutta]

41 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I think it's either the denial or the bargaining phase, or maybe a bit of both

Whatever it is it's f'ing good to see. How desparate must they be to think trolling this place is going to help their miserable little cause?

They've been conned, sucked in and spat out by a system that despises them as much as they despise the tenants they've milked, the families they've denied a home to and the immigrants they've abused. F'em. I just hope they have the decency to kill themselves in private instead of wasting decent people's time throwing themselves in front of trains.

[Digsby]

32 minutes ago, Grab_Some_Popcorn said:

Why 2017? Did you read a certain age?

44

[Funn3r]

3 hours ago, zugzwang said:

The Bank of Mum and Dad has been similiarly duped. 

To me it was always about shutting down this bank. If you're an elite and you want to stay that way you need control, and it's a lot harder to control people who actually own their homes. So much easier when people have to run to stay still, who have to work like crazy to keep a roof over their heads. They do what they are told or else.

[thewig]

43 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Woohoo! Second steppers!

You are Kirsty Alsop aicmfp. Chin chin.

or in the glutton's case: chin chin. chin chin chin chin.

 

[Si1]

4 minutes ago, thewig said:

or in the glutton's case: chin chin. chin chin chin chin.

 

Moaaaarrr houses!

[NuBrit]

I bought in 2011 after a 60% decline but I live in Northern Ireland and we had a very real crash.

Lived in London for years before that. Thought prices at the time were nuts, but they have went far and above what I thought they ever could since. I think up until now there were a lot of tailwinds that pumped property (Chinese, oil rich buyers, QE, low interest rates, London economy improvement, Help To Buy). All these props are now gone or going.

I am 90% sure now that London property will be down by at least 10% come this time next year.

[Bland Unsight]

6 hours ago, thewig said:

Trolly troll is trolly troll.

I'm trying to remember if RushRoad started banging on about inherited wealth. I really think this may be the same person back in a new guise, only now he's read page 98 of Vicker's Work in Essex County.

 

[newgi]

Whatever happened to Financial Planner or Happy Bunny or whatever he changed his name to?  There was another nutter, Van the Man I think, who was boasting about jumping out of the housing market and then had to sit an watch prices race away from him for the next five years.

Renting is dead money unless CountofNowhere is eventually correct - do you feel lucky?

[Bland Unsight]

4 minutes ago, newgi said:

Renting is dead money unless CountofNowhere is eventually correct - do you feel lucky?

We seem to have lots of new posters who think there's no prospect of a crash. I'm thrilled by this new development. Slightly curious as to what drew them to a forum called housepricecrash.co.uk but not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. 

[longgone]

anyone who did not buy between 2008 and 2012 is looking at a loss unless we get a massive crash. 

anyone who bought from 2013-2016 and has not already sold up could be in big trouble. 

tried to buy to flip from 2012 and got pipped by property developers on every one , corrupt the whole lot. 

 

 

[Electricity]

Prices are expensive is not the same as prices are unaffordable. I believe prices are indeed expensive very expensive in London but somehow they seem to be sustainable by the fact that the city has sustained these prices for years now.

Like I said I can't afford a £2-3m terrace in zone 2 I perhaps could have 20 years ago when they were £200-300k but definitely not now.

I don't know anyone who could afford a £2-3m house. Doesn't mean these people don't exist plenty have been sold to established that there is a market for them at these prices.

The missing bit in the jigsaw is inherited and gifted wealth. When I look at just income these super expensive zone 2 prices seem absurd but when I realises there was £200 billion or so in annual gifts/Inheritences things start to fit into place.

£200 billion annual is enough to buy a million homes at £200k a home. That is a truly astonishing sum of money. A factor I wasn't  much aware of a decade ago.

As house prices go up so do gifts and Inheritances it's how higher and higher prices seem to have happened for 25 years straight.

[Electricity]

4 minutes ago, Beary McBearface said:

We seem to have lots of new posters who think there's no prospect of a crash. I'm thrilled by this new development. Slightly curious as to what drew them to a forum called housepricecrash.co.uk but not going to look a gift horse in the mouth. 

 

Oh I think a London correction is likely perhaps 10% off over the next year or two. Perhaps half of that 10% off has already happened. The lower end BTL type properties here in z2 are down 5-10% already

I just don't see a 50% crash don't shoot me for that. I wouldn't mind a 50% crash if that happened I could actually afford the home I want and upgrade from my flat. I just don't see it as I realise now that there are so many people much more wealthy than I am. Even plenty who earn less but just have more family help and generational Inheritances behind them

I think outside the SE a correction is less likely. Parts of the north and midlands didn't move at all over the decade so they are down 30% in real terms already and are looking cheap. Eg parts of Birmingham you can get a 3 bes house for 120k which is less than reinstatement value!

[DabHand]

Joined Nov 2005.

Rented since for ever. Was cheap as shared big house with another couple. It's ok if you get along but then missus got pregnant and it was time to do the thing, as renting was not cheaper and l had a deposit that seemed to either earn nothing or be put at risk if invested. Not getting any younger etc.

Bought a place after about a year of looking in 2014, ended up cheaper in bills, CT and monthly payments than renting on our own. Big garden, pleasant area with good neighbours.

I am glad l bought overall. If l hadn't had a kid and missus l would have likely moved country before buying in the UK but that's a different timeline l don't live in.

I have other obsessions in my life now instead of HPC. l hope something happens to change the status quo, although my concerns are more along the lines of what sort of education and what sort of employment will my child have when they grow up. Frankly l'll be happy for them to get the fook out of dodge when they can and equip them accordingly.

[Si1]

31 minutes ago, newgi said:

 

Renting is dead money unless CountofNowhere is eventually correct - do you feel lucky?

... Or unless you can do maths. But hey why let numeracy get in the way of a sh1te argument?

[thewig]

40 minutes ago, Beary McBearface said:

I'm trying to remember if RushRoad started banging on about inherited wealth. I really think this may be the same person back in a new guise, only now he's read page 98 of Vicker's Work in Essex County.

 

Good references! Totally got them both. Totally!

Yeah, I got them alright. 

 

Ok I didn't get them. Not at all.

 

But did you see the football on Saturday? Footy eh! Cor, what a goal eh! Offside? Pah. Rubbish ref, you're rubbish! I bloody LOVE football I do. 

[Ah-so]

7 hours ago, Electricity said:

From 2006-2010 I was a believer in a crash and it looked like I was a genius who predicted the global crash but in hindsight it was pure luck, I gave up by 2012 and I am glad I did. Prices in London would need to fall 40% just to get back to 2012 levels and I dont see such a fall happening. Even if prices fell 50% now it was still wise buying in 2012

 

Prices have not doubled in London since 2012. If prices fell 50% they would go back to 2005 levels or earlier. 

Remember, a 50% rise is a very different thing to a 50% fall. 

[newgi]

11 minutes ago, Si1 said:

... Or unless you can do maths. But hey why let numeracy get in the way of a sh1te argument?

Looking forward to seeing the numeracy which shows that paying a mortgage on a place rather than rent for 25 years is a worse deal (even if there is a crash - unless you find the sweet spot and buy at the bottom).

[Bland Unsight]

36 minutes ago, newgi said:

Looking forward to seeing the numeracy which shows that paying a mortgage on a place rather than rent for 25 years is a worse deal (even if there is a crash - unless you find the sweet spot and buy at the bottom).

Has somebody put the forum in a time machine and sent it back 2003? Is this really somebody whose hot take on the last ten years is "renting is dead money"?

Edited September 26, 2017 by Beary McBearface

[Bland Unsight]

45 minutes ago, thewig said:

Ok I didn't get them. Not at all.

It was a really lame link by me, so apologies. There's a line of dialogue in the clip about "inherited wealth" and a bit of googling revealed that the dialogue put in the mouth of the (obviously) fictional character refers to a real book.

[Electricity]

1 hour ago, Ah-so said:

Prices have not doubled in London since 2012. If prices fell 50% they would go back to 2005 levels or earlier. 

Remember, a 50% rise is a very different thing to a 50% fall. 

 

I was thinking about inner London which in my area is up 75.4% compared to mid 2012 according to LR data

So we need a 43% crash to get back to mid 2012 levels here in inner east London

Also during the last 5 years I have paid closer to 2.5% interest rater than 5% rent so saved over £15,000 annually on rent being lower than mortgage interest. If you take the lower mortgage payments vs rent payments I would need prices to fall even further to cover that

Simply put prices would have to drop by about 55% today for not buying in 2012 and having continued to rent to have made sense for me

By 2022 (in five years time) prices would need to be down more than 70% from today price to make buying in 2012 a bad decision. Again due to paying soon less than 2% interest on a much lower 2012 price purchase vs paying 5% rent on today's value in rent to a landlord.

Each year that prices don't crash, they need to crash harder to cover the higher rent payments vs low interest rate mortgage payments.

I had this discussion before with someone. If a typical BTL (nationwide) is 6% yield and a mortgage is 2% interest then over a five year period prices need to crash 20% for a renter just to break even. If prices crash 19% renting would have been the worse choice. Low interest rates provide some degree of house price crash insurance

[Si1]

6 hours ago, newgi said:

Looking forward to seeing the numeracy which shows that paying a mortgage on a place rather than rent for 25 years is a worse deal (even if there is a crash - unless you find the sweet spot and buy at the bottom).

I couldn't be bothered. It's to do with asset classes and long words like opportunity cost and dillapidation. It involves decimal points so might confuse you.

[Guest]

9 hours ago, Digsby said:

44

Had you set that as the age you'd buy regardless? I'm 4 years behind you agewise... Feel like I'll buy in 2019 so long as prices don't rise again.

[OzzMosiz]

interesting to see everyone's different perspectives on this. I think house prices are absurd, even though me and the missus sold last year and bought a bigger house - with a bigger mortgage (a real run-down place inside that has now had walls knocked out and been replastered/decorated etc). We are lucky that we have around 50% equity but I do worry about my lad, that's why I have an ISA running for him so he has some savings to get himself a kickstart when he is older. No doubt the wife and I will downsize when he is older and gift him some money for his own place.

 

 

[Ah-so]

9 hours ago, newgi said:

Whatever happened to Financial Planner or Happy Bunny or whatever he changed his name to?  There was another nutter, Van the Man I think, who was boasting about jumping out of the housing market and then had to sit an watch prices race away from him for the next five years.

Renting is dead money unless CountofNowhere is eventually correct - do you feel lucky?

As a new member, you have a remarkably good memory of old members. Did you lurk for a decade before joining just to then make posts that can basically be summarised as "prices always go up in the long run"?